Posted by KC Loh > Oct 9, 2013 04:36 PM | Report Abuse X
by month end 2.70 already BsB! LOL

sorry i meant mid month! LOL

and if not careful, can surge 2.80 before the month is out!

say bye-bye to your silly sale of 2.62 LOL

by month end 2.70 already BsB! LOL

all you have to offer is conjectures only? go play with lego! LOL

anymore? :)

oh, another recycle repeat! LOL

we wont go to answer everyone's opinion right? as said, back to the fundamentals, boy! LOL

are you arguing with bloggers? LOL

buyers are increasing at 2.66 BsB! faster! faster! shout more! LOL

anymore recycle news? :)

repeat! LOL

aik repeat again about swamy? looks like you have not only short memory but really absent minded, BsB! LOL

ok la, leave you alone. let you recollect your thoughts and face. you have already shown you know nothing about this counter but recycling negative news in the hope to recoup your sold AA shares!!LOL.

all the best in your bond trading! LOL

looks like job is done. he has nothing else on AA. now talking about market cycles only! remember, in stock market, what goes down, must come up! really ignoramus! LOL

LOL..... my my! our own bond market expert! LOL

Posted by BullBear > Oct 9, 2013 03:05 PM | Report Abuse
Folks, foreigners trimmed their holdings of Malaysian government bonds for a fourth straight month in August, according to data from Malaysia's central bank.
Can the rally continue? Heheheheheheh!!

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oic, he is not talking about AA for a while now. he is into bonds market! LOL

personally i believe AA has the experience which Lion air (especially) tries to imitate! but the new boy in international market may have already over-commit in its very first step by going on a ridiculous nasi padang spree (according to TF!)

AA has gotten into markets with their own profitable and cost-effective measures whereas the rest of the copycats i believe are pretty clueless (just like you too BsB :)). I see good progression with AA's plan and the ability to cut loss if they are on losing side of business as proven in the Japanese venture with ANA! bodes well for long term investors of AA. I cannot see other LCCs in this region doing the same.

Now you understand why AA, in the span of 10 years, have risen to the the WORLD'S leading LCC, even beating Southwest Airlines at that?

Soon there will be overcapacity of budget carriers also! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

is there a shooting range nearby your place BsB? looks like you expert main tembak only! LOL

conjecture again. how to answer? hahahahahahahaha

i see AA doing the boom and Malindo doing the bust dance! LOL

you're worries? i see shortage if TF wants to increase capacity in Indonesia, Thailand and India. get ready to console Malindo when it goes under administration in this boom and bust cyclical industry! hahahahahaha

The battle for supermacy amongst Malaysian airlines - HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

but we are not talking about MAHB in this thread. are you alright? you are getting donkey dave's disease already going everywhere with five-foot peddler stories! LOL

ticket fares is from the yield factors! also already mentioned! temporal flux. just wait till AA secures back market shares from MAS, not Malindo!

you wouldn't understand! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

but so is 2014 growth according to IATA ("surging growth" according to them). read up! LOL

hence again the terminology so befitting you: ignoramus! LOL

excellent, because again you are not talking about LCC, but taking the full carrier as well. Despite bird flu and whatever plagues previously, the world is getting globalized with aviation improvements leading the way. more business to come since you already said budget airlines with large orders seem to be aware of the challenges ahead! all with the possible exception of Kirana of Lion Air! LOL

LOL

i think must be difficult that 2.62 and below could possibly be a distant memory soon! LOL

you can choose whichever one or even both of the definition! both suits you to the T! LOL

definition of ignoramus:

ig·no·ra·mus
ˌignəˈrāməs,-ˈraməs/
noun
1.
an ignorant or stupid person.

Posted by BullBear > Oct 9, 2013 02:33 PM | Report Abuse

Folks, the upshot of the combination of factors is lower load factors and reduced yields… That in turn implies damage to airlines’ bottom lines in what is now an intensely competitive market, with low-cost airlines, Gulf carriers and Chinese airlines all vying for larger shares of markets that were historically the territory of the region’s flag carriers.

How? A small leak can sink a GREAT ship! Hahahahahahahah!!

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this was answered! BsB at his ignoramus best! LOL

never mind, post more BsB. then you can learn why AA is climbing again despite all your negative perspective. And oh yeah, congratulations on selling AA at 2.62, if that were ever true! LOL

that's nothing to do with memories. its a temporal flux in the overall scheme. AA is strengthening its base, even if 20 new airlines are formed.

you really have no idea what you are talking/posting about! BsB! LOL

Please remember AA is taking delivery of only 100 aircrafts from its supposed 400+ orders, whereas Lion Air is coming in with 450 planes! do your maths BsB! :)

Posted by BullBear > Oct 9, 2013 02:16 PM | Report Abuse

Folks, record aircraft deliveries are under way this year despite the slow growth in traffic. Overall, Asia Pacific airlines have 520 aircraft on firm order for delivery over the next three years, of which 120 are widebodies, with many of the new deliveries additional rather than replacement aircraft. This equates to 15 aircraft deliveries per month—a rate that could more than double when leased additions are factored in.

So how? Hahahahahahahahah!!

