● Exports’YoY growthjumpedto a 134-month high in April (51.94%; consensus: 41.0%; Mar: 30.5%) above market expectations

- MoM: edged up by 0.7% (Mar: 20.3%) to USD18.5b, highest export value since Aug 2011.

● The higher export growth was attributable to a sharp expansion in non-O&G and O&G-based products as well as higher shipment to major trading partners as well as base effects

- Non-O&G (51.1%; Mar: 30.1%): growth led by higher exports of manufacturing (52.6%; Mar: 33.4%), followed by mining (47.0%; Mar: 11.9%) and agriculture (19.4%; Mar: 25.6%) products. By destination, exports of non-O&G to top trading partners registered a continued expansion, led by China (77.9%; Mar: 88.1%), followed by the US (56.7%; Mar: 32.2%) and Japan (26.9%; Mar: 20.8%).

- O&G (69.6%; Mar: 39.0%): fastest expansion since September 2011, driven by higher O&G mining (85.5%; Mar: 34.8%) products though partially capped by a growth contraction in O&G manufacturing (-10.2%; Mar: 62.2%) products.

● Imports expanded for the third straight month and accelerated to a 33-month high (29.9%; consensus: 29.8%; Mar: 25.7%) on low base effect and a growth spike up in O&G (136.8%; Mar: 41.9%)

- By segment, the growth was attributable to higher import of raw materials (33.2%; Mar: 25.8%), followed by consumer goods (34.1%; Mar: 16.1%) and capital goods (11.6%; Mar: 33.7).

- MoM: fell moderately (-3.0%; Mar: 26.6%) to USD16.3b.

● Trade surplus widened toUSD2.19b (Mar: USD1.57b), thehighest in five months and substantially higher than market expectation (consensus: USD1.0b). Meanwhile, total trade expanded sharply to a 45-month high (40.8% YoY; Mar: 28.2%) as trade activities improved amid global economic recovery.

● 2021 export growth projection remained at 15.1% (2020: -2.6%) in anticipation of growth recovery among key trading partners

- Base effect and higher commodity prices are expected to support Indonesia’s exports in the near term despite fears of COVID- 19 resurgence. This will be bolstered by wider vaccine rollout and growth recovery among key trading partners.

Source: Kenanga Research - 21 May 2021