I think Singaporean Calvin Tan is discriminating. He say RM 1 billion debt by AAX is bad. Now, he will say RM 250 billion debt of Singapore Airline is good.

Ok readers, since Calvin does not want to check, can you guys check what KKP did on the 5TH OF JUNE from the Market Buzz via the link below?

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/3891.jsp

Some of what Calvin say is correct but most of them are wrong. Let us discuss Calvin's accusations :

(1) AAX operating 30 planes.

Yes, it is correct AAX is operating 30 planes. So, great Calvin, you have done a good job.

(2) AAX owns all the 30 planes such that its annual depreciation is RM 600 million (rounded figures).

Let's look at AAX annual account 2016.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5343605

In the annual report, it mentioned depreciation is RM 113 million but leasing is RM 846 million. So, what does that means ? It means that AAX leases around 85% of its plane and pay lease for 846 million. And it owns the rest and pays depreciation RM 113 million.

If you consider leasing cost as part of depreciation, then total annual "depreciation" is RM 846+113 = RM 959 million. Round it to RM 1 billion. Is paying RM 1 billion a big figure ?

Since Calvin is from Singapore, let us compare with Singapore Airlines.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-01/singapore-air-may-land-unfamiliar-net-debt-spot-as-soon-as-2018

Singapore Airlines is going to land a USD $ 53 billion debt in 2018 or RM 250 BILLION debt. Assuming 5% depreciation rate, Singapore Airlines is going to pay RM 12.5 BILLION depreciation in a year. But its net profit per year is only RM 900 million (as good as Air Asia).

So, as a Singaporean , Calvin Tan. Is the debt Singapore Airline is taking worth it or not ????? You land yourself back in your accusation of AAX.

On 5th of June - KKP sold 2.5 million + 2.5 million = 5 million.

KKP associate company , check link below and do the math yourself.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/3891.jsp

KKP is selling his shares to unloack MUI Holding value. That is more correct.

Logically, KKP should buy more shares when he sells asset because all the dividend from his asset sale will go more into his account. But he sells his shares . Can you understand what that means ?

Dear Chinaman, I have a chinese uncle who had hold MUI at 0.28 senfor five years. And do check market buzz. Major shareholders sold 15 million shares. Even the founder and owner sold 5 million shares. Normally, I dont buy shares if owners are selling. Chinaman, it is your own money. If you make loss, also your own money. I should not care . At least, try to understand my comment.

You can see Market Buzz here and look major shareholders are disposing their shares like mad.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/3891.jsp

I have warned investors in MUI to take care of themselves, sell and run. Those who are stubborn now face the burning.

If you dont believe , check this link again.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/3891.jsp

If u eat what CalvinTanEng says , and buy MUI, you make immediate loss of 20%. Lagi mahu percaya ?

CalvinTanEng is just spamming and asked investor to purchase MUI.

I know a chinese uncle bought his MUI at 0.28 and got trapped for five years. MUI is making 7 quarters of continuous losses. No uncle , auntie and friend want to buy that counter but he keep on promoting.

Why he promotes MUI ? So that Tan Sri Koo Kay Ping can disposed shares to pay settlement to his ex-wife ? On 5th of June, Tan Sri Kay Ping disposed 5 million shares. KKP Holdings disposed 2.5 million shares. Nocross limited dispoded 2.5 million shares. So Lay holding disposed 2.5 million shares. Cherebum Investment (HK) limited disposed 2.5 million shares.

Market react and MUI holding fall again from 25 sen to 19 sen.

So, run run , sell sell... dont buy MUI Holdings and other shares CalvinTanEng promotes because the major shareholders are disposing all those shares to pay off his ex-wife.

Q1 PBT was actually RM 31 m. The model measure PBT and. ot PAT. Tax for AAX a nit haywire. Sometimes , deferred tax give positive gain. So I exclude tax for prediction ourpose

you will kill ursrlf if u play contra

i like elbrutus comment

i will try to do AA later

I have published my blog article on predicting AAX Profit Before Tax for Q2 2017. It is not yet in the "Headline" Section, so I am giving you the link here.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/radziarticles/125138.jsp

Anyway, I will publish that article on Monday night to have a better readership circulation as we are going to enjoy Monday holiday.