Seem you are talking to investors of Lion Air! LOL

but a china creditor just lend AA. yes, so i think the rally will continue for AA not Lion Air :) please read up more BsB! :)

Posted by yonex > Oct 7, 2013 12:54 PM | Report Abuse

AirAsia Inks US$1b Aircraft Financing Deal

AirAsia and China’s ICBC Financial Leasing Company have signed a memorandum of agreement for aircraft financing facilities worth US$1 billion, propelling it to be the largest financial cooperation deal between the two countries to date. ICBC will provide AirAsia with competitive financial facilities to purchase no less than 10 Airbus A320s for its operational needs, in the form of finance lease, sale and leaseback or commercial loans. The leased aircraft included in the agreement will comprise of A320s assembled by Airbus (Tianjin) Final Assembly Company. Since 2011, AirAsia has entered into such agreements for 10 A320s valued at US$800 million with ICBC as well as ICBC overseas subsidiary. As of September 2013, AirAsia’s fleet includes 134 Airbus A320s.

So, how? BB, How? BB ahhhhhhhhh, How ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh???

since bullsh*tbear makes flight cancellation his daily staple, lets reflect it on the overall pic. As mentioned before, loading factor is the key to study how an airline is doing.

"According to the company’s quarterly report, Indonesia AirAsia has increased its capacity by 32 percent in the second quarter this year to 2.44 million people from 1.85 million in the same period last year.

The number of passengers the airline carried rose 33 percent to 1.92 million people in the second quarter."

http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/airasia-wont-be-muscled-out-by-indonesias-lion-air-ceo/

Budget airlines in the region are expected to flourish this year amid the global economic downturn. A recent report by the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) predicts that budget airlines will experience increases in both passenger traffic and earnings this year compared to traditional airlines.

“Stormy conditions in 2008 have already helped the low-cost segment gain a larger share of global aviation,” the CAPA report stated. “Now predicted tougher economic conditions and lower fuel prices will give the sector a major advantage in 2009.”

The launching of a price war between these airlines reflect their optimism in their performance this year and their confidence that the current economic climate will drive travelers towards their business.

http://www.asiaecon.org/special_articles/read_sp/12554

a bit dated, but what the heck! LOL

Summary : BUY AIRASIA!

somebody joked, you know why Lion Air has to have massive orders? because they need to replace a lot of their planes parked in water! not funny to some, but hell, it is funny to me! LOL

here is about lion air 12 year financing! read and do the calculations. I think lion air gonna sell its planes to malindo with a big amount of goodwill. part of rationalizing and also part of skimming off the anti-establishment malaysians! LOL

http://www.suntimes.com/business/10633264-420/story.html

Now u know why AA going for the price war? It will give lion air a "world of hurt" and they will not be able to re mortgage their aircrafts, effectively stopping Lionair air at their tracks!

What is small yield to gain future market share both in Malaysia and Indonesia! Cash flow is everything of which lionair is over extended already since their last purchase from Boeing

Nice read

he thing to realize first is that the 50 billion is list prices, assume 40% less in real value. So that makes it 30 billion. Then its 30 billion divided by 450 planes makes about 66 million a plane. Delivery is over a 5 year period (for example). That is 90 planes a year or about 7 planes a month.

Then all of this becomes a cash flow issue. I expect that a major 1/3 down payment needs to be done at slot confirmation time (I suspect about a year before delivery, this is the first real deposit). So at anyone time there is 12*7*66 million/3 in deposits at the manufactures. Which is about 1.8 billion. Every month they buy aircraft worth a bit more than 462 million (deposits need to be put down for the next batch). On average they would take delivery of 2 planes a week. So make that about 120 million in cash they need in their accounts every week. The thing is once bought by lion air they immediately resell or mortgage them. So they get back their 120 million and now need to pay their lessor/bank in monthly installments.

Lets assume 7 year periods. I suspect financing cost is about 20 million per plane (wild guess . So in the peak years (6 and 7 years after delivery) that comes down to 450*11million (80/7) or about 5 billion a year in payments. (all earlier years would have significantly lower payments). I suspect in reality that is a much higher number than lion pays in real life.

5 billion a year for a fleet of 450 airplanes is not unreasonable and would go down a lot of the financing is for a longer term lets say 11 then its only 3 billion a year.

Paying the bank/lessor is done from cashflow receipts. So as long as new cashflow from new planes makes a profit they only need 120 million in the bank at any one time. If you are making a profit then you can afford this kind of cashflow. The moment you don't make a profit you are in a world of hurt (or more accurately your lessors/banks are).

I can't think of a reason why you can announce a firm order under GAAT or IFRS without a major deposit.

New financing need is therefore only 5 billion a year (divide by 2 for ECA and EX/IM) each 2.5 billion. Something they won't really sweat about

As said before, malindo better find prata boys quick! Hahahahahaahaha

They can hire bullsh*tbear in between! Afterall, one way ticket to collapse! LoL

There is only one way lionair can go, keep dropping yield to secure market share. However, AA is taking the bull by the horn and intensifying the price war. This will ensure malindo's gain is small relative to the small domestic market.

AA still maintains an edge by expanding to India. How is lion air gonna cope by coming to Malaysia? Hahahaha

So how?

I think lionair better revise their order or face bungkuslogy! LoL

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/amresearch/38246.jsp

IMF lowering global growth forecast. I thought IMF lowering AA's only? So how?

Hahahahahahahahahahaha

I mean just saw! :)

Just same AJ AJ 's reply on flights landed. Funny! :)

Filing in court does not mean swamy gets his injunction. You are trying tto mislead the public.

Also, you mentioned AA's delay. It seems you are already resigning to the fact AA will fly! Make up your mind, will you? Hahahahahaha

On investors' part, we are not concern with the delay. It won't reflect in 2013 even if it starts in December!