What do you mean by "its still the time to get out if you believe its business"?

Remember, folks. Next month the quarterly earning report will be released. You should buy it now if you are interested in this counter rather than chase it when the price climbs up in expectation about good quarterly report ahead.

duitKWSPkita: Only 1.25 makes you content, I seriously doubt. Why not 2.00++? LOL

By the end of this month, the price will surge to 1.30. The price chart technically can tell. The time frame over the wave's shape repeat is approximately one month. So, now it is the period for consolidating. It will further boost up for any positive catalyst ahead.

http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v7/bu/newsbusiness.php?id=1022256

@Icng123: I have gone through quite a number of your posts on several counters and interestingly I have found that you are purely a fundamentalist investor (from the types of counters on which you commented could tell). I wonder why most of the counters that you have picked are mainly property counters. To me, property developers are running extremely lucrative business as compared to other sectors. Plus, after the correction brought by the uncertainty of QE tapering, most uninformed investors were already flushed out from the market and currently most property counters are relatively cheaper than other counters. I have realized that most counters endorsed by you share some similarity: large landbank acquired at cheaper price in the past, acceptable leverage ratio, low PE, and earning visibility remains intact as on-going projects are carried out smoothly. Yes, based on fundamental analysis, it's good time to enter at this moment. But, the theme is not lying on property sector now. Being a small retail investor, should I pour all the fund into property market, it may increase my portfolio's exposure to specific risk in this sector. However, from the recent transaction records, property counters remain sluggish despite the good news of improved earnings just released last month. How do you think about it? Please advice. Thanks.

If I am not wrong, I think positive news on earning report will kick at the beginning of April.

Icon8888: How sure you are?

Why no body else buy this counter?

I really can't stand those speculators' stupidity, hmm. Come on, drop some more.

caven101: If all investors were as informed as you, there would not be stock price volatility in this world. Anyway, good point you have shared!

Icon888: I agree with your analysis and viewpoints. It's just a matter of time the price will break 2.00, taking PE10x as a reference.

Here is the quarterly report released. http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1546601

Why does the stock price plunge today?

This Friday.

@heng88: From the fundamental perspective, the stock is still undervalued given a NAT per share of 3++ and low PE3x. However, technically speaking, you may wait for a minor correction and then get in again.

By the end of February, it will reach 4.50 when the profit earned from plantation materializes. Let's reap the benefit of value investing....:)

@dextronium: You are wrong. It is "at least 20% of its consolidated profits" (from the announcement. It is interpreted as 20% payout of the earnings on yearly basis, not the par value of the share.

20% of EPS will be the expected dividend payout.

TOMORROW MUST SURGE!!!!!!!!!!!!Marvelous!!!!!

http://www.palmoilhq.com/crude-palm-oil-cpo-futures/

Yes. Exactly. After CNY, the quarterly report will be released very soon.

Why panic selling? The upcoming quarterly report is going to be released by the end of January.

Aspen is dormant.

@kimtj: Because I also have heard same news as you do.

@kimtj: Be frank, what do you hear about this counter and why do you recommend a buy call? And, how do you know sale in February? Sound like you know something behind.

Beware!

Their commonality is diversification and generating recurring income.

Yes, you guys are right. GADANG=MKH

GADANG as well!

@Icng123: Wakaka, our prediction is justified.

There are quite a number of property stocks to be picked in this new year. Most of them are considered cheap and the existing price has already factored in those adverse news (eg, curbing measures etc). For example, some cheap counters with sound fundamental are available, such as SBCCORP (Jesselton Quay Project on track) and MKLAND (holding huge acres of land bought before the significant land price surge and yet to be re-valued on book). In general, they have a relatively low PE, high NAPS and high EPS as well as profit visibility.