Tqvm elbrutus for encouraging word. I received a number of them. I have done again the analysis and it positively says that it could predict about 65% of variation in profit before tax, with PBT estimated at around RM 52 million. The factors not considered in that model are variation in leasing cost, variation in maintenance cost and variation in staff espenses. I will write the article tonight.

stockmanmy; i will write an article again, maybe your would want to read that article before making a decision.

I should warn those who want to invest. AAX result is work in progress because exchange rate moves across the quarter. The most positive impact is on forex gain. On the other hand, impact on operating cost is the average value across the quarter. As much you want to invest, please have holding power because in a flight, there is turbulence. In Q2, some turbulence is still around. At Q3 , most turbulence is over.

stockmanmy, you mean profit before tax ? 06/2016 - After tax , profit $1 million.

I will share the third activle - AAX profit correlation with USD and jet fuel price movement, if there is significant correlation.

If we dont have clown in our life, we would be happy. Let newinvestor17 act his clown plots, and enjoy his show.Silently, he is buying.

This is a bad counter. It is a lost making counter. The founder wants to get money to pay his ex-wife. Run, run, sell, sell..... go away . Dont get your money trapped here.

When did I say currency drop is good for AAX ? Maybe you can enlighten me ? Only one person said currency drop increases revenue that is JJChan. But for me, as I have written in the blog article, currency drop is not good. My official stand is AAX is good only when currency appreciates. For your enjoyment, read here - AAX dependency in the movement of US Dollar.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/radziarticles/124719.jsp

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/radziarticles/124738.jsp

Maybe NI can give other analysis to support his view, like I gave my analysis to support my view.

AAX and Airasia are great because they have appetite to grow. Similar with Frontkn. When a company is growing from internal fund you get the message. Profitable and growing profit company

remember mas ka still nakibg loss. Airasia profit is 1 billion, AAx struggling but making profit. Mas is not market leaser . They try to copy Airasia but why they are still making loss.

next few years will be airline year . rapid growth

i buy industry if all company in industry can keep cost low

if mas list again , i will buy mas but smaller portion than my airasia and aax holding

just sharing , anither stock that i like is frontkn. Studied fundamental, it is good .Honestly, purchased at 31

if yiu dont like the stock , just go away. If you llike the stock, then write article for your analysis . I am writing articles . Will write a few more this coming weekend

Usain Bolt always lost to David Rudisha

Nobody point a gun to your head to buy , if you dont like this stock just go away. Or else , I assume you are banker's agent to push price down for them to collect low. You know fuel price and exchange rate, you know how advantageous people who buy at current price compared with people whou bought 2 weeks ago. Lagi mahu jatuh ?

I am a long term player. Why limit to Q2 ? Now is the time to plant your seed , harvesting timr could be Q3 or Q4. If can harvest Q2 , a bonus.

My answer is based on the time series predictive model that I built over 70 years of oil price data.

In year 2013, Warren Buffet says airline is a death trap. He was probably right. AAX makes biggest annual loss in year 2014 and 2015.

In year 2015 , Warren Buffet bought a lot of oil and gas shares, and in 2016 those shares are tanking. He realised something. So, today, in year 2017, Warren Buffet bought stakes in United Airlines, Southwest Airlines, and Delta Airlines despite increasing competition in air travel industry. He surely look at his rear window. But, what did he actually look at such that he changed his opinion, care to answer ?

My answer -
- Warren Buffet predicted fuel price to drop below USD 30 per barrel in year 2018, and this decade economic recession would be based on commodity prices spiraling down.

Fuel expense is actually = Fuel price x Volume x Exchange Rate.

It is multiplicative factor and either one goes down will reduce fuel expenses as a whole.

staid86, Airasia hedge is done on monthly basis. The benefit is on the 30% unhedged fuel and the elapsed monthly hedge as time past.

Crude drops to 45.74 - the hypothetical equilibrium level. I hope can drop to 40. But , it is hard.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL=F?p=CL=F

if MacQ call warrant , I am worried . They are skillful, and even put an operative in this forum to disrupt any promotion of AAX.

AAX wont go into Europe market until they gain cost advantage. Wait till delivery of AAX Neo330.

Avangelice, I am not IB... I cant answer you. Of course they will stop selling.

Later acceso will write, too busy currently, and anyway dont sound homosexual , disgusting.

