Nothing against world oil price increase (except maybe during pump petrol, or paying grocery or paying coffee at kopitiam) but in term of this stock price, don't think much is to harp on breaking USD70 unless is going to the 80-90 range and hover there for more then 9 months and to combine/capture the company's coming production increase to see if any increase hype and sentiments for significant stock price increase impact instead. Is all about relevancy and the dynamic making just just one indicator. Just my 2 cents.

Historically the brent price has broke the 70 barrier before, and the stock price? Well, I digest....

What info you still not clear? The truth is there's no absolute free lunch basically....you can plan your entry and exit base on past history of of similar free warrant exercise all you want, but is may not necessary have same outcome each time.

You buy today and hold till tomorrow to sell or sell before or after the issue of the free warrant is your choice. The free warrants if your are entitle will be credit to your acct regardless.

Mother share & free warrant go up or dowm will never for sure, it depends just like any other trading days....n that is the truth. Anyone can speculate, hope, dream, what to expect, all they want

The game play for this counter has changed. Almost 10mil in buy/sell Q for RM1.00 counter, with QR looming very soon, you know what that means right. Not to say good or bad, just that need to adapt to the change. Good luck all. Goodbye....

Game over? Fat lady sang? Missed the fun I guess....

Wow, really a 'spectacular' out-of-the-box investment logic view there. Mind boggling indeed. Anyway, best of luck. Gong Hei Fatt Choy and the rest happy holiday.


Cik Babe so CW boleh berjalan la, tapi kalau not in the money, adakah mother share akan naik esok?
12/02/2018 18:35

For hot fried bananas pls go to the left, for frozen meat pls go the the right........maggi aisle pls?

Big cap, small cap....all can put into deep freezer for now. Want to bargain hunt frozen meats? Maybe will need longer time to thaw the meat. Better option to stock up maggi instant noddles instead.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/bears-are-dominance-over-fbm-small-cap-index-says-rhb-retail-research

The things about oil rig count increase/decrease, is not immediate; at least not immediate translate to share price effect. The same thing about oil price because they are inter-related. This is because in reality it needs time to trickle down to actual effect the world production/reserve for the oil price change. When oil price change (to level where to have significant effect), it will then needs time to be reflected in the company's quarterly result hence only then you may or may not see significant change in share price.

But most ppl here think oil production/price has immediate effects. Yes, sentiments play a big role too, but if you base your sentiment on the wrong factors is another blunder to make. DJ's yo yo up or down 500-1000++ points a day, you better be careful because that will have immediate effect and the sentiments/panic is much stronger compares to oil production or price increase.


B4b4 Be careful , oil rig count increased by 29 last week. That is a lot guys. Be extra careful.
10/02/2018 10:58

Dericlock,

True, nothing much to do now. Whoever holding stock from yesterday or before already got slashed at opening today. But those still holding now, recover some (on paper) already. Will see how DJ/Bill pan out. Positive outcome, faster recovery, otherwise stuck longer.

Not much FA can help as across the board, all counters got hit more or less. Those contra players will feel the most heat as wait for a rebound option may not be available or very limited.

Cut loss when is one of your option vs cut loss is the only option you have make a huge difference, but arrogant and ignorant ppl will not be able to capitalize much from the former option because they will likely not have enough faith to wait for rebound.

Dericlock,

Well, I don't bash the counter just because I sold off dy. Just continue to give my opinions because I followed this counter so closely for months, and if there are good opportunity I will still re-enter. The fundamental is still there, but as I mentioned before is the external force is more prevalent than the company's FA in determining the price direction. And the 0.850 support I shared, now is broken too by the external force. So be careful n remember what I warned if happen (well it did happened).



Dericlock Locomania, i thought u already sold all hibiscus with nothing in hand?
Lol, most of the peoples will only curse the stock after they sold all of them and hoping it can drop further so could pick it up
08/02/2018 18:44

Mark, those are old news. After the Friday n Monday DJ crash, oil price's uptrend got disrupted. It will take some time for the trend to reverse back.

