Pfizer says earliest COVID-19 vaccine application to U.S. regulators would be after election


Pfizer’s comments on its time line raise the possibility of U.S. authorization of a coronavirus vaccine this year, a key step in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic, which has killed more than a million people and ravaged the global economy.

Moderna could also apply for an emergency use authorization (EUA) this year. It has said that it may have interim data on its 30,000 person trial as soon as November.


https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-pfizer/pfizer-says-could-apply-for-u-s-emergency-use-approval-for-vaccine-in-late-november-idUSKBN2711FK

Dr Kenneth Gerard Pereira is the founder and Managing Director of Hibiscus since 2010.

According to Financial statements end 30 June 2020, page 102 , Dr Kenneth's total annual salary, bonus and benefits for FY2020 were around RM 5 millions.

Dr Kenneth is willing to invest his hard earn money from RM 8 millions to RM 50 millions to purchase CRPS, with conversion price of RM 0.66.

If we believe in Dr Kenneth, why we still hesitate to buy Hibiscus with RM 0.51 ?

EnQuest buys Exxon’s interest in offshore Malaysia fields
--13 June 2014

Following completion, the transaction is estimated to contribute an additional 5,000 Boepd to the Company’s net production and 11.0 MMboe to net 2P reserves

The economic date of the transaction is 1 January 2014 and the US$67.0 million cash consideration is to be subject to an interim period adjustment on completion.


https://www.offshore-energy.biz/enquest-buys-exxons-interest-in-offshore-malaysia-fields/


Brent oil price in June 2013 till Dec 2013 was ranging USD 100-117.

With current low Brent price, hopefully Hibiscus can get a good bargain

Jeff Bezos, founder, chairman, CEO, and president of Amazon is the richest man in the world. Once in a meeting with Warren Buffett, he asked America’s most prolific investor, your investment thesis is so simple. You’re the second richest guy in the world, and it’s so simple. Why doesn’t everyone just copy you?”

Warren Buffett responded Jeff by saying, “Because nobody wants to get rich slow.”

Resort World New York City Reopening

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OcVJTtkLMs8



Resort World Catskills Reopening Vlog

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2_voChRd6c

For 4Q20, OPEX of North Sabah is USD 10.27 and Anasuria is USD 14.29. For Unit Production Cost (UPC) , average UPC for North Sabah = USD 15, average UPC for Anasuria = USD 18.50.

The North Sabah segment recorded revenue and gross profit of RM36.7 million and RM16.0 million respectively. Gross profit margin achieved 43.6% with average realised oil price of USD31.79 per bbl. Anasuria has no offtake of oil for 4Q20. For FY2021, Hibiscus plans to sell 8 offtakes from North Sabah, and 4 offtakes from Anasuria.

Base on
1)North Sabah able to achieve gross profit margin of 43.6% with average realised oil price of USD31.79 per bbl,
2) North Sabah crude oil is very good quality and it can be sold USD 4 to 5 more expensive than Brent market price,
3)In April 2020, Hibiscus signed a deed of supply and collaboration with Trafigura. Hibiscus has locked in future sales of 750,000 bbls at an average price of USD 35/bbl at North Sabah.

I think it is safe to say that Hibiscus will make profit if Brent price more than USD 35.



For risk of future impairment loss, Hibiscus has 4 important assets which are North Sabah, Anasuria, Marigold and Australia. North Sabah and Anasuria still can make profit with low Brent price. So less likely impairment loss. In October 2018, Hibiscus bought 50% of Marigold with USD 37.5 million. Marigold is a very good value oil field and still under development phase. Hibiscus might spend extra USD 100 - 150 million by 2022 to develop Marigold. Marigold will produce first oil by 2023.

