what reason oil drop so serious today

The price assumptions took into account the current tighter supply situation, following the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (Opec) production cuts in January, said RAM’s head of consumer and industrial ratings Kevin Lim.

PETALING JAYA: RAM Ratings has forecast an average Brent crude oil price of US$50 per barrel for both 2017 and 2018.

The price assumptions took into account the current tighter supply situation, following the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (Opec) production cuts in January, said RAM’s head of consumer and industrial ratings Kevin Lim.

Last year, the price of crude oil averaged at US$44 per barrel, slightly higher than RAM’s assumption of US$40 per barrel.

Through most of 2016, prices were weighed down by a heavy oversupply, triggered by the surge in Opec’s production, Lim said in a statement.

He added: “However, tentative signs that the cartel may pursue production cuts lifted the average price to just shy of US$50/barrel in the final quarter of the year, translating into a 7.5% quarter-on-quarter rise.”

To recap, RAM had previously assumed US$50 per barrel for the year - without factoring in any production cut from Opec - and estimated that Opec’s output cut would provide a US$5-US$10 upside this year.

While Opec is on track to meeting its output reduction targets so far, the agreement only spans six months and will expire by the end of June.

“We believe that production cuts over a longer period will be required to achieve a more lasting impact on global supply and prices.

“RAM also envisages oil prices to hover around the current levels in 2018, reflecting the limited scope for further price gains in the near term. While we expect supply and demand to be broadly matched this year and the next, the price recovery is likely to be muted,” Lim pointed out.

Inventory levels remain significant by historical standards; it will take time before the current oversupply can be absorbed. Meanwhile, armed with more efficient and advanced technology, United States shale players are poised for a strong comeback.

“We believe shale producers will rapidly ramp up production as prices ascend, as is the case now. Oil prices slipped to US$51 per barrel in early March (from an average of US$55 per barrel in the first two months of 2017), following news of a persistent increase in US shale oil output,” Lim added.

That said, an extension of the joint cuts by Opec and non-Opec countries (by another six months) is on the cards; a decision is expected to be made at the upcoming Opec meeting in May. “If this materialises, we anticipate an upside of US$5 to our price assumption for 2017 and 2018, depending on how quickly inventory is run down.

The Opec production-cut deal struck on Nov 30, 2016 is hailed as one of the most notable market developments last year.

The agreement will span six months, with a targeted output reduction of about 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 32.5 million bpd.

An agreement has also been established with other major producers (including Russia), bringing the total targeted supply curtailment to 1.8 million bpd.

OPEC, non-OPEC committee recommends extending output cut by six months

A joint committee of ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers recommended extending by six months a global deal to reduce oil output, a draft press release from their meeting on Sunday showed.
OPEC and rival oil-producing countries were meeting in Kuwait to review progress with their global pact to cut supplies.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and 11 other leading oil producers including Russia agreed in December to cut their combined output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day in the first half of the year.

Oil could collapse if OPEC doesn't keep its act together
The oil ministerial committee "expressed its satisfaction with the progress made towards full conformity with the voluntary production adjustments and encouraged all participating countries to press on towards 100 percent conformity," said the draft, seen by Reuters.
The December accord, aimed at supporting the oil market, has lifted crude to more than $50 a barrel. But the price gain has encouraged U.S. shale oil producers, which are not part of the pact, to boost output.
The committee said it took note that certain factors, such as low seasonal demand, refinery maintenance and rising non-OPEC supply had led to an increase in crude oil stocks. It also observed the liquidation of positions by financial players.
"However, the end of the refinery maintenance season and noticeable slowdown in U.S. stock build as well as the reduction in floating storage will support the positive efforts undertaken to achieve stability in the market," it said.
Before the meeting, Iraqi Oil Minister Jabar Ali al-Luaibi told reporters there were some encouraging elements that suggested the oil market was improving, and that if all OPEC members agreed measures to help price stability, Iraq would support such steps.
"Any decisions taken unanimously by members of OPEC ... Iraq will be part of the decision and will not be deviating from this," Luaibi said.
Iraq's oil production is running at 4.312 million bpd this month, Luaibi said, adding that his country had cut its oil exports by 187,000 bpd so far and would reach 210,000 bpd in a few days.
Compliance with the supply-cut deal was 94 percent in February among OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers combined, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said.
(L to R) Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, Kuwait's Oil Minister Essam al-Marzouq and OPEC secretary general Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo attend a meeting for the 2nd Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee of OPEC, in Kuwait City, on March 26, 2017.
Yasser Al-Zayyat | AFP | Getty Images
(L to R) Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, Kuwait's Oil Minister Essam al-Marzouq and OPEC secretary general Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo attend a meeting for the 2nd Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee of OPEC, in Kuwait City, on March 26, 2017.
Russia is committed to cuts of 300,000 bpd by the end of April, Novak said, adding that a deal extension could be discussed on Sunday.
"For today, obviously, this is within the sphere of our questions," Novak said.
Novak said he expects global oil stockpiles to decrease in the second quarter of this year.
"The dynamics are positive here, I believe," Novak said, adding that inventories in the United States and other industrialised countries had risen by less than in the past.
Kuwaiti Oil Minister Essam al-Marzouq said the oil market may return to balance by the third quarter of this year if producers comply fully with their production targets.
"More has to be done. We need to see conformity across the board. We assured ourselves and the world that we would reach our adjustment to 100 percent conformity," Marzouq said.

