Set a lower and upper limit to sell. No use going against the trend eventhough company is profitable. Don't develop "feelings" in stock investment. When it's time to sell, just do it

Fundamentals : At current Harta earning, it will take 100 years to recoup investment. Price simple is way ahead of fundamentals due to retail investors chasing up blindly.

Sentiment : We can see retail investors moving on to healthcare stocks. News of 3rd phase clinical trails will come out soon, especially from Sinopharm, Sinovac, Moderna, Pfizer and Oxford. The vaccines may not be available till 2021 but the news is enough to pop the glove bubble mania.

Fundamentally and sentiment don't favour glove now. Protect your gains before the bubble pops

As of 22nd June 2020 filing, EPF holding just 2.53% Harta and not considered a majority shareholder. Why some people are just plain lazy to check the stats before claiming old news. EPF already unloaded and you still dreaming


12/08/2020 11:28 PM

bisonbull
-------
old news.....
April 14, 2020 15:14 pm +08
12/08/2020 11:37 PM

EPF is no longer a substantial shareholder of Harta and is not obliged to file disclosure. That's why you don't see EPF selling coz likely all sold off.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/epf-exits-top-glove-hartalega-substantial-shareholder

1) Agree that super profit will last for next 1-2 years even after vaccines are available. Will take time to achieve herd immunity and demand for gloves will continue to be strong.

2) New entrants into glove making will be burnt badly. It will take years to get FDA/relevant country approval and by the time the factory starts manufacturing, they already missed the boat. This is not the first time new entrants crash and burn in glove industry. People never learn and simply chasing a mirage. You just have to see what is happening to face mask manufacturers to understand how many of them are in financial trouble now.

3) You have to agree too that the valuation now is supported largely by greed and irrational retail investors. Those simply investing in warrants without knowing the maturity date and conversion rate is simply scary.

4) There will be more announcements of vaccines coming into phase 3 trials and spook the retail investors to exit.

5) Fair present value for all glove counters can be calculated by extrapolating potential earning for the next 20 years. Even after inputing higher ASP for next 3 years and 10% production growth YoY, current prices are all above fair value by a big margin

6) Swiss Bank UBS billionaire clients are positioning for stock market crash end of this year. I'm just a small fish and following the big sharks to swim away.

I have exited all gloves for the first time in more than 10 years and will reinvest into Harta once price stabilise. I could be wrong but I have made enough from Harta this round. Taking money out to protect the gain. Hope all could make money too this round. Cheers

Short term punters and speculators will do well with Supermax and Topglove. Management of both companies are twiddling thumbs and sitting on their profits instead of reinvesting the bulk of profit for long term growth. Harta is on a buying spree to buy land for future growth.

I just disposed off Supermax and moving money back to Harta for long term growth.

@noobietrader69 so you want to belanja us makan besar? Supermax earned just a miserable RM16 million last year. Apa mau talk big just because you sell at unethical price gouging now and earned some unethical profit? A dog will have its day. See in the long term if Supermax can sustain this margin beyond Covid

noobietrader69 @Godlike88, @noinoi, @universeck

Hi friends i have waited long time for this day :)

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/noobietrader69/2020-08-10-story-h1511643228-Looking_for_my_friends.jsp
10/08/2020 9:21 PM

Very good market intelligence by Alonso. Good for long term investors to accumulate more Harta before the next QR. Actually much happier to see the short term punters leaving Harta for the smallish speculative counters.

Harta has the best profit margin. Once market demand normalise, all Harta need to do is squeeze a few percentage margin and those new glove companies jumping into the bandwagon now will be out of business. Study the history and cycle of glove business and you will know why Comfort, HLT, Careplus etc may not be around for long after the pandemic is over.



06/08/2020 5:38 PM

Alonso10 Harta got a lot long term commitment last quarter, hence not able to squeeze the most from them. But next quarter is a different story.

Harta is offering higher ASP than other suppliers such as TG now.

Am in the nitrile glove biz, i have suppliers such as Sri Trang, TG, Harta, Kimberley, Vglove.

If you think Harta is no good, pls sell and move over to Careplus, Supermax, Comfort, HLT and all other smallish counters.

