Radzi, it's good that you made 50% from Hibiscus. At least you're relieved from AAX that time. But do note that I did invest in other O & G counters namely Sumatec, UMWOG, Dayang..... to name a few. My return to date has been ranging from 50% to more than 100% in just 1 to 2 months similar to Hibiscus. And definitely our objective is to make money when we can in our investment but wisely. Otherwise it's self-defeating but it's no big deal on how much we gain or reap from our investment as long as we stick to our discipline. As for Hibiscus, it's irrelevant that you relate to AAX but rather conflicting since oil is a major threat to airlines now.

Pertaining to oil hedging, this is practiced by all airways. Of course AAX hedged for 2017 but the level of price and quantum of the hedge program vs the sharp oil price movement in 2017 which denoted the variance in fuel cost that impacted the bottom line in AAX P & L since jet fuel is biggest component in the cost structure. Moving into 2018, AA reported that their fuel hedging is even lower than 2017 until further revision is made. That really posts a challenging task now vis a vis the increasingly bullish oil trend now!

Radzi, bear in mind those routes above 4 hr only resumed in current Q1 FY'18 for AAX. Better seat margin plus forex gain are 2 interesting factors to note if the steep oil price gain could be countered. Somehow there's reservation since the fleet size remained unchanged to support Q4 operation which would have restricted revenue growth, yield and cost management. Ancillary income was targeted to improve profitability but then again it's still negligible at this point. A turnaround is very much expected when the fleet expands with new planes and additional leased units to meet the new routes and realignment program.

Guys .... glad that many of you have recovered from early losses especially radzi. One thing that has developed is that the group supposed optimism had turned pessimistic and now on recovery towards neutrality. To be clear of AAX direction let's look at the following simple factors for Q4:
1. Load factor - up 12%
2. No.of planes - same (22)
3. Oil price - up 10 - 20% (WTI 52 - 64)
4. Forex gain - up 5% (RM/USD 4.20 - 4)
5. Seat promotion - same or higher

Perhaps we can figure out on those simple factors for the financial status of AAX Q4.

Guys beware. Today's AAX reported the load factor for Q4 being 12% increase without change in fleet size. Today''s rally sparked off after this technical report. Hopefully the mkt never misconstrued the load report and financial report. This happened many times in the past.

Yes agree with PeterPan. TF and Kamal may not necessarily acquire. The ID notice is just a preparation going into the QR announcement as a Bursa requirement. They did that always in the past QRs.

Beware as BJLAND has strong posibility to go down below 0.30 before any turnaround as long as the 2 major issues involving legal pursuits are still pending. Hence there's no substantive support found at any level but just allowed to drift on. Since there's so much problem in this company TSVT may consider to take BJLAND private at a very low price at this juncture. Moreover he's controlling more than 70% of the shares directly and indirectly.

Today's 0.375 is the immediate support. If holds well over the next few days a rally may resume. Contrarily the gap 0.34 will be attempted and 0.325 may be critical support. Breaching that will allow the bearish direction to resume.

Load factor increase does not necessarily contribute in profit if air fares offered are very competitive which deplete the margin. To compensate that ancillary income is looked upon. Hence AAX has been focusing on earnings from luggage, f & b, cargo and the newly launched on board merchandise dubbed 'Amazon in the sky' to boost profit.

Technically if profit taking is expected that will be healthy as long as the neckline is preserved and turns supportive around 0.35 - 0.355. That'll alter the bearish pattern and reverse to positive direction ahead into 2018.

Yup humbleisland. Let's keep our fingers crossed. Hope for the better if not the best from now. TF to keep AAX smooth flying at current range before the next higher altitude.

Wow radzi. ....you really added @ 0.16? Very fortunate then and you'd have taken profit!

