I queue buy somemore today.. hopefully can get later.. the current price is considered discounted..

◤谈股论市◢ 大马散装船运 或现技术反弹

券商 ：肯纳格投银研究
投资建议 ：短期买进
第一阻力点：60仙
第二阻力点：66仙
止损点 ：43仙
闭市价 ：-51.5仙 （截至12月14日）

大马散装船运（MAYBULK，5077，主要板交通物流）股价从10月初的81仙高点跌至51仙（本月13日），接近12月初的49仙最低点，因此该股可能出现技术性反弹。

此外，波罗的海综合指数（Baltic Dry Index，缩写作BDI）从10月初的5650点高点下滑至2430点（11月中）之后，再迅速回升35%至目前的3272点。BDI是衡量主要原材料海运成本的干散货定期租船平均值的综合指数。

技术图显示，基于看涨随机指标背离（当股价下跌时，%D线在超卖线下方形成3个上升底部）、强弱指数（RSI）正在从超卖区域反转，以及平滑异同移动均线指标（MACD）正从超卖区域穿过信号线，预计该股将走高。

上升趋势恢复，或将该股推向60仙（18%上升空间）和66仙（29%上升空间）阻力点；止损点为43仙（16%下行风险）。

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/923983

Maybulk is amongst the performing stocks chosen and reported by The Edge today...

Special Report: Not a sweet September quarter for corporate earnings

TheEdge Wed, Dec 15, 2021 04:00pm

THE third quarter of 2021 (3Q2021) was undoubtedly tough for corporate earnings, with the imposition of a total lockdown from June 1 that continued in various forms until end-September throughout the country.

However, RHB Research in its 3Q earnings review report considers the latest quarterly results to be broadly in line with expectations considering the consequences of the longer-than-expected Movement Control Order 3.0. Its misses-to-beats ratio improved to 1.1 from 1.4 in the preceding June quarter.

CGS-CIMB Research concurs, stating that the earnings disappointment owing to the lockdown in the Klang Valley was not as bad as feared, with positive earnings surprises coming from the agribusiness and healthcare sectors.

A quick check by The Edge on 269 companies listed on Bursa Malaysia with a market capitalisation of RM500 million and above shows that less than half or 129 of these companies recorded improved earnings in 3Q2021, while 140 reported a decline in earnings.

Improvements in earnings were mainly seen in commodity-dependent sectors, with higher crude palm oil (CPO) prices boosting the performance of plantation companies, and higher steel and aluminium prices helping companies dependent on those commodities. In contrast, the prolonged lockdown took its toll on some businesses, such as those in the retail and automotive sectors, forcing them to shut down during the period.

We look at how some of these companies performed in the past quarter.

MID-CAP COMPANIES
(MARKET CAPITALISATION OF RM500 MILLION TO UNDER RM1 BILLION)

...Malaysian Bulk Carriers Bhd (Maybulk) turned in a net profit of RM113.58 million in 3QFY2021 compared with a net loss of RM5.95 million a year earlier, on the back of a 38% y-o-y increase in revenue to RM58.68 million, thanks to higher charter rates and lower operating expenses from having a smaller fleet...

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/924357

The Baltic Exchange Dry Index increased 2.1% to 3,423 on Wednesday, a new high since November 1st and extending gains for a 10th straight session. The dry bulk market is mainly iron ore and coal driven at this point, with higher momentum in the Atlantic on relative vessels' supply tightness, shipbroker Intermodal said. The capesize index, which tracks iron ore and coal cargos of 150,000-tonnes, surged 4.1% to 5,189, the highest in a month-and-a-half. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index added 32 points to 2,520, a fresh high since November 4th. On the other hand, the panamax index which tracks cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of coal and grains, fell 1% to 3,221, ending a 12-session winning streak. source: Baltic Exchange

Then the current price is a bargain for medium-long term investors..

Thanks GoHaiDuongGo for sharing...

Moody's: "The outlook for the global shipping industry is changed to stable from positive for the next 12 to 18 months..."

So possible to go for another 12-18 months despite of some ups and downs..

BDI up again... I dare not predict anything but as the matter of fact, Maybulk earning depends on baltic index...

BDI 3,235 -> 3,352 (+117, +3.6%)
BCI 4,699 -> 4,983 (+284, +6.0%)
BPI 3,212 -> 3,253 (+41, +1.3%)
BSI 2,452 -> 2,488 (+36, +1.5%)
BHSI 1,560 -> 1,568 (+8, +0.5%)

90% of dry bulk companies all around the world up 10-25% from Nov low, except Maybulk..! Something is wrong somewhere.. as if someone is pressing down the price...

BDI up again, no way maybulk keep staying at the current price...

BDI 3,171 -> 3,235 (+64, +2.0%)
BCI 4,594 -> 4,699 (+105, +2.3%)
BPI 3,128 -> 3,212 (+84, +2.7%)
BSI 2,431 -> 2,452 (+21, +0.9%)
BHSI 1,559 -> 1,560 (+1, +0.1%)

Continue uptrend.. Should have added some on Thursday when everyone panicked...

