Getting quieter here. Looks like selling wave is gone. Soon the newcomer here will disappear. Unless some of them still have to cover up. And things will return to balance soon. There is only as much as you can achieve by senseless talking.

Just to give you an idea, when I worked as a supervisor of a utility plant, an operator destroyed the transformer that was tied to transfer switch between normal power supply and emergency power. He did it by flipping switch on transfer station on and off a few times rapidly. Like a kid playing with a lightbulb. (The guy thought the power was not transferring quickly enough, so he re-engaged.) 'On and off' till it burned out. That is another way to destroy an equipment quickly. How things happen in reality.

The new transformer and switch set was 50 thousand dollars. That was 20 years ago. But still, estimate by the IB that cost of repair transformer on AK is 50 million is 1000 times to high.

There is so much not taken into consideration in the Kraken story. HSP are downhole pumps, meaning inside wells, located at the depth of 3.5 km under the sea in the oilfield. Normally, and I do not know contract, but normally, they belong to client who owns the field, EnQuest. Normally, they are electric and named ESP. Hence they need transformers. But here they are hydraulic. They were likely installed in field before FPSO arrived by SPX Flow. Bumi Armada hooked up the FPSO to those wells with pumps inside down below, and now provides hydraulic power (hot water under pressure) to spin those pumps by means of water turbines connected to the pumps. This water heats crude oil and enables it to flow to FPSO through risers, providing a lift. Otherwise, wax could plug tubing in the well . I bet from my work offshore that EnQuest Well Department operates those pumps from the Kraken FPSO. There is always Well Dept, with specialized people that make more money and have better work conditions. They are sitting separately and protect their job. If pump seized and blowed the transformer, it may be operator's responsibility. Maybe there was wax build up already, and power liquid pumped by FPSO by means of HPU, or Hydraulic Power Unit, likely connected to transformer that broke could not handle it.

I doubt that Enquest would allow Armada to operate their wells. Well intervention is way more costly and complicated than fixing things on FPSO. I am sure they will be keen to get things resolve and avoid dispute. They may know more that Armada about what happened. And we are lucky it is the transformer onboard and NOT the pump downhole that is broken.

So, the Kraken will be restarted this week. Workaround in place. No change to anual production guidance for FPSO.

I have a feeling that this 'Greedy Gary' tried to create some panic selling. This guy has no decency in his money apetite while disregarding all others on the team. Even 1.5 million extra per year (resolution 8) is not enough.

I read this CIMB report, and it is nonsense in my opinion. All main accidents are actually predicted and mitigation planned in advanced before even operation starts. Some real emergencies that I personally experienced to give you example:
1. Loss of containment and hydrocarbon leak that could have resulted in explosion and total destruction of FPSO ( I was onboard when it happened).
2. Crane tipping and killing people who assemble below for safety talk (I saw it happen on asset nearby).
3. Terrorist attack and killing of 27 staff by security forces while reacting to it. Mostly by shooting at camp from helicopter by the army at terrorist and hostages. I was on a different asset with same company, so know how it progressed.

Explosions, fires, ship collisions, flooding full decks of ship by cooling water, etc, that I know from Safety Cases are other emergencies.

Nowhere I saw transformer failure as a MAE (Main Accident Event). Most pumps are in sets with1 online and 1 on standby. Surely if critical, not just 2, there may be 3 to be safe side by side. So are the transformers. And you can always get a new transformer from warehouse, fly it with helicopter and have it installed by electricians that just wire it in. No need to break containment. I cannot see the big problem, unless Gary wants to buy more shares on the cheap or it is some ridiculous lack of communication and managing the information bordering in the circus.

I remember similar thing happened about 3 years ago, there was an incident on a different asset, panic resulted and shares dropped by 10 sens or so. Seeems another event shaping up here. Act as you want to protect yourself. This is just my personal opinion.

