Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-07 21:59 | Report Abuse

I could be wrong, but after hitting a recent high of 4134 on 24 July, FCPO is trading at 3776 today, lower than 7 July low of 3834. That's normally not the common sign of FCPO wants to make higher highs than 4134 yet. More likely to keep drifting downwards. Still the future is uncertain. I took some profits of TAANN to lower my average buy cost further to 2.8. Can always buy back when price is lower than 3.69 later.

Posted by wallstreetrookieNEW > 2023-08-08 15:11 | Report Abuse

Don't look at CPO price to trade palm oil stocks. CPO price has no correlation to the stock price itself, although it does have an impact on profits. By the time CPO price moved, it is too late to buy in. Always buy plantation stocks when the CPO price is on a downtrend. Sell when CPO is on uptrend. Good luck

Posted by wallstreetrookieNEW > 2023-08-09 20:11 | Report Abuse

Crude palm oil prices face an upside risk due to the continuing Russia-Ukraine war, Affin Hwang IB analysts Nadia Aquidah, Steven Chan and Andrew Lim say in a note. Uncertainties due to the war can disrupt global grain supply, pushing vegetable oils prices higher, they say. Global warming can also disrupt crop production yields and make prices volatile, they add. The analysts maintain CPO price estimates for 2023 at MYR3,800/ton-MYR4,000/ton and for 2024 at MYR4,200/ton-MYR4,400/ton. They reckon that the plantation sector's earnings will grow by around 4%-5% with every MYR100/ton increase in CPO prices. They maintain a neutral rating on the sector and select Kuala Lumpur Kepong and Jaya Tiasa Holdings as their top picks

Posted by 5354_ > 2023-08-10 03:16 | Report Abuse

Many promoters here but not Sarawak Plantation which Ta Ann also own.

Posted by 5354_ > 2023-08-10 09:52 | Report Abuse

Sarawak Plantation(Ta Ann own 29.406%) RM 1.47 cheaper.

Posted by enning22 > 2023-08-10 15:15 | Report Abuse

sarawak plantqtion's landbank and plantation acreage ,and monthly oil production is half of ta ann. so the stock valuation is half of TaAnn.

Posted by enning22 > 2023-08-10 15:48 | Report Abuse

分析师预计棕榈油在今年第四季度和明年第一季度强劲反弹
2023-08-10
摘要： 棕榈油价格可能在2023年第三季度面临下行压力。中国和印度的食用油库存偏高，加上棕榈油相对豆油的价差缩小，将在短期内带来压力。
8月9日消息：资深棕榈油分析师赛西亚·瓦尔加博士表示，马来西亚毛棕榈油基准合约价格可能在明年初上涨到每吨4000到4300令吉。

周三，马来西亚衍生品交易所的2024年3月棕榈油合约收于3884令吉/吨。该合约将会是明年1月份时的基准棕榈油合约。如果瓦尔加的预测成为现实，意味着棕榈油价格将有3.0%到10.7%的上涨空间。

瓦尔加在一份研报中写道，棕榈油价格可能在2023年第三季度面临下行压力，然后在今年第四季度和明年第一季度强劲反弹。就近期走势而言，中国和印度的食用油库存偏高，加上棕榈油相对豆油的价差缩小，将在短期内给棕榈价格带来压力。

2024年印尼棕榈油产量预计为5100万吨，高于今年预期产量5000万吨；马来西亚的棕榈油产量可能降至1750万吨到1800万吨，而今年产量估计为1850万到1860万吨，因为极端干燥天气件会影响棕榈油产量。

不过瓦尔加表示，棕榈油的高价格不可持续，因为竞争力和需求将会受到影响。

机构：短期内棕榈油市场料偏多

8月9日报道，商品咨询机构Vesper周三在一份报告中称，预计棕榈油和其他植物油（即棕榈仁油、大豆油、菜籽油和葵花油）的短期情绪将略为偏多。Vesper表示，最新评估是在惠誉评级下调美用评级及其对食用油综合体的影响后做出的。

Vesper表示，乐观因素包括乌克兰物流中断、美国农业部可能削减美国大豆产量预估以及加拿大的天气风险。

但从长期来看，受强劲的供需、进口商库存充足以及预计8月份美国将出现对作物有利的天气，这些植物油的市场情绪将略为悲观。

Posted by calvintaneng > 2023-08-10 22:23 | Report Abuse

TAANN BOUGHT ITS LANDS BY SWEAT AND BLOOD

TSH RESOURCES (9509) POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS BY PRO-ACTIVE MANAGEMENT POINT TO A BRIGHTER FUTURE, Calvin Tan