Initially Q1 and Q2 for 2017 were really encouraging when announced. Somehow Q3 report really took us by surprise. All the high hopes and expectation just evaporated when a sudden huge loss was declared in Q3. Our confidence level really shrank to a low point which we never anticipated. Technically before Q3 was reported the monthly chart already revealed a H & S pattern in formation but we just couldn't believe that as there's so much of positive news flow on AAX. The daily and weekly charts were flashing intermittent struggles of AAX to stay above. Finally the neckline was broken after Q3 was reported.

Q4 which just ended in Dec 2017 also would be a very tough Q moreover it's the final. Q4 was fraught with rapidly escalated oil price and competitive airfares though there's higher number of passengers travelling for year end holidays and stronger RINGGIT. The load factor would have been already stretched to its' best.

Would assume Q1 2018 to show better result and improves further throughout 2018. New routes especially to Jeju, Osaka and Hawaii to start stabilising after the launch in Q4 2017. New planes will join the enlarged fleet on top of the additional leased units recently secured to support the new route plan and realignment.

TF sudden joining of the group indeed bode well and lent credence to AAX. Somehow there're talks outside that he may be on board for some troubleshooting. Well time will tell what''s actually transpiring. Hopefully that's just mere rumour!

Following the oil price movement vs the RINGGIT strengthening, AAX is still subjected to cost pressure from rapid oil price escalation and margin squeeze from competitive airfares.

Beware. This rally may be a technical move to cover the gap down from 0.385 formed during last sell down in November 2017. The rally started when TF joined AAX as co CEO which also formed a gap up from 0.34. To sustain the current rally there must some concrete or major developments pending announcement in the near term. Following price movement and stock volume will confirm the direction. If the interest fizzles out over the next few days will affirm the current rally as merely a technical correction.

Current rally spike is mainly driven by e-wallet new venture. Coming EGM is to seek shareholders agreement to utilise funds raised earlier from rights issues for solar energy expansion. Assuming full shareholders agreement is secured, will the relevant authorities namely Bursa Msia and SC give full clearance on the waiver? What are the chances like actually? And how long will such approvals require?

To end all the unnecessary volatility and price instability it's best to call Bursa to stop all IBs from issuing CWs which don't really benefit holders but issuers actually. In addition that affects the fundamental of the respectective share in the short term.

The payment default does not bode well for BJLand and if still no settlement will lead to a long legal pursuit. Near term is negative for the company and may result negatively in BJCORP. There may be some weakness in the shares of both Cos in the near term.

The payment default may not bode well for the company. That surprises expectation to the downside!

Latest update!

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/12/08/berjaya-land-issues-notice-of-demand-to-beijing-skyocean-for-rm601m/

AA outlook for FY2018 with less than 10% fuel hedging.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/12/01/airasia-expected-to-deliver-strong-fourth-quarter-earnings

Alert!

AAX to be downgraded to small cap stock next week.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/11/30/westports-sime-darby-property-to-be-removed-from-fbm-klci/#LW3dQBSvEWjgzKUo.41

@radzi Finally you're back from a long hybernation. Well AAX seems not going anyway with the current oil sentiment, increasing staff and operation costs and lower seat margin. Continuous focus on increasing load factor while slashing seat prices are not improving the bottom line. The management are relying on ancillary income to boost profit is quite tough. The strengthening of Ringgit may cushion the high oil price but again that's subjected to the quantum of the increment. In Q4 to date the oil price surge exceeded 10% yet Ringgit has appreciated below 10% against USD. Hence, with the same current fleet of planes will still be difficult for AAX to deliver any miraculous figures till there's immediate expansion.

Technically, AAX has breached the neckline @ 0.355 and a strong rebound is immediately required to prevent a steep sell down with support levels below 0.30.

As for AA, the latest Q3 is not really a fantastic result but within expectation at best if you read thru the report clearly. Q4 may just deliver the full value expected with the antcipation of disposal gains on several non core businesses and the reportedly handsome dividend. Going into FY2018 will be very tough if the oil price continues soaring, increasing loads with heavy price promotion, increasing routes with new flights which also means increasing costs in financing and maintenance. Hence if cost per seat is not well managed and margin is not improved while increasing load factor will jeopardise the Co. The new focus an ancillary income to boost profit is an uphill task.