It's true that Harta is never going to be a speculative counter with such huge market capitalization. Even if you have RM1 bil to invest today and pumped all into Harta, it will barely move the price up. Most choose Harta for long term investment, not short term speculation and gambling.

You can make more by speculating in the kucing kurap counters - the opposite is true during crash. If you want even faster win, go to Genting to buy small/big and you can win 100% within minutes.

I moved some funds to supermax 3 weeks ago during the correction to ride on the ikan bilis trend but will sell out once the glove mania overheat and move all money back to Harta for long term investment. Never like Supermax management style but I never argue with money.

85% of my investments have always been with Harta since more than 10 years ago and will be same next 10 years to see NGC 2.0 and beyond into fruition.

Expected punters to switch to supermax for short term gain. Loaded up some Supermax when KYY asked people to sell. Will dispose Supermax and move all back to Harta for long term gain.

Long term, Harta is my choice. Short term to catch ikan bilis, Supermax will earn more money but also will kill the bilis if they are not careful.

Download the full financial report from Bursa website. Read page 11, first paragraph. Harta is slipping in RM260 mil expenses for NGC2 into this quarter. Excluding this exordinary expenses, profit would have soared to RM480 mil. Good for long term shareholders but short term punters will bang balls.

One thing about Harta management is, they never attempt to educate its shareholders why the expenses jumped so high. It's a good capex expenditure for future growth. HARTA ROE is the highest among the glove companies for a good reason

Thanks to bilis who sold

Result within expectation. Only some overly eager new investors will think the profit will shoot to 800 mil. 50% rise in revenue contributed 100% increase in profit. Cash on hand increased by RM400 mil. Commendable result. Those not happy can jump to smaller glove companies. During downturn, the smaller ones will be the first to capsize too

Last quarter nett profit RM114 mil after taking in RM42 mil derivitive loss. Nett profit will be RM156 mil without derivitive loss, based on RM778 mil revenue.

Assuming 8% increase in capacity and 20% increase in ASP (best case scenario), max additional profit only RM230 mil plus RM156 mil.

(778 x 1.08 x 1.2) - 778 = 230 mil

230 + 156 = RM386 mil

Profit RM386 mil based on this simplistic calculation that don't even minus off additional expenses like raw material and shipping cost for the 8% extra output. Cap it off maybe RM400 mil on any upside surprise. Wishful thinking to have 800 mil profit

New baseline demand for glove jumped 30% vs 8% during normal year. This accelerated demand will not regress even when Covid 19 is over. In another word, the shortage will last at least another year or two before new production capacity come on stream. It's a seller market for the next one to 2 years

Just want to understand on what basis below projected profit premised on? At what ASP? What output level? What breakdown price between long term contracted customers vs spot pricing?


AT1mil Projected profit of Hartalega

1Q2020 : at least 500 mil
2Q2020 : at least 800 mil
3Q2020 : at least 800 mil
4Q2020 : at least 800 mil

Total projected net profit = at least 2.9 billion

Using conversation PE of 35 for Hartalega,
Estimated future market cap is 101.5 billion (RM30/share)

Current market cap is 69.5 billion
*Potential return = 46%

Hope it helps
31/07/2020 11:44 PM

It's actually a badge of honour to be the top supplier to the advanced countries. Their stringent quality requirement means few can meet their high standard. Even until today, Topglove still occasionally fails US quality control. Just refer back to news about Comfort and Topglove shipments being withheld for quality issue and you will get the true picture.

Bigger concern now is Trump being voted out, tariff war with China abandoned and Chinese manufacturer ramp up glove production. The current high profit margin is attracting unnecessary attention from new entrants. If Trump gets another term, it's actually good for Malaysian glove manufacturers.


@probability thanks for the views universeck

arent you concerned that 40% of their revenue is from U.S?
what happens if a competitor penetrates there

Hartalega is best managed in term of cost efficiency, R&D and project execution. Chairman Mr. Kuan Kam Hon is wise to pass the baton to 2nd gen to expand the company aggresively while he took a back seat to steer the direction. The 2nd gen has the stamina to execute the vision set by Sr Kuan, which is the best position to be in.

Topgove and Supermax management have legacy issues with human rights abuse, corporate hanky panky and shoddy product quality. Same management are still running the show and don't expect them to make much break through and improvement. Both management are old hands in the industry and facing lethargy problem and often miss the deadline for factory expansion guidance.