Australia assets wont produce profit with current low Brent price. So Hibiscus wrote off almost RM 200 million impairment loss for Australia assets. In “ corporate insight” presentation organized by CGS CIMB, Dr Kenneth mentioned that there will be no future impairment loss after Australia


https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=737872883441014&ref=watch_permalink

SEAM Alert: Petrofac considers sale of Malaysian assets, including a stake in Block PM-304

https://connect.ihsmarkit.com/upstream-insight/article/heroldReports/136205/seam-alert-petrofac-considers-sale-of-malaysian-assets-including-a-stake-in-block-pm-304




SEAM Alert: Repsol weighing sale of Malaysian assets

https://connect.ihsmarkit.com/upstream-insight/article/heroldReports/136390/seam-alert-repsol-weighing-sale-of-malaysian-assets





Exxon Mobil Weighs Sale of Malaysian Offshore Assets

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-09/exxon-mobil-is-said-to-weigh-sale-of-malaysian-offshore-assets

SEAM Alert: Petrofac considers sale of Malaysian assets, including a stake in Block PM-304

https://connect.ihsmarkit.com/upstream-insight/article/heroldReports/136205/seam-alert-petrofac-considers-sale-of-malaysian-assets-including-a-stake-in-block-pm-304




SEAM Alert: Repsol weighing sale of Malaysian assets

https://connect.ihsmarkit.com/upstream-insight/article/heroldReports/136390/seam-alert-repsol-weighing-sale-of-malaysian-assets





Exxon Mobil Weighs Sale of Malaysian Offshore Assets

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-09/exxon-mobil-is-said-to-weigh-sale-of-malaysian-offshore-assets

Oil & Gas - Energy Transition Amid Covid-19 Constraints


we maintain our crude oil price forecast at US$40–US$45/barrel for 2020, in line with Petronas’ nearterm view, and US$45–US$50/barrel for 2021. For comparison, the EIA’s Short-Term Outlook projects crude oil price at US$41/barrel for 2020 and US$50/barrel for 2021.


Oil price could recover to a base-case scenario of US$75/barrel in late 2022 from the curtailment of global oil production as demand gradually improve, which could set the next down cycle in 2023–024. However, a more volatile upcycle could mean over-US$90/barrel prices by mid-2022, followed by a more drastic collapse to US$30/barrel in 2024 from potential overinvestments.

Corporate action is likely with Exxon Mobil planning to divest assets in the UK, Germany, Australia, Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia. Repsol and Petrofac also plan to exit Malaysia.



https://www.amequities.com.my/documents/20126/0/Oil+%26+Gas+Sector+200918.pdf/2bc55708-0a5f-59e3-9913-7e1b07d21e73?t=1600390563640

Reopened Malaysia IR aiding Genting rebound says Nomura

The Nomura report authors stated: “We expect Resorts World Genting to stage a gradual recovery over the coming quarters, with a sharp inflection come financial-year 2022, with the opening of the theme park.”



https://www.ggrasia.com/reopened-malaysia-ir-aiding-genting-rebound-says-nomura/

I still new to GENM. I just follow progress of GENM since March 2020. These are summary of Empire Resorts. Please correct me if I am wrong.

Empire Resorts is a company that owns the Monticello Raceway in the Catskill Mountains 90 miles (140 km) from New York City. Monticello Gaming and Raceway is a harness racing track and racino in Monticello, Sullivan County, New York. The casino at the raceway operates under a state license permitting slot machines at designated race tracks

2003 : Empire Resorts was founded in 2003 through a consolidation of Alpha Hospitality and Catskill Development LLC, a company that had purchased the Monticello Raceway in 1996. In 2003 Empire Resorts became a NASDAQ Global Market company

2009 : In August 2009, Kien Huat Realty (KH) invested $55 million in new equity capital, which represented just below 50% of the voting power of Empire Resorts.

2015: In December 2015, Empire Resorts received a full gaming license by New York State Gaming Commission. Empire planned to build an 18-story casino, hotel and entertainment complex after being rewarded with this new license.

2016: In February 2016, Kien Huat Realty purchased $290 million worth of shares, giving the firm 88.7% ownership of Empire Resorts. All proceeds from the sale of shares will be used for the project development. Empire also borrowed $545 million for this project.

2017: In April 2017, this project was named as Resorts World Catskills, from Montreign Resort Casino

2018 : Resorts World Catskills ( RWC) opened on February 8, 2018. The property features 65,000 square feet (6,000 m2) of gaming space with 150 table games and over 1,600 slot machines, and an 18-story hotel tower with 332 suites. During the period between the casino's February 2018 opening and June 2019, the company reported $211.5 million in losses.

2019:
In August 2019, an SEC filing indicated that Empire Resorts was considering bankruptcy.

6 August 2019 : Genting Malaysia and KH had entered into a binding term sheet for GenUSA to acquire the 13.2 million shares in Empire at US$9.74 each for about US$128.6 million (RM538.8 million). This caused GENM share price dipped 12% in a day.