Till then, hope the 0.850 psychological support hold up. So far so good as predicted.

Don't scare ppl la.....0.850 is a critical support. Maintain this level will likely be in trading range unless something big happen to DJ etc.. If break, more roller coaster joy rides and day trading opportunities. otherwise nothing happen, boring till after CNY....my 2 cents.

For months we share info n exchanged opinions ON A DAILY basis to become better informed and hopefully be able to make better investment judgements. For those that made those crude comments, I understand you do not have the camaraderie feeling as I do with fellow investors here that I interacted for months on daily basis because you are new here. If you think that is not a good reason enough to share my opinion and info, then my 'apology' for the intrusion......Have a nice day.

Is not just Hengyuan....even Nestle stock morning gain and almost give back all gain now....Nestle also good for day trading style.....(for now..just to make my point for below)

You guys know I always advocate go long or invest for longer term, but after the DJ 'flash crash'; external forces taken over the company's FA logic. Meaning even if the company fundamentals do not change overnight as I mentioned before, the price direction now still will be erratic due to external forces.

Hence, temporary we need to adjust as well. Temporary I switched to day trader. I am not advocating anyone to become day trader or to say hibi counter is better off for day trading style for long term or short term.

Below a good read...

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/the-stock-market-decline-may-not-be-over-yet/

Disclosure - I do not hold any hibi stock anymore and my day trading transaction is not hibi stock

Very red dy la....

I already warned that after the DJ slumped and yesterday DJ rebounded is still too risky to enter long, unless you are a pure day trader......

To sell or to buy, that is the question.........no holding? Ohhh for goodness sake. You only live once, to live gloriously or to die as miser, your choice!


https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/buy-now-or-stay-clear-heres-what-analysts-are-saying-about-us-selloff

why on earth you think must have news for something to happens? Did any news came out before DJ dropped over 8% in single day? Is call stock mkt, supply, demand, world mkt directions, sentiments, panic ppl, ill-informed ppl, too cleaver, too brave, too ignorant, too confident investors, etc is enough recipe for a counter for up or down >10% a day without any other reason....kabish?

Better wait for clearer uptrend signal before entry unless you are a pure day trader. If you are swing or longer term trader, is too unpredictable still.

Imagine those ppl sold at 0.76-0.77,now can sell at 0.815-0.820 if really need to sell today...moral of the story....then again may drop to 0.60 tomorrow......so that is trading stock...kabish?

At the end of the day, buy long or short, still come to how the supply and demand for the shares, which in turn also depend on the FA & TA.

Furthermore those qualified to short also can go long; is just a matter of when to short n when to go long to make the most money.

Retailers just have to adjust accordingly and invest along with the back of mind knowing this counter has long n short option.

You guys need to see the bigger pictures and put your perspective in better context. The new short selling ruling is not one sided or give disadvantages only to those counters in the list.

Counters with short selling provision may have higher transactions (more active, means opportunities) later as there is option to short as well. So in days to week the price will still go back to normal market forces base on FA and TA of the company.

So for those that think negative side only, you guys really need to view it more broadly and deeper.

Still think yesterday is a good Friday?......

Sum up nicely from the article:

.......And, to boot, a majority of the largest percentage gains came within two weeks of the biggest single-day losses. In other words, stop guessing and stay invested.......

..........In other words, Friday's plunge in the Dow is only a potential nightmare for those investors who choose to remain on the sidelines.

Is all about perception and how you want to see it as like whether you see a glass half full or half empty. DJ down 666 points in a day......okay, on the surface it does look like a big number and not a common phenomena.

But like the below article said, when you compare and view it objectively with real data and my own favorite term, 'in the grand scheme of things' don't be over-reacted. Stay cool & level headed to see what you need to do next instead of over panic with knee-jerk reactions. Is a sign no doubt (not the 666 devil connotation mind you please) that require a closer look nevertheless.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/putting-dow-jones-industrial-average-000200333.html

From Musang King.............."I still think RM1.5 by June is possible." I think I can add more reasons to support this possibility. One month down, 2 months to go, cross fingers maintain the on going price trend.....when result out it will be even more explosive then Feb one hahaha.....

