Results announced

Yes the sector's run coincide with AQRS's peak results these few quarters. Even doubling it is still inexpensive, and even before any new Govt contract. But what is cheap can remain cheap indefinitely, we will need UEMS to continue leading, don't fall!

@Kim Sua's heart is with Yinson that's why

This feels like a spring. Press press press. Wait for the bounce ya

lol if calculate like that do you realise it's worth nothing if you use a PE of 5? 🤣

MCA sure main main, tong kooi ong dont main main har

The beauty is years of outperformance didnt seem to get to the heads of management - reflecting that they have not peaked. Still doing all the right things and moving a step at a time to RE.

What a company

If you believe in oil, you can't really wait on Hibiscus. Just spread it out and buy over multiple batches. Oil is volatile, individual stock chart less meaningful when the driving force is oil price

Tomorrow Q1 FYE 2024 results

Or the devil 🤣 Im sure many sailang because of u

You the man nikicheong

Look at warrants buy queue...then look at mother shares. What.

It was only by a stroke of luck I swapped all my Armada to Yinson previously. It didnt even look like a good idea until yesterday. Luck.

Agree. Always buy good management.

Re the latest announcement for those not following Yinson closely, this was the deal:

Yinson was also awarded a purchase option to buy 100% stake in the completed
FPSO Atlanta for a cash price amounting to c.20% of the capex cost of the asset
(US$95m out of the estimated capex cost of US$468m), which must be
exercised by early-CY24F. If Yinson does not exercise this purchase option, its
role will be limited to the EPCIC work of converting the vessel, and to operate
and maintain the vessel for the first two years after commissioning. If Yinson
goes ahead to exercise the purchase option, then it will be entitled to BBC
revenue and O&M revenue for 15+5 years. We expect Yinson to exercise the
purchase option given the very attractive IRRs on this project.

One of YP’s goals is to increase our portfolio of proftable
assets, creating a long-term EBITDA of USD500 million. We
are reasonably optimistic that this goal can be achieved
given current market conditions which are favourable to
contractors. We will continue to be very selective about
the projects that we bid for, choosing to participate only
in those projects that will enable our portfolio to shift as
quickly as possible to meet our ambitious climate targets.
We believe that rising energy demand and high oil prices
will continue to ensure there are more than enough project
opportunities for YP in the years to come

@novel23 ya small potatoes no $ to buy this stock that doesnt move

Yinson’s order book represents RM97 billion for the next 25 years. This provides a stable revenue outlook for the foreseeable future, giving us confdence that we will be able to comfortably meet our operational needs.
The Group’s business model of earning stable recurring income from asset-leasing contracts is evidenced by the steady growth
of our non-EPCIC activities’ cash flows from operations over the past years. In FYE 2023, the net cash flows generated from operating activities for non-EPCIC activities was RM1.3 billion, a 49% increase from the previous year. Looking back over a 2-year time horizon, Yinson’s operating cash flows from non-EPCIC activities have more than doubled since FYE 2021

Holding up well despite oil price volatility. This counter is fundamentally so strong, just have to be patient and sell high buy low accordingly. A little dull, quite simple, but really not that risky...

anyway i thank the sharks, definitely not stingy, good counter to play

you're half right lol if no tax means break-even, -200 + 200 = 0 not 200

That small movement with some volume in the warrants is reminiscent of the movements preceding the last rise, good luck 😉

For those like me who are very bored waiting for a market going nowhere...here you go extract from a newsletter:

The longer this goes on, the more convinced I am that stocks are going to resolve higher. It’s not as if the stock market doesn’t know about the debt ceiling deadline; it’s on the calendar, and it’s not that far away. I don’t know whether it will get resolved on time (I tend to think that it won’t), but when it does, you’re probably going to have a multi-standard deviation move higher.

There is a huge amount of cash waiting to be put to work. I have been getting emails from inexperienced investors telling me they have cash to put to work but are waiting until after the debt ceiling is resolved. Multiply that by millions of people, and you understand the scale of what the market might do in June.

