ALLIANZ MALAYSIA BHD

KLSE (MYR): ALLIANZ (1163)

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Last Price

13.68

Today's Change

-0.08 (0.58%)

Day's Change

13.68 - 13.78

Trading Volume

7,500

Overview

Market Cap

2,435 Million

NOSH

178 Million

Avg Volume (4 weeks)

18,083

4 Weeks Range

13.24 - 13.94

4 Weeks Price Volatility (%)

62.86%

52 Weeks Range

12.18 - 13.94

52 Weeks Price Volatility (%)

85.23%

Previous Close

13.68

Open

13.78

Bid

13.68 x 2,200

Ask

13.70 x 100

Day's Range

13.68 - 13.78

Trading Volume

7,500

Financial Highlight

Latest Quarter | Ann. Date

30-Sep-2022 [#3] | 23-Nov-2022

Next QR | Est. Ann. Date

31-Dec-2022 | 22-Feb-2023

T4Q P/E | EY

5.28 | 18.94%

T4Q DY | Payout %

5.76% | 30.40%

T4Q NAPS | P/NAPS

24.05 | 0.57

T4Q NP Margin | ROE

6.84% | 10.77%

Market Buzz
Company Profile

Sector: FINANCIAL SERVICES

Sector: FINANCIAL SERVICES

Subsector: INSURANCE

Subsector: INSURANCE

Description:

Allianz Malaysia Bhd is a diversified insurance company that provides life and general insurance in Malaysia. The vast majority of the company?s revenue is generated through insurance premiums, with the remainder stemming from investment income as well as fee and commission income. The company?s general insurance includes automotive, home, and personal insurance. Allianz Malaysia?s business insurance includes fire, engineering, and liability insurance. The company also offers life insurance through a variety of its products.

Discussions
7 people like this. Showing 50 of 1,143 comments

observatory

Back to the topic of foreign insurers being forced to dispose 30% stake/ donation. Let's explore a bit.

You mentioned AIA/Prudential/Tokio Marine/Zurich. Assume their combined size in Malaysia is double of Allianz. Currently Allianz's market cap is ~RM4.5b (inclusive of ICPS). At a similar valuation, these four foreign insurers' Malaysian business equity value should be around RM10b.

If they are to be valued at say 50% higher, a 30% stake will worth around RM10b * 1.5 * 30% = RM4b to RM5b range. Not a small sum under current market condition, but still doable. For comparison, the twenty odd Bursa IPOs in 2021 including CTOS raised a total of RM2+ billion.

Who could be the buyers? Local banks like Affin and Am Bank have trimmed their insurance arms. Not sure if larger banks, especially the bancassurance partners of these foreign insurers will be willing to pay premium to acquire stakes.

I suppose GLIC like EPF, KWAP, Khazanah have the capacity to take a slice or even as sole partner. But again are they willing to pay premium?

The negotiation over valuation will not be easy. Don't see why these local investors would like to pay premium for insurers given the competitive market, especially listed insurers are currently priced below EVs. On the other hand, the foreign insurers could not justify to their shareholders if they sell on the cheap. Perhaps that was the reason that Great Eastern donated RM2billion?

2022-07-21 01:05

wsb_investor

GE donated the 2bil in a smart way, that's why you don't see a P/L impact of -2bil for GE, and why they opt for this donation. However, the same way is not possible for AIA and Pru. There is no way they will just donate anything. JV is more likely than IPO. Previously in 2018, Pru was exploring JV with KWAP. In term of big GLC, we still got KWSP and PNB. Khazanah already own Sunlife, not sure if will still keen to have a bigger stake.

AIA and Pru are more well established and have been constantly paying dividend, IPO is still OK option. Tokio Marine is much smaller size, and Zurich is still loss making, which make it hardest to fulfill the new regulation.

2022-07-21 09:47

observatory

Why did you say GE donated in a smart way? Why can't other insurers copy its way?
If the issue remains unresolved in time, what are the likely action by BNM? Stop them from underwriting new policies?

2022-07-21 20:12

wsb_investor

In 2011, ING Malaysia, with TEV of 952mil USD, VNB of 48mil USD, sold to AIA at 1.73bil USD. Allianz Life now with MCEV of 3.5bil MYR, VNB 275mil MYR, but Allianz market cap (with GI) = 4.47 bil MYR.

