Shale oil producers gonna b facing mass credit default due to negative cashflow

Share oil producers gonna turn against Trump asking him to prop up oil price

Can the U.S. shale boom continue if WTI stays mired below $50 per barrel?

Much has been made about the dramatic cost reductions that shale drillers have implemented over the past few years, with impressive breakeven prices that should ensure the drilling frenzy continues no matter where oil prices go. On earnings calls with investors and analysts, shale executives repeatedly trumpeted extremely low breakeven prices.

However, those figures are at times cherry-picked or otherwise misleading. They fail to include the cost of land acquisition and other costs, or they simply reflect cost structures in only the very best acreage.

The sudden meltdown in prices – oil fellnearly 8 percent on Tuesday – could put renewed scrutiny on the point at which many shale wells breakeven.

The problem for a lot of companies is that they are not necessarily earning the full WTI price. Oil in West Texas in the Permian Basin continues to trade at a steep discount relative to WTI, even as the differential has narrowed in recent months. With WTI at roughly $47 or $48 per barrel, oil based in Midland is trading below $40 per barrel, the lowest point in more than two years, according to Bloomberg.

Bloomberg NEF data provides more clues into the complex “breakeven” debate. Wells located in the Spraberry (within the Permian basin) can breakeven when prices trade between $32 and $47 per barrel. Digging deeper, Bloomberg NEF notes that some of the best wells can break even in the low $30s, but the worst quartile of wells breakeven at an average of $65.54 per barrel.

In other words, a large portion of wells in the Permian – which, to be clear, is often held up as the best shale basin in the world – is currently unprofitable, given WTI priced in the high-$40s per barrel. The problem is even worse for areas outside of the Permian, where breakevens are on average much higher. Arguably only the very best wells in the Bakken, the Eagle Ford and the Niobrara are making money right now.

That puts the heady production figures from the EIA for 2019 into doubt. The agency expects the U.S. to grow production by 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2019, another very large annual increase. However, that growth is predicated on higher oil prices. “If WTI remains around current levels (~$50/bbl), US growth should start to slow,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a recent note.

There are some mitigating circumstances that could shield shale producers from the worst. Shale E&Ps routinely hedge their production for the year ahead. Just months ago, some of those hedges looked like a bad bet – producers had locked in prices in the $50s or so for much of 2018, even as oil prices over the summer traded much higher than that. For instance, Anadarko Petroleum said it missed out on $298 million in revenue because it locked itself into hedges at price levels lower than the prevailing spot price.

Panic buy tomolo

Knn Ah Ken promised 10 offtakes d ma

Ah Ken follows closely

Pandai la u Dericlock

Knn

In relation thereto, we wish to clarify that there has already been one offtake in this quarter (October – December 2018) which was conducted in November 2018 in the Anasuria Cluster. Approximately 274 thousand barrels of oil (“Anasuria AHUK Offtake Volume”) net to AHUK was lifted and sold.

We refer to a research report by TA Securities Holdings Berhad on Dagang NeXchange Berhad dated 17 December 2018 (“TA Report”).



In the TA Report, it is stated that ”management noted that no lifting will be performed for Anasuria in 4Q18, leaving total FY18 lifting at 4 times (against earlier guidance of 5 liftings)”.



Such a statement may have caused some confusion amongst the shareholders of Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad given that our indirect wholly-owned subsidiary, Anasuria Hibiscus UK Limited (“AHUK”), generally conducts offtakes in conjunction with Ping Petroleum UK Limited at the Anasuria Cluster.



In relation thereto, we wish to clarify that there has already been one offtake in this quarter (October – December 2018) which was conducted in November 2018 in the Anasuria Cluster. Approximately 274 thousand barrels of oil (“Anasuria AHUK Offtake Volume”) net to AHUK was lifted and sold.



For the avoidance of doubt, the Anasuria AHUK Offtake Volume is in relation to our oil sales from the Anasuria Cluster only and does not include any oil volumes from offtake(s) from our North Sabah asset during the same period.





This announcement is dated 19 December 2018

Down 9% today more fell into d group to receive top up call tomorrow

Banks calling d shot

Forced selling stil on

Jz hope ah ken n other big shareholders r not wetting their pants braising for d dread top up phone call

TP for forced selling?

Abu Hassan forced to cease as substantial shareholder of Prestariang

TP upto d point banks r happy

Well wat to do mkt oso pusing pusing got to b flexible

Now lolololo no kikikiki time

*at

I don't mind 0 uplift in 1 qtr by 2 later but mkt now lots of forced selling look Prestariang bos

Now supply under control it is demand side tat is messed up by Trump

12pm forced selling

No more IDSS stil lolololo

Run

Let ur hair down

*thread

Cannot afford to screw up its oil industry

US is holding on to its tech advantages by tread

Shale oil is d only good thing going on for Trump for US

OPEC wil become OPEC++

In no time Trump wil b more concern abt low oil prices thn MBS or Putin

Short term wti brent lolololo

But jz short term

Long term wyi brent kikikiki

WTI below 50 usd d biggest oil salesman Trump wil b in big trouble

Shale oil producers gonna hv no cash flow all cash jam

Mass credit default

Too much lololololo over shoot

Some more said d aiming 10 uplifts in 2019

Hibiscus experienced no uplift in 1 qtr but 2 in nxt qtr b4 why so panic

More like forced selling across d board hitting Hibiscus as collateral damage

No la 4Q for dnex

Q to Q variation so important? All stil in same year end 2019

Tua lo whr got kikikiki? Don't bull

Lololololo no kikikikiki

Despite a large capital expenditure for ongoing developments, Ping Petroleum may potentially pay dividends, given strong cash flows from Anasuria’s operations.

Wat news fr dnex exactly?

Everyone short

Short till IDSS don't dare to short

On hindsight IDSS like pretty smart

Warren swears by If +&#£=¥÷If;-£÷×(;^×*×If¥$,-;!/×€If÷&

If


If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs ...

If you can wait and not be tired by waiting ...

If you can think – and not make thoughts your aim ...

If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you ...

Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it.

Newbie I good man I teach u hw to fish u go annual report n hv a look at top 30

KWSP KWAP n many funds r in Hibiscus d n d rarest is SOCSO

Being included in MSCI Index wil bring in more funds

Last few days of 2018

It is abt funds doing reallocation

It is abt funds doing positioning

Hibiscus included in MSCI index it has got to count for something

Lack of fund poor small timer traders who jz want some profit oso always contributing to d dumb

*of

Confusing


IDSS like damn smart to do their biz at resistance level but jz 1 2 cents profit only


While if going long wld bring abt a breakout wit potential gain or 20 cents or more


Knn dumb IDSS