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[转贴] 楊應超：中國誤判情勢 美中貿易戰會越打越嚴重
華為公主意外在加被捕，又以2.3億元交保獲釋、高通在大陸取得蘋果舊機禁售令、加拿大前外交官在陸被捕，接二連三的政經事件，不僅讓美中關係緊繃，在夾縫中求生存的台廠及台股，更有如洗三溫暖一樣，苦不堪言。
這場美中貿易混戰後續走勢會如何？異康集團暨青興資本首席顧問楊應超直言，中國誤判情勢，美國後手仍多，預期美中貿易戰會越打越嚴重。
楊應超建議，台廠短期要「保守以對」，長期一定要分散市場及客戶，「雞蛋不能放在一個籃子」。以下為楊應超接受記者越洋訪問摘要：
問：華為公主被逮及高通取得蘋果舊機的陸禁售令，兩案對台廠影響性為何？
答：這兩案明顯是「以牙還牙」，美中貿易戰將越打越嚴重，初時以為美中之間是貿易赤字問題，現在已延伸至專利權等智財權，最近更升高至國家安全，嚴重性大增。
現在坊間謠傳的陰謀論很多，在美國有錢、有資產的人，都會擔心，甚至連普通美國人都已注意此事，已非單純的經濟議題。
從經濟角度來看，華為與中興案很相似，對相關零件及組裝廠不利，但對競爭者有利，蘋果案也是如此，美中打起來，對台廠最不利，但三星、Google最有利，可惜宏達電已經弱化，在此場混戰中，分不到一杯羹。
問：美中貿易戰已經從貿易逆差、智慧財產、關稅加課、科技標準，延伸到法律及國安大戰，這場混戰會如何發展？
答：升高至國安層級，可能會兩敗俱傷，我預期，美國人絕對不會退讓，大陸人可能有義和團想法，但民族意識在美是不堪一擊，中國目前內部還以為是貿易戰，比錢，中國人錢多的很。
可是從中興案已知，問題在「技術」，CPU如果被美扣住，大部分是英特爾及AMD製造，Android、iOS扣住，手機都不用滑了，中國一定會玩完了，華為知道，技術和美國之間差距很大，但中國的政治人物不懂，自認為強國有錢，實際上，中國在技術上其實差很多，由此可知，基礎要打好，以井觀天是不行的。
美國對付中國，手法與先前對付日本如出一轍。中國此次錯判形勢，又要面子，預期中國有檯階下，就會順勢下來，與美國「大街吵架、小巷道歉」。
問：台灣供應鏈不管是蘋果、華為都逃不掉，現在是要怎麼應變？
答:「雞蛋不能放在一個籃子」，賺錢之前，要學會先賠錢，做好風險管理，長期是分散市場及客戶，短期就要「保守以對」。
美中貿易大戰後，經濟成長趨緩，可以看見很多東西供過於求，在美國就可以發現牛排非常便宜，就像DRAM，生產太多了，且牛肉出口減少，雞豬都太便宜，iPhone也減價，美國物價下跌，升息也減速，川普不怕經濟衰退，他的本夠厚，預期對中國可以施的招數還很多。
異康集團暨青興資本首席顧問楊應超 報系資料照
https://udn.com/news/story/12639/3534358
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Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 40 of 40 comments
china is still at least 3 generations behind us in terms of chip and flash.
so how to win????
lol...........
Posted by freddiehero > Dec 14, 2018 08:52 PM | Report Abuse
china can do 5g
2018-12-14 20:54
but we all know that u dont know ur basic tech well, just from ur lack of analysis.
the most important in 5g r the chips in the networking gears.
huawei is still heavily dependent on intel/nxp chips.
lol...........
Posted by freddiehero > Dec 14, 2018 08:58 PM | Report Abuse
u dono china well
2018-12-14 21:03
u think the japanese r willing to sell their most essential tech to a foreigner????
Posted by freddiehero > Dec 14, 2018 09:10 PM | Report Abuse
got thosiba tech. tat all no enof?
2018-12-14 21:11
toshiba is still controlling their chip plant, u better go read on the restructuring.
there r no chinese or taiwanese interests in the consortium.
Posted by freddiehero > Dec 14, 2018 09:14 PM | Report Abuse
u dono they all done? all done.
2018-12-14 21:17
however, china has a very strong talent pool in uni science and tech.
i m sure given time, they will be able to narrow the gap to 1 generation.
but to take the lead, it will be another story.
Posted by freddiehero > Dec 14, 2018 09:18 PM | Report Abuse
haha.. good luck for china
2018-12-14 21:20
i wouldnt be surprised if theres an unofficial chip embargo on the next most advance chip.
Posted by i3lurker > Dec 14, 2018 09:20 PM | Report Abuse
You are correct !!!
so smart.............
Confirmed Hua Wei has just frozen all their 5G phone divisions. Fear of unable to buy chips from US. This news is limited release only.
Posted by joetay2 > Dec 14, 2018 09:03 PM | Report Abuse
but we all know that u dont know ur basic tech well, just from ur lack of analysis.
the most important in 5g r the chips in the networking gears.
huawei is still heavily dependent on intel/nxp chips.
lol...........
2018-12-14 21:22
Don’t be cunning if you not even know what is the real situation dont talk like an expert, what you mean by 1 generation ? 10 years or 50 years ?
2018-12-14 23:44
Huawei case can be classified as a kidnap case, an act of terrorism.....
imagine, if it had been the other way round!!!!
2018-12-14 23:57
Can’t even give answer on ur own statement? 1 generation ? China only opening up last generation and its archived what western need to do for last decade.
2018-12-15 07:28
China using outdated guns also can defeat US machine guns during last Korean War..Btw educated man won’t debate with his penis
2018-12-15 07:35
Western era will come to an end.. nothing lasts forever. Eastern oriental is the rising sun.
2018-12-15 08:51
hahaha. joetay, every way you go, you are cursing ppl. now everyone say you are an idiot and Gila, i fully agreed that, soon karma will hit you hard. better behave yourself before any disaster coming to you.
2018-12-16 04:49
but 4mth old, we alrdy confirm that u r heading for bankruptcy proceedings in the new yr.
do u want me to intro u my corp lawyer????
btw, how much u lost on boustead plantation and jcy????
lol..........
Posted by Yippy68 > Dec 16, 2018 04:49 AM | Report Abuse
hahaha. joetay, every way you go, you are cursing ppl. now everyone say you are an idiot and Gila, i fully agreed that, soon karma will hit you hard. better behave yourself before any disaster coming to you.
2018-12-17 23:00
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