2022-07-23 22:26

observatory

True. We've discussed this point before. However, usually the full valuation can only be realized during M&A, where the buyers are willing to pay the full value for controlling stake. At normal times rational minority investors like EPF, who has no control over the company, are right to demand a discount as their margin of safety.
Similar behavior can be observed in other companies too, for example YTL Power. Based on the recent M&A case in the UK market, the full valuation of its UK asset alone is already a few times over its current market cap. Yet I believe the market is also rational to value the company based only on its dividend yield rather than more elusive asset valuation.
Personally, as a patient investor here, knowing the EV, NBV growth etc gives me peace of mind on the downside protection, while hoping for dividend to grow in the future. When that happens share price should follow. But it probably takes time.

2022-07-24 11:31

observatory

Annual reports showed that in 2013 the market cap reached RM4.2b. But PBT and shareholders' fund then were only half of today's.

I noted GWP growth hit 19.9% in 2013, before slowing to about 3% in 2015-17. Last year growth was 7.2%. Maybe the slower growth has made the stock less appealing to the market.

2022-07-27 23:50

observatory

LPI has just released Q2 results. Its motor net claims incurred ratio for 2Q22 is 88.8%, as compared to just 60.8% in 2Q21, and 76.3% in 1Q22. The ratio is around low 70% before the pandemic.

According to its press release, "The increase was due to a higher frequency of motor claims reported as most vehicles were back on the road, and due to the increase in average third party bodily injury claims reserve as a result of an increasing trend in court awards."

I wonder if the factor of court catching up with backlog will also show up in Allianz General claim ratio in Q2.

2022-08-02 18:56

observatory

"A landmark ruling by the Federal Court has held that victims of road accidents should be automatically compensated by insurance companies without requiring legal action to do so.
...
According to the report, of the eight appeals, five involved Pacific & Orient Insurance, Amgeneral Insurance, Allianz General Insurance Company, and Malaysian Motor Insurance Pool. The three-person bench, comprised of Rahman as well as Hasnah Mohammed Hashim and Rhodzariah Bujang, awarded RM150,000 in costs to each of the successful parties in the appeal.

The appeals came about as the insurance companies had obtained a declaration in the High Court to nullify the policies of motorists due to allegations of misconduct on the part of the vehicle owners, the FMT report said. This action had denied accident victims monetary compensation that had been due to them, prompting the appeals.
The appeals included a sambung bayar case, where the dispute arose when the vehicle owner attempted to claim on his vehicle following an accident.

However, he had “sold” his vehicle to a third party through such an arrangement, with the insurance company being unaware of this. When it learnt about this, it then obtained a declaration from the High Court to nullify the policy of the motorist, citing misconduct on the part of the vehicle owner. Following this, the insurer refused to cover the vehicle owner’s loss.

In another case, while the Sessions Court had found the driver of the other vehicle negligent after a full trial, the insurance company took a court order alleging it had been defrauded, and declined to pay the vehicle owner who was claiming for damages.

The case victim was eventually found to merely hold a paper judgement, which the Federal Court said was “not even worth the paper it was written on,” continuing that it was unfair because the victim’s constitutional rights to be treated fairly had been infringed"

https://paultan.org/2022/08/09/federal-court-rules-that-road-accident-victims-should-be-automatically-compensated-by-insurance-firms/

2022-08-10 12:16

observatory

With this ruling, motor insurance companies will automatically pick up the bill. It's only right that innocent accident victims should not go through the legal nightmare just because the motorists are at fault and insurance companies refuse to pay. But could there be unintended consequences?

With the ongoing liberalization, insurance companies need to better differentiate pricing based on motorists' past records, such as traffic summons.

2022-08-10 12:28

wsb_investor

ALLIANZ-PA 1 year high now, albeit mainly due to thinly traded

2022-08-19 13:35

Papayashot

Hi, may I know why the fair value loss for Allianz General is far far less than Allianz Life? I think most premiums will be invested in bonds right? Both Allianz General and Life invested in different types of bonds kah?

2022-08-24 18:24

wsb_investor

General liability shorter term, life liability longer term.