The way problem of pump transformer is solved is as follows. Vendor is brought in and he:
1. Pressess and HOLDS 'start' button for 5 seconds
2. Upon hearing a click and 'acknowledge light' going on he depresses 'confirm' button
3. 'Operate' switch now has to be flipped to 'auto.' ESP pump is working.

After that, supervisor will laminate the instructions above and stick it on the PLC Panel. That will solve the problem as operator did not know he had to HOLD the button for a few seconds. There will be report that operating parameters were adjusted, e.g. timer set to new delay, etc., to save face for all. Cost of all with emergency service call about 5k USD.

The danger is that instead of fixing it, the management will hire engineers and support team who have NO idea about the kit. They will discuss phased solutions for a few weeks, drafting plans, mobilizing crews, getting planned activities rescheduled rather than starting up the damned pump. We will count the losses as per Nick's estimates. Gary Ch, the CEO will give himself 3 million USD instead of 1.5 mln as he got the task team going and he will be credited for getting things done.

I have seen both scenarios play out many times. Let us hope they just fix the damn pump.
PS
I made up the steps, but that is ususally how things happen and what I saw or did.

There will be no big impact from this ESP debacle. That is my bet. I worked on a large EPC project as a vendor coordinator last year. Big hydrocarbon joint venture. I got 35 critical vendors to be on standby for the start up. 10 of them I brought in, as there were problems using their equipment. In 8 cases, or about 80%, nothing was wrong. Vendors came and just looked, pressed switches, powerd up and down, got things going. In only 2 cases they had to physically do something. Like replace an electronic board. I learnt that the fears and concerns were usually exaggerated. Sometimes just waiting a few days to 'assess' the situation resulted in solutions found through alternate ways.
Let us see tomorrow.

How come there is no iFast here ? It is a brokerage that grows fast.

Even though pump is submersible, the transformer will be likely located on the deck of FPSO. So replacing it is not a big deal. Transformer though critical is not very expensive. They should have redundant one.
Much more difficult to remove pump which would be under the sea in the wellbore at certain not too large depth.
So we are lucky. All doable. Minimum hard work. A lot of paperwork to fix. And I was also thinking about future maintenance which can be carried out. Winmal is right, it can be done, but usually pre scheduling is required, so not much may be arranged ad hoc.

I owned Yinson for 5 years. Switched to BArmada, as I see more reward potential here. Yinson is already priced to perfection. Dividend is the cherry on the cake. Once armada declares dividend, it will be time to head for the exit, leaving the counter to the widows and orphans,

It is also going to be interesting for Yinson. I see they propose a dividend. Investors ponder it.
Better than proposing 1.5 mln dollar for the CEO, Gary Ch. (resolution 8) who seems to care about himself mainly (I am alright Jack, they say, and I had a boss named Jack once).
______________________________________________________
Yinson Holdings Berhad Proposes Final Single-Tier Dividend for the Financial Year Ended January 31, 2023
Yinson Holdings Berhad at its AGM to be held on July 13, 2023, proposed the payment of a Final Single-Tier Dividend of 1 sen per ordinary share in respect of the financial year ended 31 January 2023.

Whatever it is, it appears too much for me.
The counter became emotion driven.
It is NOT going to last.

Let us hope that armada v is going to perform better than kraken. Can wait 3 months extra if they do not get into efficiency / perfomance non-delivery.

I also believe that BArmada will score their projects eventually. Not blamig IB analysts for having their doubts either, as all they see are disposals of assets, business exits, writedowns. Why should they include possible contract extensions when the company did not secure anything new in 5 years as if they cared little about new business ... ?

The AI analysis from robotic sites like Wall Street system is same opinion. Expecting revenues to go down.

But trends continue until they change ... this one will be broken one way or another.

This is a very strange company. I was about to test the waters, but no liquidity at all. Also, could not see their online site. Are they out of business ? 😥

Wow, there is a gold mining company in Malaysia. And what a mess they got themselves into. I guess being a fish farmer, does NOT make you a Precious Metal miner. Is that not obvious now ?
However, the silver lining is that they may move to professional management. It will be good time to invest. And there is silver there too. One should extract all. As I said, my broker did not know such mining option exist. Glad I found it. Doing my diligence now.