4 Nov 2019 : GENM purchased 13.2 million shares in Empire Resorts Inc from Kien Huat(KH). GENM holds a 38.3% equity stake in Empire on an undiluted basis and 33.3% on a fully diluted basis assuming full conversion of all preferred stock currently outstanding into Empire's common stock.

18 Nov 2019 : delist all Empire common stock from the Nasdaq

2020 :
16 March 2020 : RWC shut down due to COVID-19

19 March 2020 : GENM subscribed for up to USD40.0 million (or RM174.8 million) of Series G Preferred Stock of Empire for the purposes of a refinancing plan and working capital. Number of shares of Common Stock issuable upon conversion is limited to a cap of 49% of total issued and outstanding Common Stock.

July 2020 ; Empire launched a USD475 million senior secured notes (“Bond”) offering. However, the completion of the Bond offering has been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

9 Sept 2020: RWC reopened

11 Sept 2020 : GENM has entered into a new subscription agreement with Empire Resorts to subscribe for Series L Preferred Stocks with US$150 million (RM625 million). Assuming the full conversion of Series L Preferred stocks to common stock, GENM's effective shareholding in common stock will increase to approximately 57% in 2030.


For the financial year ended 2019, RWC registered a 48% growth in total gross gaming revenue to US$208.7mil from US$140.6mil previously.
Since the new management was appointed in the fourth quarter of 2019, the operating performance of RWC has significantly improved over prior year. Prior to its temporary closure in mid-March 2020, RWC’s gaming revenue grew by 31% as compared to the same period in 2019 and the property registered earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (“EBITDA”) of USD 2 million (or approximately RM 8 million) in the first two months of 2020, an increase of USD10 million(or approximately RM 42 million) from the same period last year

RWC is one of the newest and highest quality gaming assets in the northeast U.S., with over USD 900 million invested. It is one of the closest gaming facilities to New York City offering live table games including Baccarat and Blackjack. ( As mentioned in ‘Announcement” , 15 August 2019 in GENM website)

Total equity injection from GENM to Empire is RM 538.8 million + RM 174.8 million + RM 625 million = RM 1,338.6 million

Assuming GENM owns 57% of RWC, that means the current value of RWC is RM 1,338.6 million ÷ 0.57 = RM 2,348 million ( USD 568 million ).

Bill Gates doesn’t expect a virus vaccine before year-end — but he says one drugmaker has the best chance



“The only vaccine that if everything went perfectly, might seek the emergency use license by the end of October, would be Pfizer,” Gates said.

Over the weekend, Pfizer made a request to the FDA to expand the late-stage trial to include up to 44,000 participants, up from its earlier target of 30,000.

“I do think once you get into, say, December or January, the chances are that at least two or three will (seek approval) — if the effectiveness is there,” the Microsoft co-founder said.



https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/15/bill-gates-doesnt-expect-a-coronavirus-vaccine-before-year-end.html

Citi Bank Sees $60 Oil In 2021


Another major bank, Goldman Sachs, also sees prices hitting $60 a barrel and even more next year.

Goldman Sachs expects Brent Crude to reach $65 a barrel in the third quarter of 2021, although it could end the year lower, at $58 a barrel.


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Citi-Bank-Sees-60-Oil-In-2021.html

GEN Malaysia minority shareholders no say on Empire cash


“The latest transaction is also not going to be subject to a shareholder vote,” said Nomura. This was on the basis that the aggregate percentage ratio of Genting Malaysia’s related-party transactions with Empire Resorts over the last rolling 12-month period was 4.4 percent – based on management calculations – which was “below the 5 percent threshold needed to trigger a minority-shareholder approval vote”.


The research memo said that “one mild positive” from news of the US$150-million injection of cash was that “there cannot be any more material related-party transactions until September next year without triggering a shareholder vote.



https://www.ggrasia.com/gen-malaysia-minority-shareholders-no-say-on-empire-cash/

These are copy paste from 27 pages of “announcement” documents from Hibiscus website. What will happen to Hibiscus common shares if Hibiscus is able to raise total of RM 2 Billion ( issue 2 Billion unit of CRPS ) with the first tranche of CRPS only.

