GUYS, STOP BEING CRAZY !!! SLOW DOWN !!!

I am waiting to collect my salary next week to top up and seems that the stock is running away from me.

Darn !!!

Dropping of share price just before announcement is NOT a good sign. But this can hopefully be attributed to the general market sentiment. Insiders were not trading much anyway. Their options are probably worthless. So do not give up. Fund managers on most part do not know what they are doing. Reddit group proved it when they destroyed hedge fund forcing billion funding.

1 sen up ....

As a rally following 50% increase in Brent oil price it is not very convincing.

Hmmmmm.

I translated the article of valueinves and it is not bad ...
________________________________________________
The full name of FPSO is Floating production storage and offloading. The Chinese explanation is offshore floating production and storage tankers. It is mainly used for the exploitation, processing, storage and transportation of offshore oil, natural gas and other energy sources. The main players in Malaysia are MISC, YINSON and ARMADA.

The history of FPSO offshore structure is very novel for the entire petroleum industry. The history of modern oil began in 1846, when Abraham Disner in Canada invented the method of extracting kerosene from coal. In 1846, Baku established the first modern oil well, and in 1861 the world's first oil refinery was established. At that time Baku produced 90% of the world's oil. Later, the Battle of Stalingrad was launched to capture the Baku oil field.

With the decline of land oil reserves and the increasing development of offshore oil exploration, FPSO has emerged. In 1976, Shell Petroleum Company converted a 59,000-ton old oil tanker into the world's first FPSO, which was used in the Mediterranean Castellon oil field in 1977. Because FPSO has the advantages of large oil storage, low investment, and transferability, it has developed rapidly.

FPSO is one of the industries with the heaviest assets in the offshore industry. The structure and process of FPSO are very complicated and expensive. The world has 70.8% of retrofit FPSOs and the remaining 29.2% are newly built. The cost of the modified FPSO will be relatively low, but it is generally only suitable for oilfield development tasks in shallow sea areas. With the discovery of deep-sea and ultra-deep-sea oil fields, the demand for new FPSOs will gradually increase. It is generally estimated that the cost of a new FPSO is not less than 1 billion US dollars.

Companies that build and modify FPSO hulls are mainly in China, South Korea, Singapore and Brazil. The three major FPSO operators in Malaysia are mainly renting and providing support services.


Malaysia is very competitive in this field. The disadvantage of the FPSO market is its high instability. The ups and downs of oil prices are very painful for operators. This is because the maintenance, depreciation and cost of an FPSO are very high. If the oil price is too low, the company will be severely hit. For example, Armada has repeatedly used debt restructuring to delay debt risk.

I think that after the epidemic is over, the demand for oil will naturally increase. At this time, the oil and gas industry will flourish. Next, I will also analyze the development prospects of Armada, Yinson and Misc. Friends who are interested can follow the Facebook homepage @大朋友投资录本 or Instagram @free_dominvestor to get the latest news.

When price of Brent Oil Crude was $55 last year, BAB was 0.55 myr. Delayed this year but it is coming back soon ...

If I am reading it right, OIL PRICE is above US$58 !!!!

And holding.

It is higher than a year ago. Before crisis.

This cannot be bad news for clients of BAB.

As oil reaches 57 usd per barrel, I seriously consider switching to Silver. Squeeze ongoing.

It may spread to gold and commodities, including oil. Good luck to reddit fighters. They have to overcome paper silver mountain and then, the sea of paper oil may be next target.

I have to repeat myself. This stock NEVER fails to disappoints.

The sky is falling or just the bottom has fallen off?
Down, down, down ...

Kaya, kaya, kaya ... !!!

What do MCO's have to do with FPSO's on different continents operated by locals there with only some BAB specialist ?

I think the only real effect is the general sentiment of investors.
Also a factor. But a very temporary one.

2 months ago oil was 40 usd. Now it is 57 usd.
This stock price in oil service company largely unchanged.
Even lower yesterday as people see local movement restriction.

Everyone sees movement restrictions. Not everyone follows Brent price.
Of course people respond to local restrictions.

But those FPSO's are NOT subject to rules limiting how many in car.
So take advantage of this irregularity. Get more.
I did.

This is not too bad. Even 0.43 would mean improvement. Not sure if RHB was a friendly or foe brokerage in the past.
_________________________________________________________

RHB maintains 'buy' on Bumi Armada
TheStar Mon, Jan 04, 2021 09:28am - 43 minutes ago


KUALA LUMPUR: RHB Research reiterated its "buy" recommendation on Bumi Armada Bhd on improved earnings and cash flow visibility, underpinned by stable FPSO contributions masking weaker offshore marine service weakness.