Tan Sri Lim Kuang Sia of Kossan is a highly qualified chemical engineer from Imperial College and has a clean reputation. Their recent large land purchase at Bidor should be watched carefully as they may go the direction of NGC ie large scale expansion. Kossan is my choice to invest in after Hartalega. The only hold back is no visible 2nd gen handover plan.

All the other smaller glove companies might look good now but will be flushed out if they are not careful about cost control. YTL at one point dabbled in glove too but failed miserably.

Hartalega expansion is always huge and orderly to reap the benefit of scale, unlike Topglove and Supermax that tend to have small factories dotted all over the place. It's also a good move to preempt the market to fend off potential competitors and secure volume in advance.

Buy and keep the company long term. Your return will be many more folds vs short term gain during this pandemic period

Been a Hartalega investor since 2008 and kept adding whenever I have spare funds. With few rounds of share splits and warrants, anybody with a tiny initial sum invested earlier will snowball substantially. Not to gloat but rather to tell the truth so that new investors can see the benefits of investing long term in Hartalega. Figure don't lie. Just check the financial reports.

You don't have to time the market and jumping in and out of the company as it's a waste of commission and time. Most of the time, you can't buy at a lower price you "took profit" as the share price will rise steadily.

If you check my post, it has always been constant same message - invest long term and don't time the market. Invest convincingly during market dip once you have done your homework. Most sold or froze in fear during the recent corrections, instead of buying more.

Some gurus here are advocating timing the market, spreading panic to sell during dip and buy during record high. There has been an exodus of funds from FDs directly jumping into stocks due to the low interest rates now. Most are likely new investors and retirees. Don't give wrong advice to them as it might wipe them out.

Cheers and hope all will make more money

Yesterday gained one new Merc S class. Today just up 22 cents just another CRV. Those who panic sold this noon at 19 will upset for "taking profit". You cannot time the market. Just stay invested and enjoy the ride up

Some investors simply chasing put warrants. Those are bets against market fall. The higher the mother share go, these put warrants will become worthless piece of paper. Some are waking up to their mistake and cashing out. Just invest in mother share

Thanks supersaiyan3. See today if up another RM1, can buy one more Merc. Congratulations to those who panic sold cheap to me 2 weeks ago

supersaiyan3 universeck, congratulations

Just did a quick count. Today just earned one Merc S class from Hartalega share rise. It pays to be a long term investor of Hartalega

Those long enough here will recall 2 idiot "keyboard gurus" who who panicked and sold 2 weeks ago when market tanked. Both are back here pretending people don't remember. Balik kampung tanam jagung lah.

Only a few here keep collecting during dip

Been holding Harta for more than 10 years. Seen too many smart ass pretending to be keyboard guru and advising people to jump in and out of the Harta to "lock in profit", which is plain stupid. Just take this year for example. Those who held on since RM5 till now are making so much more money compared to those who "took profit" jumping in and out. Those who bought during the euphoria but sold out during dip should never repeat the same mistake.

Covid 19 play will have another 1-2 years to play out. Just hold on to hyperbolic growth

1) It will take min 2 years to produce enough vaccine for the entire world population. Until then, sales of gloves will remain elevated. It's naive to think that glove demand will vanish the moment a vaccine is developed. In contrast, the demand will pick up with mass vaccination being carried out. It will provide an extra boost to glove sales, not decimate it.

2) The fail rate is high in any drug R&D. I have heard news of "potential HIV vaccine" since I was in primary school but until now, we still don't have any vaccine for it. The reason why big pharmas are unleashing a torrent of "good news", in contrast with WHO view that a viable vaccine is far from the horizon, could boil down to pump and dump by pharma execs. Read the news below reported in New York Times

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/25/business/coronavirus-vaccine-profits-vaxart.html

3) Those who bought into Malaysian healthcare stocks are plain stupid - not a single Covid 19 case could be admitted into private hospitals so how would Covid 19 benefit IHH? None of our local pharma companies are into Covid 19 R&D so how would merely repackaging vials for about 30 mil Malaysians make any significant impact to their bottom line?

