HLBank Research Highlights
Property Sector - Closing the loop holes?
Highlights
It was reported over the weekend in the Edge Weekly that developers are currently offering interest rebate schemes similar to DIBS, although more “manual” as the property buyer has to pay interest to the bank first before claiming rebates from developers for a period of up to two years.
As an example, the Edge Weekly reported that UEMS offers cash rewards of RM4,000 per month for two years for its Arcoris project in Mont Kiara.
While the regulators’ stand on this matter has yet to be clarified, we believe there is a strong likelihood of new measures being imposed on developers, given the government’s intentions to curb property speculation. This would dampen sales of new property projects.
On a separate note, we visited the Star Property Fair over the weekend as well, and noted that the crowds were sparse, an indication of cooling appetite in the primary market (Figure #1 & Figure #2).
Our survey also indicated that developers are generally avoiding offering DIBS for new projects, with some offering interest rebate schemes similar to DIBS for high rise projects. As expected, developers still do not offer DIBS for landed projects. Developers also acknowledged that they expect the cooling measures to adversely impact their sales.
Given the effects of the cooling measures tabled in Budget 2014 (please refer to our report “Knee-jerk Opportunities” dated Oct 28th ), we re-iterate our Neutral stance on the sector, and continue to prefer landed township developers like Matrix (BUY, TP RM3.40) as it targets owner occupiers rather than investors.
Catalysts
Infrastructure related catalysts; inflation hedging virtues of property; sustainable demand; high affordability ratio; declining NPL ratio for property loans.
Risks
Rising NPL ratios and loss of holding power; margin erosion due to raw material price spikes and/or lower selling prices; slowdown in sales / cut back in launches.
Rating
NEUTRAL
Positives: Asset reflation theme remains intact over the longer term; increased opportunities within the affordable/mass market segment.
Negatives: Slowdown in demand for mid/high end segment and economic growth; tighter lending polices by banks.
Top Picks
Matrix: Share price continues to perform well, thanks to strong optimism over its township earnings and high DY (10% for FY13, with balance 6.2% DY unpaid).
Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 11 Nov 2013
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Discussions
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I already warned viewers some couple of weeks ago to avoid Empire City and Empire Damansara. I drive past these 2 projects nearly everyday and I have noticed work in nearly all the towers has somewhat stopped and predicted that Empire City will be abandoned even before Budget 2014. And the bankers financing these projects will run into trouble. This is the beginning of the bursting of the property bubble
2013-11-11 20:47
Fairjimmy! Since you are very expert in property because I do notice your very in depth knowledge! What do you think property will be in coming months!
2013-11-11 21:05
@fairjimmy, I got some rumors circulating few days back, hence decided to check up. Upon checking, yes, it is without activity....
@andychucky28, those hot cake launches still selling like madness la....nothing stopping those lunatic rich property investors...they are still placing bulk orders like 50 units in a go....really crazy...you really will not believe it. there are so many rich peoples in Klang Valley
2013-11-11 21:11
Satan! You are one very sad insane person! I simply don't know what the heck you mumbling about, or what the heck you trying to say, and always looking for someone to fight in this forum and let me tell you, the worst part is you like to laugh at your own jokes which does not make sense and you are the only person understand!
2013-11-11 21:15
Satan! I know you are full of angry for me to tell you are mentally ill!
2013-11-11 21:19
Nightshade....if u were at the property fair yesterday.....u would understand.......anyway good opinion and not taking from ass lockers!!....lol
2013-11-11 21:20
What are you trying to say Satan! You completely insane! I wont reply to you anymore! Wait a waste of time!
2013-11-11 21:22
Somebody can b an expert in many ways...
When he really knows
When he knows more than an ass licker
When the ass licker is dumb
2013-11-11 21:23
I already commented on Empire City under MKLand on 2 Nov. Locals are not buying anymore. Only a few singaporeans are buying. Property market will be extremely soft over the next 6-12 months. Its a buyers market and there will bargains galore soon. Many projects will be abandoned soon beginning with Empire City
2013-11-12 08:27
I commented to sell all property counters and put money on sumatec on or before 9 Nov under UEMS, wasting opportunity costs. Sumatec was then trading at abt .40 cts. Of course I went in earlier at abt 0.30 early Nov. Today/now its trading at 0.48 cts. Some think it will go to 0.60?