It said the group's risk-reward profile looks attractive as the current 5.2x FY21 price-earnings and 0.5x FY20 prie-book value reflects an elevated 2.6 net gearing as at 3Q20.

Bumi Armada could see higher FPSO earnings in 4Q20 on higher contributions from Armada Kraken following the completion of the scheduled maintanence procedure in September.

"We expect this vessel to deliver a stable performance, and any planned and scheduled maintenance in 2021 should fall within the allowable maintenance days.

"That said, management still does not anticipate any asset write-back to be made in the near term, with regards to Armada Kraken," said RHB.

Meanwhile, it said the OMS segment is expected to face headwinds in 4Q20 due to the absence of sub-sea work orders and potentially lower OSV utilisation rates due to the monsoon season.

However, OSV contributions could improve in 2021 on higher vessel demand on drilling and related projects as Bumi Armada pushes for better spot charter rates.

"Our TP rises to MYR0.43, after narrowing the Kraken’s DCF valuation discount to 10% (from 20%) in view

of better vessel stability.

"Our new TP implies 6.4x FY21F P/E and 0.6x FY21F P/BV," it added.

RHB's base case assumpton is that Bumi Armada will refinance the borrowings due in May so no equity fund-raising would be required.

I doubt. If one thing that Armada never fails, is to eventually disappoint. And when investors think ALL POSSIBLE BAD SCENARIOS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED, they find a new way. That is some creativity.
But one day BAB will fail in getting a new excuse and finally deliver.

Tempest in a teacup. I still have some funds ready to deploy. Approaching 0.4 near the end of the year. Boy, it has been a bad one for investments.

Interesting news. Has not happened for a while.
________________________________________________

Currency -
Date of Change Type Number of Shares
18-Dec-2020 Acquired 200,000
Registered Name UTHAYA KUMAR A/L VIVEKANANDA
Nature of Interest Indirect Interest
Nature of Interest Indirect Interest
Shares ORDINARY SHARES
Reason ACQUISITION
Consideration -

I am buying more. Nice moment to top up.

The crisis will continue to cause bankruptcies. But surviving companies have the pie to themselves, with fewer players.
I think this company is surviving. It is in emerging market. And exporting to Asia.
________________________________________
The global economy, with plenty of speed bumps to come, is in the early phase of recovering from a once in a generation shock. Typically, in economics, a shock is either demand or supply-based, covid was really both. For oil, the grounding of flights, domestic lockdowns, and heightened levels of general uncertainty, have meant oil and oil names have traded very poorly this year. The thing that is worth noting in the context of this perfect storm is, who are the survivors, because the companies that are able to survive this shock will be in a good place from an operating leverage perspective, i.e. reduced competition, and will be the most able to benefit from the changing tides of global risk.

Emerging market countries are benefiting from the weaker U.S. dollar and stronger CNY in China.

Mikekim, I remember you. Welcome back. I also did not write here for almost a year. It was not useful to post along all the garbage. But it is time to look into this investment again. I see good comments too.
Seeing you here, is a good sign too.

Finally a meaningful post here. Thank you jojobaa.

Maybe people misread that ?

What new project ?

HOME OFFSHORE FULL CREW FULL CREW NEW FPSO PROJECT IN MALAYSIA
FULL CREW New FPSO Project in Malaysia
Company
Bumi Armada

Email
careers.my@bumiarmada.com

Opening Date
2020-12-03

https://oceancrew.org/vacancies/offshore/full-crew/full-crew-new-fpso-project-in-malaysia_03-12-2020

Dropping like a stone now. Vertical down as I see this afternoon at the moment. Time to take the profit ?

What the %^!& happened here?
People mistake Biden's Kraken for Armada Kraken?
If anything, it is going up too fast for a heavy vessel with little fundamental change. Seems all sentiment.
Control yourselves.
Sentiment changes. Earnings stay.

Time to top up my BAB holdings. Thank you all. :-)

Correct me if I am wrong but this is a very, very small amount of oil to be produced:
__________________________________________________________________
This infill-drilling program is targeted to increase gross production at TGT field off Vietnam from the current levels of around 15,000 boepd to around 20,000 boepd in 2022.

No problem at all. I am buying some more. See you on the other side.

Same story but different names.
I was not supposed to be the only one left here, but such things happen.

