their latest profit 3 year low. maybe it will suddenly waterfall de.

Petron has 602mil inventories. Final Ron 95 closing is 1.89. from a high of 2.30previous quarter. Anybody wanna guess the percentage loss in inventory from last quarter. Say bye bye to your 108m net profit

election come in 2018 BN reduce RON95 again i will laugh at you.

so by all means hold petron and accumulate more now . your calculations with numerous assumptions must be correct and made alot of sense. the share price drop is baseless, jonker sold out on 40 EPS and hengyuan stellar results were baseless too!

if economic crisis before 2019 then too bad u waited too long to cut. if investing was as simple as a low PE, there will be no losers in the sharemarket.

June result already know GG.

September result at most only flat QOQ. because margins wont expand when oil falls

then 30 November 2017 173rd (Ordinary) OPEC Meeting Vienna, Austria. you pray oil doesnt take another leg down and make u wait 3 more months to find a floor. and 3 more months to flatten.


god knows when oil will climb after that. if it climb immediately you also need 6months or 2 results for the shareprice to climb . that will take you till may 2018 results. then 2 months to reach your penthouse floor.

then 2018 is mandatory turnaround year. no idiot will push your share price that year. result wont climb. then u all wait till 2019 lah. come 2019 what have you got to show it? 0% return. nice work.

If OPEC suddenly gives up on their production cut strategy, u guys are toast. In fact turning the alliance upside down w Qatar two months ago is the first step toward competitive overproduction. Iran was the pioneer in leaving this group and no penalties were imposed.Soon more middle easterners will realize that there is no cost for disobeying the pact. those staying in penthouse suite on ringgit floor 7.50-9. u better pray OPEC don't do anything insane in the next few meetings.

Have u heard story of a devout Christian who was caught in the flood, and trust that God will save him? Tersely, many people including villagers w boats, firemen , helicopters came to extract him from the flood. But he turned them away by saying god will save him. After numerous attempts,the flood drowned him. In heaven he furiously asked God why he wasn't saved...God said I have sent villagers firemen and helicopters for you,what more do you want? For Those that have been warned but foolishly hold on to their assumptions and Casio scientific calculators.

crack spread only works if u buy in USD or the currency being measured. and your selling of product prices is based on market rates, also in USD/measured currency. this is not the same for malaysia. our product prices is formula rate, government intervened, only can earn certain margin type of rate, 5sen per liter, hardly market rate at all. oil purchase also using ringgit currency. dont forget ringgit just only recovered from its weakest point not very long ago. the cost in ringgit was recently at its highest. so please lah stop comparing with singapore/asia crack.

does this make sense? maybe u all should question why those people keep using other country's or region crack and assume malaysia follows the same structure. isn't there a better source of info to look at than something so indirect and structurally different? oh right, petrol station and info gotten from the chairman's mouth. and WTI or BRENT which is used by petron themselves. its like the board is explaining and looking at one thing, these fellas go see something else. why nobody listen to ramon or stay on the same page as the board? or read the annual report? oil up margin up, so oil down margin how? instead..go find asia crack pulak. u all evaluate lah. follow petron statement or follow half cooked articles lah.

ya surely the jonker will push it back immediately to 9 after seeing this blip in the article. cuz the jonker made a mistake due to this article? lol. u slowly wait lah. if one article is enough to make money in the market, then everybody is a winner in stock market. so where are the bids? why not buying if u think margins are greater than before.

oh btw, even a full time remisier from nexttrade also saying cracks are declining. even nicely show u the correlation. which is consistent w ommgg and still the tone from the defiants/denials is they are all wrong lol. but i dont see their money parked at 7.10 today to buy also....

because im a full time investor. staying updated with companies is my job. theres no reason to go and sleep after you sell.

@takeprofits, im not sure what is Rxt. but continue to keep it real. its not just me, even cpng kept it real by being wary of the irrational exuberance which happened here. and OMMGG had to point it out the margin crack articles was wrongly interpreted despite him not frequently wanting to post.

probability "oil is not stable now, so the earnings will not be stable"

so the above is your core argument?
23/06/2017 13:27

see what i mean by selective listening. i believe the petronm board said earnings will maintain if oil is stable. so to ask me if thats my an argument made by me? ....i hope u did not just conveniently turn off your ears during the AGM.

did u have a point because as far as investing goes, anybody who says he can predict oil and currency with certainty is in buffett's words, playing a fool's game. which is what u are trying to do. fact is oil is not stable now, so the earnings will not be stable. is that so hard to accept that u must predict? u need to handle the truth

So far have u seen me calculating cash flow and margins etc in this forum? Keep it simple. Investing is simple. Doing all this margin calculation on something as volatile as oil and currency (need I mention hedging?), despite a 5 sen buffer granted by the government. Is that very smart? FA weakness is inaccuracy in estimation u shd have learned that in a basic investing course. Bare in mind 5 sen is a buffer. Not a profit guarantee. A spike can screw that buffer. U r wrongly treating it as fixed profit each quarter. So u r approaching this very wrongly. Earnings visibility is not as clear as u think it is. This is already a big hint.

u all dont forget the mandatory turnaround is next year also, 2018. oil climb also u wont benefit immediately. oil stable also u have to wait 3 months for bad earnings and another 3 months to confirm recovery. u all slowly wait lah. at the end of the day, breakeven, congratulations. all this issues no need to discount into the price ah...by then cashflow how? without information on financing the upgrade, whats the point of calculating cashflow using past data. no doubt petron is growing customers, but saying its mispriced ur research is right is crazy.