2013-11-12 11:52
Another disincentive for buying property and property companies esp in KL is the increase in assessment. From 1st Jan 2014 assessments for all properties have been increased DBKL by more than 100%. In my case my house assessments have been increased from RM 300 to RM 720. For speculators/investors who are unable to let their units, this will be an additional financial burden. So pls think twice before buying. caveat emptor
2013-11-13 13:02
As US pullback their dollars in emerging market, capital will be fast dwelling! Banks will have no choice but to raise interest and tighten housing loans! It may take sometime for Bank Negara to raise BLR but surely banks definitely in the know raising few basis point is in the card! As Hong Kong, Singapore, China tighten their grip on speculators, property market in Bolehland will have a rough year next year! Its a buyer market soon! Glut of properties unheard of! 2005 was the year bulk of properties auction off until lawyers have tons of files lying on their desk begging to be auction! Only certain area like Iskandar, Penang and Klang Valley may see continuous demand due to necessary! Banks together with auction houses will be busy recouping their capital! Welcome to reality of bubble bursting!
2013-11-13 13:11
Let's see how the property market react in a year.
A very annoying thing is that whenever we retailer visit showroom, *sold out* is too common, they will just take our names & try to push sales for bigger / expensive units. More like all sapu by property agent.
2013-11-13 13:12
Keep this link! You have tons of choices when the bubble burst! http://auctions.com.my/
2013-11-13 13:13
Another blow for property comapnies is the recent introduction of a LEVY of 2% by Johor State Govt on properties purchased by foreigners. Penang is currently mulling a LEVY of 3%. They are merely following measures adopted by other countries to curb speculation. If the interest rate is to go up by say 1 or 2% due to tapering, many speculators and flippers and property companies will go belly up and bankrupt
2013-11-13 14:29
Empire should be isolated case
go bankrupt? that is exaggerating. Well establish property companies always got backup plans...
worst case 1: delay launches
worst case 2: slash profit margin, as long as can maintain sales & minimum profit
worst case 3: force buyers to buy - final ultimate move
wtf ! force buyers to buy??! surprising le...it is not impossible....it can be done,this is not a joke
2013-11-13 14:56
Once buyers arrange their bank loans, developers can have peace of mind! Developers dont give a damn once their project sold off! The burden will be to banks! Its the small unlisted developers that will go burst! Listed ones most probable defer their projects! Looking at current scenario, dont be surprise developers are aggressive selling their unsold projects pushing potential buyers to confirm! Next year and year ahead, most buyers or speculators will get bankrupt! I have seen these 10 years back so no surprise these will repeat itself! So its unwise to buy property counters now! Wait and see!
2013-11-13 17:18
agree....buy and invest in OnG instead....can have peace of mind !!
2013-11-13 17:24
Mesti correct as predicted. As investors one has to think of opportunity costs. Developers do that all the time as well. Holding on is not a smart rational strategy
2013-11-13 18:16
Petty those too defensive or living in denial regard to impact from RPGT, levy, GST and bank loans tightening compounded by increase interest rate and blr! What do you do if you see more challenges ahead! Do you live in dream world thinking and hoping property counters will go up or take immediate steps to cut position weeks ago and go into high margin counters! We are only small time investors with limited capital! Don't be too smart and deny property will going into tail spin cycle!
2013-11-13 18:36
I can bet if you talk to banks, developers especially their marketing team, you will hear fairy tale story of how robust sales are! And the usually tactics of 'soldout' to force you into buying at higher prices! You don't believe, try to pretend you desperate to own that particular unit, you keep calling their sales team, eventually you will get it with much higher mark up! So you are happy been con! Congrate!
2013-11-13 18:38
If you open the auction house link that I provided earlier, you will still be able to buy RM30 thousand properties in klang! I know this for years as I use to have lawyer friend who pushing me to buy tons of auction properties lying on his desk! Back in 2005, you can even buy prime single storey house in Kuala Lumpur for only RM100 thousand! And to think that so many are buying half a million condo a size of my parking space! I call these people peanut brains!
2013-11-13 18:44
Mahsing at 2.09 from the peak of 2.50 only in Oct and UEMS at 2.27 from peak of RM 3.00 in Aug/sept. Facts speak for themselves
2013-11-13 18:47
I used to play UEMS! The last was Friday during Budget 2013! Sold at 2.60! Now almost all property counters on their lows!
2013-11-13 18:58
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
nightshade
anyone taking any units with Empire Mammoth Group? your nightmare coming soon if you did....their tower cranes at 2 of their current project sites idling without activities....
2013-11-11 20:41