The herd mentality of rushing into pharma stocks is laughable. The sharp drop of Pharmaniaga share is a wake up call to those naive people

Most Harta employees are adopting the wait and see approach but investment banks are not going to let them have a free run up. Currently blocking price at RM18 and might even push it down to scare the ESOS holders to sell out before pushing up. Most ESOS holders are making huge capital gain so very likely most will take the bait set up by IBs. Still collecting more

Look at founder Kuan family as a good management and philanthropic example to follow. They are the biggest shareholders yet they are willing to share the wealth with their employees. Those small time shareholders complaining about ESOS are likely short term speculators who only care about short term gain to maximize profit.

Good staff should be rewarded and good talents will come to Harta to grow the company to greater heights. You think Topglove high performers will not be tempted to jump ship to Harta after seeing how Topglove screw their own staff? Deduction of salary, cramped living condition etc are so 3rd world management style yet Topglove aspire to be a fortune 500 company. Don't be penny wise, pound foolish.

I've been a shareholder for more than 10 years. Every 10 cents fluctuation will cost me a car yet I I'm fully confident with the slow and steady rise and will continue to accumulate more during price weakness.

Topglove got caught for going against SOP during MCO. News just came out.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/07/21/top-glove-breaches-sop-under-rmco

Typical Chinamen business model and weak management. Can't even get their HR and admin procedures right. KYY buying Topglove is a joke. The impairment cost for backdated payment for foreign staff salary will top RM50 mil on worse case scenario. How can their quarterly result fly with RM50 mil. Other glove company shareholders pls don't kepoh here. Better spend time telling your CEOs to not abuse human right, don't breach insider trading rules and get into jail etc.

Meaningless share split that don't change anything fundamentally. Don't know why so many people like share split to "cheapen" the price

Lesson this week for those new in stock investment. Do your homework and BUY decisively during market crash instead of SELLING and get slaughtered. Don't listen to "keyboard gurus" in internet forum. So many who screamed sell are licking their wounds. It's easy to talk BS during an up market but a true blue investor will swoop in to buy up cheap stocks during a crash.

Just scroll up the chat history for the past 2 weeks and you will see who these BS are and who actually made money. Some of them only have a few thousand units share but behaving like big fund managers. I made RM1 mil paper gain this week alone from the market fluctuation and loading up during the crash.

If you have FDs with such low rate, just start investing on your own but do your own research.

Just few like Mabel and myself keep collecting when price dipped in past 2 days are laughing at those who screamed sell. A few gloaters are nowhere to be seen now, likely got burnt. Might reappear as sour grape later

Some might think Harta management are "too nice" to long term customers and raising ASP too slowly. This is business strategy. Glove business is a long term investment. Do you think Topglove and Supermax can convince customers to take up all their future expansion volume after this bad experience (price gouging, quality issue and human rights violation) ? Customers can move over to Harta.

You can slaughter your customer now when market supply is tight. When supply normalise, customer will go to someone who stood with them through thick and thin.

Some also accused Harta being not aggressive but do you know Hartalega is the youngest and used to be the smallest glove company among the big 4 just 10 years ago? Don't be short sighted and only see short term gain. Cast your sight far for long term gain

Really don't understand some people talking nonsense about losing face. One look expensive but tin kosong with high debt ratio. One is humble work horse loaded with money. Harta market cap is RM51 billion vs Supermax RM20 billion. Go ask Mr Google if you don't understand what is market capitalization

Lol. Thanks for sellers yesterday for putting money into our pockets. Be a smart and contrarian investor. When people sell cheaply like during a mega sale, load up. So many foolish speculators here screaming sell last night and got slaughtered. When they see us making money later, their eyes will turn green and spread lies in the forum telling people to sell and the company will go bust. Can you identify who these sour grapes are?

TG loss is other glove makers gain and biggest beneficiary is Hartalega. Overall market might drop tomorrow as unintelligent investors will panic sell without knowing the true implication. Worldwide glove shortage is still very critical and it's not easy to fill the void left behind by Topglove. Those who has spare capacity to supply to US will be making tonnes of money.