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2023-08-10-story-h-242937383-TSH_RESOURCES_9509_POSITIVE_DEVELOPMENTS_BY_PRO_ACTIVE_MANAGEMENT_POINT

Posted by 5354_ > 2023-08-14 10:30 | Report Abuse

Wong Kuo Hea(director of both Ta Ann and Sarawak Plantation) is buying more Sarawak Plantation but not Ta Ann lately.

enning22

sarawak plantqtion's landbank and plantation acreage ,and monthly oil production is half of ta ann. so the stock valuation is half of TaAnn.

3 days ago

Posted by enning22 > 2023-08-18 12:04 | Report Abuse

美国农业部近日公布了8月供需报告，报告中上调了新作美豆期初大豆库存，下调了新作大豆产量、出口量及期末库存。市场人士表示，这份报告奠定了2023/2024年度美豆偏紧的供给预期，同时也令全球大豆供应预期转向偏紧状态。

Posted by titan3322 > 2023-08-24 09:50 | Report Abuse

May not hold at this price. The generous div maybe the positive factor giving it a premium

Posted by titan3322 > 2023-08-24 12:12 | Report Abuse

Most plantation Cos reported decline in profit in last qtr ranging from 84% to 45% while average CPO price was RM3800/tonne so the next qtr it may be a small improvement only unless CPO price shoot past 4500 in the month of September !

Posted by Pinky > 2023-08-30 17:34 | Report Abuse

Phew lucky still profitable

Posted by calvintaneng > 2023-08-31 01:58 | Report Abuse

TAANN

CASH & INVESTMENT IN ASSOCIATE RM750 MILLION
LESS DEBT RM195 MIL

NET CASH MORE THAN RM540 MILLIONS

CAN PAY MORE DIVIDENDS

JAYA TIASA (4383) WHY FONG SILING AKA COLD EYE & DR. NEOH SOON KEAN OF DYNAQUEST ARE BOTH BUYING JAYA TIASA, Calvin Tan

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2023-08-30-story-h-241060767-JAYA_TIASA_4383_WHY_FONG_SILING_AKA_COLD_EYE_DR_NEOH_SOON_KEAN_OF_DYNAQ

Posted by simon000000 > 2023-08-31 03:48 | Report Abuse

Dividend for 3rd quarter?

Posted by Pinky > 2023-08-31 08:37 | Report Abuse

Aiya CalvinTan u come here promote JTiasa buat apa 🙄

@simon000000 no divvy this quarter, last quarter paid already

Posted by wallstreetrookieNEW > 2023-09-04 15:29 | Report Abuse

Sell plantation

Posted by teknikal > 2023-09-16 15:05 | Report Abuse

rangebound between 3.38 to 4.00

Posted by Ryugentrades > 2023-09-23 08:16 | Report Abuse

Maybank IB stop loss 3.43 for this stock was hit on 7 September. For me, looking at the chart, this stock likely sideways or down trending. TaAnn holders revisit if you are trading coz short term not looking too strong.

Posted by Ryugentrades > 2023-09-23 08:17 | Report Abuse

I did a short video reviewing Maybank IB trading ideas, do have a look and hope you will find it helpful.

Hit or Miss: Backtesting Trading Ideas from Maybank IB (JTIASA, TAANN, MRDIY, NGGB, BIMB, AFFIN)
https://youtu.be/-kI8sBJKGCQ

Posted by calvintaneng > 2023-09-26 21:57 | Report Abuse

TAANN BOTH VALUE & GROWTH

calvintaneng

THE 7 PHASES OF A SUCCESSFUL PALM OIL COMPANY, Calvin Tan

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2023-09-26-story-h-218987595-THE_7_PHASES_OF_A_SUCCESSFUL_PALM_OIL_COMPANY_Calvin_Tan

Most probaly Bplant now at Stage Seven (no longer cheap)

Jaya Tiasa at Stage Four Going Into Stage Five offers better value

TSH going out from Stage Three to Stage Four offers the Best Value

Posted by Dehcomic01 > 2023-10-05 08:23 | Report Abuse

Over the years I have invested in companies involved with plywood. I then figured out that those who will survive are those with access to timber. Those companies who rely on buying timber from third party suppliers will have a tough time. Just look at what happened to Cymao (now Annum) and Eksons. Ta Ann is lucky to have timber operations.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2023-10-11 23:03 | Report Abuse

THE HIGHLY DEFENSIVE NATURE OF PALM OIL CO VERSUS OTHERS: Eg. NPC RESOURCES VERSUS KNM, Calvin Tan

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2023-10-11-story-h-217915830-THE_HIGHLY_DEFENSIVE_NATURE_OF_PALM_OIL_CO_VERSUS_OTHERS_Eg_NPC_RESOURC

ALL LANDS OWNED BY TAANN BOUGHT BY SWEAT, BLOOD AND HONEST LABOUR

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-10-15 10:06 | Report Abuse

Market has been distributing TAANN since July peak.