BDI 3,115 -> 3,171 (+56, +1.8%)
BCI 4,534 -> 4,594 (+60, +1.3%)
BPI 3,030 -> 3,128 (+98, +3.1%)
BSI 2,402 -> 2,431 (+29, +1.2%)
BHSI 1,555 -> 1,559 (+4, +0.3%)

All up again, Maybulk is going to enjoy big profit if this trend continues...

BDI 3,047 -> 3,115 (+68, +2.2%)
BCI 4,464 -> 4,534(+70, +1.6%)
BPI 2,897 -> 3,030 (+133, +4.6%)
BSI 2,374 -> 2,402 (+28, +1.2%)
BHSI 1,551 -> 1,555 (+4, +0.3%)

The Baltic Exchange Dry Index rose 1% to 3,047 on Wednesday, a peak since November 2nd, extending gains for a fifth straight session, driven by gains in the smaller vessel segments. The panamax index which tracks cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of coal and grains, advanced 3.1% to a near three-week high at 2,897; and the supramax index added 34 points to 2,374, its highest in almost a month. Conversely, the capesize index, which tracks iron ore and coal cargos of 150,000-tonnes, fell 0.4% to 4,464, snapping a three-session streak of gains. . source: Baltic Exchange

Again, all indices go up together... Looks like a reversal trend started to form..

BDI 2,881 -> 3018 (+137, +4.8%)
BCI 4,143 -> 4,483 (+340, +8.2%)
BPI 2,735 -> 2,811 (+76, +2.8%)
BSI 2,327 -> 2,340 (+13, +0.6%)
BHSI 1,540 -> 1,544 (+4, +0.3%)

Baltic Dry indices all go up again..

BDI 2,767 -> 2,881 (+114, +4.1%)
BCI 3,906 -> 4,143 (+237, +6.1%)
BPI 2,621 -> 2,735 (+114, +4.3%)
BSI 2,316 -> 2,327 (+11, +0.5%)
BHSI 1,539 -> 1,540 (+1, +0.1%)

It has been a while since all indices go up together.

BDI 2,678 -> 2,767 (+89, +3.3%)
BCI 3,776 -> 3,906 (+130, +3.4%)
BPI 2,489 -> 2,621 (+132, +5.3%)
BSI 2,284 -> 2,316 (+32, +1.4%)
BHSI 1,536 -> 1,539 (+3, +0.2%)

Complet - PE 118
Freight - PE 15.21
MISC - PE 15.81
Tasco - PE 15.63
TOCEAN - PE -93
Hubline - PE -4.75
Harbour - PE 8.27
Sealink - PE -1.46
Syscorp - PE 26

Maybulk is still the lowest among all!

If take away all one offs and calculate only operational net profit for 2021 (est. 80M) then PE~7. If we take PE10 then maybulk by right should be around 0.80.

Q1 (15M) + Q2 (18M) + Q3 (22M) + Q4 (est. 23-25M)
Total = ~80M (Operational Net Profit)

Maybulk PE is 5 now... With the current price maybulk PE will be ~3 in the 4th quarter.. Try compare with other shipping companies in Malaysia and we will know whether this is reasonable or not..

For me, Maybulk is already oversold and 0.59 is indeed a great discount..

@xiaoeh.. 80M is just operational net profit, i have excluded all the one offs..

Q1 (15M) + Q2 (18M) + Q3 (22M) + Q4 (est. 23-25M)
Total = ~80M (Operational Net Profit)

If include then the profit will be around 180-185M in total.

xiaoeh part of the profit came from the disposed of 2 vessels if not wrong

With est. 80M operational net profit, 2021 is amongst Maybulk's best performing year...

Q1 (15M) + Q2 (18M) + Q3 (22M) + Q4 (est. 23-25M)
Total = ~80M (Operational Net Profit)

We are not buying junk company.. With great earnings and rich cash in hands, this is indeed a turnaround year for Maybulk.. if we look at BDI it's still at a relatively high level, although it has been corrected but turning its direction upwards these few days.. and some experts predict it will continue to stay high for years..

If there's "someone" that controls the price, could this be a chance for us to add perhaps bit by bit? Think about it..

Are we undergoing a turning point of the index?

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-index-gains-for-fourth-day-as-vessel-rates-firm/

The Baltic Exchange Dry Index rose 2.7% to 2,715 on Tuesday, its highest since November 15th and extending gains to a fourth straight session, supported by gains across all vessel segments. The capesize index, which tracks iron ore and coal cargos of 150,000-tonnes, increased 4.4% to its highest in over three weeks at 4,055, helped by rising iron ore prices; and the panamax index which tracks cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of coal and grains, went up 1.8% to 2,333. Among smaller vessel segments, the supramax index added 8 points to 2,243, snapping a four-session losing streak. source: Baltic Exchange

"Excluding exceptional items, the Group recorded a profit before tax of RM22.729 million in Q3 FY2021, an increase of 22% compared to a profit before tax of RM18.646 million in Q2 FY2021."

