So for me it's just a matter of time, when the cuci session is over, it will shoot when it wants to..

Something for us to ponder.. if so many loss making goreng stocks/penny stocks in Bursa can go up 500%-1000%, what is so difficult for a profit exploding Maybulk to move 100%-150% in 6 months time? Think about it..

My target to earn 100%-150% won't change even though people selling down because I know all these are temporary.. I won't let go my share.. I know many have already sold.. but it's ok.. I know what I'm doing

@Jeffson87.. I believe Maybulk will fly.. Just the matter of time..

@hng33.. exactly, Maybulk is the best defensive counter to buy and hold during this chaotic time in Malaysia.. Great opportunity to buy at offer price..

In fact, we are quite lucky because not everyone sees this.. But sooner or later I believe funds will pour into Maybulk.. That's why it's the best time to position ourselves at the lows or during retreats..

Just think carefully, while businesses and factories closed in many sectors in Malaysia, dry bulk ships are sailing freely on the oceans, and they are paid 5-6 times higher charter rate to do so with all the ships fully operate.. somemore the advance bookings are taken for months.. this will be a turnaround story for Maybulk, and the best financial year after such a long time (>10 years) so when people panic sell, what should we do? For me, I'm still holding and will add more if drops further..

@pingdan Totally agree.. Added some at 685 and 69 yesterday.. Still maintain 1.20-1.50 target price in coming 1-2 quarters.

For me, Maybulk is still one of the best counters to invest during this chaotic period in Malaysia.. Let's see, time will tell..

No worries.. I think it's a good opportunity for us to collect..

One single year performance better than 10 accumulate years before this! Reported the article above.

Maybulk still not too much movement compared to some of the Taiwan dry bulk companies that had moved more than 1000%... Is this a great chance for Malaysian investors..? Another glove story in making?

Another glove story in making...?

航運1年獲利抵20年 專家曝下季運價趨勢

工商時報 數位編輯 2021.07.08

有航運分析師認為，今年航運業獲利超乎想像，航運商有機會達到年賺1,000億美元的目標，將彌補過去20年的虧損。圖／美聯社

由於需求提升、缺櫃及塞港等因素，帶動全球運價飆升，貨櫃、散裝航運業者營收長紅，被外界戲稱，十年不開張，一開張賺十年，有航運分析師認為，今年航運業獲利超乎想像，航運商有機會達到年賺1,000億美元（約新台幣2.8兆）的目標，將彌補過去20年的虧損，此外有專家認為，目前市場需求仍在高檔，下一季運價很難下跌，即使沒有上漲仍會保持目前的高水準。

Americanshipper報導，先前有許多專家認為運價將在下半年出現回檔，但事實證明，航運業行情仍相當火燙，費率不僅沒有下降，還持續上升，此外，英國海運諮詢機構Drewry的最新報告指出，「原先我們預估航運商一年能賺800億美元，但若運價持續上漲，有機會看到獲利1,000億美元的表現。」。

航運諮詢機構Vespucci Maritime執行長Lars Jensen表示，「目前航運業的狀況與過往的表現相反，從本質上來說，業者將在1年內彌補過去20年來的虧損。」

挪威運費報價平台Xeneta創辦人Patrik Berglund則說，「目前閒置噸位僅1％，與一年前的10％相比，我很難看到情況會在短期內好轉，且明年需求大於供應的狀況仍會持續，這對客戶來說是一個壞消息。」

標普全球普氏貨櫃貨運市場專家George Griffiths則表示：「我原本以為農曆新年過後費率會開始下降，但六個月後運價仍然很高，甚至還在增加，目前的需求來到前所未有的高點，對於下一季來說，我們認為費率即使沒有上漲也會保持現在的高檔，而且肯定不會從現在的水準下跌。」（中時新聞網 郭宜欣）

SHIPPING: Robust commodity demand to spur dry bulk rally into Q3

• 08 Jul 2021 | 08:21 UTC

• Author Carina Li  Shriram Sivaramakrishnan  Isaac Eio 
• Editor Aastha Agnihotri 
• Commodity Agriculture,  Coal ,  Electric, Power,  Metals,  Shipping

HIGHLIGHTS
Stimulus-driven projects driving bulk demand
Strong grain trade supporting sub-Capesize sector
Rejigging of coal trade routes helping

The surging demand for infrastructure-related commodities such as iron ore and coal, along with minor bulks such as aggregates, clinker, limestone is likely to help fuel the dry bulk market rally into the third quarter, with freight levels and time charter earnings setting new records.