Previous post made by kcfan:
時間將證明，在印尼東加里曼丹的近4萬英畝(約1萬6000公頃)優質油棕園，將成為美景集團(MKH，前Metro Kajang)皇冠上的寶石。
美景靠產業發展起家，在產業領域奮鬥了二十多年，成績斐然，但每股淨利，始終在20仙水平，徘徊不前，無法取得突破。
該公司創辦人也就是美景執行董事主席拿督曾貴秋知道，地皮越來越難找，也越來越貴，單靠產業要在業績上更上一層樓，談何容易。
看好油棕業潛能
經過深思熟慮，他認為油棕業潛能無限，於是5年前就鎖定油棕為發展對象，全力以赴，尋找土地種油棕，皇天不負苦心人，他的努力，在2008年取得突破，成功的在該年1月18日，買到了東加里曼丹一段近1萬6000公頃(近4萬英畝)極適合油棕生長的土地，地契為35年，可再延長25年，使他圓了進軍棕油業的夢。
經過4年的拼搏，克服無數困難，一個生機蓬勃的美麗油棕園，終於在東加里曼丹的荒原上冒現。
由於行事低調，行軍秘密，只在每年的年報中簡報進展，所以，這項計劃了解的人不多，投資界也不洞悉其盈利潛能，使美景的股價，只是跟隨股市大勢，未有特出表現。
實際上，在2008及2009年這兩年中所種植的2萬3475英畝，已果實累累，首間每小時提煉60公噸鮮果串的榨油廠，已於最近落成，作好迎接大量棕果的準備。
媲美吉隆坡甲洞油棕園
以4年的時間(2008-11)完成1萬5000公頃(3萬7000英畝，其餘為基本設施及少量不適合種植的廢地)的種植工作，總投資額約3億令吉，預料還要投資5000萬令吉，以進一步完善設施，這項計劃的最終投資額將達到3億5000萬令吉。今後的工作是把油棕園管理好，隨著油棕逐步成熟，盈利將與日俱增。
22年需翻種
油棕種下後，第三年開始結果，但果實不多，仍無利可圖，產量逐年增加，到第五年盈利開始出現，盛產期為6-18，即第六年到第18年之間產量保持顛峰狀態約12年，過後產量將走下坡，通常到22年就需要翻種。
美景的1萬5000公頃油棕園(只算種植面積)，到盛產時期，每年能賺多少錢？
決定油棕園盈利的因素很多，主要的為原棕油價格，每公頃產量，棕果煉油率，成本等。
美景的油棕園，地質屬上乘，足以媲美吉隆甲洞的油棕園。我們不妨根據吉隆甲洞的油棕園盈利表現，窺探美景油棕園將來對美景的盈利貢獻潛能。
盈利潛能需考量成本
根據吉隆甲洞最近出爐的2011年報，該公司去年每公頃成熟油棕的鮮果產量為22.17公噸，原棕油提煉率為21.44%，每公噸原棕油的生產成本為1066令吉，以每公噸2958令吉的售價，每公噸淨利為9783令吉(以此申算，如果每公噸售價為3000令吉的話，每公頃的淨利為9922令吉)。
美景的油棕園屬上乘，在產量和煉油率方面可媲美吉隆甲洞，但在成本方面，由於是在印尼，將高過吉隆甲洞，每公噸原棕油的全國生產成本約為1300令吉，美景的成本應該與全國的平均數接近，即每公噸1300令吉。
現在讓我們根據以下標準來計算美景油棕園盛產期的盈利潛能：
每公頃鮮果產量：22公噸。
煉油率：21%。
每公頃原棕油產量：4.62公噸
每公噸生產成本：1300令吉

美景每股淨利增加額是根據美景以10送1發紅股後的實收資本2億9000萬股計算。
以上是單單油棕園對公司的盈利貢獻。必須指出的，這是油棕園盛產期的盈利潛能。
由於原棕油價波動激烈，受氣候及其他因素影響，鮮果產量可能超過或低過22公噸，成本也可能與1300令吉有出入，所以，實際的盈利可能與上述預測有相當大的差別。
上述數字，只是作為參考而已。
美景集團業務分三類
⑴油棕：如上述。
⑵產業。
⑶建築承包。
地庫足供​​10年​​發展
在產業方面，該公司目前的地庫足供10年​​的發展，一路來，產業為該公司帶來每股約20仙的盈利，預料未來數年，仍能保持此紀錄。
必須指出的是，該公司所擁有的地皮，是在產業暴漲前買進，目前價格最少已上漲了一倍。
輕易保持過去盈利
尤其是Kajang 2的地皮，現在肯定已增值超過一倍以上。
由於地皮買價低廉，而產業價格已暴漲數十巴仙，故可以取得比數年前更高的賺率。
該公司產業部要保持過去的盈利，應是輕而易舉的事。
在建築承包方面，該公司最近取得一項6億7500萬令吉的合約，將依約(IJOK)的一段550英畝屬於電訊局的土地，發展為一個新的住宅區，550英畝可建排屋5500間。
這項合約每年價值為​​1億3500萬令吉，以10%的賺率計算，每年將可以為該公司賺進1350萬令吉，每股淨利將增加4.65仙。
讀者可以根據該公司每年從油棕業、產業和建築業的盈利貢獻，計算出該公司中長期的每股淨利，從而預測股價趨向。
必須指出的是，在短、中期，產業和建築業仍為主要的盈利來源，在中、長期，油棕業將扮演更重要的角色。
油棕業將使美景集團，由一隻中規中矩的產業公司，蛻變成具有巨大潛能的成長股。
06/05/2012 17:30