King Musang +1

Timing is just right as said earlier today for the dip.......indicators will show ripe time to rebound next week for the CNY usual spike around 2-3 weeks prior to CNY, then back from CNY break while still hot, hot continue with like what King Musang said on QR result, NS EOR, etc.

Today's bursa announcement just another bonus, when the annouce the entitlement date cut off and the warrant price will be 2 more rounds of positive euphoric events......Good Friday indeed.......

You all do know all these cannot be true due to the conditions set in the PP right? Is just like saying maybe the sun will rise in the west tomorrow because end of the world is coming ....wakaka watch too much fictions you all......

ozzie75 Our friend could probably sound more balanced by saying 'maybe balance PP investor is selling to avoid loss'..haha.

stockistlearner Pp investors selling also can be seen? memang geng chow.....
the investors should be a dump ass. 1.15 didnt sell but sell almost at cost price. trade like pasar aunties. hahaha
02/02/2018 12:33
02/02/2018 12:47

Is a good Friday again....wow a fantastic TGIF indeed.........

I know, is not really 'technical' sound. But hey, m'sian mrkt always have the humans/herd mentality and sentiments to such factors.

Is a blessing in disguised.

1)Hibi been up so much n long. Time for big retrace
2)Timing is quite right, 2 more weeks to CNY, time for CNY euphoria rise
3)The oil also just rebounded.
4)TA indicators will show more promising rebound signs next week

Earlier cut n paste link got truncated so not able to get to the articles. Both articles still available

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/02/01/oil-extends-gains-on-robust-opec-compliance/

Mohd Fahmi Bin Jaes https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/01/31/oil-prices-fall-for-third-day-on-inventory-build/
31/01/2018 11:23

The same paper put out oil price bad news, then the very next day good news.....what are you going to say about it?

Already said 'a solid trend' will not build or collapse within days or 1-2 weeks especially if the trend direction already on a steady direction for months. If it going to collapse months of solid trending within days, it will be WW3 or some worldwide holocaust happens to induce a world market meltdown.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/02/01/oil-extends-gains-on-robust-opec-compliance/



Mohd Fahmi Bin Jaes https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/01/31/oil-price...
31/01/2018 11:23

should rebound next week when back to normal trading week..IBs & mkt manager re-shuffle their month end closing portfolio, seem not favoring Hibi this round.......

No need for all the panic sell / run calls....if your avg entry like below 90 sen let it ride the waves...company's fundamentals do not change overnight.....

Dericlock,

Is the local noise.....true value will retain its value, even if pounded by waves of erosions

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/locals-sell-foreigners-buy



Dericlock Economy outlook by our government
29/01/2018 15:50

Is a muted week for local mkt due to short trading week..

Pleaseezzz.........not need to be so cynical. Even if you don't believe or don't like what ppl comment or share here, there is no need for the name calling and belittle others. Want to let off stem, go punch a sandbag in gym instead of becoming a keyboard warrior for all the wrong reasons.

aiyooo, want to say climax say so la...When it reach to certain level of excitement and anticipation sure enough it will peak and erupt for the syiok-syiok feeling mah............then as usual after the share price climaxed, it will likely to re-trace for the next wave. I am talking about share price la. What you think I am referring to? No syiok-syiok feeling all the way to the bank meh?

klci index really making a get go dash in the last hour......hmmm interesting to watch next week how the whole mkt react to it

Maybe it will be a real TGIF after all...with KLCI index going trend lol.....

Dericklock, I also think the result is not likely an absolute for either side. More likely the world's supply and demand will likely mute any extreme outcome. But hope the current trend maintain is general course (in term of oil price & hibi share price) even if is going to be at much slower rate now going forward and or with more fluctuations.

I like this article...battle of the giants with both sides on each end of the spectrum........which side do you think is spot on or you rather choose the middle ground?