The dry bulk market has been on a firm footing since the beginning of 2021 and market participants expect the trend to continue in the upcoming quarter.

"I expect the peak [for 2021] has not come yet as the [seasonally firmest quarter] is yet to come," said a Capesize ship-owning source, adding that healthy demand for sub-Capesize sectors would support the Capesize rates, too.

The Platts dual Cape T4 index averaged at $30,387/day and $33,615/day in Q2, basis lower sulfur marine fuel for non-scrubber vessels and scrubber-fitted tonnage separately and registered a record high of $44,233/day and $47,433/day on May 5. Meanwhile, the APSI 5 Index averaged at $26,805/d in Q2, nearly surpassing the Panamax KMAX 9 Index at $26,946/d.

Booming iron ore shipping demand

Major iron ore miners are expected to lift their production in the second half of the year to meet their sales guidance, lifting the outlook for freight rates in H2 2021, especially Q3, on the key Capesize trading routes, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics.

According to the data from Platts' trade-flow software cFlow, Brazilian miner Vale's seaborne iron ore exports volumes for H1 2021 was 128.11 million mt, up 10.3% on the year, which showed an annualized run rate of 256.2 million mt, while Vale's iron ore production guidance for 2021 was 315-335 million mt.

Australian mining major Rio Tinto exported 148.83 million mt during H1 2021, down 8% on the year, with an annualized export run rate of 297.7 million mt. The miner is targeting 325-340 million mt for 2021.

Additionally, the marginal increases from other iron ore export origins like Canada, South Africa, India, and Chile are expected to add to the ton-mile shipping demand as miners there continue to take advantage of the strong iron ore prices.

Gains from grain

The strong grain trade year-to-date has lifted the fortunes of the Panamax and Supramax segments.

Imports of Chinese grains -- soybean and other products (corn, wheat, barley, sorghum) -- over January-May 2021 came in at 38.20 million mt and 22.30 million mt respectively, up 12.8% and 271.5% on the year, according to the data from Banchero Costa.

Sale of corn from the US to China is also poised to be firm in the coming quarter with 34 million mt outstanding till August, according to shipbroker Howe Robinson.

Unrelenting coal demand

The clamor for coal continued to power the freight market.

According to the International Energy Agency, or IEA, the current coal demand growth for 2021 will be 4.5% on the year, with China accounting for 50% of the increase. But the mounting pressure from China's National Development and Reform Commission, or NDRC, to curtail inflation remains a roadblock for dry bulk markets. In June, the NDRC had asked provinces to cut power consumption to curb the rising electricity demand.

Elsewhere in Asia, burgeoning coal and freight prices have compelled traders to rejig trade patterns.

With Australian coal not going to China, Indian coal importers are scooping up this coal at a cheaper rate.

"Australian coal sellers have to discount to compete with Indonesian coal. There is a rough freight difference of $15/mt for Australia to India compared with Indonesia to India. Indian buyers are able to purchase Australian coal cheaper than they could have," said a source with a ship-operator.

Australia surpassed Indonesia as top supplier of coal to India, with a market share of 36.7% over H1 2021 at 39.46 million mt, according to data from Kpler. Most of it moved on gearless ships -- Capesizes and Panamaxes –- with Supramax/Ultramax vessels getting a smaller share.

On the contrary, China received more coal tons from Indonesia, Russia, Colombia, and South Africa, with Capesize ships getting a large share.