Hi, Icng123. the management can do nothing to deal with the currency exchange rate but only though hedging in the currency forwards market. This is really a knotty problem that concerns every export-oriented company. However, as a fundamental investor, I don't think the exchange rate issue is the most critical problem to the overall performance of the company. The major issue should be the business problem. I admit and agree with you that the the loss incurred by exchange rate change will erode the profit earned. However, price is charged in USD term in international trade. Therefore, when the palm oil price rebound, it means that the revenue goes up accordingly. The impact of exchange rate should not be exaggerated in this case. Also, the US implements a gradual approach to reduce QE, not an immediate cold-turkey approach. The latter will have led to exchange rate overshooting (also crisis) but this approach is already denied by the Fed. The former will gradually lead the market expectation about the exchange rate change to be in line with its actual change. Yes, USD will appreciate gradually but the stable exchange rate movement can enable the company to take effective measure to cope with it, like forwards, which can not be done if immediate QE scale-back is carried out. .

Icng123: Basically, suppose the management studied well corporate finance and understood the pros and cons of several measures of raising fund. According to rule of thumb, a company tends to raise fund by borrowing if it thinks that the current interest rate is relatively cheaper than that exceeds its acceptable level. As the interest rate 3.00% (just the monetary rate stipulated by the bank negara; the base lending rate is approx. 6.50%) is considered low in Malaysia and also the rest of the world as the consequence of QEs. Therefore, this is why the company opts for loan rather than through new issuance of securities channel. Issuing new securities must not necessarily be a good thing to shareholders and this is often the last resort to the company if its credibility of honoring debts is doubted by the lending institutions. We do not think the existing loan is the major problem at the moment. What I expect is the positive prospect of palm oil amid the global recovery. This will contribute positive result to the earning performance and also it will generate recurring cash flow (or income). Suppose the oil price is on recovery, when the price climbs back to its previous peak, about RM 3000++ comparing to current RM 2600, what do you think of the earning of the company. Also, how will be the dividend payout. Plus, it is time for the company to harvest the oil palm for the next two years. Every effort and hard work for the last few years aare going to be paid off now. 2014 will be a good year!

Thanks for those who sell it off.

Haha, again, buy it at cheaper price now.

Deleveraging? Giving surprising dividend? There are full of question marks in my head.

One day show.

Game over.

When it drops, then it rises. Don't be too serious about the few-cent drop.

@kkteng7-: The ex-date is 28th. If you buy the shares before 28th, you are entitled to dividend.

High debt, but high generated profit. This should not be a problem.

No mood eating MAMEE lar.

Tidur, tidur, tidur. Increase in cost just bring about short-term adverse effect on earnings performance. But, it will be more than offset by the growth prospect in future.

Alamak yoh~~~ Why the stock price drops by one to two cents per day. Don't the investors notice the benefit of the corporate restructuring. This counter will grow to like SKPETRO one day. Don't despise it because of its relatively low NAPS and EPS as compared to peers.

Buy, keep for one year, 100% return.

TNS, CCB, the company management jia sai. I can't believe why a company with good fundamental can be have its stock price facing an enduring down trend. They should not say they have no idea about the price movement. They are the culprit of all.

IF YOU CUT LOSS AT THE MOMENT, YOU WILL ONLY BEAR THE COST BUT BENEFIT THOSE SHORT SELLERS. LET"S FIGHT!

HOLD IT! HOLD IT! HOLD IT!