I read all IB notes following Q1 conference. Sadly, I believe that Maybank makes the most convincing case. The turnaround story has been pushed to us for 5 years already. BAB says right things, but they focus on selling OSV, closing side business, shrinking. No new projects secured. Investors do not want a company that is shrinking.
Also, I am disappointed that Gary Ch. gives himself share package every year. At least, they could offer rewards for deserving employees. It is not a one pony circus. Sure others have to contribute and they should be incentivized too. I see his behavour as shameless GREED.
_____________________________________________________
1Q23 results met expectations. While BArmada’s turnaround story (degearing sustainably, improving cashflows and monetizing non-core assets) continues to gain traction, these positives have been priced in, in our view.
To catalyse growth and re-rate, BArmada needs to win a BOO FPSO project, beyond EPC jobs (construction-based).

Resolution no. 8 today was NOT widely supported. Same as last year.
50% shareholders and 32% of shares are against 'free giveaway' of bonus shares to the CEO of BAB. I am also against it. A gift of 1.5 mln every year is excessive.

50% shareholders and 32% of shares are against free giveaway of bonus shares to the CEO of BAB. I am also against it. A gift of 1.5 mln every year is excessive.

Should be easier to collect now. Price is going down, investors may be exiting, one by one. And that cought my attention.

Come on. Somebody say something. Excited about the e-commerce of cleaners to supplant CPO ?

Now, if I ever saw a bizzare company, this is one. Good luck with making a profit here. 😎

I would expect this company to be cheap due to PN17, but they are actually close to 5 year high. What is the case to purchase it ?
Yes, Angelina, new CEO looks great and speaks sense. But results are not inspiring. Less profit y on y.

Great news about the Conoco Philips opportunity here in Malasia. Armada Claire would do well with their turret for stormy waters, but that ship is 'water under the brigde.'
Armada Sterling is V is late, although I expected 6 months minimum. There is always an excuse that everyone uses. Like in this case, fishing nets. But there may be many issues being sorted behind the scenes.
Once 7 out of 10 catalysts on Nick's lists are achieved, I will be out of here. It has been very long.

Yes, awaiting news and a small rally. I made 11 points that I expect to be achieved building up on Nick's catalysts. Once 7 of them is achieved, I diversify most. So far we only have 2:
1. Armada Claire Sale
2. OSV Disinvestment

7 more to go.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Here is NIck's list provided here, without his permission. But good to change the tone here:
BAB Aims

Potential Bumi Armada Re-rating catalysts:

New wins:

1) Award of Cameia FPSO project in Angola from Total Energies - This is only an EPCC contract that will sustain earnings for 2-3 years. This is NOT a long-term charter contract. However; it could be valued up to 1 bln myr.

2) 1 Major FPSO contract win (large scale FPSO, likely with a JV partner) - Unlikely to happen soon as there are no known large scale bids from Bumi Armada, but possibilities exist in West Africa / South America with market rather tight in terms of supply as many suppliers are overextended.

3) 1 Minor FPSO contract win (either a small/medium scale FPSO, 100% owned) - Active bids in Tuna field (Indonesia) and Palok field (Mexico).

4) Non-FPSO contract win (either 100% owned or JV) - e.g. FSRU, FSU, FSO - The Mumbai Port FSRU project has been deferred. No other publicly known bids for now.

5) New contract win for the 2 SC vessels in the Caspian Sea and 1 JV-owned SC vessel in Indonesia. Potential for new wins for the Caspian Sea vessels is high as flurry of work in the region exists due to high oil price environment. All 3 vessels as of 31 Dec 2022 are laid up.