Can be good. It shows the strength of low cost long haul carrier. Everybody needs to become low cost now , and AAX is the market leader, it experienced the "do" and "donts" in Asia low cost business while others are still learning, example AAX makes profit while MAS (MAB) still makes loss. Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines reduces significant profit. And being market leader, AAX has market their product well.

Hahahahaha acceso, I can see that you cannot write a better "rubbish" than that article.

Stockmanmy,

LOW-COST AIRLINES SHAKE UP MARKET FOR LONG HAUL FLIGHTS

Low-cost, long-haul air travel has taken off across the Atlantic, shaking a club of major airlines meeting in Mexico this week and forcing established flag carriers to set up budget subsidiaries or lower fares.

Transatlantic routes are among the industry's most popular and profitable, and budget carriers are trying to grab a slice of that business by boosting capacity on them by 68 percent this summer, according to data from air travel intelligence company OAG.

A looming fare war has gained fresh momentum from lightweight new planes with fresh, appealing interiors that help to keep costs down.

Norwegian Air Shuttle (NWC.OL) and Icelandic rival Wow have grabbed headlines with fares as low as $69 and $55 this summer, although Wow's flights involve a stop in Reykjavik.

Legacy carriers are not idly standing by, and executives at the International Air Transport Association meeting in Cancun, Mexico, said in interviews they were confident their plans to offer low-cost long-haul flights would succeed.

"Disrupters such as Norwegian Air Shuttle and AirAsia X (AIRX.KL) have shaken up the airline market and forced scheduled operators to rethink their transatlantic strategies," Euromonitor travel project manager Nadejda Popova said.

You can continue reading this article at

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airlines-iata-longhaul-idUSKBN18Y2S7

Darren, yeah i understand what you are trying to say. Crude oil is unprocessed oil, it can be brent or Tapis or anything. Brent is higher

Jet fuel is actually kerosene, the low grade of processed crude oil.

Malay called it minyak tanah. In the village, the kampung village uses kerosene to start fire for barbeque or any related high volume cooking.

In statistics, we have something called "Inference" , so in my analysis. I infer AAX expenses from crude oil movement. This is quite interesting. If you are academician, we can publish this in journals or conference. The uniqueness of this - you don't need oil volume consumption data.

Stockmanmy; AAX survived the worst situation of high oil price and bad exchange rate in Q4'16 and Q1'17. With lesser oil price and better exchange rate, no doubt they will make higher profit.

Max2838, I was trying to understand why this airline was having problem in the last quarters.

After spending some thinking time, the problem turned out to be like this.

As Airasia and AAX was helmed by Tony Fernandes , who had experience in Richard Branson's Virgin Records, are extremely good in marketing and sales. They sells ticket 1 year in advance at cheap price , with certain capacity of the airplanes.

At the point of selling, the tickets would make good profit. Along the way in the 1 year, situation changed. Exchange rate suddenly goes bad and fuel price suddenly goes up.

Nobody really knows that OPEC will cut production and simulate artificial inventory reduction to increase oil price, and nobody foresee what would happen to 1MDB news such that many investor and speculators dumps Malaysia ringgit in favour of other currencies. Those two factors can cause anyone to make judgment error, be he you, me, Tony Fernandes, Benjamin or Peter Bellew. So, there goes Q42016 and Q12017.

Well, I am here not to talk about bad things that had happened such that everyone will be depressed. The nice thing about the above paragraph, the opposite effect is happening, oil price is dropping from constant highest price shown in Q1'17 and exchange rate keep on improving, in Q2 2017.

If this improving scenario continues and everything else remains constant, we would have a good Q2 2017 and a bumper Q3/Q4 2017.

I would delete this post , because I do want to buy more at a lower price later. So, grasp this idea.

Whenever, I want to buy petrol in Thursday, I would study the pattern in this website.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL=F?p=CL

If previous one week shows oil price is lower than previous two week, then I will buy petrol on Thursday. If it is the opposite, I will fill up my tank till full on Wednesday. This is quite a good pattern indicator.

I have re-analyse AAX fuel expense dependency on fuel price per gallon and fuel price per barrel and exchange rate, and I found the fuel expense could be explained better. Will write later on this analysis, for today, I hope to buy some.