@terence, looking forward to your detailed analysis.

TG's QR is out, 1 good news and 1 bad news from my brief read - TG increasing its ASP by 5% in Oct 2022 and TG writing down its inventory in 4Q2022.

While increasing ASP sounds good, I wonder how low have they been selling in the quarter ended Aug 2022 - this could be the very reason why they are writing down their inventories (writing down inventories means cost of inventory is lower than selling price). So if TG's cost per unit is not too high, the ASP could be bad.

If TG threw down prices in Jun, Jul, Aug (and assuming Sept as well since price increase effective only in Oct) - Harta's next QR could be worrying.

Cool as a cucumber. Invest with money you can afford to lose.

@Terrence yeah, nothing new for the business yet many stories and predictions can be made out of nowhere. Let's see how red we can get for TG's QR. I'm just hoping no further slide in ASP, couldn't care less about TG's profit as they are far worse in cost management when compared to Harta.

Ahhh, back after 1 week break and I see Natsuko + Khatu in the latest page, couldn't expect anything less. Natsuko the #1 Harta hater.

I would be very concerned if Harta starts making gross losses, hope the margin shows itself to be stabilising next QR onwards. Keeping that ~3sen EPS would be crucial.

@Cerubic what a shocking news, considering how recent was the appointment of Truss as PM.

@bang_miskin I have serious doubts on 1.2, we may get close to 1.5 or even slightly below it, but 1.2 is equivalent to impairing the current NAPS on behalf of the company. Not a small impairment too, its 20% impairment. Considering that Harta is still getting net profit (not even considering the gross profit), i seriously doubt that from an accounting perspective.

But ofcourse, market does whatever it wants, and nothing is impossible. Just feel like we're getting down to the basics now, since we're far from giving the company good PE.

LOL Khatu, keep calm and hodl, assuming you bought.

@khatu, dont bother about the TP. But their analysis is worth a read and to contrast with management's expectation. There's quite a big gap honestly, Kenanga thinks 2025 to recover, management thinks latest 2H2023. Let's see.

we've been seeing >10mil volume daily at this price range, is it really possible to see much lower? Curious to see the reaction after TG's inevitable cukai makmur QR release.

well today is a weird day for harta's share price, having a decent green in a day where majority of the market is red. natsuko will tell you its the last chance to escape. lol

Kenanga is pretty bearish about the supply-demand dynamics. I wonder if all the plants yet to be commissioned by "glove players" will really continue to be commissioned over the next 2 years as estimated by Kenanga. With the current low ASP, wouldn't these people be making losses for commissioning the plants? Even Harta delayed the NGC 1.5 commissioning.

@cerubic yeah people are expecting europe to have a rough winter, take care!

@Cerubic have fun in your backpack trip!!

caveat for bang_miskin, *if you have spare cash to throw around with a decent chance that it will appreciate few years down the road" how many years is "few"? no one knows.

@James_Bond, do you then invest your money in FD? Hoping on more enlightenment on where to put the cash.

Bottom fisher i guess, fear of missing out the lowest of lows. This strategy hasn't serve me well so far this year, but how low will the market go? If it is recession time, then it is time for DCA.

@value_seeker agreed on wait and see if you have not invested, but if you've bought in, it is a risky move to sell now in hopes that it will drop lower to buy back. It's almost the same as RSS. That is a risky game I don't want to buy. But if you meet Natsuko's 3 conditions, by all means - sell.

@Natsuko thanks for that, I don't have all 3, no reason for me to sell.

Agree to disagree on the thesis part, I don't think Harta is going down the drain, I was personally satisfied with Q1, let's see how things goes moving forward. We all know glove demand is growing, the problem now would be the supply, and for this part - in Harta's management I trust. They have good work ethic & values and should be able to keep their key customers to buy from them at a more premium price (when compared to current market) in exchange for stability in supplies.

I would be more concerned if Harta really starts to go loss making without a near term solution. Closing inefficient plants would be the first step towards cost reduction, so as I said, lets see.

@fluhub888 answer is, we didn't choose to enter when its confirmed to be downtrending. We chose to enter when the price fits/goes below what we perceive as fair value based on the business of the company, and we believe in their future (despite other investors don't).

And if you look at the market as a whole, majority is "downtrending" now anyways with the recent geopolitical uncertainties, inflations, and rate hikes. If you are able to choose and trade the right counter to make gains even at this time, then good on you. But consider yourself genius/lucky, cause even berkshire hathaway aint doing that great.

@WinBigOrLoseAll sums it all up in your last comment.

@Ryan83, let's see what happens next quarter. I believe in Harta's strategy, you dont always have to fight price with price head on, differentiate ownself in another way.

@Leslie have a look at Harta's top 30 shareholders, you'd be surprised.

@natsuko, I'm curious, so you have an opinion that china will takeover the glove market and eliminate malaysian glove sellers. And that opinion is based on your expectation that China gov will do all it takes to help their glove companies takeover the glove market?

