CSC Steel got off to a weak start in 1QFY12 as its net profit of RM5.6m fell below our and consensus estimates. This could have been due to sluggish demand, a struggling global economy and the persistent unfavorable spread between Hot and Cold Rolled Coils. Being cautious on the near term outlook, we are revising lower our FY12 and FY13 earnings forecasts, as well as our valuation parameters. We derive a new FV of RM1.33 based on 0.64x FY12 BV, and downgrade CSC Steel to a NEUTRAL.
Weak despite returning to the black. Although CSC Steel returned to the black in 1QFY12 with net profit of RM5.6m (+>100% q-o-q, -76.9% y-o-y), its numbers still indicate a very weak start as they were way below our and consensus estimates. The weak results can again be attributed to the continuing sluggishness in steel demand. We had earlier anticipated a short term spike in steel prices but it turned out that the momentum was not that impressive. A quick look at the international Hot Rolled Coils (HRC) and Cold Rolled Coils (CRC) prices showed us that the margin between CRCHRC remained slim, and thus continued to erode CSC Steel's bottomline.
Not so hot in the near term. We believe that CSC Steel will still face challenges in the near term, at least in the upcoming 2QFY12, as market sentiment remains weak. Domestically, the company is still experiencing inconsistent raw materials supply while globally, the slowdown in China's economic growth and the protracted European debt crisis are likely to adversely affect buying sentiment. Overall, we are cautious on CSC Steel's performance, which prompts us to revise our FY12 and FY13 earnings forecasts downwards by 14.9% and 9.9% respectively.
Downgrade to NEUTRAL.We had earlier pegged the counter's valuation based on book value so as to better reflect its financial strength. However, amidst the ongoing challenges in the steel sector and the feeble global economy, we are revising our valuation parameter lower to a -0.5 standard deviation of its 5-year PBV trading band (previously at mean), from which we derive a FV of RM1.33 based on 0.64x FY12 BV. Despite the hurdles to earnings, CSC Steel possesses a large cash pile of RM224.4m on its balance sheet, which will allow it to honour its dividend payout mandate of 50%. With that, we are downgrading CSC Steel only to NEUTRAL, and will revisit the counter when the market environment improves.