My favorite part of the release:

EnQuest’s chief executive, Amjad Bseisu, said on Tuesday: “I am delighted with the progress we have made at Kraken and in strengthening our balance sheet. We have now set a platform to use our capabilities for continuous improvement and to be able to enhance value for shareholders.”

Here is one from the Bumi Armada prospective...

https://www.oedigital.com/news/474956-bumi-armada-loses-woodside-fpso-case

Malaysian FPSO specialist Bumi Armada's claim against Australia's oil firm Woodside for a 2016 FPSO contract termination has been dismissed in court.

Woodside in 2016 terminated the contract for the Armada Claire FPSO unit that was operating at the Balnaves Field, offshore north-western Australia since August 2014.

Bumi Armada, via its Armada Balnaves subsidiary, deemed the termination unlawful, and then took legal action against Woodside, seeking a $283.5 million compensation.

According to a statement by Woodside, issued on Friday, January 24, 2020, the Supreme Court of Western Australia has now ruled in favor of Woodside.

Woodside said: "The trial was held in February-March 2019. In a judgment issued this afternoon, the Supreme Court has found in favor of Woodside and dismissed Bumi’s claim."

Worth noting, Bumi Armada had originally signed the Armada Claire FPSO deal with Apache in 2011. Apache then in 2015 sold its Australia operations to Woodside which eventually terminated the FPSO contract.

The 240-meter-long Armada Claire converted into FPSO by Keppel in 2013, has been listed as „available for re-deployment“ on Bumi Armada's website. According to available info, the FPSO with 30,000 bpd production capacity has been cold-stacked in Batam, Indonesia.

Now ... all over internet articles about bumi armada losing it's case. Either all those reporters and woodside, or people here get something wrong.
_____________________________________________
The Woodside said on Friday that the Supreme Court of Western Australia had dismissed Bumi Armada’s claim for compensation following termination of the Armada Claire FPSO charter in March 2016.

According to the Australian company, the trial was held during February and March 2019.

To put things into context, Bumi Armada signed the contract with Apache to provide the FPSO Armada Claire for the Balnaves Field in September 2011. The contract was for an initial fixed term charter of four years expiring in August 2018, with options for four annual extensions. At the time of the award, the contract was valued at approximately $357.5M.

Woodside bought Apache’s 65 percent interest in the field in April 2015, and the contract was novated to the company in May of the same year.

Woodside then terminated the charter for the FPSO on March 4, 2016, more than two years before the charter contract end. Bumi deemed the termination unlawful and decided to take legal action against the oil company.

At the time, Bumi said it had intended to fully enforce its rights under the contract, including initiating legal proceedings against Woodside for its unlawful purported termination of the contract.

On March 11, 2016, Bumi Armada’s subsidiary Armada Balnaves sent a counter-notice of termination to Woodside. Under the counter-notice, Armada Balnaves reserved the right to claim damages for the breach of the contract.

Bumi went further with the dispute by starting a court action against Woodside only days later. The FPSO owner stated in the court case that the damages for breach of contract would be quantified at a later stage and that it also wanted reimbursement for an additional sum of $66.2 million for work done and materials supplied pursuant to the contract, interest, costs, and other relief as the court deemed fit.

In April 2016, the height of the damages was disclosed in a $283.5 million claim which was submitted to the Supreme Court of Western Australia.

According to Bumi, the sum of $275.8 million is the amount of the termination payment to which Armada Balnaves is entitled had the contract been terminated without breach, plus any additional damages for loss of bargain caused to Armada Balnaves as a consequence of Woodside’s repudiation of the contract.

An additional sum of $7.7 million was sought for work done and materials supplied pursuant to the contract.

https://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/court-rules-in-favor-of-woodside-in-bumi-fpso-termination-case/

Try as I may, I do not see that as a statement that woodside needs to pay a lot .....
Ask Christine, here contact is there.
_______________________________________________________
BUMI CLAIM DISMISSED

Woodside and Armada Balnaves Pte Ltd (Bumi) have been engaged in proceedings in the Supreme Court of Western Australia (Armada Balnaves Pte Ltd v Woodside Energy Julimar Pty Ltd, CIV/1408/2016) with respect to the termination in March 2016 by Woodside of the services agreement for the Armada Claire FPSO. The trial was held in February-March 2019.

In a judgment issued this afternoon, the Supreme Court has found in favour of Woodside and dismissed Bumi's claim.

