Fgv looks saturated at 1.90/1.91 level now. High likelihood that it will breakout higher soon. Perhaps next week? Good luck all!!

Most likely will continue uptrend after almost 1 month consolidating. Hope can break 1.97 tomorrow. Good luck all!!

Nice

http://www.stocktalk2u.com/2017/03/technical-analysis-mar-2017-gadang-9261.html?m=1

The breakout last Friday may signal the beginning of bigger thing for Gadang. Todays supposedly
large T+4 volume was well absorbed. Patience is key to reap maximum return. Good luck all!!

After last Q3 announcement in Nov 2016, market has assumed the worst for FGV i.e full year 2016 loss.

Todays result announcement may caught the market by surprise, judging from rush buying in the afternoon session. It is not entirely surprising. After all, the CEO has repeatedly saying "the worst is over for FGV".

Looks like FGV start doing spring cleaning (i.e closure of unprofitable mill, refinery and rubber processing units) and MSS which should drive profitabilty higher. It is better late than never in this case.

Hopefully, with more optimism FGV can slowly claim its lost ground. Chart wise it is an uptrending.

With GE is around the corner, this counter will surely offer some excitement in the months to come. Good luck all!

Nice uptrending pattern. Higher highs, higher lows. Slow and steady climbing. Good luck all !!

FGV is an uptrending stock now. Higher highs, higher lows. Enjoy the ride. Good luck!!

Privatize is off course one of the option, but at what price?

Let say if privatize at IPO price (unlikely), will Felda have the financial muscle to do that? I doubt so, unless the Federal Government step in. Again, more taxpayers money may be used which may not bode well to them esp when GE 14 is just around the corner.

On the other hand, if privatization is done let say at a premium (30%) above the NTA of 1.71(i.e RM2.22), that will result in huge loss especially to those IPO subscribers. This is also quite unlikely.

Rafizi may be right to describe that FGV is stucked in between a rock and a hard place after all.

I also remember reading an article that speculated Tradewinds Plantation may buy a stake in FGV from a major shoreholder. Again this is still a speculation.

With all these news out there, it is clear that there is a clear concern about FGVs mediocre share price/financial performance. And hopefully things are underway to reverse the share price upwards, whatever that may be.

Good luck all!

Break 1.73. Hope can sustain with higher volume to confirm double bottom formation. Good luck all!!

A new year, a new beginning..... hopefully. Only time will tell.

http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/business/2017/01/02/fgv-optimistic-of-emerging-stronger-in-2017/

enning22, my assumption of RM3000 average CPO price in2017 is premised on:

1) MYR vs USD will still remain under pressure in 2017. This will make CPO more attractive vs competitor oil (i.e soy or vegetable oil) which are USD denominated.

2) lagging el Nino impact. Production expected to recover only in Q3 2017

3) higher biodiesel mandate in US and Indonesia to drive demand higher.

4) world population growth to drive higher consumption, driven by India and China.

5) formation of CPOPC between Malaysia and Indonesia to stabilize CPO price (if materialize).

Let say CPO price average for 2016 is RM 2500.

And average CPO price in 2017 is RM 3000.

Assuming FGV can produce 3.0 million tonne per annum (this is achievable based on past years record).

Forecasted additional profit in 2017 = 500 x 3,000,000 = RM 1.5 Billion in 2017!!

Now with no more M&A, plan to optimize current assets plus the cost cutting measures, I believe the likelihood of achieving the above profit in 2017 is high.

Hopefully, the formation of CPOPC will become a reality to stabilise CPO price with the recent purchase of EHP by FELDA.

Some info on merit of purchase of EHP by FELDA. Interesting facts about the aquisition pricing

https://www.google.com.my/amp/www.nst.com.my/node/199364/amp?client=safari

Actually, I think this Eagle High Plantation (EHP) acquisition by FELDA is a good news to FGV. Why good? I believe because of 2 main reasons:

1) that will end the speculation that FGV will be buying EHP. TheEdge/Deputy Minister report/spin is therefore irrellevant from now on. FGV also formally informed Bursa after market close yesterday.

2) FGV can also get back ther USD 175 mil deposit which was paid in mid 2015. Exchange rate then was 3.75 vs 4.47 now. Estimated gross proceeds of RM 128 million just by exchange rate difference. This is significant.

But the not so good news is Felda will be roped in to buy EHP. Hence taxpayers money will be used in this case.

Just my 2 cents. Good luck all!!

Nice

Ring. Indeed like Adcool and TheOne, I also find your insight of the palm oil management/operations very informative. Appreciate your sharing and comments.

Clear sky ahead for FGV. Less T+4 volune to cope from here onwards. Good luck all!

Turnaround/rationalization plan + CPO price recovery + speculative election play = drive FGV up

As long as these 3 factors are intact.... the price should eventually recover.

Not to mention MSM already hike 30% up for their premium sugar price in November. Good luck all!

Indeed, there is always two sides of a coin. As long as we have enough conviction to buy or not to, we then should just execute our plan.

There is no point to argue who is right or wrong. After all we are accountable to our investment decision. Only time will tell.

Ring, I do read Focus and the thing about Fgv is bulk of it production comes from smallholders via the LLA. And this are the ones that is pulling down their yield because most of the trees there are old and the cost for replanting that has to be borne by these small holders is huge to them.

In the recent Budget announcement, there is an allocation to these small holders to address the low yield issue. And this will greatly benefit Fgv in the long run since the LLA is only unique to Fgv.

I believe other plantation companies have better yield simply because they have better control on their replanting programme. And for this, direct comparison in terms of yield with other companies may not be that straightforward in the case of Fgv.

