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[转帖] 产业股将面对挑战,进来看看 - jim yuet

Tan KW
Publish date: Fri, 03 Oct 2014, 09:19 PM
Tan KW
0 502,968
Good.

 

2014年10月3日星期五 

 

先向大家道歉,uncle因为私人理由忙了5天,忙得完全没时间update各位,请大家见谅。

uncle jim觉得产业股将在未来面对挑战是因为最近时常看到产业股的老总喊话,大家一起呼吁政府的举动确实不畅见~

uncle收集的如下:

1)马星集团(MAHSING,8583,主板产业股)董事经理暨总执行长丹斯里梁海金希望政府让售价低于100万令吉的住宅产业,从“豁免消费税”(Exempted)转为“零税率消费税”(Zero Rated)。他也期望政府能够在来临的财政预算案中,重新推行发展商利息承担计划(简称DIBS)

2)置地通用(L&G,3174,主板产业股)董事經理劉毅德表示,我們發現很多想買第一間房子的人,他們有穩定的收入,但還是有很多人很難付得起首期。政府可以考慮再提高第一間房子的貸款上限,或是批准買家直接從每月公積金扣款中抽一部份來還房貸。

3)麗陽機構(TROP,5401,主要板房產)董事羅碧媚籲政府在2015年財政預算案宣布,讓房產業者重新推出發展商承擔利息計劃(DIBS)。

从他们的“呼吁”不难发现其实市场已经难以消化他们所建造的房产,说到底,他们的呼吁不外是要求“流动资金”,要求政府放宽贷款条件,重启DIBS, 甚至把橄榄枝伸向大众的EPF。

那么为什么市场会缺乏资金呢?因为大马私人家庭在2008年,向銀行貸款額約1030億歐元(約4269億令吉),當時占國內生產總值的60.4%截至2013年底,貸款數額高漲至超過1890億歐元(約7833億令吉),占國內生產總值約87% 就是说,要借钱买房子的人,都已经借了,这几年的房产牛市已经把市场上的资金用的7788,那么接下来谁有钱买房子呢?难道用cash买吗?

实情是,资金被你们榨干了~ 产业老总还希望把你的EPF一起赚取~ 也希望政府同流合污~ 

不幸的是,接下来如果美国升息,大马就会被逼着升息,市场的流动资金更少~

老实说,这几年产业股表现得很标清,但是盲目的希望接下来产业股会继续表现良好是不智的,看到很多股友都在追高产业股,难道你真的以为你选择的“优良公司”真的可以逆势而上?我只是想说,你有其他选择。

http://www.malaysiareit.com/2014/10/blog-post.html

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7 people like this. Showing 18 of 18 comments

GoldenShares

GOOD !

2014-10-03 22:22

anthonylow

完全同意, 所以我一路来不买产业股。

2014-10-03 22:41

CoMBoFisT

都是钱在做怪~~发展商过去几十年都赚过了吧。

2014-10-04 00:22

Steven Yong

I have told all to avoid property earlier, expect some exceptional like gsb, take care

2014-10-04 00:57

Surelaughdie

oh yes, now we know u hold a lot of gsb..

no fun guessing.

2014-10-04 01:00

Bodohjim

My view is exactly opposite yours. You clearly have no ideas whatsoever how the economy works, or simply put in this way, how the world works. If you were a developer, would you lower down the properties prices just because you have unsold units? Launched price RM 1million for a superlink freehold villa in KL, would you sell at RM700k just because there is no demand? Some economic theories only work best under the perfect world. DEVELOPERS are cash rich. In the property world, it belongs to the cash rich investors, cash rich developers. Developers will find ways to market their products, BUT WILL NEVER LOWER DOWN properties prices just because they have unsold units. The world belongs to those who have holding power. If malaysia were a tax free country like Brunei, you will be surprised how many Malaysians will use cash to buy properties. Have you seen Hermes, LV prices going down or up years after years. By reading a few comments from the developers how could you conveniently concluded your findings? The smart bosses just finding ways to sell their products by urging the government to help. Simple as that. Welcome to the real business world! Developers already paying high prices for acquisition of lands, you want lowered property prices by developers? Highly unlikely!

2014-10-04 01:28

Surelaughdie

he is correct!


Posted by Bodohjim > Oct 4, 2014 01:28 AM | Report Abuse

My view is exactly opposite yours. You clearly have no ideas whatsoever how the economy works, or simply put in this way, how the world works. If you were a developer, would you lower down the properties prices just because you have unsold units? Launched price RM 1million for a superlink freehold villa in KL, would you sell at RM700k just because there is no demand? Some economic theories only work best under the perfect world. DEVELOPERS are cash rich. In the property world, it belongs to the cash rich investors, cash rich developers. Developers will find ways to market their products, BUT WILL NEVER LOWER DOWN properties prices just because they have unsold units. The world belongs to those who have holding power. If malaysia were a tax free country like Brunei, you will be surprised how many Malaysians will use cash to buy properties. Have you seen Hermes, LV prices going down or up years after years. By reading a few comments from the developers how could you conveniently concluded your findings? The smart bosses just finding ways to sell their products by urging the government to help. Simple as that. Welcome to the real business world! Developers already paying high prices for acquisition of lands, you want lowered property prices by developers? Highly unlikely!

2014-10-04 01:29

Surelaughdie

when property price is depress, developer stop all launching, only the secondary mkt melt, developer busy buying land to replenish stock.

newbies donno anything dont simply talk like otb or chinesetea or saturn ok??

2014-10-04 01:30

chipekteh

Looks like Bodohjim is cleverer than smart uncle Jim! Perhaps bodohjim is cash rich and smart uncle Jim is not.

2014-10-04 02:34

bsngpg

B-Jim 活在人间。Jim-Y 有理想。

2014-10-04 07:47

JT Yeo

@bodohjim I dont see why it is not possible for developers to drop price. You are talking about cash rich developers, in that case yes, dropping price is the final option.

But if there is a develop that has high gearing and low in cash, if he is desperate to have cash to pay for interest expense, dropping price is what he will do, just like small developers in China.

2014-10-04 09:33

bsngpg

Housing development is kind of biz with high capital, high risk, high revenue but only reasonable return. If we take Mahsing as an example, we will realize that they are just earning very reasonable margin which is about 15% and less. Mahsing is a good example as its cost of land is very close to market value as the land was acquired and developed/turned into revenue in short time. We should not take those companies with land acquired many years ago at much lower than market price and giving us false numbers that housing development delivers huge margin.

2014-10-04 13:14

bsngpg

"资金被你们榨干了 …......."
Why do not accuse banking industry which is relatively very safe but commanding very high margin.

2014-10-04 13:17

bsngpg

“标清….… 盲目的希望……追高…….以为逆势而上……..”

This should not limit to property counters only; in fact the phenomenon applies to the broad market. Please do not pick property counters as scapegoat.

2014-10-04 13:30

sien

这篇东西有说到发展商会降低价格出售吗?(关于bodohjim的论点)不是只是想重推dibs和动用epf的钱来买罢了吗?

2014-10-05 14:06

limko1

Developers won't lower price to clear stock? Not true! I&P offered to clear their stocks of semi-de in Kinrara and condo in Jln Ampang in 2005/06, although not a lot but still a discount.

2014-10-05 14:31

kkng0819kk

Gaji naik sikit tapi harga naik cepat,mana ada wang lagi untuk beli rumah?Mesti ada sakit di sini sana di dim sistem ekonomi kita

2014-10-05 17:40

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