I'm in the second boat, I have no problem keep on holding to my Harta so long the company don't do unreasonable things or going to bankrupt. However, it doesnt mean I won't buy, the entry price just got to make sense for my overall portfolio exposure.

in my opinion, there's 2 ways to look at buying during a dump:
1. catching the falling knife (looking for a potential technical rebound and quickly sell off)
2. the fall in price matched with investors' budget and they decided to increase their exposure in the stock

If you are investing for long term, becareful of your thoughts to catch a rebound, that's already beyond your initial research. Play it long, play it safe.

@cerubic I'm very intrigued with the AGM discussions, will be better prepared next year and most likely take a half day leave to attend.

the article by edge sounds more comprehensive

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/hartalega-slows-ngc-15-plant-expansion-glove-oversupply-dents-demand

thanks @cerubic! looks like its consistent to what was discussed in the annual report, except the part where they are urging for gov to help? I don't recall reading that. Did they specify any kind of assistance would be good? labour maybe?

@mini too bad cheap is subjective. If you ask me, it was cheap since rm3.8. But EPF would beg to differ, and I am the smaller fish compare to them, so what can I do? Watch and learn. Not selling at this price, I'd rather take my share certs and throw into the sea for entertainment's sake.

@bang_miskin yeah im glad that i did not have extra money when it was 3.8 & 2.8, both look so attractive at that time. But if we ever see 1.2, there won't be a risk of another 60% fall at that price....

bang_miskin got extra space on your couch?

lol i3lurker pulling numbers from the sky.

HAHAHAHAH he just asked you to smash his neck, I cannot. You're funny Khatu, I give that to you.

LOL I've found myself enjoying Khatu's story sometimes. So damn random that it added a comedic effect.

Sudden volume + bloodbath, guess who?

Respect to you for that cerubic. I too hot blooded cannot tahan these trolls. Should heed my own advise and stay away for the time being. Karma will do its job.

The only PM that was done was analysis by Terence, his is the author and he has rights on where he wants to share his research. If he doesn't want to share with you, then maybe reflect on your own behaviour abit la.

Also not everyone everyday sit on the side line only and dont buy, buy d where got money to keep buying? You buy too little is it? Or gambler for life?

@khatu This may not be the lowest point and no one knows where is it. Rebound may not come soon. Don't hold your breath. If you're holding your breath waiting for Harta to rebound, you may want to consider releasing some of it so that it's not so difficult to bear.

@cerubic some people are just aholes that goes around commenting about others' wife. Rude, no manners, and unethical. And then say other people sensitive. Real psychotic person, worse than Natsuko (which is a tall order to fill on its own).

Didn't comment for a few hours then sorok? Find friends in real life if you need them, not random stranger online that has different investment opinion as you. I've been here since Harta fell from the top to Rm6. I do my research before investing and don't have small balls and heart like some other people.

I also don't measure my investment result through daily share price gain, just FYI if its not clear enough.

If you got something productive to say then say it, if got constructive criticism then go ahead and state it, if not then keep my name out of your dirty mouth and fingers.

Not just courage khatu, patience too. Just got to wait out the turbulence if you believe in your research. But don't do nothing while waiting, do continue to keep track and be as objective as possible, set metrics and benchmarks for review to prevent biasness. The recent quarter results was fine for me, thought it is stabilising, but guess its not good enough for EPF. Let's see what happens next, ready bullets for when TG qr out.

When a counter's share price lost it's sanity, so does majority of the people commenting. Imma stay away from here where there's no constructive info to preserve my own sanity. Bang_miskin & Cerubic, hope to see you around when we have better days.

cheers cerubic, hope to see you here to celebrate when Harta is doing better. 2 years, or 3 years, or 5 years, who knows.

I think bang miskin meant it as satire. Those chasing serba & sapura though, hmm.

back to the DMs @terence :)

@terence775 @bang_miskin I thought the revenue drop was sort of expected since they can't sell into US which means they are mainly competing with China suppliers directly. I assumed the higher net profit is that they figured a way to cut cost to survive this turbulence, which is pretty good. I wouldn't mind Harta's revenue going down for the time being in order to bring back better net profit. It is really not the time to go for high volume with the current supply demand dynamics.

@Natsuko nobody said it was good, stop twisting words. It's NP improved from previous quarter, overall results didnt slide much since 2 quarters ago as well. Pakai mata bila baca, pakai otak bila cakap.

Yeah Supermax's QR is surprising. But TG will be accounting for cukai makmur next QR if im not wrong. Hoping for a good gross profit at least, that will be a good indication.

@i3lurker not everyone trade as full time job. Accept other perspective and way of life. Shit can be objective at times and subjective at other times.

As of 10.15am, it is error 404: bloodbath not found. If you ask me to wait till end of day/week to see bloodbath, I will ask you why not wait another year or two to see green sticks. :)