Persian Gulf spurs market

Notably, low-priced commodities withstood the relentless onslaught from rising freight levels, which were above the product cost. Exports of clinker, limestone, and aggregates from the Persian Gulf saw a rise in H1 2021 compared with the same period in 2020. In fact, limestone exports from Mina Saqr jumped 51.5% on the year.

"The traders are not really very unhappy with these trades. They are still able to sell ca

Maybulk got nothing to do with Malaysian politics and its business is international and won't be affected even if the whole country riots (which I don't think will happen).. also the Baltic remain at the 10-year high range.. So if it's being dragged down by the sentiment then I think it's a great chance to top up.. Just my personal view..

@Jeffson, I buy to keep for long term one..

What la, I just added some and keep lo.. since got sales today.. you guys

I'm quite lucky today can get 0.73 haha..

Alright.. just top up a bit.. I think it's an opportunity

If we think carefully, Maybulk business will be as usual regardless who become PM or which party governs the country.. So, I will just hold because I don't think it will be affected at all.. just my view la

@activestream, Exactly! Look at how Maybulk rebounded from little panic selling this morning.. Try not to make a decision when you're panic..

Above is a case study from a Taiwan listed dry bulk shipping company. Historic high profit. A turnaround story. They predict dry bulk charter rate to go up in the coming quarters.. they also predict strong demand until year 2023 or beyond.. which can be a "new normal" in dry bulk industry.

航運需求旺 慧洋看好H2運價
工商時報 邱莉玲 2021.07.06

慧洋表示，航運市場供不應求，看好下半年運價仍有向上空間。散裝船運示意圖。圖／慧洋提供

海運需求持續升溫，散裝船商慧洋-KY（2637）營運跟著水漲船高，自結6月稅前盈餘5.6億元，續創新高，每股稅前盈餘為0.75元；累計上半年稅前盈餘24.64億元，每股稅前盈餘為3.3元，較去年同期虧損，營運出現大幅好轉。

慧洋表示，航運市場供不應求，看好下半年運價仍有向上空間。

慧洋表示，從兩方面來觀察，一是今年各國經濟活動復甦，中、美兩國大力推動基礎建設，原物料運輸需求暢旺，加上防疫措施造成塞港的問題，使得船舶周轉率下滑，整體航運市場供不應求，慧洋主要船型日均運價來到逾3萬美元的高價，推升營收、獲利持續創高。

二是國際海事組織（IMO）6月中召開海洋環境保護委員會議，通過船舶效能指數（EEXI）、營運碳強度指標（CII）兩大法規細節，未符合標準的船舶將面臨強制降速，法規將於2023年開始實行，預期將加速老舊船舶汰換，拉長船舶周轉天數，市場供不應求將成為新常態。

慧洋6月營收15.05億元，營業利益6.5億元、營益率43％，創公司上市以來新高，自結稅前盈餘5.6億元，每股稅前盈餘為0.75元；累計上半年合併營收78.86億元，營業利益27.12億元、營益率34％，自結稅前盈餘24.64億元。

去年上半年稅前虧損4.2億元，每股稅前虧損0.62元，今年受惠散裝日租金大好，營運已大幅好轉。

慧洋上半年已處份七艘船舶，總計處分損失約250萬美元，貢獻營運現金流約900萬美元，並有六艘新船加入營運，旗下總計136艘船舶。

慧洋董事會6月再通過新船的採購案，預計以不高於1.02億美元（約新台幣28億元），向常石造船購置三艘高規格卡姆薩型散裝貨船（Kamsarmax/82,400 DWT），為符合EEDI第三期之環保節能船，將陸續在2023、2024年交船。

慧洋5日公告現金股利基準日相關事宜，除息交易日為7月19日，預計股利發放日為8月13日，每股配發現金股利約1.5元。

Patience is virtue..

When I look at counters from other sectors that have been badly hit by covid.. emco.. full lock down.., actually I'm quite grateful I managed to positioned my fund in Maybulk.. who knows how long only they can open back.. but as I put my fund here I feel quite secure.. and glad seeing capital gain increasing week by week..