Posted by stockraider > 2023-10-15 10:10 | Report Abuse

Taann is the best manage Palmoil cum timber stock mah!

It pays good div too loh!

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-10-15 10:15 | Report Abuse

Is it planning to revisit 3.19/3.20 swing lows? 🤔

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2023-10-15 10:38 | Report Abuse

Unbelievable, a good company was dumped like a rubbish stock in the past few weeks. Market is very irrational sometimes.

Posted by stockraider > 2023-10-15 10:57 | Report Abuse

Put it this way, if they dump it is opportunity mah!

This is the beauty of the mkt loh!

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-10-16 17:59 | Report Abuse

Thanks to Mr Market, I picked up TAANN at 3.28 average, to cover what I previously sold at 3.66. Basically paid myself 38 sen "dividend" or 0.38/3.28 = 11.6% yield for just a couple of months.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-10-16 18:18 | Report Abuse

TAANN looks like a decent company to own in its entirity, as part of a long term diversified portfolio. I like it for many reasons, some already mentioned here. However, it is cyclical in that its earnings depends on CPO prices as you can see from its historical stock price the past 2 decades - on 1/1/2000, the stock open at 2.75 and today it is 3.27 and after 23 years, a gain of 52 sen is not the kind of stock that Warren Buffett would buy and hold forever.

It is clear that during good times, this stock price can soar - like 2007, 2012, 2016 and 2022. The prices can be as high as RM4+ to RM6+ peak.

During bad times, this stock can tank - like 2001, 2003, 2009, 2018, 2020 ... hard to define the bottom, but this is when price is say RM2 or below.

So, this stock is for trading. How much profits you make depends on Mr Market. If price goes down to RM2 or lower, then, this is great time to make a killing ... if price only drops a little down to RM3, then, profit is smaller.

Like this recent buy/sell @ 3.28/3.66 a minor one, with small profits, small position.
Nevertheless, I keep an interest in this stock by holding a small position for now, waiting for the time when Mr Market is highly pessimistic to add, and sell when Mr Market is highly optimistic.

Ironically, IB is likely to recommend the opposite - they will tell you to buy when price is high and rising (but near peak typically) and then tell you to sell when price has dropped with losses (and typically, it's more than halfway near bottom already).

For a great company like this, let price guides you when to buy and when to sell.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-10-16 18:42 | Report Abuse

At the current environment, what is interesting is how low will TAANN get over next 12 months.
Starting from Monthly charts (looking at past 23+ years), the obvious target is around RM3. I think there's 45% chance to hit RM3, 55% chance it won't hit that level, and if it hits RM3, the next 3 year payout is around 33% price gain + 6% dividend yield p.a., so, say 11%+6%~ 17% 12 month returns.
Next major support is around RM2.50. Harder to imagine getting hit here, maybe 20% chance? 80% chance it won't touch. But if it hits there, my position will be bigger and if it gets back to RM4 in say 3 years, my yearly gain is larger ~ 17%+6% ~ 23% p.a. returns over 3 years.
As for RM2, I think extremely unlikely in next 12 months. I give it only less than 5% chance, 95% chance won't happen. But if it happens and gets back to RM4 in 3 years time, the returns ~ 26%+6% = 32% p.a. returns over years

These are just rough concepts in my head, how I think about stock market investing. I am a firm believer that Market decides how much returns I get and not solely on me. Market decides 80%, me only 20%.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-10-16 18:46 | Report Abuse

The above numbers are concepts only - in reality, I will average down on this stock, so, if price hits RM3, my cost is higher than RM3, say RM3.1, and if price hits RM2.5, my cost will probably be around RM2.8 (?), and if price goes down to RM2, my cost may be around RM 2.5 (?), so, when price goes back up, the gains are not as large, but at the same time, when price are low, the dividend yield is higher than 6%, so, there are some partial offsets. But at the bottom, my holding will never be greater than 5% of my stock portfolio (occasionally 6%) so that if this stock goes bust, I can still recover.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-10-16 18:53 | Report Abuse

Drilling down to weekly charts over past 5 years, you get a better sense of how low a stock could go. On Monthly chart, I thought RM3 was strong support, but on weekly chart, it's RM3.03 - so, you fine tune. But I still think a minority (45%) chance to hit RM3.03.