Contacts:

INVESTORS

MEDIA

Damien Gare

Christine Forster

W: +61 8 9348 4421

M: +61 484 112 469

M: +61 417 111 697

E: christine.forster@woodside.com.au

E: investor@woodside.com.au

Everyone here throwing numbers ... I am waiting for 15 cents as I missed the boat last time. In the meantime I hold on to my shares.

If there is one thing I agree with what is said here - no need to worry about EPF. That is a bunch of new college grads. No investment proweness.
Just two years ago they were collecting money to buy pizza and have a halloween party. Looking for costumes was the priority. Now, they manage multi million fund, and all they know is price targets from colleagues who were trick or treating with them.

I think we better face reality. There is no Claire reward coming. It is a fairy tale. Was good 2 years ago, when reality was far away. To make money, BAB has to pull their finger out of the a##, deploy the ship to the reservoir and start making money.
Everyone here long will be making profit then.

Introducing Bumi Armada Berhad (KLSE:ARMADA), The Stock That Zoomed 203% In The Last Year
Simply Wall St January 14, 2020
Unfortunately, investing is risky – companies can and do go bankrupt. But when you pick a company that is really flourishing, you can make more than 100%. For example, the Bumi Armada Berhad (KLSE:ARMADA) share price had more than doubled in just one year – up 203%. On top of that, the share price is up 19% in about a quarter. Zooming out, the stock is actually down 18% in the last three years.

View our latest analysis for Bumi Armada Berhad

Bumi Armada Berhad isn’t currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. When a company doesn’t make profits, we’d generally expect to see good revenue growth. That’s because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

In the last year Bumi Armada Berhad saw its revenue shrink by 15%. So we would not have expected the share price to rise 203%. This is a good example of how buyers can push up prices even before the fundamental metrics show much growth. Of course, it could be that the market expected this revenue drop.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

https://simplywall.st/stocks/my/energy/klse-armada/bumi-armada-berhad-shares/news/introducing-bumi-armada-berhad-klsearmada-the-stock-that-zoomed-203-in-the-last-year/

OK. Here it is My buy orders got filled right away. Funny how easy to buy now. When it was going up, so much activity and volume, and the range was blocked by big players. Could not get for 53 sens 2 months ago. Now anyone can get any shares at market price. But nobody does. When there is a price movement, all will rush in.

Well, I scrapped some cash and got another 8k for 0.495 ....
And I am not selling until 2019 fiscal year.
Good luck to shorts on buying back tomorrow.

Maybe I can still transfer my expense budget into trading account for top up?
:-)
IK cannot do it all alone against the pension fund.

Shorties and myself start buying now... We form a team by the end of the day. See price inch up ...
:-)
That 4k i buy sure makes the difference.

Sale continues. Great. Plenty of time to buy.

Yes. I am amazed by success of people here. Been investing for 30 years. 20 years in oil and gas international projects. But cannot come even close to my colleagues in performance.
None the less, if this ship flies, I will be very happy indeed.
I still have 4k to invest, and new salary is coming.
:-)
Cheers.

Well, I kept my word and purchased another 5k at 0.5 myr just by end bell. Seems like a bargain. No problem keeping it for a few months. All the political discussions and volatility, yet the oil keeps flowing. See you on the upside.

I am not sure about idss, but 5k purchase is mine. IK cannot do it all alone. Just got salary transferred. Took two weeks because bank name was not exact sequence as they want, got berhad wrong. And now I buy at 10% discount. What a blessing.
:-)
See you on the upside.

Hello .... happy new year to old friends. Still here and will even buy some more once my money gets transferred. Too bad i missed the 40's.

One thing that I see here, and that has been consistently bugging me, is the perception that prices were brought down intentionally. Even some analysts called it 'kitchen sinking.' It makes perfect sense. Insiders thought: let panic sellers give us their shares at half price. It is their decision. And they would strongly suggest that there was not much hope for reversing charges, they sell a few items/assets below value and ... watch the drop in price with satisfaction. I did not get them my shares. On the contrary, got some more. Sooner or later, reality sets in.

All the comparisons between Yinson and Armada here miss 1 point: Yinson has 3.5 billion of debt, armada about 9.5 billion. That scares investors away.

In any case, they decreased this balance year over year from 2016. And earningswise BAB is about 20% undervalued. Yinson is 80% overvalued.
That is why I sold off my yinson and transferred all to Armada.
You do your own moves.