@Activestream in fact I got your point.. but perhaps I'm more comfortable with medium-long term style.. Ya I've tried some short term investments too since mco last year, return also ok (10-30%) but my few medium-long term counters had provided me with 100%-200% of return.. and I'm more at ease with them.. anyway, thanks for your advice my friend

Baltic Handysize Index 1586

I hope by having more value investors here we would achieve 1.20-1.50 target price in 3-6 months time.

And as you know, I rather the price to move slow and steady so that we won't attract too many traders but more investors who will be supporting the price by buying and holding for medium-long term.

Hi my friends, for me as long as the figures below maintain at the high range, Maybulk profit will be bullish until end of 2021.

Baltic Panamax Index maintain 3000-3500
Baltic Supramax Index maintain 2000-2500
Baltic Handysize Index maintain 1000-1500

Of coz if they can go higher will be even better.

Haha.. you all are really funny you know.. : )

In other words, I'm looking for more stable price movement in a medium-long term investment..

Now the dry bulk shipping profit is 2-4 times of its cost, historic high was once hitting 17 times after moving up for 7 golden years in dry bulk industry (01' to 08')..

My friends..it took 7 long years for it to reach 17 times.. So definitely not a short term trading if you want to win big.. (For me, big means a few hundred %)

I am not that greedy to hope for 17x la.. Look at other industries that seriously affected in this pandemic and extended lock down season.. if can get 5-6 times is consider super duple bonus already.. so give yourself more patience.. let's see how Maybulk performs in the coming 2-3 quarters.. let's hope for the best my fellow friends..

@Nam Uni.. I'm kind happy he's here so that the price won't shoot up.. if you know what I mean.. I hope the price can move slowly.. it's fine even if it needs some healthy correction..

Nam Uni Min yuan kacau already

A good reading to share... it's an article showing huge potential of dry bulk shipping industry in which its charter rate was once going up for seven consecutive years and reached 17.04 times of it's cost price..

貨櫃船運價最高約成本價7倍　回顧08年散裝船曾達17倍！
2021年07月4日 15:21
▲裕民航運海岬型船「裕耀輪」。（圖／裕民提供）
▲裕民的海岬型船「裕耀輪」。(圖／裕民提供)

記者張佩芬／台北報導

貨櫃船運市場今年運價沒有最高，只有更高，一再刷新紀錄，但是這樣的運價比起散裝船運市場曾經創下的紀錄並不算狂。目前貨櫃船運歐洲線的運價約是成本價的6.8倍，是倍數最高的航線，而在2008年5月，散裝船運市場的海岬型船運費，曾經高達成本價的17.04倍。

2008年5月20日，波羅的海乾貨船綜合指數(BDI)創歷史新高，達到11,793點，當日海岬型船日租破23萬美元，而當時該型船每日成本約1.35萬美元；巴拿馬型船日租最高近10萬美元，是當時成本價9,000美元的11倍。

[廣告] 請繼續往下閱讀...

散裝船運市場運價是從2001年開始走升，2003年開始升幅加大，2008年5月達到高峰。前後長達7年運價飆漲，主要是因中國因素，中國大陸在2001年經濟成長率8.3％，在2003到2007年都是雙位數成長，2008年也還有9.7％的成長率。在2005年，當時船公司高階都認為市場運價到頂了，沒想到又延續了3年。

因為那7年的大好，讓裕民(2606)到今年首季還有159.76億元保留盈餘，新興(2605)有103.7億，中航(2612)有88.17億元，台航(2617)有63.47億元保留盈餘。

目前貨櫃船運市場以美西線總運價9,000美元來算，約是成本價1,800美元的5倍價，美東線1.4萬美元，約是成本價2,600美元的5.38倍價，歐洲線因為主要都是1.4萬箱(20呎櫃)以上大船，單位成本較低，估計每大箱(40呎櫃)成本價約2,000美元，目前市場運價約1.36萬美元，是成本價6.8倍。

上周五(2日)BDI收3,285點，海岬型船日租2.91萬美元，巴拿馬型船3.84萬美元，超輕便型船是3.23萬美元，輕便型2.80萬美元，是成本價的2到4倍，估計本季內還會拉升，至於有沒有可能重現2008年高峰，業界認為，如果未來幾年印度能夠像中國那樣崛起，機會還是有的。

I've seen some concerns about Ming Yuan's technical prediction..