Scenario 1 : optional conversion
the CRPS holders are provided with an option to convert all or part of their CRPS into new Hibiscus Shares at any time during the Conversion Period. --page 17
→ That means, CRPS holders can convert their CRPS to Hibiscus new common shares anytime they want. But they only can make profit if the Hibiscus market price is more than RM 0.66.
→ If the Hibiscus market price is less than RM 0.66, most likely the CRPS holders will hold their CRPS and enjoy the 4% of dividend per year.

Scenario 2 : Mandatory conversion
i) Upon completion of an Acquisition at any time up to 30 days before the Maturity Date, the CRPS will be mandatorily converted into new Hibiscus Shares at the Conversion Price --page 5
ii) minimises unnecessary dilution to the existing shareholders as the CRPS are mandatorily converted only in the event of Acquisitions. --page 17
→ That means, if the Hibiscus market price lower than RM 0.66 and nobody converts their CRPS to new Hibiscus shares, if Hibiscus uses up all the RM 2 Billion to buy 3 producing assets, all these 2 Billion units of CRPS will be converted automatically to 3.03 Billion of new Hibiscus common shares with conversion price RM 0.66.
→ If Hibiscus is able to raise RM 2 Billion but just uses RM 1 Billion to buy 1 or 2 producing assets, only 1 Billion units of CRPS will be converted automatically to 1.515 Billion of new Hibiscus common shares with conversion price RM 0.66, regardless the Hibiscus market price is less than RM 0.66. The remaining CRPS holders will continue to enjoy the 4% of dividend per year and wait until the Hibiscus market price more than RM 0.66


Scenario 3 : Redemption
i)All the outstanding CRPS shall be mandatorily redeemed by the Company in one lump sum, at the Redemption Price, on the Maturity Date,.... --page 5
ii) Any remaining amount after the Permitted Utilisation will be returned to the respective CRPS holders by way of Mandatory Redemption by the Company on the Maturity Date, subject to compliance with the Act. --page 9
iii) Any Net Proceeds not utilised (net of optional conversion) will be returned to the CRPS holders upon redemption at maturity or Hibiscus Petroleum may, at the end of the 18th month from the First Tranche Issue Date,.... --page 17
→ If Hibiscus is able to raise RM 2 Billion but just uses RM 1 Billion only, Hibiscus will return this extra RM 1 Billion to remaining CRPS holders, with extra 4% of dividend per year ( Redemption price ). This will minimize dilution of Hibiscus common shares.


**Maturity date : The day which is the 2nd anniversary of the date on which the first tranche of the CRPS is issued (“First Tranche Issue Date”). --page 3
→ 1st anniversary is 12 months, 2nd anniversary is 24 months. That means 24 months from First Tranche Issue Date.

These are the copy paste from 27 pages of 'announcement" documents:

1)The conversion price for the first tranche of CRPS has been fixed at RM0.66, representing approximately 10% premium over the 5-day volume weighted average market price (“VWAMP”) of the ordinary shares in Hibiscus Petroleum (“Hibiscus Shares”) on Bursa Securities up to 8 September 2020 (the last market day prior to this announcement) of RM0.5972. --page 4

2) In the event that there are subsequent tranches of CRPS being placed out, the conversion price for the subsequent tranches of CRPS will be fixed at a premium of up to 10% over the 5-day VWAMP up to and including the market day immediately before the price-fixing date -- page 4

3) For illustrative purposes, assuming full subscription of the CRPS and based on the conversion price of RM0.66, the Company will allot and issue 3,030,303,030 new Hibiscus Shares upon full conversion of the CRPS. --page 8

4)....the entire 2,000,000,000 CRPS is issued in one tranche on 12 November 2020 --page 21

5) HLIB and CIMB have been appointed as the Joint Principal Advisers for the Proposals. --page 26

6) the Board expects the Proposals to be completed by the first half of calendar year 2021. --page 26

7) The implementation of the Proposed Private Placement of CRPS in multiple tranches would accord flexibility to the Company to procure interested investors to subscribe for the CRPS from time to time. --page 2




What do these mean?
1) The conversion price of the first tranche has been fixed at RM 0.66, as mentioned in “announcement” documents and “press release” documents in Hibiscus website. This first tranche of conversion price is fixed and will not follow market price. CRPS investors cannot decide the conversion price.

