KUALA LUMPUR, May 30 — The southern Asean region including Malaysia yesterday entered into the dry season linked to the Southwest Monsoon, and this dry season is expected to continue on until this October, the Asean Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) has said.

The ASMC also said the southern Asean region is expected to have higher risks of haze during the June to October period this year.

The ASMC yesterday issued “Alert Level 1”, which indicated the start of the dry season in the southern Asean region.

The ASMC also said it had observed persistent drier weather in recent days in most parts of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and southern Thailand, as the monsoon rain band moves north of the Equator.

“With a high likelihood of El Niño conditions developing in the coming months, the dry season is expected to be more intense and prolonged compared to recent years, and extend into October 2023,” it said in a statement yesterday.

The El Niño phenomenon, which usually happens every three to five years and typically lasts nine to 12 months, is a naturally-occurring climate pattern where there is an abnormal warming of the surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon produces widespread and sometimes severe changes in the global climate, and would in Southeast Asia — which includes Malaysia — tend to bring drier weather and increase the risk of forest fires and smoke haze, the ASMC's website said.

The ASMC provides early warning on transboundary haze — which involves haze pollution occurring in a country but originating from another country — in the Asean region, using a three-tier system.

Under the ASMC's warning system, a Level 1 alert is for “dry season”, while a Level 2 alert is when there is an “increasing risk of transboundary haze” in the Asean region (featuring indicators such as “escalating” hotspot activities with moderate to dense smoke haze over two or more consecutive days; persisting dry weather; and prevailing winds blowing smoke haze from the hotspots towards neighbouring Asean countries).

The Level 3 alert would be the most severe category and is when there is “high risk of severe transboundary haze” in the Asean region (with indicators of “significant and persistent” hotspot activities with widespread moderate to dense smoke haze over two or more consecutive days; persisting dry weather; and prevailing winds blowing smoke haze from the hotspots towards neighbouring Asean countries).

In its statement yesterday, the ASMC said hotspot activities in the southern Asean region are still subdued, with 14 such hotspots detected on May 27 and 13 hotspots detected on May 28.

“A few localised smoke plumes were detected in parts of the region on some days in May 2023, but no transboundary smoke haze occurrence has been observed so far,” it said.

“ASMC assesses that there is a higher risk of escalated hotspot activities and transboundary smoke haze occurrence in the southern Asean region between June and October 2023, compared to the last three years when the dry season was moderated by prolonged La Niña conditions.

“Early precautionary and mitigation measures are advised to prevent the occurrence of fires and transboundary haze in the region,” it said.

According to the ASMC's website, the La Niña phenomenon is the reverse of the El Niño, and involves cooler waters developing over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean along the coast of South America. This phenomenon results in Southeast Asia experiencing higher than normal rainfall, which may result in increased occurrence of floods.

Updates on the weather and haze situation in the Asean region can be found on ASMC's website.

In the latest status as of yesterday, ASMC's map based on satellite surveillance showed hotspots mainly being detected in Laos, Vietnam and Borneo (mainly in Kalimantan, Indonesia and with several hotspots in Sabah and Sarawak). The map's status as of yesterday did not show any haze being detected.

https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2023/05/30/centre-dry-season-begins-for-southern-asean-including-malaysia-higher-haze-risks-from-june-to-october/71625