This too shall pass. If things are boring now, you may as well enjoy it. At some point in the future, things will be exciting, and it probably won’t be the kind of excitement you like. But periods of boredom can last a long time. Pretty much all of 2005 and 2006 were a snoozefest. And you know what happened after that.

The range is so tight. A 10% move either way has not been seen for a long time. A 10%+ move to the upside will propel the warrants - that much is clear. So far so good for warrants in that it responds fairly to mother share price. It's a low premium play. Unlike some very high premium warrants that even if they respond to mother share move you get scared because it implies such high premium

It's so illiquid. Every day 0.1-0.2% of shares outstanding traded only. The downside - no liquidity no premium...the upside - liquidity comes in easy peasy for it to charge up since we know a huge chunk is held by long term players who won't sell...

@fregend

Depends on from where you look at...it's still much better than post rights issue. For a while hanging in there it has been frustrating and for many months after rights issue didnt move and it has always looked cheap. Then it charged up and traded almost every day at 2.70 for 2 months. Then the abrupt drop, the good thing is the quick rebound from 2.30 range. So hopefully 2.50+ holds and this is a very good price already considering the broader market.

I think most of us are disappointed that Agogo did not do much to share price. Back when they won Anna Nery, the share price just shot up for multiple weeks. Agogo is bigger, the terms better, but from 2.70 it came down. Figures. Yinson doesn't disappoint but the share price this round is kind of disappointing lol

Valuation is very rich...vs Hibiscus for instance. Well, for those already invested, hopefully the rich valuations stay rich.

Taking a break for 2 years may not make much difference...they are still bidding for 1 more BP. And then they will have no rooms to take on anymore anyway, and they willhave to start selling stuff or monetise the green energy side which we can't tell how much is priced in. See how well Sembcorp is doing w that green energy rhetoric...

Existing ones that paid up through Covid all proven to be good
Agogo is credible - 50/50 Eni/BP JV, no issue

Anna Nery & PDB (Maria) a bit worrying because it's Petrobas. Unexpected delays in Anna Nery for instance, solely due to Brazil regulations not Yinson...so long as oil holds here it will be fine.

The main reason Yinson is trading at such a premium over peers is the credibility of counter-parties risk in addition to the gigantic order book.

Will Yinson move like Waseong?

Which chart is better before Waseong's breakout

Yinson right, analyst wrong - 3 months ahead of analysts' "conservative" estimation. Yinson never disappoints

New FPSO comes on stream off Brazil
May 8, 2023, by Melisa Cavcic

Back in October 2019, letters of intent were awarded to Malaysia’s Yinson for the FPSO Anna Nery by Petrobras. Several months later, the two players entered into definitive contracts and in April 2020, Sumitomo opted to participate in the project with a 25 per cent stake.

In June 2022, the FPSO’s naming ceremony was held. The following month, the vessel left the Cosco Qidong shipyard in China and embarked on its journey to Brazil. The FPSO Anna Nery arrived in Brazil back in September 2022.

In an update on Monday, 8 May 2023, Petrobras revealed that the FPSO Anna Nery started production on 7 May 2023. This is the first of two FPSOs that are part of the Marlim and Voador revitalisation project, which is expected to expand the current production of around 30,000 bpd of oil and around 420,000 m³ of gas to more than 150,000 boepd.

Jean Paul Prates, CEO of Petrobras, commented: “This is the largest project in the world in the recovery of mature assets in the offshore industry. Through it, we will increase production, maintain jobs, and open an important learning and knowledge front for other similar projects throughout Brazil.”

The FPSO Anna Nery is anchored in a water depth of 927 metres and interconnected to 32 wells, with peak production scheduled for 2025. The vessel is capable of producing up to 70,000 barrels of oil per day and processing 4 million m³ of gas, It is expected to work on the field for 25 years.

Furthermore, the Marlim and Voador revitalisation project is expected to contribute to the recovery of the Campos Basin production – currently at about 560,000 boed – with the projection for the basin’s production being 900,000 boed for 2027. The two new FPSOs will replace the previous nine platforms: P-18, P-19, P-20, P-26, P-32, P-33, P-35, P-37 and P-47.

