Axis’s portfolio has increased by 2 to a total of 50 properties. More than 50% of Axis’s tenants are still operating during MCO; the warehouse logistics are fully operating as well as hypermarkets. Overall, Axis remains relatively stable and defensive amid the Covid-19 outbreak and MCO given their well-diversified portfolio (focusing on industrial properties, with considerable tenants offering essential services). There are 17.7% of total NLA expiring in FY20 and we expect a flattish rental reversion amid Covid 19 outbreak and MCO. We expect a better FY20 due to full year contribution from acquisition in FY19 as well as new contribution from newly acquired properties. We increase our earnings slightly by 0.4% for FY20 and 0.5% for FY21-22 to reflect contribution from newly acquired properties. We maintain BUY with marginally higher TP of RM2.47 (from TP: RM2.46).

We organized a conference call with management; the following are some of the key takeaways.

Portfolio. Portfolio size increased by 2 to a total of 50 properties. The 2 additional properties came from completed acquisition in Bukit Raja (from Lion Steelworks Sdn. Bhd.) on 17th Mar 2020 and acquisition in Kawasan Perindustrian Nilai II (from K Plastics Industries Sdn. Bhd.) on 28th Feb 2020.

Some tenants still operating during MCO. More than 50% of Axis’s tenants are still operating during the Movement Control Order (MCO); the warehouse logistics are fully operating as well as hypermarkets. Besides, 20% of manufacturing facilities are also still in operations (see Figure #1 for portfolio breakdown). Overall, Axis remains relatively more stable and defensive amid the Covid-19 outbreak and MCO given their well-diversified portfolio (focusing on industrial properties, with considerable tenants offering essential services). Furthermore, there are 150 tenants (out of 154 tenants) that do not have a force majeure clause; hence, Covid-19 and MCO should not have material impact to Axis’ bottom-line. Management shared that the most they can do as landlords to help their tenants is potential rental deferment. In any case, Axis believes that they are able to collect any outstanding rental before August’s dividend payout. As consequence, there is unlikely to be an impact for unitholders during this time.

Flattish rental reversion is expected. There are 17.7% of total net lettable areas (NLA) of portfolio are expiring in FY20 (See Figure #3). Management expects that it will be a flattish rental reversion this year amid Covid-19 and MCO. To compare with FY19, 22.4% of total NLA expired and Axis managed to successfully secured 96% leases with 2% positive rental reversion. As for retention, this should not be an issue as tenants are likely to maintain status quo and keep operations at the same location.

Dividend distribution to remain as usual. Management assured that they will maintain their dividend distribution policy of a least 95% of dividend payout ratio for 1st

to 3rd quarter while at least 99% of payout ratio for 4th quarter. This is in line with REIT policy of distribution of earnings of more than 95% to enjoy tax-free benefits.

Pipeline assets. There are 2 more pipeline assets from FY19 that have not been acquired yet (targeting to do so by 1H20): (i) 1 manufacturing facility in Shah Alam, Selangor (c.RM56m) and (ii) 1 manufacturing facility in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah (c. RM60m). Besides, Axis REIT is evaluating other assets to acquire, with an estimated total value of RM135m. Their acquisition plan is still ongoing amidst MCO but may be delayed as they cannot go onsite to do due diligence.

Outlook. We expect a better FY20 due to full year contribution from acquisition in FY19 as well as new contribution from newly acquired properties (acquisition of Bukit Raja and Kawasan Perindustian Nilai II), coupled with (hopefully) a post Covid-19 recovery. Axis REIT is still actively pursuing quality acquisitions with focus on Grade A logistics and manufacturing facilities as prime focus.

Forecast. We increase earnings marginally by 0.4% for FY20 and 0.5% for FY21-22 to reflect contribution from newly acquired properties of Bukit Raja and Kawasan Perindustian Nilai II.

Maintain BUY, TP: RM2.47. We maintain BUY with marginally higher TP of RM2.47 (from TP: RM2.46) to reflect contribution of newly acquired properties. To note, our valuation is derived from 1SD below 2-year historical average yield spread between Axis REIT and 10-year MGS yield in view of increased popularity in industrial properties, high occupant tenancy in its diversified portfolio and is also one of the few Shariah compliant REITs.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 14 Apr 2020