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[转贴] 油价与油气股是否已跌到底? - nifong

Tan KW
Publish date: Sun, 24 Jan 2016, 08:36 AM
Tan KW
0 502,968
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Saturday, January 23, 2016 

 
最近,许多人对油气股很感兴趣,想捞底。

在昨天刚结束的研习营上,因为时间有限,我不能好好完整的回答其中一个出席者的提问。只好在这里稍微作补充,希望有缘者能看到。

油气股之所以被人关注,主要的原因就是油气股在这一年多来已下跌了许多,下到令不少人流口水的价位。

油气股是否已跌到底,主要取决于国际油价。要是油价还会继续下跌,油气股的股价当然还会跌。要是国际油价不再大跌,甚至回升,那么油气股的冬天就算结束,春天也就快来临。

讲来讲去,还是讲油价---谁不知道油气股和油价的关系,人家就是不知道油价是否已到底嘛。

好了,先别发牢骚,回到正题。油价与油气股是否已到底?

老实说,我不知道,你们当中99%的人应该也不知道(废话,不知道还要说)。

不过,这里我告诉你一个偏方。

宇宙的知识是无穷尽的。每一个人都不可能懂得所有的东西。那么要怎么办?答案就是杠杆。我们可以杠杆他人的知识。

如何杠杆他人的知识,知道油价与油气股是否已到底呢?方法就是看看和油气股有关的股票。

这里我们就举一个例子---Coatal. Coatal是油气股之一,一起来看看coastal的图表。

从第一个月线图的图表中,我们可以看到Coastal的股价已经从2014年8 月最高的5.40一直下跌到不久前最低的1.44,跌幅达73%(之前追高买股的人,看看你们是否已得到了教训)。目前该股的MACD, Stochastic与RSI都已处于低位。这表示coastal 的股价已经来到了低位,离开底部不远了。简单的说,油价与油气股已处于黑暗的熊市,接下来该是等待与迎接牛市黎明时光的到来。

什么时候油价与油气股会到回牛市呢?就是当MACD与Stochastic的指标都处于交叉反转向上的时候。

现在我们来看看coastal股的 日线图。

从coastal下跌的股价趋势线,我们不难发现该股的股价一波比一波低。从最后两次的低点来看(去年8月的1.61与今年1月的1.44),coastal的交易量都有增加的趋势。这表示有人认为油价已够低了,趁低买进。

这些趁低买进的人,他们的看法正确吗?是否可信赖?只要我们密切关注该股接下来 的股价走势,未来股价将会告诉我们。要是交易量在足够大后萎缩,股价还能站稳在之前交易量少时的价位之上,那么就表示油价的最黑暗时期已过去了。要是股价 不能站稳在之前交易量少时的之上,那就表示油价的牛市还没到来,还需耐心地等待。

这就是我要说的,通过图表的走势来观测与杠杆他人的专业知识。


 

http://nifong.blogspot.my/2016/01/blog-post_23.html

Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 29 of 29 comments

Vc Looi

油價是否探底是個問題,但是另一個問題卻鮮少人問就是要在底部多久?

2016-01-24 08:58

davidkkw79

技术分析就技术分析,与杠杆有什么关系?

2016-01-24 09:41

Tom

只要原油存库持续上升,全球供应大过需求。。。。MACD与Stochastic的指标都是在放屁。。。。

2016-01-24 11:44

Ntpboon

“油气股是否已跌到底,主要取决于国际油价。”
请问国际油价是由谁制定?

2016-01-24 11:53

orlandooil

I think d oil stored by China Japan n others can satisfy their consumption
for 2 to 3 years even if ths countries stopped importing for a long time so how can d prices go up?

2016-01-24 16:03

gray

China has no place to store oil even if oil is given free. The oil is even stored in oil tanker floating in sea.
When oil price recover. They may want to sell it to stop paying storage fee.

Under this kind of scenerio. To claim oil is bottom is as good as pointing to an egg to say its a chicken.

2016-01-24 16:09

gray

Oil at 30. Everyone says its too cheap. In the yr 2000. Oil has been hoveri g at usd 10. Nobody i knew said its cheap.