I don't know about you, but as an investor, I don't really care about how Ming Yuan predicts Maybulk (might challenge 0.86 etc..) Even Maybulk drops next week, this will not change my holding and confidence in it.. In fact I've been saying: "don't rush in", "don't shoot up", "go slow and steady", "healthy correction - great!", "low price, great!", "we don't want to attract too many traders.." etc.. Why afraid of Ming Yuan to bring down the price? If it happens again I bet traders will sell (professionals cutloss).. then it's a great opportunity for us to buy somemore (As what I did at 0.67 during the last correction..) So, if you think Ming Yuan can bring down the price, maybe we should thank him instead..

@Activestream.. Actually I am ok if Maybulk corrected from time to time because it's healthy for long term.. Although we expected funds from other sectors to pour into Maybulk particularly during this extended emco period (in which most industries will be seriously affected), but please do not rush in at once as we don't want to attract too many traders. Personally I'm looking at 100%-150% profit in medium-long term so I hope it can move slowly and steadily.

"Defensive yet presciently aggressive.." I think this describes my current feeling the best. You guys like the phrase?

Ok, guys let's talk about something exciting la..

As we know, Maybulk owns Panamax, Supramax and Handysize.. But as we always celebrating Panamax -which has been breaking 10-year high and Supramax -which has been moving at the highest points since the index was recorded, we always neglected the Handysize. To date, Handysize has been moving along with her big brothers throughout the exciting weeks and hit 1,555.. She also has been breaking her 10-year high too man.. Some applause la lol..

I'm sure these three indexes will push Maybulk to a new level in the coming quarters. Enjoy your weekend.

My dear friends, I think we need to be fair to him.. from my observation he still got 2-3 counters right out of 10.. Who knows Maybulk is among his 3 best guess.. haha..

chief999, I am an investor, I don't do trading ok..

Maintain target 1.20-1.50 in 3-6 months time

You guys so funny la : )

Looks like the market started to realize something...

My dear friends.. As you all know our PM just announced emco for KL and Selangor.. Well, i think this is one of the main reasons why we choose Maybulk right..? As we have been discussing here, if lock down continues or emco extended to other important cities (i.e. Penang), how many industries in Malaysia won't be affected, and can still expect improving or even exploding qoq & yoy results in the coming few quarters..? That's why I said Maybulk is the safe heaven and one of the best defensive counters in Bursa during this period of time.. although it's still not very popular among the investors, but I believe more and more will realize this in the days to come and board Maybulk with us.. just my two cents, take care guys

Ya.. hehe..

Those who endure patiently will be rewarded... for Maybulk la.. : )

"Patience is gold.."

Yes, I am begging everyone who reads this: "DO NOT rush in at once please!" as we don't want to attract those traders who just drop by, take profit and go away. We are looking at a longer term investment that can generate at least 100%-150% profit, based on the company's growth in 3 to 6 months time, or might even hold longer if BDI remain strong. Thank you.

Yes... BDI breaks the new high again! But please Maybulk, don't shoot up too fast, just climb up slowly ok, one step at a time, alright....

BDI 3,324 -> 3,418 (+94, +2.8%)
BCI 4,021 -> 4,136 (+115, +2.9%)
BPI 3,827 -> 4,010 (+183, +4.8%)
BSI 2,899 -> 2,921 (+22, +0.8%)

Wa, everyone is so happy today.. haha..

Great news guys! Bdi just broke its previous new high! Ini kali lah Maybulk!

BDI 3,255 -> 3,324 (+69, +2.1%)
BCI 3,987 -> 4,021 (+34, +0.9%)
BPI 3,642 -> 3,827 (+185, +5.1%)
BSI 2,877 -> 2,899 (+22, +0.8%)

updated 28/6

@pingdan ya.. I won't sell.. will hold tight..