2) If the first tranche of conversion price is not fixed and fluctuating depend on market price, Hibiscus share price sure will drop everyday due to massive dilution of common share. This will cause huge loss for current shareholders. CRPS investors also will make loss because their conversion price is depend on dropping market price, plus extra 10% more expensive than 5-days VWAMP. In this scenario, nobody will make profit.This type of fundraising sure will not succeed.

3) The first tranche of CRPS will be launched on 12 November 2020. HLIB , CIMB and Affin Hwang will sell this CRPS to big investors for the following next few months. The sale is expected to be completed by the first half of calendar year 2021.

4)Hibiscus plans to raise RM 2 billion and issue 2 billion units of CRPS. That means 1 unit of CRPS cost RM 1. With conversion price of RM 0.66, the conversion ratio is 1 ÷ 0.66 = 1.51515. That means 1 unit of CPRS can convert to 1.515 new Hibiscus common share. 2 billion unit of CRPS can convert to 3.0303 billion new Hibiscus share. With current 1,588,229,000 shares, total amount of common shares will be 4,618,532,000.

5) If Hibiscus fails to raise total of RM 2 billion through this first tranche, most likely the second tranche of CRPS will be placed out with lower new conservation price and higher new conservation ratio. This will cause massive dilution of HIbiscus common share if compared with the first tranche.

6) Why Hibiscus plans to raise RM 2 billion, not RM 1 billion or RM 5 billion? Why Hibiscus has confidence to promise criteria of payback period ≤5 years and Internal rate of return (IRR)≥12%. Why HIbiscus limits their choice by setting criteria of acquisition of maximum 3 producing assets in South East Asia only, not maximum 2 or 5 producing assets in other regions, such as North Sea?

7) I believe Hibiscus already very sure which assets they want to buy, at what price, with how much profits the producing assets can generate immediately after acquisition. If still not sure, how HLIB and CIMB can convince the big investors to buy this CRPS. If the big investors can’t make profit from this CRPS ( conversion price RM 0.66), not only HIbiscus’s reputation, HLIB and CIMB’s reputation will also go down the drain.

8) So let’s believe in professionalism of HIbiscus management team, HLIB and CIMB in raising RM 2 billion with the first tranche only. This will minimize the dilution of EPS, and maximize the benefit of current shareholders and future shareholders ( CRPS investors).

The conversion price for the first tranche of CRPS has been
fixed at RM0.66, representing approximately 10% premium
over the 5-day volume weighted average market price
(“VWAMP”) of the ordinary shares in Hibiscus Petroleum
(“Hibiscus Shares”) on Bursa Securities up to 8 September
2020 (the last market day prior to this announcement) of
RM0.5972.

In the event that there are subsequent tranches of CRPS
being placed out, the conversion price for the subsequent
tranches of CRPS will be fixed at a premium of up to 10%
over the 5-day VWAMP up to and including the market day
immediately before the price-fixing date




Please check page 4 from announcement

https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=106826&name=EA_GA_ATTACHMENTS

RAM Ratings downgrades Genting arms to AA1, outlook to negative


“Its earnings are only likely to be restored to pre-crisis levels in 2022 at the earliest – against our initial expectation that they would mostly normalize by 2021. Although the Group has implemented cost optimization measures, these are unlikely to fully mitigate the impact on its earnings.



https://www.asgam.com/index.php/2020/09/10/ram-ratings-downgrades-genting-arms-to-aa1-outlook-to-negative/

This is from announcement

Scenario 2
No. of Hibiscus Shares (‘000) RM’000
Issued share capital as at the LPD 1,588,229 764,965
Assuming full conversion of the entire CRPS 3,030,303 1,937,600
Resultant share capital 4,618,532 2,702,565

Hibiscus will raise RM 2billion via Convertible Redeemable Preference Shares (CRPS). With conversion price of RM0.66, the Company will issue 3,030,303,030 new Hibiscus Shares. With current 1,588,229,000 shares, total amount of shares will be 4,618,532,000. With share price of RM 0.66, the market capitalization of Hibiscus will be RM 0.66 x 4,618m = RM 3,048million.

The Board expects the Proposals to be completed by the first half of calendar year 2021. Hibiscus will use this RM 2billion to acquire 3 producing assets ( mature crude oil fields) from SouthEast Asia( hopefully from North Sabah). Producing assets means they will generate revenue and profit/loss immediately after acquisition.