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Saudi-Oil-Minister-Tired-Of-Shale-Hype.html

Good to see more in-depth sharing & comments instead of the super jittery comments when brent fluctuating few cents daily or just shout share price to go up to RM2 or RM10 without logical reasoning.

To me, I have to be realistic & know where is my base for the likes of:

1) risk appetite
2) overall holding plan/duration I can commit to be invested in the stock mkt
3) amount of resources money & time spent and style of monitoring
4) expectation of gain and cut loss level
5) avg entry price
6) industry, market directions, geo-political factors, company mgt & plan, etc

Say if I expect the next 3 to 6 months max to gain additional 8-15%, is a reasonable expectation taking into consideration all the above points plus some others as well.

Go check brent oil price chart since mid June 2017 till now - that is a trend....

then go see hibiscus share price chart since early Sept 2017 till now - that is a trend.....

Conclusion:

1) Strong trend takes month to build or collapse

2) 2+ months laggard between oil price increase vs share price increase >>> back inventory, buyers hedging, profit only reflected in quarterly results, etc.....

3) Laggard in share price versus brent price during uptrend, may also similar brent down trend...

4) But ask yourself, is there any indicators showing conclusively the brent trend has been violated since June? Is the Hibiscus trend has been violated since Sept? Duhh.............

Price steadily inch up or maintain around USD68-73 is great news, if it goes down, it needs time to go down to alarming level before you need to bail out of Hibiscus. Is not daily or weekly fluctuations we need to worry.

Only when is has continuous down trend for weeks to months then you need to be much concern. Yesterday I posted below.....As long as Hibiscus profitable and growing................

..........4th hurdle of oil price will it continue to support profitability with break even - ~USD30/b; good - ~USD50/b; great - ~USD70/b; insanely - ~USD90/b?

Who got crystal ball to say the CONTINUOUS DOWN TREND is starting? Even if it start, it will take continuous weeks time to establish the TREND...so be level headed and think with your big head pls....

Can't exactly say negative. Very cautious and conservative outlook with more emphasis weight in for deteriorating demand/oil price, additional supply, geopolitical crisis affecting Hibiscus output, etc type of scenarios.

So if an analyst is more optimistic on the potential 'good demand/price' scenarios type, than perhaps it will have a more rainbow colored outlook instead of the monotone report.

Btw, free warrants?....that is just a little icing on the cake, no analysts worth his/her salt will weight in the effect on the share price long term, and even less to the effect of the TP.

Think big and think longer term......

Different approach, different view, and/or perhaps different motivator/vested interests hence differing expected result...

But if QoQ results showing continuous uptrend profitability should augurs well for the company share price.

1st hurdle of sourcing for expansion source/oil fields - done
2nd hurdle of getting the capital for the expansion - done
3rd hurdle of getting final approval to close the expansion deal - done
4th hurdle of oil price will it continue to support profitability with break even - ~USD30/b; good - ~USD50/b; great - ~USD70/b; insanely - ~USD90/b?


http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/hibiscus-track-complete-north-sabah-acquisition

You meant this:

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russian-Funds-May-Invest-In-Aramcos-IPO-To-Boost-Oil-Ties.html

Just take financial analyst TP with a pinch of salt. Some analysts above 1.40 while some much below. So end of the day still best to trade base on your own risk appetite, expectations, and your own valuations...

Quote:

BIMB Securities cuts stock to Hold from Buy following 28% rally in shares over past month. "While we still view Hibiscus as the best oil and gas proxy for its direct exposure to crude oil, we throw caution on the potentially significant increase in US shale oil production in 2Q 2018," house says in investor note; advises investors to revisit stock at lower levels. Notes, crude oil prices could be capped by potential production boost from U.S. shale producers that are seeking to capitalize on recent price uptrend. Still, house raises target price to MYR1.05 from MYR0.85, following reassurance from company management that Hibiscus on track to secure role in North Sabah production sharing contract.

https://uniontradejournal.com/quant-rating-update-on-hibiscus-petroleum-berhad-klsehibiscs/584531/

impressive numbers ler.......

back to slow n steady up daily?......one week down....one week up maybe?