（吉隆坡24日讯）受石油输出国组织（OPEC）减产，以及美国石油库存大增影响，今年国际油价先盛后衰，但联昌研究认为，全球需求殷切将继续带动油价走扬，看好高油价将扶持石油与天然气股表现。

油盟在去年杪达成减产共识，正式启动油价上升模式，直到美国石油库存大增，涨势才稍见喘息，但联昌研究相信，就算油盟不延长减产期限，未来全球石油需求增加将足以扶持油价持续走扬。

“若油盟延长减产期限，油价涨势可能更强。”

该行说，如果油盟将今年2月的减产幅度延续全年，届时全球石油库存将减少115万桶，相等于2014年累积库存减少43%，这将帮助油价复苏。

“就算油盟下半年维持去年第四季的产量高峰，我们相信全球石油库存仍减少17%。”

但联昌指出，油价前景向好只造福上游业务，船务领域仍苦苦经营，主要是油轮租金受低石油产量和新增船舰两大因素抑制。

“更重要的是，全球石油库存减少也将使更多早前转往储藏市场的船舰重返运输领域，加剧市场竞争，我们相信未来2年油轮租金将持续低迷。

I hope so... just worry OPEC no result come out after the meeting.. then oil price will further drop. like what I share in link path

If can close at 0.41 is better.

night time will drop serious than up... cham....

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/23/oil-prices-into-the-30s-if-opec-cant-keep-it-together.html

Strong support.... hope can fly in one day...

All keep silent again when oil price drop. when share price up super active... haha

oil price start in downtrend

Not easy to break the wall

lai lai lai up up up up

buying interest very less for oil counter. Big shark hope u can realise this counter is still profitable. and price still can further push up

Which one we should refer

Actually we are refer to crude oil or Brent oil price for hibiscs

Based on the oil trend. Very high possibility to night oil inventories will increase. As per their estimate figure release last night. Tml may further drop. Please get ready to buy in or cut loss depend to urs risk willing to take.

but any how I will hold until this week, OPEC have another meeting on 26th Mar. see what is the next action. if not will consider to cut loss if oil price keep on dropping to 0.45 level. if hibiscus fluctuation not much will still to hold it and average the price, and keep for future..

I will keep on accumulate to average down my price.... No body can predict the oil price...

All of you sell your stock and run away???? haha

so quite today.... be positive.... be patient...

Oil price is drop.. people is waiting US crude oil report to announce on today. Hope Hibiscs price can be sustain.

any news you can share, how to know is 99%

the encourage thing is the announcement of acquisition of oil field in Sabah.. dunno when hibiscus can complete it. If can come out with such good news sure price will jump up to another level.

hope the oil price increase can continue sustain it. and this 22nd result for US crude oil stock level hope can show in reduce figure. then probably is benefit to hibiscs

Hohohoo.. oil price is touch 52… moving to night hopefully. Tml up back to 53 / 54

average to 0.43, forget to check.. morning got quantity bought in for 0.40

0.415 support level

uptrend is coming when oil price recover............cheer to all

brent oil going to hit 52

Kakashi, I'm the one holding the higher price, when u all make profit I not yet breakeven ...

Hibiscs is time to announce for good news please..

start to stable now... slowly move up ... wish it together... haha... believe will be jump up when oil price recover.

The news related to hibisccs?? not really understand

just keep it... reward you when oil price up... OPEC cut only can see the impact during month of Apr'17

Oil price strong rebound now.

Price higher at 0.44

When oil price back to higher. This stock is still very attractive. Hold it.

Oil price rebound back. Just now drop to 47 level now back to 48

All depend to oil price.

crude oil price going to drop lower than support level 48.. tml will further drop for hibiscs

no hope...

haha... tukar gear

But oil price continue dropping, GM68, why ur news share morning not help at all.

wah ... one time eat all the 0.415

touch 0.41... but look like really not many people to sell...

look like support level will be at 0.415

Based on last year annouchment acquisition will be done in 2017. But until now still no news.

Buying interest is low now for hibiscs.. Next Monday dunno may further drop.

Just go in at 0.435 yesterday. today go down again. hope can move up slowly.