Moreover, the second production unit, which is scheduled to work on this project, is the FPSO Anita Garibaldi. In a bid to extend the production from the field’s deposits until 2048, these two FPSOs are planned to be connected to 75 wells.

“The deployment of these two new production systems, appropriate to the mature field exploration format, provides operational continuity to the Marlim and Voador fields,” underlined Petrobras.

Petrobras on the start-up of FPSO Anna Nery

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras informs that the FPSO Anna Nery started production on May 07, 2023, in Campos Basin, within the project of revitalization of the Marlim and Voador fields, which will produce the post-salt reservoirs and Brava, located in the pre-salt of the two fields. The unit is capable of producing daily up to 70,000 barrels of oil and processing 4 million m³ of gas.

“This is the largest project in the world in the recovery of mature assets in the offshore industry. Through it, we will increase production, maintain jobs, and open an important learning and knowledge front for other similar projects throughout Brazil”, said Jean Paul Prates, CEO of Petrobras.

The Anna Nery unit, of the FPSO (floating , production, storage and offloading unit) type, together with the Anita Garibaldi, also an FPSO, make up the first major revitalization project for mature fields in the Campos Basin.

The deployment of these two new production systems, appropriate to the mature field exploration format, provides operational continuity to the Marlim and Voador fields, increasing production to an average of 150,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed), maintaining jobs and support services, and opening an important learning and knowledge front for other revitalization projects.

The FPSO Anna Nery is anchored in a water depth of 927 meters and interconnected to 32 wells, with peak production scheduled for 2025. The Marlim and Voador revitalization project will contribute to the recovery of the Campos Basin production, currently at about 560,000 boed. The projection for the basin’s production is 900,000 boed in 2027.

VALUATION/RECOMMENDATION
• Maintain BUY, higher SOTP-based target price of RM4.05 (from RM3.95). This implies
18x PE, or 8x on long-term PE assuming FPSO Agogo fully contributes to earnings (lifting
earnings base to about RM2b). The key SOTP upgrade arises from reverting back our
assumptions for FPSO Anna Nery’s stake to 75% (from 65% previously), offset by higher net
loans. We continue to like Yinson for its execution, although we acknowledge that the current
price may remain undervalued and will appreciate gradually in tandem with the new FPSO
earnings timeline. Our SOTP still ignores the non-O&G ventures’ long-term value.

FPSO Anna Nery’s first oil may be delayed again from Apr 23 expectation. To recap,
the FPSO has been earning 90% of its base rate since Feb 23. However, first oil is still
uncertain, owing to the complications of Brazil’s O&G regulation landscape, involving
National Petroleum Agency (ANP) and Institute of the Environment (Ibama). Unlike O&G
projects in other countries, the environmental studies were not typically done during the preinvestment,
until the ANP license for the Brazil concession is awarded. Under the license,
ANP authorisation is still required for all stages (from exploration to production/ operations),
and a key requisite for this authorisation is the environmental licenses – at times, the
environmental conditions from Ibama supercedes ANP conditions.

In Nov 22, ANP approved Petrobras’ revised US$3.8b field development plan (FDP) for the
revitalisation of Marlim field, which involves two FPSOs – Anna Nery and Anita Garibaldi (by
Modec). This follows after Ibama issued in May 22 “the installation licence” for both FPSOs.
Both FPSOs were delivered at different times - FPSO Anna Nery arrived in Brazil at end-Sep
22, while FPSO Anita Garibaldi arrived much later on 17 Jan 23. As a reference, another
FPSO of Modec, the FPSO Almirante Barroso arrived on 5 Oct 22.

Good news: FPSO Anna Nery secured Ibama’s operational license (17 Mar 23).
Modec’s FPSO Almirante Barroso secured the same license on 12 Apr 23. Hence, it
appears to us that six months are needed from the FPSO arrival dates (into Brazil) to
Ibama’s formal license award. We understand FPSO Anita Garibaldi has not yet arrived at
the Marlim location. Although management views they are unrelated events, we are
concerned by the possibility that the ANP authorisation will only be granted after BOTH
FPSOs secure their Ibama licenses. Under this scenario, Jul 23 may be the more
conservative first oil date for FPSO Anna Nery.