2022-08-24 19:15

observatory

It seems that life NBV growth remains weak. The presentation mentions lower sales volume from agency (slide 21, 23)
https://www.allianz.com.my/content/dam/onemarketing/azmb/wwwallianzcommy/pdf/investor-updates/2022/2022_Q2_AMB_Analyst_Briefing.pdf

2022-08-24 19:22

Papayashot

Hi observatory, it seems like the whole insurance industry NBV growth is kinda weak.. Wonder whether high inflation plays a role here

2022-08-24 19:24

Papayashot

can anyone advise on how the core profit number is calculated? Would it be fairer if compare core profit y-o-y?

2022-08-24 19:39

observatory

Yes, the demand is weak across the industry. In the current year prospect section, it mentions that the higher inflation may impact claim costs while lower disposable income may impact consumers’ purchasing power and spending on longer-term commitments such as insurance products.

2022-08-24 19:52

observatory

You may refer to slide 7 on core PBT calculation. It strips off the FV and tax effects.

2022-08-24 19:54

Papayashot

Hi observatory, from slide 7 of Analyst briefing, the fair value loss is -68.6 mil..
But in the Q2-2022 Quarter Report, the 6Month fair value loss is - 594 mil??

Am I wrong somewhere?

2022-08-24 21:59

observatory

Sorry I have no idea too. Maybe others can help explain.

2022-08-24 23:35

wsb_investor

594 should be assets side impact only, whereas 69 is net position. Interest rate up will reduce bond MV and reduce liability concurrently.

2022-08-25 00:39

observatory

@wsb_investor, thanks for the explanation. It makes sense. Liability will reduce when the assumed discount rate is raised.
However is it common for insurance companies to change their discount rate assumption from quarter to quarter? This could open up opportunity for life insurers (probably not Allianz) to massage their profits in every quarter, despite such reported profit may not be reflective of long term company potential.

2022-08-25 11:57

wsb_investor

Most of the liability measure with latest interest rate assumption, except a particular block of business. Another issue is that, there are reserve that floored to 0, so in comparison, less sensitive to interest rate movement. e.g. bond value drop, but reserve still floor to zero.

All these will be gone under IFRS17.

2022-08-25 14:13

Papayashot

hi @wsb_investor, does that mean the reported profit will be less sensitive to the fair value gain/drop in the upcoming IFRS 17?

2022-08-25 14:41

sheldon

Fellow investors, don't you think that whilst rise in interest rates may be bad in terms of fair value, the new cash flows form coupons, dividends & premiums will be able to invest at higher yields?

So rise in interest rates is a boon to the insurance companies.

Comments welcome

2022-08-29 10:25

wsb_investor

exclude one off impact, higher interest rate always better for Insurer.

2022-08-29 11:34

Papayashot

wondering on how IFRS 17 will impact on the reporting on this investment fair value gain/loss in the income statement later on.... Any comments fellow investors?

2022-08-29 12:55

wsb_investor

Products measured under VFA will have minimal impact from investment fair value gain loss. Most of the products sold by Allianz will be under VFA.

2022-08-29 14:20

Papayashot

Quoted from RHB-OSK:
"under the new MFRS 17 standards effective 1 Jan 2023, underwriting profits are to be stretched out across the lifetime of the contract, whereas underwriting losses are charged to the income statement immediately."

Pretty surprising from their statement that the underwriting profit is stretched out throughout the contract period, whereas underwriting loss is charged into the income statement immediately...

RHB-OSK claimed that the reported profit in IFRS 17 might be lower..

Any comments on their statement above?

From their claim, it seems that the profit would emerge slower in IFRS17 as compared to the current accounting practice..

2022-08-29 14:20

wsb_investor

In general, profit will be slower, that is super general. Allianz Life has a very special concentration on ILP. This is from the AGM.

The Group do not provide forecast/estimates for financial results. It is observed that retained earnings would be higher under MRFS 17 as compared to the current MFRS 4 mainly contributed by faster profit emergence for investment-linked products, and deferral of acquisition cost.

2022-08-29 17:22

Papayashot

Hi wsb_investor, quoted from you "In general, profit will be slower, that is super general. "..

As in MFRS 4, profit for Allianz Life (mainly ILP) is already slow. How come in MFRS 17, profit will be even slower?