Hibiscus acquired the North Sabah asset from Shell on 2nd April 2018, with merely USD 25million. Brent crude oil during Feb/March 2018 was around USD 60 - 70. North Sabah produced averaged approximately 14,600bbls/day ( Hibiscus owns 50%, 7,300bbls/day) in 2017.

With current low Brent crude oil ( around USD 40-50), Hibiscus has a high possibility to acquire high quality assets with lower price if compared with 2018. Let's presume Hibiscus will use USD 250million ( around RM 1,042million) to acquire 3 producing assets ( mature crude oil fields) with total production oil of 70,000bbls/day. By 2021-2022, let’s estimate current North Sabah will produce 7,000bbls/day and Anasuria will produce 3,000bbls/day. That means by 2022, Hibiscus will be able to produce at least 80,000bbls/day.

Most of the energy research predicts Brent crude oil will be around USD 50-60 by 2021, and USD 60-70 by 2022. For FY2022, if Hibiscus is able to produce 80,000bbls/day with average Brent oil USD 60, the revenue will be 80,000bbls/day x 365days x USD 60 x RM 4 = RM7,008million.

In FY2019, North Sabah recorded a revenue of RM586.8 million and Profit After Tax of RM 128million,with average realised oil price of USD72.81/bbl. That means North Sabah asset able to generate 21.8% ( 128 ÷ 586) of net profit.

By 2022, let’s presume Hibiscus is able to make a net profit of 10-20% from revenue of RM 7,008million. That means RM 700million to RM 1,400million of net profit. With conversion price of RM 0.66 and market capitalization of RM 3,048m, the PER will be around 4.35 to 2.18.

Hibiscus has no debt. So I won't surprise Hibiscus will give dividend of 40-60% from net profit. If 50% of net profit, that means around RM 350million to RM 700million of dividend. With conversion price of RM 0.66 and market capitalization of RM 3,048m, that means the dividend yield will be 11.48 % to 22.96%.

So, if you have RM 2 billion, are you willing to buy this CRPS ?

TAN SRI DATO' SERI ALWI JANTAN

01-Sep-2020 Acquired 40,000 2.260

02-Sep-2020 Acquired 30,000 2.270



Jantan already bought ( total holding shares 830,000), why Betina still waiting ??

Despite COVID-19 Pandemic, Officials Report Resorts World Las Vegas Still to be Completed in Time for 2021 Opening



The previous site of the Stardust Resort and Casino until 2007, groundbreaking for Resorts World took place in May 2015, and construction began in late 2017. At a cost of $4.3 billion, Resorts World is potentially the most expensive resort property ever developed in Las Vegas.



https://www.shelterrealty.com/2020/08/28/despite-covid-19-pandemic-officials-report-resorts-world-las-vegas-still-to-be-completed-in-time-for-2021-opening/

Resorts World Catskills To Launch New Marketing And Growth Strategic Plan; Casino-Resort To Reopen On September 9th



https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/resorts-world-catskills-to-launch-new-marketing-and-growth-strategic-plan-casino-resort-to-reopen-on-september-9th-301124228.html

Genting’s upstate New York casino can reopen from Sept 9


https://www.ggrasia.com/gentings-upstate-new-york-casino-can-reopen-from-sept-9/

Cuomo: New York casinos will be back in play, with some restrictions



Bob DeSalvio, president of Genting Americas East, said: “The Resorts World team has been anxiously awaiting the day when we can open our doors again to the fun and excitement that our casinos are known for."



https://www.newsday.com/news/health/coronavirus/virus-updates-long-island-new-york-covid19-1.48905472

Maybank turns cautious on Genting’s Resorts World Las Vegas hopes


Maybank said it was currently assigning “nil value” to RWLV in its assessment of Genting Berhad’s status and was downgrading the company from Buy to Hold.


“49%-owned Resorts World Genting (RWG)has been performing better than Genting Malaysia expected,” Yin said. “RWG reopened on 19 June 2020 with ~30,000 visitors daily but now welcomes ~45,000 visitors daily. RWG may have recouped 2/3 of its usual visitation.”



https://www.asgam.com/index.php/2020/09/03/maybank-turns-cautious-on-gentings-resorts-world-las-vegas-hopes/


Genting Bhd owns 100% of RWLV and will invest total of USD4.3 billion in RWLV. If RWLV start making profit around RM 0.5-1 billion, how much value of RWLV will add to Genting Bhd? I think at least RM 10 billion. Current Genting Bhd market capitalization is RM13.9billion

Business of Genting Malaysia already recover almost 50%.