Operational Net Profit
Q1 (15M) -> Q2 (18M) -> Q3 (22M - 2 ships sold)

Net profit dropped? Are you sure or not?

Will come back in November. Investing Maybulk will be rewarded, just need some patience..

This is a really good opportunity my friends..

I have just topped up.. Will buy more if further dropped..

Everyone in the country will suffer or badly affected if lorry transportation fee go up from RM200 to RM2000-3000/trip..

Dry bulk charter rate went up a lot already and it certainly needs some healthy correction.. Imagine Grab Food transport fee went up from RM5 to RM30 per trip... or lorry fee went up from RM200 to RM1000 per trip.. even RM600-800 the lorry companies are making a lot already...

I think it's a chance to top up...

Good opportunity to buy at low, next week onwards we will enter November.. results month

Miss this opportunity you will have to chance high..

This is a rare chance to buy in..

If you read this Chinese article below, you will understand why even though capesize index is correcting yet maybulk will enjoy higher profits in the coming quarters..

https://m.cnyes.com/news/id/4752797?utm_source=fbfan&utm_medium=news&exp=b

Remember, panamax, supramax and handysize indices are sky high, and even if they have some minor correction maybulk will still reporting the highest eps in a decade's time...

Capesize will have to correct, USD60k-90k charter rate per day is way too high already.. The whole world, our country including you and I will be the victims and suffer if it continues to shoot and doesn't correct..

As for Maybulk, by disposing two older ships at a +75% premium price will turn it around into a net cash company.. And for a cash rich shipping company, what makes us think that it can't purchase more modern and more carbon efficient ships in the coming quarters? Don't forget maybulk bought in 3 new kamsarmax around 2019, at the time when bdi was very much lower than now..

From my observations, more and more medium-long term investors are coming in... and that's really good news... by looking at the history, it can't help but has to go through the process.. if it manage to get over this, 2.00 is going to be a reality.

Baltic Dry increased 3,287 points or 240.63% since the beginning of 2021, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. 
source: Baltic Exchange

Some experts predict a 3-5 good years for shipping industry, imagine a 12-20 quarters uptrend.. maybulk can be a future star in bursa..

Ya. I expect increase in operating profits for at least 4 consecutive quarters.. disregard of the one off la.. Now we have seen Q1 and Q2 improvements in net profits, by looking at the Panamax, Supramax and Handy size indices that sky rocket high, Q3 and Q4 should 99% confirm already.. Really something for maybulk if can up for 4 straights quarters!

Panamax and Handy size both breaks record high, supramax breaks 11-year high.

Meaning = Maybulk 4th quarter earning WILL continue to go up, if this can sustain.

Supramax Index achieved a fresh new historic high...

BDI 4,714 -> 4,751 (+37, +0.8%)
BCI 7,229 -> 7,275 (+46, +0.6%)
BPI 4,116 -> 4,236 (+120, +2.9%)
BSI 3,610 -> 3,618 (+8, +0.2%)
BHSI 2,024 -> 2,033 (+9, +0.4%)

Ya.. when supramax, panamax and handy size indices all went up record high, which company benefited the most in Malaysia if its none other than Maybulk? Maybulk is still the LARGEST dry bulk shipping company in Malaysia, that's the fact. What will happen if the situation continues or at least sustains for 2-3 years? Or we want to wait until Maybulk announce to purchase new ships only chase high..?

@KML889.. Thanks.. I think this round came down could be a great chance for those who previously wanted to collect but didn't have chance to do so.. Next round will be the quarterly result already.. bare in mind shipping companies correction in Taiwan because they went up 10X-20X already.. maybulk only 2-3X from last year March low..

Well, I don't know about Malaysia but I have observed that 80-90% of dry bulk stocks all around the world went up for the past two days.. maybe there are some reasons behind..

Some might need to see the super good results or wait for announcement of new ships purchase only they will buy in.. and that's up to them if they like to pay for higher premium.. i myself prefer to accumulate when the price is still low..

It's good la when we see it yet the market is still not confident, else we might be buying maybulk at 1.00+ now..

Maybulk needs holding power, for me i will hold for medium-long term..

If you can 'tahan' the volatility and hold until at least end of November (better if until next year), you may see the power of maybulk... we may witness trend similar to Harbour after announcing its quarterly results recently...

After making losses for so many years, Maybulk will be totally turned around if the current situation continues..

When commodity goes up, those related companies will be benefited.. but when commodity sky high, the costing will shoot and ends up inflation shoots too.. Yet one thing people will slowly realise, for this round dry bulk shipping will be the industry that benefited from either way because of constraints that could not be solved in the coming two to three years..

With more long term investors and less traders, the price can be stabilised and move up more steadily...