Posted by Phoebe > 2024-01-15 12:03 | Report Abuse

Dig further into HTVB and ESSB over the weekend. I really puzzled by the RM123.4 FX translation loss, despite they stated as unrealized loss in their Q1 analyst briefing. I can only come to a conclusion either
1. They have so much money in USD that the fluctuation of USD causes the loss.
2. Their hedging went wrong.
3. They accept Turkish Lira as payment for their exports to Turkey, and lira has plunged a lot in the last 6 months.
4. They have ordered a lot of raw material for the 2.7 million MT production, but they have not paid, and somehow the forex is against them now.

https://htgrp.com.my/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Analyst-Presentation-1QFY24_31-October-2023.pdf

Anyway, with not much ESSB information, it is difficult to know the reason for the loss. However, in the same presentation deck, management reveals that ESSB produces 237.5 kMT and the revenue is RM 611.6 million, Meaning that ESSB is selling RM 2,575 per metric tonne. With a 12% gross profit margin, it is quite close to the RM 2200 production cost the CEO informed the AGM. Hence, with new BF, a further 10% saving is expected, and this gives about 22% GPM. Therefore, with the new capacity of 2.7 million MT and considering 20% GPM, the potential gross profit is RM 1.35 billion. Net profit after tax estimate around RM1 billion annually. Net profit to HTVB is RM273 million, and that is equivalent to RM0.15 just from ESSB alone? Is this too good to be true?

The CEO informed that with the HRC mill, the produce will be 70% domestic and 30% export. Hope this will help in reducing the FX translation effect.

The government has allocated more than RM 90 billion for infrastructure development for 5 yrs, and last year only RM 15 billion was spent, and there is RM 75 billion to spent, meaning RM 25 billion each year. Upcoming November will be Anwar's 2nd year as PM and he needs to boost the economy, and building infrastructure is the most effective way to generate GDP. I will definitely monitor the ESSB HRC mill closely, and I think HTVB is worth to watch.

Posted by Phoebe > 2024-01-15 12:27 | Report Abuse

I'm not sure if he is a goreng king but they don't give much dividend because they require the money for ESSB. For last few Q, they been dragged down by ESSB losses but i guess things about to change. All Capex has been set in. ESSB will start giving out 30% of profit as dividend starting 2025 which is next year. This will improve HTVB cash flow and possibly of giving better dividend.

Posted by young man > 2024-01-15 15:15 | Report Abuse

when things are too good to believe, mean it's very dangerous. avoid avoid

Posted by tksw > 2024-01-15 15:59 | Report Abuse

Kolek but by bit when big boys push it down....

Posted by tksw > 2024-01-15 16:45 | Report Abuse

Phoebe sifu, I oni know one thing, they are able to get mani to invest in ESSB ....

Posted by tksw > 2024-01-15 16:48 | Report Abuse

Push to close 375 today?

Posted by investopology > 2024-01-15 17:25 | Report Abuse

Everyone is eyeing hiaptek. The king of goreng.

Posted by Income > 2024-01-15 17:47 | Report Abuse

Tksw Sir, I support High Tek, I buy first.
Don’t say I don’t support buying Hi Tek here.

Posted by Income > 2024-01-15 17:50 | Report Abuse

When you see Rr88 coming here, we are too late to buy Hi tech lah.
Now or tomorrow I still buy here. I am beginning to love steel or iron here.
Tksw Sir is the real taukeh here. Thank you Sir.

Posted by investopology > 2024-01-15 19:11 | Report Abuse

HSR and many upcoming project required a lot of steel and metal

Posted by Phoebe > 2024-01-15 20:36 | Report Abuse

tksw, stop calling me sifu as I no sifu.
& Young man right. Dun beliv my words. Do read the annual report, quarterly report and analyst presentation deck.
The reason I can think off for the continuevpressure of the price might due to the Red sea conflict. With 40% production export To Turkey, it will affect the revenue if it is affected. However, I believe this is short term.

Posted by speakup > 2024-01-15 21:06 | Report Abuse

You're a genius!

Posted by Phoebe > 2024-01-16 07:34 | Report Abuse

The red sea conflicts is an issue affecting many exporters and not Hiaptek alone. And it is not a show stopper because there is another route which take 9 to 14 days more to reach the destination. Usually seller is FOB port and buyer responsible for the shipping cost but I'm not sure in ESSB arrangement. The demand might reduce due to higher shipping charges because longer route but then Malaysia steel export to Turkey has added advantage. Under MTFTA, the Malaysian steel exports to Turkey should be fully tax-free starting August'23. That also explains the sudden rise in ESSB exports to Turkey for 0 a year ago to 46% currently. And again, if the drop of HTVB is really due to the conflicts, i deem this is short term because it affect other company and not to mention countries as well.

Posted by Income > 2024-01-16 08:50 | Report Abuse

Samseng Houthi not scared of Ume rika… How?
I don’t care… I buy bit by bit

Posted by Phoebe > 2024-01-16 09:04 | Report Abuse

Yes...accumulate slowly and I'm doing the same too. I now waiting for the upcoming Q report (For Nov -Jan). It should show the full capacity of 2.7mil MT since the new blast furnace was put into operation on 8th Oct'23. However, management did say that it will only go achieve full capacity in 1Q'24.

Posted by tksw > 2024-01-16 10:12 | Report Abuse

Phoebe sifu, confusious said sifu is everywhere... Sure no wrong to call you sifu seeing what you said.