diid u notice when hengyuan reported stellar results, the share price gap up and closed lower? after that petron itself reported 40eps, and everyone here was cheering and congratulating, but share price again did the same gap up and closed lower? if all the retailers here are cheering, then who's selling? the jonker lah obviously. thats already your first signal. then u saw gross margins decline in the report, rather drastically, and people are cheering over derivative gains, seriously...its not even core earnings. finally the only hope left is surprises on upgrade and bonus issue, which AGM the chairman said no plans at all on shareholding structure and refuse to entertain questions on upgrade. no institution fund mgrs were seen, only retailers. ron 95 and oil already dropping at the time. I REALLY DIDNT SEE A NEED TO HOLD anymore. undervalued? comeon, it was undervalued long time ago when it spiked to 7, at 7PE...it can drop to 3.50 after that....some of the shareholders here have already sat that same roller coaster. should have wisen up by now.

is that why u are holding the stock?

i already sold after i was dissapointed with the lack of information heard during the AGM, the same day itself, in fact the chairman had no respect for minority shareholders and walked out during the meeting. i bought at 4.24 in nov last year.

these info is in the annual report, agm, and can see at your petrol station everyday. does it really take an expert to know this? really?

when u see ron 95 dropping mad, already knowing about FIFO accounting, already attended petron AGM and was told that oil up, margins expand, you refuse to assess what this does to petron's margins specifically, and still stubbornly find some random article that contains headlines with "higher crack margins" in the internet to back your claim up(talking about another country other than malaysia, conveniently ignoring the ringgit) . finally was clearly told by Ramon himself, earnings is sustainable only if oil is stable. thats puzzling, got pay attention in the AGM or not? or just listening to what u like to hear only?

finally the share price indicating it is not as rosy as your "research" claims it to be also dont want to listen. the problem is not the share price being mispriced , problem is the shareholder himself.

U guys dun have to take my word for it . Just look at what the jonker is doing to this stock will do. To actually think that a 7-9 ringgit stock can be pushed up and down by idiot retailers is so naive. This is a stock only jonker can manage to push ok.

U all see what's going on or not, petron share price is pricing in the future. Whereas all the supporters r giving u historical stuff. Dun be behind the curve lah.

Free cash flow is derived from PBT. Coming quarter PBT will be dismal. So Ur fcf calculation is about to change very drastically. Just hold till August . U will be surprised by the cost curve

dunno why u think that a chance of breaking even next year is something that allows u to namecall, rather than locking in profits and let the potholes pass.. i mean even putting that cash in FD now and wait is doing better investment return wise. 9-12 months down the road, what have u got to show for this? 0% return. laugh die people lah. if the stock is so good, it wont fall like this one lah. wake up lah.

So much uncertainty u all no need to discount one ah.

Rights issue then u gg. In the AGM Ramon said equity financing is possible. And they initially plan to privatize back in 2012 w MGO. Right issue w just give them more control of the company like they initially wanted, just apply a waiver for share float if necessary. By then EPS also dilute. Placement of 30% to San Miguel also dilute. Ur 25 eps not steady lah. Mgo at rm 5 then u know. Market won't even let it go above 5 by then

别用自己的面子而跟自己的钱作对。很傻。

7 support didn't even stand a chance. From the way it caved

U all don't forget oil down impact on earnings is only the beginning. Ringgit later go to 4.50 due to election uncertainty, oil plunge, 1 mdb,( u choose ur poison), r u ready for another leg down in earnings?

Those that still holding u all wait August gap down. Inventory loss kaokao. The cost curve has already caught up. Even u think priced in, jonker w press down ur price ,follow by 3 black candle. U champion u don't sell. 9 mths later u breakeven. Other ppl 9 mths later make 50% profit. U champion..

coming quarter sure cannot beat 40 eps already.

and the next quarter after that lagi lower cuz now oil is finding a lower base.

so u need 2 wait 2 more quarterly result gap downs.

and then finally it might stabilize. whether go up or not depend if oil climbs. that one also need 3-6 months more. u all get ready hold 1 year to breakeven again lah.

then u slowly hold lah. rmb to hold woh .

the nexttrade blog got show comparison and correlation very high what. u dont fall in love w the stock lah. facts already so obvious still can say no correlation. denial dy.

Ron 95 drop 3.5% to 1.91. u all don't wait till the next results and see gap down lah.

those holding warrant gg

later AGM announce good news, then all cutloss this morning regret lol

I think if petron doubled the dividend to 44 sen. Which they obviously have the capacity and ease to do so, then this stock becomes undervalued yielding more than 5%.

IM DRINKING THE CLEANZA TEA I GOT FROM THE AGM NOW

I purposely buy 1 lot for my non nominee account just to attend!

Removed petron from my watchlist Dy. Tired of looking at red.

petron's miles points win petronas. its market share will just keep increasing

Not yet only

the petrol station attendant haha

ya otherwise how to attend lol

thats rm 830 XD

bought 100 shares at 8.30 using my CDS account. so i can go goreng the director at mandarin oriental and eat free buffett

i bought cb on margin immediately after hengyuan results. money i didnt have.

Wah luckily cutloss on the cb early enough.

i waiting for bonus issue dy, the cover ratio is 8 to 1.