I think you have no chance to buy at current share price if genm starting to move up, unless got 2nd total lockdown

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”
by Warren Buffett

Hibiscus is selling their oil from North Sabah and Anasuria based on brent price. Hibiscus normally sell to Trafigura, a multinational commodity trading company based in Singapore.

Not sure why they didnt use Tapis price, may be due to low trading volume. That means the price can be easily manipulated by speculators and not reliable

Latest Tapis price ( 28/8/20 ) USD 43.11
Latest Brent price : USD 45.88

GEN HK pauses investments as 1H loss tops US$742mln


Genting Hong Kong said in Friday’s filing: “The financial creditors have been supportive and a number of the group’s long-term financial creditors have agreed to join an ad-hoc group to extend their support to the group.”



The firm stated there was a “reasonable prospect that the group will have sufficient working capital and cash flows to meet its financial obligations as and when they fall due within the next 12 months from 30 June 2020.” It added that it had already “received indicative letters” from potential investors, “expressing interest to invest in one of the group’s cruise brands.”


The firm additionally said it was applying for long-term funding from the German government’s Economic Stabilisation Fund. Genting Hong Kong expected shipyard operations to “resume in October 2020.”



https://www.ggrasia.com/gen-hk-pauses-investments-as-1h-loss-tops-us742mln/

for Unit Production Cost (UPC) in 4Q20 (Apr -June 2020)

Average UPC for North Sabah = USD 15
AVerage UPC for Anasuria = USD 18.50

average OPEX of North Sabah is USD 13.16 for 3Q20 (Jan - March 2020)

average OPEX of North Sabah is USD 10.27 for 4Q20 (Apr -June 2020)

Lim Kok Thay's son, Lim Keong Hui resigned as Executive Director and the Deputy Chief Executive Officer of Genting Hong Kong.

This may be one of the terms in restructuring debts of Genting HK. Good news for Genting Bhd


http://www.gentinghk.com/media/1847712/e043boardchanges28aug2020.pdf

Before you decide to invest in Hibiscus, you have to know that Hibiscus is aiming to produce 20,000 barrels of oil per day in FY2021. Hibiscus will produce 7000bbl/day from North Sabah and 5000bbl/day from Anasuria.

Hibiscus is planning to buy a new producing asset which possible can produce 8000bbl/day ( bigger than North Sabah or Anasuria asset).They will announce this in very near future.

The problem is Hibiscus has difficulty to get loan from bank due to low oil price.If Hibiscus fails to get loan from bank, most likely they will get money from right issues or third party investor (Trafigura). This will cause share price dips due to dilution of EPS.
If Hibiscus able to get loan from bank, the share price sure will go up.

This explains why the Hibiscus share price wont go up even though Brent oil is stable and increasing in trend

Recovery in oil prices is expected from early 2021 onwards, with Brent oil prices projected to rise to levels above USD50 per barrel by end-2021 and peaking at approximately USD70 per barrel in 2022.

by Rystad Energy Research



Remember, Sabah oil is very good quality and can be sold at 10% premium to Brent. Anasuria oil can be sold at 1% premium to Brent.

for FY2021, Hibiscus plans to sell 8 takeoffs from North Sabah, and 4 takeoffs from Anasuria.

With current OPEX of North Sabah USD 10.27 and Anasuria USD 14.29, without any impairment loss from other assets, I can predict Hibiscus will make net profit of RM 150-200m for FY2021

For 3Q20 (Jan - March 2020),North Sabah sold 2 offtakes and Anasuria sold 1 offtake of oil.

with average OPEX of North Sabah USD 13.16 and average realised oil price of USD 47.72, it made net profit of RM 24.6m.

with average OPEX of Anasuria USD 14.92 and average realised oil price of USD 50.59, it made net profit of RM 16.3m.