Posted by tksw > 2024-01-16 10:14 | Report Abuse

Income sifu, dun buy so many first, when the big boys kolek, they wanna kolek cheap cheap.... Slow slow follow them

Posted by Phoebe > 2024-01-16 11:45 | Report Abuse

55 cents? Hmm, I'm aiming a little bit higher than that....anyway, TP varies on each individual and timeframe. All is certain is ESSB is growing and should benefit HTVB. Completing the HRC mill is only phase 2. There is a phase 3 plan to grow to 5Mil MT but lets reap the fruits for phase 2 1st. Like cold eyes said, most important criteria is growth. No growth dun buy. @^_^@

Posted by fregend > 2024-01-16 15:49 | Report Abuse

huge volume of sellers everyday

Posted by Income > 2024-01-16 19:42 | Report Abuse

tksw Sir,
That’s why I call you tksw Sir… because you know how big boys doing their jobs here. Thank you tksw Sir.


Posted by tksw > Jan 16, 2024 10:14 AM | Report Abuse

Income sifu, dun buy so many first, when the big boys kolek, they wanna kolek cheap cheap.... Slow slow follow them

Posted by investopology > 2024-01-17 14:47 | Report Abuse

lol 365 now. Seem like many kena caught by operator

Posted by tksw > 2024-01-17 15:07 | Report Abuse

Miniminer.sifu, the sellers slap you today... Pai-si hor...

Posted by hng33 > 2024-01-17 15:15 | Report Abuse

cut at 37-37.5sen

Posted by Phoebe > 2024-01-17 15:22 | Report Abuse

I start to accumulate more.

Posted by Phoebe > 2024-01-17 16:16 | Report Abuse

Huh? What Green Dragon and big lady??? oh Dear....i hope the big lady is not me....

Posted by DickyMe > 2024-01-17 16:54 | Report Abuse

"Posted by DickyMe > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

35 sen coming soon!
=================

Will buy more if it dip below 35 sen
Will buy "morer" if it dip below 30 sen
Will buy "morest" if it dip below 25 sen.

Kikikiki.

Posted by Income > 2024-01-17 17:43 | Report Abuse

Dicky
You very bad,
Don’t laugh at people losing money



DickyMe "Posted by DickyMe > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

35 sen coming soon!
=================

Will buy more if it dip below 35 sen
Will buy "morer" if it dip below 30 sen
Will buy "morest" if it dip below 25 sen.

Kikikiki.
17/01/2024 4:54 PM

Posted by DickyMe > 2024-01-17 17:58 | Report Abuse

I am not laughing at them, but at the opportunity it will present for me to accumulate.

Posted by stopprocastinating > 2024-01-17 20:48 | Report Abuse

Newbie in trading. There’s plenty of master here and I am gonna follow.

Posted by Phoebe > 2024-01-17 20:51 | Report Abuse

Every investor have their own way in investing. I guess because it broken the sma200 indicator which suppose to be a strong support. Once broken, it indicate sign of downtrend. That is why heavy selling. I not a technical person. Hence I will stick to accumulate at weakness and wait for upcoming QR.

Posted by Income > 2024-01-18 07:34 | Report Abuse

tksw Sir, can I buy here? Or I still waiting? Thanks

Posted by Income > 2024-01-18 07:35 | Report Abuse

Even Hng Sir CL

hng33
cut at 37-37.5sen
17/01/2024 3:15 PM

Posted by tksw > 2024-01-18 09:07 | Report Abuse

Die lor... Hng sifu oso cur loss....😓

Posted by tksw > 2024-01-18 09:11 | Report Abuse

Income sifu, I dun know wor....

Posted by tksw > 2024-01-18 09:14 | Report Abuse

Dicky me sifu told what he will do mah....

Posted by Phoebe > 2024-01-18 09:53 | Report Abuse

Trader investor need to adhere to their strategy and hence if certain signal shows downtrend, they need to cutloss. While Fundamental investor will continue to monitor and add as long the fundamental did not change, it is opportunity to add more. So, let's wait and see how it turns out in the 2Q.

Posted by tksw > 2024-01-18 10:47 | Report Abuse

366 bot back a bit...

Posted by tksw > 2024-01-18 11:02 | Report Abuse

Can oni bit a bit, else kena slap by the sellers...😓

Posted by Mini Bull > 2024-01-18 12:02 | Report Abuse

Sure kena slap

Posted by Mini Bull > 2024-01-18 12:02 | Report Abuse

no operator nor director support

Posted by Mini Bull > 2024-01-18 13:25 | Report Abuse

if any right issue or private placement request, i guess this stock will gg

Posted by Phoebe > 2024-01-18 14:02 | Report Abuse

CEO did bought 2M shares at 0.39.
The company did says in the AGM that there is no plan for right issue. But good point on the Private placement.

Posted by DickyMe > 2024-01-18 14:53 | Report Abuse

PP @ what price?

Posted by SeekUndervalued > 2024-01-18 15:20 | Report Abuse

@Mini Bull, if break 0.36, where is the next support? 0.32?

Posted by Phoebe > 2024-01-18 16:31 | Report Abuse

I mean management didn't mention anything on PP.

Posted by Mini Bull > 2024-01-18 16:58 | Report Abuse

immediate support is 0.35 now

Posted by Mini Bull > 2024-01-18 16:59 | Report Abuse

this stock i guess will go sideway

Posted by Income > 2024-01-18 19:34 | Report Abuse

I don’t CL. I biar dia lompat kembali 40 sen. Holding power… must be strong

Posted by SeekUndervalued > 2024-01-18 21:30 | Report Abuse

@Mini Bull, thanks for your info.

Posted by Income > 2024-01-19 05:20 | Report Abuse

This counter real taukeh is Tksw= Taukeh Kaut semua wang