Drilling down to daily charts over past year, you see some minor supports around 3.18-3.20, so, this one has 49/51 chance of getting hit I think. It's a coin toss for me, I got no clue whether it'll go down that low but it feels like 49/51 chance? If it gets there, I'll add a little bit, as my holding is still small.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-10-16 19:00 | Report Abuse

So, I do this for only a very small number of selected stocks - it must be companies that I would be happy to own in its entirity meaning on current market cap of say 1.45 billion, if I have that much money, I would like to own this company in its entirity i.e. the lower market price falls, I will keep accumulating.

However, there are not that many companies in Bursa like this quality.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-10-16 19:02 | Report Abuse

The other thing is I assumed 3 years recovery. Sometimes, it stretches to 4 years, or 5 years, or 6 years ... the timing is also decided by Mr Market and not me. So, it has to be with long term monies like EPF type monies that you don't plan to spend.

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2023-10-18 15:35 | Report Abuse

Good catch yesterday. Hahaha

Posted by simon000000 > 2023-10-19 01:48 | Report Abuse

Still die.... until 2.85

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2023-10-19 11:20 | Report Abuse

Hahaha, while CPO future has rebounded, but so many weak hands are still selling.

Posted by Golf123 > 2023-10-31 02:25 | Report Abuse

Just hold for dividend

Posted by simon000000 > 2023-11-09 21:58 | Report Abuse

3.80 on the way

Posted by calvintaneng > 2023-11-23 09:21 | Report Abuse

WHY SINGAPORE STRONGEST BANK DBS GROUP LOVES TO BUY MALAYSIA SMALL CAP PALM OIL STOCKS, Calvin Tan

https://sgx.i3investor.com/blogs/Jbhouseforsale/2023-11-23-story-h4959...

Posted by titan3322 > 2023-11-23 10:53 | Report Abuse

Will likely report poor results for qtr ending September 30 2023 !

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2023-11-23 11:14 | Report Abuse

Dividend coming?

Posted by Golf123 > 2023-11-24 12:42 | Report Abuse

Long term invest, carbon credit will help.

Posted by Mabel > 2023-11-26 10:32 | Report Abuse

India is the largest importer of Malaysia’s CPO and they really need our help as Shah Rukh Khan, Amitabh Bachchan, Aamir Khan, Salman Khan, Kajol, Priyanka Chopra, Deepika Padukone etc needs help urgently. Their Capati and Tossie does not taste the same without Mabel Oil.

Right now Malaysia can only be able to export about four million tonnes to the country. Sarawak, please work harder, we need to increase another 2 million tonnes.

Mabel Oil Production: MPOA 1-20 October 2023
Peninsular Malaysia: (+) 4.83%
Sabah: (+) 4.26%
Sarawak: (-) 0.54%
East Malaysia: (+) 2.99%
Total Malaysia: (+) 4.14%

Posted by Mabel > 2023-11-26 10:32 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2023/11/25/india-asks-for-six-million-tonnes-of-palm-oil-from-m039sia-says-dpm

Posted by titan3322 > 2023-11-28 19:41 | Report Abuse

Div not bad although reported lower profit 😀😀

Posted by calvintaneng > 2023-11-28 20:28 | Report Abuse

A generous 15 sen dividend
👏
👏

Posted by calvintaneng > 2023-11-29 04:27 | Report Abuse

JAYA TIASA (4383) LATEST RESULT SHOWS A HUGE SURPRISE JUMP IN PROFIT: UP BY 100% KUDOS TO YOUR EXCELLENT HARD, WELL DONE! WELL DONE!! WORK , Calvin Tan

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2023-11-29-story-h-214097097-JAYA_TIASA_4383_LATEST_RESULT_SHOWS_A_HUGE_SURPRISE_JUMP_IN_PROFIT_UP_B

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2023-11-29 07:37 | Report Abuse

Promoting Jtiasa in other plantation forums is like promoting Sheng Siong in Fair Price, CS Fresh, Cold Storage or other supermarkets.