Green energy goals (leading to ESP score upgrades and rerating up to 6% by IB):
1) "Green energy" initiatives for future FPSO/non-FPSO wins (e.g. zero flaring or fully electrified FPSO)
2) Decarbonisation for existing fleet of FPSO
3) Diversification into floating CCS and other "green" structures

Business as usual objecties:
1) First oil achievement and then full acceptance of Armada Sterling V FPSO by ONGC at the 98/2 field in India
2) Confirmation of sale or scrapping of Armada Claire FPSO
3) Full divestment of the remaining offshore vessel

Contract extensions:
1) Positive development at the Kraken field, such as drilling of the Kraken Western flank or tieback to the nearby Bressay and Bentley fields - This would signal long-term contract extension for Armada Kraken FPSO which is due to expire in Q3 2025. For now, Enquest has indefinitely deferred drilling due to commence in 2023 because of the newly introduced windfall tax in the UK.
2) Confirmation of contract extension for Armada TGT FPSO in Vietnam - Might only be announced in Q4 2024, but it's all but certain the contract will be extended as new wells are still being pursued in the aged TGT field.
3) Contract extension of Armada Sterling II (due in Q4 2024).

_______________________________________________

Tecguan pays dividend .... seems a better choice. That is the result of my analysis of these low cap stocks.

I am lucky I do not have any shares of this company. Comes up on my bargain list. Gave it a look, but could not find any reason to invest.

I think it is something that will be offered to managment who may get warrants and right to buy at this price in the future. In any case, it is a rather small amount. As I remember, president of Armada had warrants for million of shares at very low price in 20's and 30's. So his compensation is very high for size of BAB. Previous president left with nothing as price of counter went down.

My broker recommended this counter to me. But I see that company has no focus as 3 areas of activity. Revenues go down. There is PN17 application, but would like to see good news about business, not just legal prospect. Will keep digging here.

I see that BAB is issuing shares to management. They do it at 0.75. So the price is reasonable, but they will probably be acuired if stock goes above the price. Fair enough. Let them bring it up 10 sens.
--------------------------------------------
Listing Date
10-May-2023
Management Incentive Plan
No. of shared issued
92,800
Issue Price
MYR 0.754

Great news about this Dorado FPSO project in West Australia. Remember that there is also Tuna opportunity in Asia (Indonesia). So it is not only Total Cameia, but a few other options as well.

AI content for Armada (I think, as it is so plain)
A bit overconfident as estimate is usually not precise. Maybe +/- 20%
So, how you miss it by 1.9% ?
But this AI catches one thing. Revenues will decrease.
My point is that new project is really needed.
I noticed that workforce decreased from 2k to 900. Not a good sign long term.
Cannot downsize perpetually.
---
Full year 2022 BAB earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations
Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 1.9%.
Revenue is expected to decline by 1.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Energy Services industry in Malaysia are expected to grow by 1.2%.

Whatever model they use: lease, JV, EPCC, etc., they better have somethings as it has been long since last project. I am NOT for having a big order book as the inflation, scarcity of supply will likely bring prices up. But there should be some deals or better prospects.
One important item for us, investors, is that it takes many years to sign the deals, deliver, operate and have contract renewed or terminated. We will likely move on to new opportunities and let others take the risk. I will be out for sure when P/E is 10+.

Gabriel, I started to read BA annual report. First 40 pages are about ESG. I was a bit worried that they may not priotized performance, but I realize that ESG is good for rating as investor's bank feature it prominently, so be it. Not going to complain about it at annual meeting.
:-)

Thanks Niki for the explanation about queue jumping and getting better deal than asked due to the opening price. I have not experienced it in the past, as the broker was doing the orders for me (at RHB), but now with a discount broker I have that bonus available.

Since I have now some time between contracts having finished an FPSO in Korea, I will put extra diligence into this counter and similar ones. Seems like there are a few opportunities for us. I had Yinson for 10 years, so longer experience in this investment area than most. From all I know, it is NOT the time to sell Armada yet.

It became very quiet here. I used to have this stock for about 5 years, then exited. I am now considering coming back. There is value in carimin. I expect oil to rally this year.

