Agree with JTShares. At least someone is doing homework here.

[Page 13 of 31st Dec 2020 results]: “As of 4 February 2021, the Group’s order book stood at RM351.20 million, which is expected to last until first half of 2022”.

Just my 2 cents, please do your own due diligence and assess your risk yourself.

Recent info/estimates gathered from IB research sources:

(a) Two battery pack assembly line orders from Lordstown at total c.RM200-250m. Equals to 57%-72% of orderbook number stated on 4 February 2021.

(b) IB research sources are estimating FY2021/22 revenue at c.RM510-520m/RM600-610m. This assumes Greatech will clinch more orders from Lordstown and other customers along the year which is very possible. Also assumes more Lordstown orders in FY2022.

(c) So far, cash collected from Lordstown c.RM80-90m. Equals to 34%-42% of Lordstown orders. It is said cash collection is on track. This is good news. But this can change if Lordstown decide not to honour the payments. Put yourself in Lordstown shoes, if the allegations are true, will you be honoring your payments? Or get drawn out into a long legal battle where the results can take many years? If allegations are false, then it is good news.

Scenario 1 – Allegations are false. Nothing changes in Greatech’s 2021/22 outlook.

Scenario 2 – Allegations proven true. Lordstown halt payments and keep their cash for their legal battles. From Greatech’s perspective, this could mean c.RM120-160m of remaining orders whereby cash may be hard to collect. This is as good as lost business, equals to 34%-46% of orderbook RM351.20m. If calculated as percentage of IB research revenue estimates in FY2021, equals to 24%-31% of FY2021 estimated revenue potentially being cut. FY2022 revenue estimates will also be cut significantly if Lordstown orders are already stopping in FY2021. If these are the potential revenue estimates being cut, then the earnings estimates being cut could be equally as large. Those buying at c. 40x forward PE are in fact buying at higher forward PE if 2021/22 earnings estimates are to be cut.

Scenario 3 – Allegations proven true. Greatech manages to secure the pending cash payments. Greatech manages to find another customer to replace Lordstown. This is possible. Long-term outlook should remain unchanged, although there will certainly be some lack of order visibility in the short-term.

Share price has come down c.23% from peak RM6.40 to now RM4.90. The earlier decline in technology shares is attributed to the increasing 10 yield US yields. The higher risk-free rate, the higher the discount rate, the lower valuation of future free cash flow, the lower the fair value of stocks.

Before the Lordstown news, Greatech shares at RM 5.63 (12th March 2021). Now at RM4.90. The decline is only c.13%. This is considered a small decline compared to the potential cut of 34-46% in orderbook and potential cut of 24-31% of revenue and earnings estimates in Scenario 2.

There are a few scenarios that can happen. Please assess the risk and do your own due diligence.

It is about the future revenue, profits and free cash flow per share that determines the value of a stock.

good point investmalaysia8. Inari has a long-term customer in Broadcom/Apple. They have been around for a long time.

Lordstown listed last year through a SPAC. Lordstown is not Tesla with proven product and technology. Keep in mind they are allegations until proven true. If proven untrue, good. If proven true, it is not good. Hopefully more clarity soon.

read comments above, there are some info. kindly do your own risk assessment and due diligence.

Numbers are from various IB research sources. Also mentioned cash collection c.RM80-90m (of c.RM200-250m order book from Lordstown) and that cash collection is on track.

Orderbook is not revenue yet but they are imputed into consensus revenue projections which are subject to revisions. There should be more clarity coming up in reports and media in the near future.

Do assess the risk yourself and do your due diligence. Overall good company but potentially shady customer. If cash collection is according to plan, it should be fine. Potentially many scenarios.

It is about the future revenue, profits and free cash flow per share that determines the value of a stock.

The question is how much of Lordstown orders are imputed into consensus estimates and what is that as a percentage of 2021/22 consensus revenue estimates. Gathered that (a) there are few battery pack assembly line orders from Lordstown at total c.RM200-250m (b) 2021/22 consensus revenue is c.RM515m/RM600m as of now.

If allegations are true, it is dangerous waters. However, they remain allegations as of now.

https://hindenburgresearch.com/lordstown/

@ Melvin Lim, I think highly likely as Broadcom has indicated, at least, sustained quarter-on-quarter strength for 9 month period (Jul 20-Mar 21). Mainly iPhone 12.

Surely this will be higher year-on-year for Inari especially versus a lackluster Jul-June 20

Net profit RM70m (1Q FY 06/21) is about 30% of consensus' full-year FY 06/21 net profit forecast of RM236m (Bloomberg, 18 analysts). Very much ahead of consensus' forecast

Also marking a new all-time high quarterly net profit since IPO

YTL cement bought this at 3.75. That's at least where it should be worth, at the minimum. Also agree with all the comments above on extremely consolidated cement supply at Peninsular M'sia

more positive signs from CEO?

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3105485

Agree with bullrun18. And rather listen to the recent clues from CEO Mukri via his share purchases than those who comment for the sake of commenting

whether announcement is tmr or end Nov, it does not matter as much as the CEO on the chemical side (Mukri bin Harun) buying at RM2.26-2.28 after the share price has rallied so much in the month. For those with at least half a brain, should know this is an obvious positive sign

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3104015

https://www.ccmberhad.com/leadership.php#management-team

for those paying attention, the recent bursa announcement seem to have a strongly positive hint on what is likely to happen in the short term

does not get clearer than this

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3102169

Question now is the control premium that buyer is willing to pay. PNB's stake sale is a controlling stake, usually a control premium above NTA is the practice.

Control premium here ranges frm 20-70% above NTA.
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/deals/control-premium/

and CCM is probably majority supplier of the chemicals to glovemakers. A takeover by Top Glove is not so good for the other big 3. A takeover fight is possible.

sounds likely Hush. CCM is tiny as a percentage of any of the glovemakers' market cap.

Up 10% this morning, more to come...

KLCI is down 2% today, many are down, CCM is up 4%. Clearly something is positively brewing

from Bloomberg, 13 analysts cover the stock. TP ranges from 1.35-1.80. Average 1.56

yes also noticed company buy back shares almost everyday alongside with large funds

that is exactly right bullrun. Meaning there is an opportunity for us now to accumulate. When the news is official and likely to, the share price will shoot up to the offer price and there will be no time to buy......

heard > 2.50. possibly by month end

1 time book value 1.89. PNB sale should be at or above book...