Just my 2 cents.

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell." --Sir John Templeton

1.61. Not a bad closing, back to where it was last week. Panic sellers and short term players should all be exhausted by now. Hopefully, FGV can start to recover from here driven by its turnaround/rationalisation plan, recovery in CPO price and GE14 speculative play.

Future earnings prospect looks bright from here. Good luck all!!

I think price should stabilise and rebound further from this level. Good luck all!!

Not a bad day... absorbing selling pressure. Afternoon selling volume also thin, still anticipating a meaningful rebound ahead.

Btw, PM announced election will be held soon ka? How soon? What will happen to FGV? Maintain below RM2 only ka? Only time will tell.

Absorbing profit taking around 1.59-1.61 level. Thats the last level seen last week before the news appeared in the Edge weekly.

Hope sellers are exhausted before next push up for a meaningful rebound. Good luck all!!

Looks like the CEO statement has been 'misinterpreted' by The Edge this time. The impairment is for business rationalisation and improvement after all.

If the rationalisation plan brings greater efficiency and cost optimisation, it should be positive for FGV actually. Only time will tell. Good luck all!!

Nice closing. Hope this will lead to a meaningful recovery!! Congrats and good luck to all!

Down severe enough. Hopefully FGV will have a meaningful rebound either today or tomorrow. Reloaded at 1.44. Goodluck all!!

FELDA, FIC and FGV are three separate entities. FELDA is 100% owned by the Federal government. FIC is a non-listed investment vehicle to invest in non-plantation related (i.e hotel in UK etc) business. And FGV is the listed entity.

I think the AG finding is on FELDA, not FGV as FGV has appointed its own auditors. Nevertheless, this news may affect the sentiment as FGV is majority owned by FELDA.

Heard FGV will report Q3 results tomorrow. Any idea good or not?

Found this info:

http://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvFDZpiwfagWeS1uh28tdNT7rJEY4RVxZuPFHhlFA%3D

Production increase slightly and ferrosilicone sales from OM Sarawak increased by 21.5% in Q2 vs Q1

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/silk-secures-rm2426m-contract-provide-straight-supply-vessel

Break and close above 74.5. Good sign

Oil sudah rebound

http://paultan.org/2014/11/19/toll-hikes-postponed-rm560-million/

Either rate hike or government compensation, this is a good news to Silkhld.
With double digit traffic growth, may be able to make profit earlier from its highway
operation.

Looks like 2015 would be a turnaround year for Silkhld.

Tabung Haji quietly buying Perisai

Today is T+4 for heavy volume last Monday when the lock up period expired. If ICON can absorb selling pressure, looks like got chance for a nice rebound.

Quietly creeping up in the midst of bloodbath in KLCI. I like!

Sampool,

For double digit traffic growth, you can refer Silk's presentation slide to analysts in their website.

For 40% rate hike in Feb 2015, Pls refer to the link:
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/05/29/Highway-IPO-back-on-track-Analysts-positive-on-IJMs-proposed-acquisition-of-Silk/?style=biz

40 % toll rate hike in February 2015, plus double digit traffic growth....

Salam easymoney,

Indeed Bualuang will still be profitable, though profit margin
may somewhat reduced

Sona may not have to loan so much if re-negotiated based on current pricing. Or perhaps,With the same offer amount, could end up with higher ownership (49%?)

The thing I don't like with this Cicak (Salamander) is, they are not transparent and not keeping to their words. Not a good start from a new potential partner isn't it?

In conclusion, Sona (we all) are lucky. Ophir come and rescue us!

Imagine if the deal go through, Sona surely will be hit hard.

Timing couldn't be better for Sona (and other SPACS) to find
assets at cheap price.

Dear SONA,

Pls take advantage of low oil price.

Ditch unfaithful Salamander immediately.

Find a new loyal partner instead.

We shareholders are willing to wait patiently.


Regards

http://www.nst.com.my/node/56438

“We will meet up with Salamander next week to discuss the options,” Sona managing director Datuk Seri Hadian Hashim told Business Times yesterday.

“This is a developing situation and we are looking at all possibilities, including conciliatory measures, such as working with Ophir.”

http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2014/11/things-moving-for-sona-petroleum.html?m=1#comment-form

Sona (40% Bualuang) USD 270+- mil. VS Ophir (100%) USD 418.5 mil

gopiwira....itu 0.9 bil is in RM. Around USD 270 mil +-
For 40% stake

Yes. Ophir's offer is worst than Cepsa/Jho Low

http://www.investegate.co.uk/ophir-energy-plc--ophr-/rns/announcement-of-possible-offer-for-salamander-plc/201411210700116535X/


Maybe investors are placing their bet after the recent release of offer by Ophir.

Sona deal better for Salamander?

And one more thing. If Salamander really wants to sell all of its company, they could have done it last year/ early this year when oil price was higher and O&G sentiment
was good.

After all, Cepsa and Ophir's offer is NOT too good to resist either.

My take:

If Salamander desperate for cash = Cepsa/Ophir

If Salamander not desperate for cash = SONA

Sona's offer is not apple to apple, when compared to Ophir and Cepsa.

Sona offer only for 40% of Bualuang/G450, whilst Ophir and Cepsa wants to buy the whole Salamander.

It truly depends on how badly does Salamander needs money. If not desperate, then maybe the best option
For them is to stick with Sona and only consider let go sometime in the future.

After all, Sona offered the most per share basis (around 160p), vs Cepsa and Ophir.

The game is not over yet for Sona. Not blowing the SONA trumpet here, by trying to look at it objectively.