It is buying time for me.
I put a bid online for 0.66 sens this morning and just got an email stating that I purchased some for 0.65.
I do not even know how this is possible. I thought they matched offer and bid.
Anyway, a small trade position for a short term profit knowing that BA appreciates a few days after good news.
Assuming oil bounces back.

What an amazing opportunity this company presents to investors. Cannot get much cheaper than this.
I read many predictions here. 0.095 caught my eye.
THE RULE ABOUT PREDICTION:

NEVER PREDICT BOTH THE PRICE AND THE TIME.

JUST PREDICT ONE OF THE TWO.

Looks like insiders were in the know and bought in anticipation of news release last week, driving the price up. Did not make much profit as there was no gap up. It was 'Investorking' (may he reign in peace) that supported the operator controlling price theory being always ahead of us, small investors.

From my long armada experience, there is usually a drop following good news, but then it regains lost value in a few days. So let us hope for a good end of week. It is all in line with BAB tough love that longs has been received, but better times ahead of us.

Let's start another week. Something tells me that it will be a good one. We are long overdue for some positive news.

Eid Mubarak or Salamat Hari Raya
:-)

In case you missed it, Kenanga gives BA target 0.75. Within reach this quorter, in my opinion.
.........................................
We maintain NEUTRAL on the sector, given limited catalyst for big-cap names, with our sector top picks such as ARMADA (OP, TP: RM0.75) and WASEONG (OP, TP: RM0.97).

Today is a difficult day for BA longs.
Like women in abusive relationships, we are accustomed to pain, abuse, putdowns on this board.
Ralies are usually short lived, followed by quick retracing the lows.
And here it is again, all indicators green, up on a red day, positive news expected.
Let us try to learn new ways of this counter.
I believe 1 MYR is possible in the near future. Experienced it with other counters, like carimin.

Today BA is up 5%, but Yinson is down 1%. What an unusual day, considering tha crude is down.
I know from experience that armada did not fail to disappoint us in the past, so sure we will lose some gains soon.
But I have to admit that our counter is surprising us more frequently on the positive recently.
Way to go.

Hello xxx, you have 1 new important update for ARMADA
Bumi Armada Berhad
ARMADA
Share Price 7 Day 1 Year
0.65 2.4% 53.6%
Now 20% undervalued
Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 37%.
The fair value is estimated to be RM0.81, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only.
Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 77%.
For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 1.2% per annum. Earnings is forecast to grow by 3.1% per annum over the same time period

Even before the discussion of the dividends here, I was of the opinion that should it be declared, I would not sell my stake, but rather use the payments for other investments. If other stakeholders think the same, this would be beneficial for the price.
Overall, considering that this company was started at 3 myr ++ and had buy recommendations about 10 years ago, it sure is disappointing for their investors. However, it paid dividend at that time, or there was expectation thereof. Lets hope expectation or possibility will become a factor soon.

Gold break through to 2040 USD per ounce. Seems commodity bull cycle has started.

Very recent update from Kenanga:
All three of our Bursa-listed FPSO players, i.e. YINSON, MISC (MP; TP: RM7.50), and ARMADA, have been actively participating in international job bids, with opportunities emerging from Latin America, Asia Pacific and Africa. The FPSO space is starting to see a supply squeeze – i.e., many global FPSO players are already pre-occupied with jobs developing at hand, and hence, more recent bids have started to see very few bidders, making it very much an operator market.

Today both Yinson and Armada are both up 3 sens on the crude oil price increase.
That makes 1% profit for yinson, but 5%+ for BAB.
Ah, the investments in cheap stocks. When they pay off, they do it in a BIG way.
Glad I switched.
Now, the same reward will be achieved when these companies increase earnigs by a couple of sens.

MM78, with oil at 84 USD I expect BAB to reach 85 sens soon.
:-)
Posted by MM78 > 14 hours ago | Report Abuse

Look forward for it to go beyond 80 sens soon