2022-08-29 18:02

wsb_investor

Sunlife IFRS17 investor education:
1. Traditional insurance business has higher impact driven by deferral of new business gains.
2. Higher expected profit recorded in early years for VUL products in Asia. (VUL here not exactly ILP, but ILP is much more profitable vs VUL)


https://www.sunlife.com/content/dam/sunlife/regional/global-marketing/documents/com/sun-life-may-31-ifrs-17-education-final.pdf

2022-08-31 14:59

observatory

A report from Am Investment Bank:
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/pricetarget/research/64791

The last point "Upon the adoption of FRS 17, the negative revaluation on the group’s life insurance’s investments which dampened the group’s net profit in FY21 and FY22 will no longer have any P&L impact from FY23F onwards. We understand that the marked-to-market changes in valuation of securities portfolio commencing from next year will flow through the comprehensive income."

Is that true?

2 months ago

wsb_investor

That is a very general statement. Under IFRS17, there are 2 key measurement models (VFA/GMM). Assets hold can also further split into "assets backing liabilities" and surplus assets (excess assets above liabilities, mainly to support required capital). Only assets backing VFA liabilities will have 0 P&L impact on change in fair value. GMM business and surplus assets will still subject to the usual change in fair value impact.

2 months ago

observatory

Thank you for the clarification.
Based on balance sheet as of Jun 30, the assets side has about RM20b investments, RM1b reinsurance asset. Insurance contract liabilities is RM18b.
Does it mean around 20 + 1 - 18 = RM3b of investments may still be subjected to FV impact post IFRS17?

2 months ago

wsb_investor

52 weeks high now, despite a poor market sentiment, thanks to EPF.

2 months ago

wsb_investor

April 2020: 5.32%
Nov 2020: 5.539%
Dec 2021: 6.46%
Sep 2022: 7.25%
~2% increase in holding, total value ~47mil (is relatively nothing if comparing with EPF size)

2 months ago

sheldon

A dividend play as market expecting a high dividend announcement come Jan.

2 months ago

wsb_investor

#AIAGroup (Hong Kong) Update on #IFRS17 Adoption
"...the adoption of these accounting standards does not affect the underlying economics of our business with no material changes expected to the Group’s VONB, embedded value, solvency, capital, cash generation and the established prudent, sustainable and progressive dividend policy.

Operating profit after tax (OPAT) and shareholders’ allocated equity will remain the Group’s key IFRS performance indicators following adoption of the new standards. Our preparation for adoption is on track and we intend to provide a further update on the 2022 full year position in our annual results and the Group’s full restated consolidated financial statements for 2022 in the second quarter of 2023, prior to announcing the 2023 interim results.

For clarity, the adoption of IFRS 17 will resolve a large part of the non-economic accounting mismatch that is created between assets and liabilities in the Group’s consolidated financial statements under IFRS 4. In particular, the adoption of IFRS 9 and 17 will eliminate US$1.4 billion of the US$1.552 billion negative non-economic fair value movements on interest rate derivative financial instruments included within the net profit reported in the 2022 interim results. The Group uses these derivative financial instruments for risk management purposes. "

3 weeks ago

observatory

AIA shareholders' equity, EV and NBV are also resilient against swings in equity prices, interest rate and other volatility. It can be found it page 68-70 of its 2022 interim presentation.
https://www.aia.com/content/dam/group-wise/en/docs/investor-relations/2022/AIA%20Group%201H%202022%20Analyst%20Presentation%20Final.pdf

Its disclosure is top notch. I hope Allianz Malaysia will provide greater disclosure too so that investors have better insight and confidence.

AIA has recently reported growth across all segments in Q3. Specifically for Malaysia, "The strong momentum that returned to AIA Singapore and AIA Malaysia in the second quarter continued through the third quarter with both businesses again delivering double-digit VONB growth. In each market, both our Premier Agency and partnership distribution channels grew VONB, supported by our ongoing investments in TDA. In Singapore, an increase in active agent numbers and a more favourable product mix drove growth, while we delivered excellent results from our exclusive partnership with Public Bank Berhad in Malaysia."

Hope this momentum is also shared by Allianz Malaysia.

3 weeks ago

wsb_investor

Allianz (Global) IFRS17 presentation, similar level of operating profit vs current IFRS. But not very representative, Prudential & AIA (Asia focus, more on protection) IFRS17 presentation will be more representative vs Malaysia business.

