Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM) released the new base year for GDP statistics to 2015 from 2010. This is done periodically to incorporate recent economic developments, methodological refinements and new data updates. Following the rebasing exercise, key macro ratios (GDP, fiscal deficit, external debt, current account) were relatively unchanged.

DOSM revised the base year for GDP statistics from 2010 to 2015. Conceptually, rebasing GDP to 2015 base year means that all transactions of goods and services are valued at transaction price paid during 2015. The rebasing exercise takes into account technology changes, consumption patterns, commodity prices that also result in production and spending allocation changes in certain economic sectors. The rebasing exercise also incorporates new data collection methodology and recent data findings. The previous GDP rebase exercise was done in 2015 where the GDP base year was changed from 2005 to 2010. GDP data under the new 2015 base year will be published from 1Q 2019 onwards (1Q 2019 will be released on 16th May 2019).

Nominal GDP value in the new base year of 2015 is 1.6% higher than previously reported (RM1,176,941mn; 2010 base: RM1,158,513mn). This is comparable to Indonesia (+1.3%) but smaller than China (+14.2%) and Singapore (+6.5%). On a constant basis, real GDP value is 10.7% higher than previous reported (RM1,361, 533m; prior: RM1,229,800mn). 

Average real GDP growth (2016-2018) was relatively unchanged (5.0% YoY; 2010 base: 4.9% YoY). Nevertheless, there were some notable changes within the sectors. In supply side, agriculture growth was revised higher to 0.7% YoY (2010 base: 0.4% YoY). This was somewhat offset by lower growth recorded in mining sector (0.02% YoY 2010 base: 0.5% YoY) and manufacturing sector (+5.1% YoY; 2010 base: +5.2% YoY). On the demand side, government consumption recorded slightly faster growth (+3.3% YoY; 2010 base: +3.2% YoY) which was offset by lower private consumption growth (+6.9% YoY; 2010 base: +7.0% YoY) as well as gross fixed capital formation (+3.3% YoY; 2010 base: +3.4% YoY) (Figure 2).

In terms of share of GDP, services and construction sectors rose that offset the drop in commodity and manufacturing sectors. From demand perspective, despite the lower average growth rates recorded for private consumption (6.9%; 2010 base: +7.0% YoY), the magnitude of private consumption revision was larger compared to GDP revision, which led to higher share of GDP. This offset the lower share of exports, imports and government consumption, as percentage of GDP (Figure 2). 2018 key macroeconomic metrics did not deviate significantly from prior metrics:

• Fiscal deficit: 3.69% of GDP; 2010 base: 3.73% of GDP
• Current account balance: 2.32% of GDP; 2010 base: 2.34% of GDP
• External debt: 63.92% of GDP; 2010 base: 64.68% of GDP

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 7 May 2019