You can find it on net . . . from yesterday ...
__________________________________________
Does Bumi Armada Berhad (KLSE:ARMADA) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Simply Wall St December 19, 2019
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway’s Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says ‘The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital. So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Bumi Armada Berhad (KLSE:ARMADA) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company’s debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

View 1 warning sign we detected for Bumi Armada Berhad

What Is Bumi Armada Berhad’s Debt?
As you can see below, Bumi Armada Berhad had RM10.4b of debt at September 2019, down from RM11.5b a year prior. However, it does have RM1.04b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about RM9.40b.

How Healthy Is Bumi Armada Berhad’s Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Bumi Armada Berhad had liabilities of RM3.47b due within a year, and liabilities of RM7.83b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of RM1.04b and RM1.20b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total RM9.06b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit casts a shadow over the RM2.76b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Bumi Armada Berhad would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Weak interest cover of 1.0 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 10.2 hit our confidence in Bumi Armada Berhad like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. On the other hand, Bumi Armada Berhad grew its EBIT by 29% in the last year. If sustained, this growth should make that debt evaporate like a scarce drinking water during an unnaturally hot summer. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Bumi Armada Berhad’s ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you’re focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Bumi Armada Berhad burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Our View
On the face of it, Bumi Armada Berhad’s conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it’s pretty decent at growing its EBIT; that’s encouraging. Taking into account all the aforementioned factors, it looks like Bumi Armada Berhad has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn’t float our boat. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet – far from it. For example, we’ve discovered 1 warning sign for Bumi Armada Berhad which any shareholder or potential investor should be aware of.

This ticker is still below 50? Cannot believe. I was paying up to 54 sens in pre anouncement. But, the longer it stays in this range, the less likely return to 30's.
Let's wait for those who took the profit . . . Many are now realizing that the grass is not much greener on their new pastures.
:-)

They will come back for new year.

Interesting news today ...


DECEMBER 10, 2019
LUKOIL AND KAZAKHSTAN DISCUSS COOPERATION
President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev hosted President of LUKOIL Vagit Alekperov in the city of Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan, today.

The head of LUKOIL presented an updated report on the company's operations in Kazakhstan in 2019. The parties discussed the status and future development of Zhenis and I-P-2 offshore projects as well as opportunities to expand cooperation in future. Vagit Alekperov also talked about the first months of operation of LUKOIL's lube plant in the Almaty Region, commissioned in September of 2019.

Wow ... this is all full of surprises.
I have given up on trying to swing trade long ago.
Fundamentals matter.

There is no secret debt in the financial statement. Many smart people read those and comment if anything found.

Just relax and see what is coming 2020.
It is not about Claire. All is about earnings.
____________________________________________________
Posted by InvestorKING > Dec 9, 2019 5:57 PM | Report Abuse

Sold 2mil shares at 0.475, 0.47, n 0.465 range, waiting to collect back at 0.45 tomorrow

Wow ... that is some action today. And the day has just started for me.

I do not mind those drops. Healthy. All the up and up of past 3 months was making me feel it was a stampede.
But now truth comes out.
See the real side of people too.

See you at 60.

No panic at all.

Investing is all about probabilities. If the perceived odds of an event are high, certain securities will be priced based on those expected probabilities. The corollary is that when an event is perceived as almost impossible, securities do not price in any chance of it occurring. If that event does occur, all sorts of securities need to re-price—often quite rapidly. I like to spend my time pondering what potential events the market completely ignores. Of all potential economic outcomes, the one that is least anticipated and least priced in, is Bumi Armada performing as well as Yinson.

Now think of energy; it’s a crazy world out there and global energy security is no longer guaranteed. Prices have been suppressed for the past few years by excess production due to uneconomic shale—that’s clearly reversing as the funding has been cut off. Where do you think energy prices go if shale growth flat-lines or goes in reverse? What about when key producing regions devolve into chaos? Tanker rates are also expanding—that increases energy prices as well. Yes, I think about 20% up this year. FPSO charters will follow.

Think about what venture capital has done to costs. Thousands of businesses are losing hundreds of billions a year to gain market share in rather prosaic industries. Think about what Uber has done to transport costs or Chewy has done to the cost of dog food. These are all subsidized by VC firms so they can dump IPOs on unsuspecting retail bag-holders. As these businesses are forced to raise pricing in order to become sustainable, what will that do to consumer inflation? Won’t all sorts of sectors also gain pricing power, now that they don’t have to compete with someone who sells a Dollar for 80 cents hoping to make it up with volume? Isn’t the collapse of the Ponzi Sector bubble inherently inflationary? If yes, the investment attention will turn to the income producing companies, as Bumi Armada.