2 weeks ago

wsb_investor

AmInvest report: The group’s stronger focus in investment-linked (IL) products with protection riders will put its life insurance business to be less significantly impacted by FRS 17, which will be implemented on 1 Jan 2023.
(wrong statement, IL is positively impacted under IFRS17)

Upon the adoption of FRS 17, the negative revaluation on the group’s life insurance investments, which has dampened the group’s net profit in FY21 and FY22, will no longer have any P&L impact from FY23F
(correct, to some extent)

2 weeks ago

observatory

Despite the economic recovery so far, ALIM has yet to resume its NBV growth.

According to page 3 and 21, for 9M22, "New business value was RM208.4 million, decreased by 1.9% due mainly to lower sales volume from agency business". For comparison, before the pandemic NBV grew at 30% in FY19 and 17% in FY18.

https://www.allianz.com.my/content/dam/onemarketing/azmb/wwwallianzcommy/pdf/investor-updates/2022/2022_Q3_AMB_Analyst_Briefing.pdf

2 weeks ago

observatory

The general insurance business GWP has registered 12.3% growth for 9M22, versus 10.8% for industry and 20.6% for Takaful (page 19). Given AGIC's dominant position in motor insurance, it has likely benefited from the strong recovery in auto sales this year.

However, the general takaful segment is growing much faster. According to Maybank Q3 presentation (page 49), in the combined market, Maybank Etiqa's share has expanded further to 15.5% whereas AGIC merely maintains at 11.1%
https://www.maybank.com/iwov-resources/documents/pdf/quarterly-report/2022/Maybank-3Q-9M-FY2022-Analyst-Presentation.pdf

AGIC will probably return to slower growth mode in 2023 (after benefiting from the low base effect this year). Hopefully by then ALIM NBV growth could recover to its pre-pandemic pace.

2 weeks ago

Papayashot

Hi wsb_investor, quote from you:

Upon the adoption of FRS 17, the negative revaluation on the group’s life insurance investments, which has dampened the group’s net profit in FY21 and FY22, will no longer have any P&L impact from FY23F
(correct, to some extent)

How would the fair value gain/loss being reflected in IFRS17?

2 weeks ago

wsb_investor

NBV cannot compare with 2021 (sales in Q12021 very high because sales in 2020 very low). NBV 9M22 vs 9M19 +25.6%, annualized ~8%.

2 weeks ago

observatory

It's true that the good results of 1Q21 was skewed by lockdowns in 2020. So a YoY comparison with 2022 may not be appropriate.
NBV for 9M22 is RM208.4m.
9M19 figure was not reported in the quarterly presentation then. I worked backward from 3Q20 presentation which mentions "New business value (for 9M20) was RM 165.9 million, declined by 11.8%."
It means NBV for 9M19 = RM165.9m / (1 - 0.118) = RM188.1m.
The increase over a 3-year period, from 9M19 to 9M22 = 208.4/188.1 - 1 = 10.8%. CAGR is 3.5%.
It's fair to say that ALIM business has recovered back to and above pre-pandemic level. But the growth rate has yet to return to the double digit growth of 2018-19.
Of course, the EV at RM3.6b is larger today than 3 years ago.

2 weeks ago

wsb_investor

Slow and steady, 1 year high now, in a poor market sentiment

1 week ago

wsb_investor

1 year ago FBMKLCI 1514, Allianz RM12, today KLCI 1478, Allianz RM13.74, with RM0.79 dividend.

1 week ago

wsb_investor

Zurich Insurance Group AG has emerged as the frontrunner to buy a majority stake in the Malaysian insurance business of US insurer MetLife Inc and Kuala Lumpur-listed AMMB Holdings Bhd, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

A deal could value AmMetLife Insurance Bhd at about US$400 million and would need approval from the Malaysian central bank, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the process is private. Singaporean insurer Great Eastern Holdings Ltd also remains interested in buying the roughly 70% stake, the people said.


Allianz size (from financial statement) is ~3x-4x of AmMetLife, but reputation wise and future new business sales are much more promising vs AmMetLife. 1.7bil MYR * 3 is already higher than Allianz market cap (with GI).

1 day ago

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