• Keep BUY, with new MYR1.44 TP from MYR1.50, 49% upside. Texchem Resources’ FY23 results missed expectations on slower-than-expected recovery. That said, following a lacklustre share price performance (-56%) in FY23 due to weak results and margins compression, TEX could be a laggard play into FY24 that is poised to benefit from volume recovery, particularly from industrial and polymer engineering divisions. The current depressed valuation offers a good entry into the diverse businesses, coupled with solid balance sheet and strong cash flow generation.

• Missed expectations. TEX recorded FY23 core losses of MYR10.4m (vs MYR30.8m profit in FY22) after adjustments for an employee stock option scheme expense and gain on disposal of investment in associate. The disappointment came from weaker-than-expected sales and margins, and high effective tax rate – from the non-availability of tax relief from losses incurred by certain subsidiaries and under-provision from the prior period.

• Results review. YoY, FY23 revenue dipped 13.1% due to weaker market demand from the industrial and polymer engineering divisions, while its restaurant divisions were impacted by weaker consumer sentiment. FY23 EBITDA margin contracted 3.1ppts to 7% on the loss of economies of scale and higher input and operating costs. QoQ, 4Q23 revenue were flattish, with recovery in polymer engineering division offset by weakness seen in the restaurant division. Due to higher operating costs, the company achieved 4Q23 core losses of MYR3.2m (vs MYR2.1m in 3Q23).

• Outlook. We expect encouraging recovery momentum among semiconductor customers, while the medical life science customers continue to grow steadily as per guided. The execution of new high margin business since 4Q23 is expected to contribute positively into FY24. In the industrial division, the chemical prices have begun to reverse, which should lead to improved demand as customers deplete their on-hand inventory. On the other hand, expectations of contained inflation and a review of employees’ salary schemes could improve consumer sentiment, benefitting the restaurant division in FY24 while competition on retail F&B scene and cost input pressure remains. However, the food division may continue to face challenges due to FX control measures in Myanmar. Management has put up contingency plans to stimulate local demand for its products while slowly diversify its supply chain away from Myanmar to mitigate the impact. All in, we look forward to a profitable FY24 year for TEX.

• Forecast and valuations. We maintain our FY24-25 forecast in view of a stronger FY24 outlook and guidance, and introduce FY26F earnings (+25%). We also take the opportunity to revise our ESG score to 3.0 from 3.2, given the lack of disclosure on emissions. Our SOP-derived TP is lowered to MYR1.44 (after applying a 20% conglomerate discount) – implying a blended 13.4x FY24F P/E. Key risks: Escalation of input costs, weaker-than-expected sales/orders, fluctuation of chemical prices, and unfavourable FX rates.

Source: RHB Research - 28 Feb 2024