Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 3 June 2014

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Publish date: Tue, 03 Jun 2014, 09:31 AM

Asia

Thai Army Prepares Emergency Economic Measures. The military junta running Thailand has drawn up a list of emergency measures such as price caps on fuel and loan guarantees for small firms to kick-start an economy threatened by recession after months of political turmoil. The plans, outlined by Air Chief Marshal Prajin Juntong late on Sunday after a meeting with officials at economic ministries, take in longer-term measures such as the development of special economic zones on the borders with Myanmar, Laos and Malaysia. (Reuters)

Thai Inflation At 14-Month High. Thailand’s headline inflation rate accelerated to a 14-month high in May on higher food and energy prices, according to government data, posing an additional headache for policymakers facing a cooling economy and fears of growing public unrest. The headline consumer price index rose 2.62% in May from a year earlier, the Commerce Ministry said. That compared with the median forecast in a poll for a 2.59% rise and followed a 2.45% increase in April. The core inflation rate quickened to 1.75% year-on-year in May, from 1.66% in April. (Reuters)

Indonesia Posts Trade Deficit On Lower April Exports. Indonesia’s exports in April surprisingly weakened, tipping the country’s trade balance into its largest deficit in nine months and renewing stress on the fragile rupiah. Recent signs of stability in the country’s current account deficit and moderating inflation had helped to revive investor confidence ahead of presidential elections in July. Indonesia’s trade balance slipped to a US$1.97bil deficit in April, government data showed yesterday, after two straight months of surpluses, and confounding analysts’ expectations for a US$220mil surplus. The trade deficit was larger in July last year when it was US$2.3bil. (Reuters)

India Manufacturing Output Hits 3-Month High. Indian manufacturing orders hit a three-month high in May, suggesting stronger output in the coming months, as overall factory output growth picked up pace slightly, a business survey showed Monday. The HSBC PMI showed new orders, an important forward-looking indicator, jumped a full point to 53.2 from 52.5 in April while overall manufacturing output edged up to 51.4 in May from 51.3 in April. A reading over 50 points to expansion. (Reuters)

S. Korea May Pmi Falls To 9-Month Low. South Korea's manufacturing activity fell to a nine-month low in May as new export orders shrank, a private-sector survey showed on Monday, adding to signs of a softening recovery in Asia's fourthlargest economy. The HSBC/Markit purchasing managers' index (PMI) of South Korea's manufacturing sector slid to a seasonally adjusted 49.5 in May from 50.2 in April, Markit Economics said in a statement. The May reading was the lowest since 47.5 in August 2013. A reading below 50 means activity shrank during the month. The index was just above 50 in March and April. (Reuters)

USA

Factory Data Points At Second-Quarter Growth Pick Up. U.S. manufacturing activity accelerated in May and construction spending rose for a third straight month in April, suggesting economic growth was regaining steam in the second quarter. The Institute for Supply Management said on Monday its index of national factory activity increased to 55.4 in May from 54.9 in April. The ISM had earlier mistakenly reported the index fell to 53.2 in May. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. The firmer manufacturing tone was corroborated by a separate report from financial data firm Markit. Markit said its final U.S. manufacturing Purchasing Mangers Index rose to 56.4 last month from 55.4 in April. (Reuters)

U.S. Construction Spending At Five-Year High. U.S. construction spending rose to its highest level in five years in April, but the increase was less than expected, suggesting a mild pick-up after residential and nonresidential construction contracted in the first quarter. Construction spending increased 0.2 % to an annual rate of $953.5 billion, the Commerce Department said on Monday. That was the highest level since March 2009. While the increase was less than economists' expectations for a 0.6 % gain, March's construction spending was revised to show a 0.6 % rise instead of the previously reported 0.2 % advance. (Reuters)

Europe

UK Manufacturing Recovery Continues In May. UK factory output is continuing to enjoy one of its strongest growth periods for 22 years, a survey has suggested. Manufacturers raised production in May to meet strong demand, according to research firm Markit. Growth continued at almost the same rate seen in April, matching economists' expectations. The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged down slightly in May to 57.0 from 57.3. However, growth stayed well ahead of a reading of 50, the dividing line between growth and contraction, after strong demand from domestic and export markets. (BBC)

Eurozone Manufacturing Slows To Six-Month Low In May. Manufacturing growth in the eurozone slowed to a six-month low in May, according to a closely-watched survey. The final Markit's Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dipped to 52.2 in May, down from 53.4 in April. A figure above 50 indicates expansion. Output growth in all nations, when it meets on Thursday. (BBC)

Currencies

Dollar Up; This Week Could Be ‘Trigger Point’. The dollar rose against the euro Monday as disappointing German inflation data were the latest to signal the European Central Bank could be forced to ease monetary policy this week to fight low inflation. The euro fell to $1.3598 from $1.3635 late Friday. The ICE dollar index, which pits the greenback against six other currencies, rose to 80.634 from 80.379 late Friday. The British pound inched down to $1.6747 from $1.6762 late Friday. The Australian dollar dropped to 92.46 U.S. cents from 93.11 U.S. cents late Friday. The dollar rose to 102.38 yen from ¥101.77. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Brent, U.S. Crude Slip On Dollar Strength, Ample Supply. Brent and U.S. crude oil futures fell in choppy trading on Monday, weighed on by a stronger dollar and recent data showing rising OPEC oil production. Brent July crude fell 58 cents to settle at $108.83 a barrel, after hitting $109.87 and then pulling back below Brent's 200-day moving average at $109.07. U.S. July crude, also known by its West Texas Intermediate benchmark, fell 24 cents to settle at $102.47 a barrel, ending lower after touching $103.35 intraday. (Reuters)

Gold Hits 4-Month Low, Longest Losing Streak In 7 Months. Gold fell for a fifth session on Monday, its longest losing streak in seven months, as rising stock markets diverted interest from bullion, and ahead of the latest European Central Bank policy meeting and key U.S. data this week. Spot gold was down 0.3 % at $1,247.20 an ounce at 1355 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for August delivery were up $1.40 an ounce at $1,247.40. Among other precious metals, silver was up 0.6% at $18.80 an ounce, recovering from Friday's 11-month low at $18.60. Spot platinum was down 0.8 % at $1,433.50 an ounce, while spot palladium was down 0.2 % at $831 an ounce. (Reuters)

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2014-06-03 10:57

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