Meanwhile, Armada has run way ahead of Yinson and I have cashed in all Armada at yesterday's closing while sitting on Yinson and Hibiscus. Reserve bullets for Armada/ Yinson pull back if any, or just sit tight and wait.

Outlook for O&G stocks improves further
■ OPEC+ production cuts from May 2023 will likely help our top sector picks
Yinson and Dialog rerate due to positive sentiment and bullish fundamentals.
■ Reiterate Overweight on the oil and gas sector.

Top picks: Yinson and Dialog; we are most negative on LC Titan
Our top Add calls are Yinson (TP: RM3.68) and Dialog (TP: RM2.74). We expect Yinson’s
earnings to double this year on the back of its existing and new projects, while Dialog will
likely be rid of its loss-making EPCC projects over the next 12 months. We also believe
Dialog will eventually secure higher manpower rates for its plant maintenance contracts.
Our top Reduce call is LC Titan (TP: RM1.04) due to feedstock cost pressures.

Raymond YAP, CFA
T (60) 3 2635 9250
E raymond.yap@cgs-cimb.com

The one time where charts work so well

You had the bounce off 200MA with a dragonfly doji
The RSI below 30 turning up
The SO below 20 turning up

Can't get better than this

If we do not want to catch the falling knife...one way is to buy with conviction when the Lims buy. The last few rounds, Lim senior's multiple warrants buy preceded the quick surge. I do not think that he has a crystal ball nor was he trying to push it up. It appears to me more of a case where he knows the behind the scenes - where it is time they buy up. They could be responsible for recent sell down (where we can't see if they use nominee accounts), but when they buy they are more likely to let us see (public announcements).

I believe I was one of the few who bought all I can below 30c, and then 40c. I also sold the first round, re-enter on the recent oil bull, and liquidated half my position averaging 75c back then. I erred on buying back too early finishing all my sold proceeds to buy back at 64, then proceeded to swap other counters to warrants at 50 cents again. I am temporarily paralysed, unsure whether to double up my warrants stake further (I can even quadruple it as I was able to exit other positions). With mother share's weakness I was expecting to get some warrants at 50 again or below but it hasn't happened. Today all I got was a 100 lots at 54, but it's trading fast which scares me away. Any BQ gets matched quickly. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

The low premium appears to a mismatch to me. We have about >4x gearing on a 20% premium warrant when mother share has retraced. Yinson itself is highly geared. And then you have a warrant that offers another 4x leverage. If you buy on margin, another 2x leverage. It's quite possible to structure a highly leveraged long position on Yinson by paying a bit more now in premium and interest cost, if one is bullish on FPSOs at large

If warrants do break below 50cents, it's a great offer for risk takers. I think anything below 0.710 is quite safe, implying mother share conversion of $3.00 by Jun'25. Good odds for Yinson to have already zoomed pass $3.00 should it successfully execute its plans. This has to be one of the most fundamentally sound warrant play on Bursa right now, please correct me if you think otherwise

Currently trading at higher premium than before. This has more to do with weak mother share price than high warrant price.

Yinson itself could be rather boring. But post-rights, the warrants offer an excellent risk/reward prospect, especially for small investors like us.

Over time however it can be seen that Yinson always retraces from highs and next round go higher. This can be easily justified because Yinson has been growing profits consistently, and now more than ever things are coming to fruition. The question is to what extent this has been priced in

Dialog is also hovering at 200MA. Hibiscus has convincingly broke below as oil broke. And Armada is still way above

For close to 2 months it was hovering at fresh 52W high

Then all it took was 10 days to break down and today touched and bounced off 200MA

When it's doing everything right, and share price moves this way, it's not in a good place. What else can Yinson do? We can only wait.

@novel23

last Friday last inute gap down 2.48-->2.41

@rl68

Maria Q.: Jun 2024 not 2025, similar timeline as Atlanta + quarter ended Jan'23 showed progress ahead of schedule

Agogo: EPCIC to be recognised from FY2Q24 (Jun-Aug'23)

Anna Nery: Secured additional US$50k/day rate

Maria Q: has same contract clause as Anna Nery, potentially will secure +US$50k/ day rate