Total net profit from North Sabah and Anasuria in 3Q20 were RM 40.9m

Estimation of net loss FY20

Hong Leong --> RM248.3m
Kenanga --> RM315m
Public Bank --> RM613m


Net profit Genting Bhd for last 10 years : RM 1,272m ( year 2015) to RM 3,983m ( year 2012) , with total RM 19,555m

Meanwhile, the recent selldown on the stock was triggered by investors’ concern on the possibility that the woes at sister company, Genting HK, may extend to other listed arms where some form of bailout could take place. We believe GENT will not intervene and risk damaging its reputation to aggravate the weak sentiment already inflicted by the Covid-19 pandemic.


by PublicInvest Research

Generally, we believe the worst may be over but earnings are not expected to revert to pre-Covid-19 level until FY22F.



by PublicInvest Research

Since the resumption of business from 19 Jun, RWG registered better visitor arrivals from 30,000/day initially to currently 45,000/day with 4,700 rooms opened currently as opposed to 1,800 rooms when it first re-opened.

by Kenanga

Post 2QFY20 results, we now expect net loss of RM315m in FY20 from net profit forecast of RM1.07b while FY21E earning is cut by 40% to account for greater impact from the COVID-19 on GENM and GENS.

by Kenanga

Warren Buffett quotes:

“Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.”

"The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble...We want to buy them when they're on the operating table."

RWG. On the local front, visitor arrivals have been seeing signs of improvements since its opening on 19 June; visitor arrivals per day now hovers at 45k/day from 30k/day initially (averaging at c.40k/day over the 66 days of opening). Number of rooms opened at the hilltop stands at 4.7k (out of 10.5k total) with an occupancy of 90% from the initial 1.8k during the reopening. This can be largely attributed to the promotional packages provided and rooms given to its members. Entry to the casino (currently operating at 50% capacity) is only limited to members at the moment (5m members as of FY19).

By Hong Leong Investment Bank




Number of visitors in 2019 : 28.7million ,
Average visitors per day : 28,700,000 ÷ 365days = 78630

current number of visitors per day = 45000
recovery of visitors = 45000 ÷ 78630 = 57.2%

Wow !! 57% recovery already after 2 months of reopening. Hopefully can get 70% recovery by year end

Forecast. We now expect FY20 to record a loss of -RM248.3m (from RM609.7m ) and lower our FY21/22earnings by -30.4%/-7. 8%as we impute the earnings changes from GenP, GenM and GenS.

by Hong Leong Investment Bank



Genting Bhd spend RM 825m for 2018 dividend and RM 750m for 2019 dividend.

Business empire founded on breezy Malaysian hilltop is stumbling


Earnings estimates for 2020
Genting Bhd’s net income seen shrinking 75% from a year ago to RM515 million in 2020

Genting Malaysia Bhd set to swing into RM227 million net loss this year, from RM1.5 billion profit in 2019

Genting Singapore Ltd seen reporting S$128 million net loss for 2020, from S$678 million net income last year


https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/business-empire-founded-breezy-malaysian-hilltop-stumbling


What !!! Genting Bhd still can make profit this year !!

Crystal Cruises: Parent Company ‘Not Going Out of Business’



https://www.travelmarketreport.com/articles/Crystal-Cruises-Parent-Company-Not-Going-Out-of-Business

Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad - Bottom Line Hit By Impairments

Given the levels of oil prices currently, we are conservatively assuming that the Group will deliver 10 offtakes (against 12 guided by the management) going forward, at an average oil price of USD45/bbl. Catalyst for the Group at this current operating climate is the acquisition of a new producing asset which will boost its earnings immediately. We maintain our earnings forecast and DCF-based TP of RM0.65.


https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/56448.jsp

Genting-listed companies unlikely to partake in Genting Hong Kong bailout: Nomura

https://www.asgam.com/index.php/2020/08/24/genting-listed-companies-unlikely-to-partake-in-genting-hong-kong-bailout-nomura/

Genting Hong Kong’s long-term borrowings amounted to US$2,523 million compared with its cash balance of USD595.12 million as at Dec 31, 2019

Genting Hong Kong has a net debt position of USD 2,144 million as at 31 Dec 2019 ( annual report 2019).

Genting Hong Kong also has total assets of USD 7,977 millions. Property , plant and equipment worth USD 5,574 millions.

Maybank has USD 350 million loan exposure to Genting HK

RHB also has USD 100 million loan exposure as well.

By disposing all Genting HK assets, I think Genting HK able to pay back all the debts. That's why Maybank and RHB share price wont be affected much.

Covid-19 dijangka berakhir kurang dua tahun: WHO

https://www.sinarharian.com.my/article/97829/KHAS/Koronavirus/Covid-19-dijangka-berakhir-kurang-dua-tahun-WHO