Guys, Y r u all after TF since he's not managing AAX but AA? He's just a major shareholder indirectly in the Co.

0.35 broken before rebounding to current level. Be cautious in following session.

Similarly AAX-WA has a double top like formation. A breakdown from 0.16 will confirm the start of a downtrend.

Technically AAX retested 0.35 for the 3rd time since 2016. Somehow AAX has formed a H &;S like pattern with the neckline at 0.355. AAX dropped to 0.35 yesterday before rebounding to close at 0m36. In the coming session AAX is very critical to stay above the neckline and to break out from 0.425 in the near term to nullify the H & S pattern. Yesterday breakdown from 0 355 is a strong warning! Likewise a breakdown from 0.35 is a confirmation that the uptrend since 2016 is over and a strong sell down will be on the card.

Think disposal gain can be expected mainly from properties in China and Vietnam but not from Sinapore and South Korea. And the gain will only be reflected in the Q3.

@laulau That amount may not be distributed as dividend. BJLand may utilise it to pare down debts as interest rates may rise soon. BJLand''s debts range from MYR to other major currencies just like BJCORP.

@chaostrader Where's AAX neckline actually? 0.35 or 0.355?

@laulau If Bjland to go for privatisation what's the fair value?

http://m.thesundaily.my/news/2017/11/10/berjaya-lands-bcity-project-resume-following-high-court-decision

http://m.thesundaily.my/news/2017/11/10/berjaya-lands-bcity-project-resume-following-high-court-decision

Yes. BJLand won! To resume STC project very soon.

Haha...... don't give up. Next week may offer some inspiration. Q3 countdown comes with lots of challenge and surprise. Stay tune!

BTW what's the oil direction for coming weeks? Clues for AAX and AAG.

Important announcement on BJLand this evening!

BTW there's an important announcement this evening.

Good info @laulau. Great to have you.

@chaostrader What do you see from the chart for AAX today?

@laulau. .....your comments are good feedbacks for all BJL and BJC fans. As long as there're facts and figures as substances, nothing to be shy off!

@laulau Is VT going to transform BJLand into a super investment hub following those hints?

@laulau What do you think of John's new appointment to BJLand? What's brewing up?

Good morning guys and fella aax fans. It's been great to see good flow of comments and feedback from you guys in this forum. Noted particularly @aceso having taken the driver seat since our sifu @radzi is missing since his refocus on hibiscus. Good inputs from aceso. Very positive. @Chaostrader also noted the technical support level and AAX movement. Following that if you guys are following chart will notice AAX had moved out from consolidation phase 0.37 to 0.38. Currently 0.38 has turned into support from resistance and in a tight Billinger band which signals a major move in the near term when there's a breakout. Notably AAX has an upper gap around 0.50 range. That's the initial target for AAX when the breakout comes. The weekly and monthly charts are turning positive likewise. Perhaps the pending Q3 is a real wildcard to all pessimism!

Why will AAX drop to 0.20?

Airasia Bhd (AAB) will soon change to Airasia Group Bhd (AAGB) in a group wide revamp into ultimately a purely investment holding company. As this is a group strategic restructuring, what will be the impacts on AAX directly and indirectly?

Radzi will tell you later that he's also buying AAX now! LOL......

The wildcard on oil prices now is OPEC''s meeting this week. Hedge funds are playing up speculatively for more oil cut supported by weak USD. Hence a lot of speculation currently.

Technically MYR/USD immediate support is RM4.00. Following support is RM3.80 followed by RM3.50. The wild card is when or by when.....which keeps everyone guessing!

Yes..0.35, 0.38 .....still possible as the buying season for the qtr is still opened. Every dip is opportunity before the next league. That's Y you hardly hear Radzi comments as his buying spree is still on. So do whatever you guys like now before the window closes and Radzi starts making bull calls!

Haha..... All new Airbus units otw are equipped with RR engine!

If that's the case how much can AAX gain from forex in Q4?