2016-01-24 16:11

orlandooil

China certainly have storage space for oil and not necessarily in China but in other countries

China may jz buy local Shell Refinery n turn it into storage space

2016-01-24 16:13

gray

China has been buying oil at 60. Which they now realised it has been a mistake n foolish act. They assume oil would quick rebound.
In many places. Oil are sold in black mkt at 15 a barrel.

2016-01-24 16:17

gray

Personally i feel oil wil b below 20 in yrs to come. Endless skl shouting oil wil rebound since 80. Only to see it 26. Everytime it stage a tech rebound. The same group of shameless skl jump out to proclaim oil has bottom.
A true bottom wil only b found when those skl turn bearish on every tech rebound.

As long as oil is below 60. What u see r mostly tech rebound with huge hedge fund moving up n down short term price.

2016-01-24 16:23

Koon Bee

My prediction will fall below 10

2016-01-24 16:25

Koon Bee

70% of our o&g company will bankrupt

2016-01-24 16:26

gray

Why would petronas want to cut 10% staff if they think oil has bottom?
You mean ppl in the street n i3 sifu know more abt oil mkt than petronas?

2016-01-24 16:28

Koon Bee

My friend working in o&g company stay at home without any contract since september 2015

2016-01-24 16:28

Koon Bee

Previously my friend earning usd 15k to 25k a month...now 6 month sit at home with less than rm3k allowance a month...and he will receive a terminate of appointment letter anytime

2016-01-24 16:31

tengkuleesal

BSN freezes all loans to O&G staffs....they must have very good reasons to take such an action!!

2016-01-24 16:33

Koon Bee

Yes..not only BSN..i believe other bank do the same but keep as internal policy not like bsn do annoucement to public

2016-01-24 16:34

gray

Banks has frozen loan to o&g staff. Irregardless of company. They knew the oil ind is going for prolong consolidation.
So what if oil return to 60.
Petronas is still struggling to break even while others depend on petronas would b dead.

The deadly oil n gas corp finance that assume oil price forever 100 is the killer. Almost irreversible.

2016-01-24 16:35

gray

If i remember correctly. 2 months ago petronas said no retrenchment. 4 months ago yhey said committed to all capex.

They must have knew something big wok to suddely make a reversal in policy.

2016-01-24 16:38

gray

I m sure when oil recover another few days many will come here attack say wrong prediction bla bla.
You have been told its not a 1 or 2 weeks prediction but longterm prediction.

2016-01-24 16:41

tengkuleesal

ever wonder why WB is accumulating oil refiner Philip now if oil is really bottoming out?....knowing that oil going up wont be good for refining business! So,I suppose WB is expecting oil price to drop further...

2016-01-24 16:48

gray

U r rite. If he think oil has bottom he would buy oil diggers.

2016-01-24 16:50

gray

World has not officially entered recession how can u see oil bottom? Such simple logic an apes also can reason out. Why cant human???

2016-01-24 16:54

F22Raptor

Post removed.Why?

2016-01-24 17:04

goreng_kaki

oil price bounced back to 32 usd already

2016-01-24 20:04

PlsGiveBonus

Oil shorter bleeding hard all the way to the bank

2016-01-24 20:06

Ahbeng Beng

矛盾,明明说没有人会懂未来油价,然后说杠杆他人知识。。。难道他人就懂油价?如果他人不懂,那么杠杆出来的知识就是屁。看看就知道是看图说故事,如果油价低得久,你看的那几家公司就会倒闭。现在只是对低油价consolidate, 市场还是认为会很快反弹。如果油价没有足够反弹,你就是追高买股,准备得到教训。

2016-01-25 18:45

Ahbeng Beng

要懂油价不是没有方法, 你需要懂中东人尤其是沙地人的心理,和中东回教不同教派之间的博弈。油价几时会反弹,要看你读对方的心理多准确,读读这篇文章,让你懂懂油价是什么回事。 http://seekingalpha.com/article/3821096-hello-name-saudi-arabia-care

2016-01-25 18:50

VenFx

CASH FLOW THAT DECIDE who will stand untill the storm passed.

2016-01-25 19:07

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