OBSERVATIONS ON STOCKS WITH POTENTIAL

NAIM : POTENTIAL PRIVATISATION PLAY ?

winbigbursa
Publish date: Fri, 29 Nov 2019, 12:20 AM
winbigbursa
0 1
Highlight some stocks in BURSA that have potential to perform, just some observations for considerations and discussion.

These are not recommendations to Buy or Sell.

Pls. Buy or Sell on your own choice as there are Risks of loss in stock market.
Following Message
Naim was listed on KL Stock Exchange on 13th Sep. 2003 and closed at 1.84 , on 1st day of listing, with a market cap. of RM 460 m.
 
At today's price of 0.99 sen, Naim's current market cap. is only RM 495 m, based on 500 m share cap. 
 
After 16 yrs of listing, Naim's market cap. has increased only 7.6%, even though NTA is now 2.62 compared to 1.52  in 2003.
 
Its O&G & Construction business segment are performing well and expected to contribute increased revenue & bumper profits in the coming Qtrs.
 
The property business segment downturn has also bottom and rebounded in the latest Qtr, to contribute RM 2 m profits.
 
NAIM is also viewed as a favoured proxy to Sarawak's infrastructure , O&G & state elections play.
 
Thus , the future prospects for NAIM looks very promising from the business aspects.
 
Based on the latest Qtr results, of 7.25 sen with total 9 mth eps of 9.6 sen , Naim deserve a much higher price range, way above rm1.
 
The market has  made many attempts to rerate Naim's price but its attempted rally could not sustain due to subsequent sell downs which pushed its price below rm1 ( as many as 25 times this yr !)
 
What could be a rational explanation for this ?
 
 
 Analysis of Share Holdings 29 Mar 2019       (31 Mar 2018) 

% of issued Capital 

less than 1001                      0.12%                0.23% 
1001-10,000                         3.10%                5.00% 
10,001-100,000                    9.14%               13.28% 
100001-25037165               33.75%               41.03%  (less than 5% of issue capital) 
25,037166 n above              53.89%               40.46%  (5% n above of issue capital) 


 A review of the share holdings show that the 4 majority shareholders now own a whooping 53.89% compared to 40.46% last year.

All other group of shareholders has reduced holdings compared to last year.

 

So, it is pertinent to ask, " Are the majority shareholders planning to privatise NAIM  ? "

That would make sense to NAIM's underperforming price this year, wouldnt it ?

Would it be rewarding for small investors to hold onto NAIM's shares  in case the  potential privatisation play become a reality ?

 

Happy Investing.. 

p/s writer is invested in Naim

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Labels: NAIM

 

 

NAIM (5073)
Related Stocks
Market Buzz
Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 6 of 6 comments

winbigbursa

admin, request your help to add the labels for NAIM article, thank you.

2019-11-29 00:22

abang_misai

Thanks for the article. I think privatisation will only happen next Monday

2019-11-30 10:59

winbigbursa

the price movement of NAIM since 29/11, indicate that no privatisation by the majority shareholders is likely for NAIM for now.

Nevertheless, NAIM is worth a 2nd look, as it is the top performer for the property sector this year, up 140% from 31.12.2018 close of 44.5 sen, to end at 1.07 today.

Its 26.42 % interest in assoc. Dayang is worth a hefty rm703.6 million !(est. cost rm158.5m), which gives a worth of rm1.36 per NAIM share.

How, the stellar mgmt deals with the potential investment gains in Dayang, is a happy problem for 2020.

With 9mth eps of 9.62 sen so far, n the 4th Qtr results expected to be good, a strong rerating for NAIM is expected when the full results is released by end-Feb 2020.

2019-12-31 20:40

winbigbursa

Conservative Guestimate for NAIM 4rd Qtr results :

3rd Qtr eps_________________ 7.25 sen main contribution is assoc. Dayang strong earnings, expected to be maintain /better for 4rd Qtr

total 9mth eps (2019)_________ 9.62 sen
4rd Qtr eps guestimate________ 7.25 sen
conservative 2019 eps_________16.87 sen

on Good years, 4rd Qtr results normally is strongest, take conservative view, same as 3rd Qtr,


based on PE of 8 , min. value for NAIM = 16.87 * 8 = 135 sen , ie RM 1.35.

NAIM current price is RM 1.02 , min upside of 33 sen (+32%)

this does not take into account the bright prospects of NAIM for 2020 :

- continual strong contribution for O&G (dayang) sector
- construction sector increased revenue & profit from state govt infrastructure, road projects
- contribution from Pan Borneo Highway project
- State govt election play in 2020/21
- revival of property sector prospects in 2020
- share investment gain in 26.42% assoc Dayang of more than rm525m
Its 26.42 % interest in assoc. Dayang is worth a hefty rm684 million !(est. cost rm158.5m) , based on price of rm2.44 on 7/1/2020

2020-01-08 07:02

winbigbursa

NAIM's 10 yr average PE range from 7.6-15.4 for 2005-2015.
(2016-2018 are abnormally down yrs, excluded)

with conservative est. eps of 16.87 sen,

NAIM price is seen to range from rm 1.28 to rm 2.59 for 2020,

depending on the catalysts/ news flow in focus.

at current price of rm1.02, investors are assured of a comfortable win !
Good luck to all holders !

2020-01-08 09:06

winbigbursa

It is true that NAIM's 26.42 (280.3 m shares) in Dayang is reflected at cost of rm158.5m in the Balance Sheet.
With projected tp of rm3 for Dayang by feb, due to its expected, stellar results for 2019, NAIM will have a BIG JACKPOT OF rm840m or rm 1.63 backing per NAIM share.
total projected NTA for NAIM is 1.63+2.62 = rm4.25 per share !!
(does not even include projeced min. eps of 17 sen for 2019.)
So, what is the fair value for NAIM ? any experts can help ?

2020-01-13 11:04

Post a Comment