I believe TG bosses will reach out to Hartalega for horse trading. Topglove inventories will be rerouted to other countries while Harta will fill the US market (most profitable) void left by Topglove. Imagine Hartalega taking over 25% market share of Topglove overnight. Unfortunately this is limited by Hartalega production constrain but still a good opportunity to penetrate into competitors customer base

Congrats to all Hartalega shareholders. This is not the first time Topglove and Comfort glove got into trouble. They were valued cheaper than Harta for a good reason. Once you have unintelligent speculators entering the market and chasing up glove counters indiscriminately, you will learn an expensive lesson. Switch to Harta

Lol this is true investor style. Be greedy when others are fearful. Just made paper gain 80k from the 100 lots I bought yesterday. Those who sold yesterday should learn this important lesson

Mabel Very please to continue collecting Harta for 3 consecutives days..

Meow Meow Meow Meow

It's easy to be bulllish when counter is shooting up but a real successful investor will be even more bullish when the counter crash.

Just loaded up more Harta. Those few people always talking BS here are missing in action - guess bola kecut already. Lol.

Thanks to contra players for selling cheap

Lol. Earn less 900k today. Tomorrow will be a better day till AMG approval granted

500k richer when I opened my eyes in the morning. By end of the day 800k richer. I'm just a small shareholder. Imagine how much Mr Kuan and family are making in a single day. Unbelievable

Won't be surprised for Harta to overtake Topglove when FDA approve AMG. Harta could license the technology to the other glove makers and override their their profit with just a stroke of the pen on the copyrights licensing agreement. Overnight, Harta profit will more than double.

pang72 1.top glove 30
2. Harta 25
3. Kossan 20
4. Supermx 20
12/07/2020 11:31 AM

So far made RM8mil from Harta this year. The party will end but not now when daily numbers are still hitting record high. Stay invested in glove companies but pay close attention to quarterly result.

A rising tide will lift all boats but when the tide runs low, the less efficient companies (low profit margin) without competitive advantage will be the first to sink too.

Morons like Lanesra may think you are on top of the world making measly sum once in a while by investing peanuts. You don't even know how to calculate FD earning vs Harta CAGR over the years and making such statement just showed how stupid you are. I have been investing in Harta when its market cap was below RM1 billion till now above RM60 bil. Do you have RM60 mil winning now by jumping in and out and speculating in shares? Go do your sum idiot. If you don't have such magnitude winning just STFU

Lanesra Came in this forum cause i saw sifu pang72 and saw the stupidest comment ever by universeck. This kind of trading mindset better put in FD pls

I made my first 100k from share market by investing in Genting when I was in my mid 20's. As I become more aware of the business model, I don't feel proud making money out of the misery of others. I believe in karma and decided to switch to a sector that could help people and at the same time recession proof. I switched to Hartalega in 2009 and never looked back.

My average cost in Harta is about RM3 plus. Everytime Harta hit new height, I would sell some to lock down profit over the past 10 years, which proved to be a costly mistake. I would have made much more had I kept all the shares instead of buying them again at higher prices later.

My advice to new Harta investors is, buy and keep the company forever. This business is an ethical business and recession proof. You can sleep well at night and be rewarded handsomely.

I sold a chunk to take profit at 12.80 and bought back at 11.00 when IB were trapping the newbies. Share market is not a casino for the poorly informed. You will end up being dim sum for the crocodiles.

Learn to invest long term. Be greedy when others are fearful (during the IB margin cut) and be fearful when others are greedy (like few weeks back when all pasar aunties and uncles were buying glove stocks). Unfortunately, many investors behave contrary.

There are a few sour grapes in the forum and I believe they lost money during the margin call and envious when others have holding power and making more money now. If you have done your homework, don't listen to rumours in the forum. Eagerly waiting for next QTR result in Aug. Cheers

You have any basis to claim ASP won't change?

TokioDeals Dont waste time here, clients already hold their balls, ASP wont change much + limited capacity.
19/06/2020 6:23 AM

Those who bought on margin were given a month to sell down and comply with revised margin cap. Deadline 2nd July to execute all forced selling. Nothing changed fundamentally but IB will not let contra and margin players to hitch an easy ride up. Good to trap those swimming naked now before pushing up in next QTR report period. Will continue to collect more during dip

Yesterday sold at RM12.70 and today bought back at RM10. Thank you to margin account and inexperienced traders. Will keep from now