人生没有如果，只有結果

LOL

Public bank TP 2.5. Others 3.8. Why???

The profit will be trifold by 2020, easily hit rm 8-10 per share???

No. He has a group of investors to buy together. The brokers. Aim 60 cent in short term. Long term rm 1.00

My friend bought 100 lots today to top up. Big Sharks coming now. Tomorrow up again

One reason to own Hibiscus
Author: wltan22 | Publish date: Mon, 10 Apr 2017, 09:46 AM

One reason to own Hibiscus Petroleum
Company Snapshot
Listed in 2011 on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia. The company has come away as first SPAC status company in Bursa to O&G company. Hibiscus also the first E&P player on Bursa. For the past five years the company did not boded well with their investment in Australia, Norway and middle east that caused the company a few hundred million impairment. In the past, this type of company will not come across my mind. For the past few quarters, the company started to deliver some positive results, that's when it started to catch my eyes. I asked myself, will this be another turn around fairy tale company.

As far as I believe this time the company got it right with joint operator and the owner of Anasuria Cluster of producing field (50%), a significant cash and profit generating business in the UK North Sea.

Financial Performance

During the current three-month period (“current quarter”), the Group recorded a profit before taxation of RM10.0 million, an increase of RM2.5 million as compared to a profit before taxation of RM7.5 million in the preceding three-month period ended 30 September 2016 (“preceding quarter”).
The Anasuria Cluster contributed higher gross profit during the current quarter when compared to the preceding quarter by RM14.7 million. This was due to higher volume of oil and gas sold and lower operating costs (“OPEX”) per barrel of oil equivalent (“boe”).
We can referred to the table below from Oct to Dec 2016 average oil price was USD$41.70 was considered relative low, but generated higher gross profit due to higher volume oil production from 3,032 to 3,934 (volume increased by 29%) and lower operating cost from USD$18.39 to USD$12.97 (cost lower by 29%).
2 ways to increase profitability of the oil producing company
increase oil production volume
lower operating costs

My estimation
From January to March 2017, average oil price as USD$52.50, increased by 26% compare to preceding quarter, if the volume maintain as 3,934/day, so revenue should be increased by 26%, it will come up to around RM79mil revenue, PBT will be around RM12.64mil (base on 16%). The company definitely will benefit from rising oil price.
But be prepare the company share price will be very volatile due to
1)tension in middle east, usually oil price will surge, considered good to company
2)coming OPEC meeting, if output cut extended then the oil price will increase, if fall off then be prepare for another sell down, this become my biggest worry
Source: Public Investment Research estimates this company as RM0.60
DCF Valuation On Anasuria Cluster
Cost of Debt 5.0%
Cost of Equity 12.7%
Risk Free Rate 3.8%
Market Risk Premium 9.1%
Beta 1.0
Equity 77.8%
Debt 22.2%
Terminal rate 2.0%
WACC * 11.0%
Total DCF 419.9 No. of Shares ('000) 1443
Fair Value (USD) 0.29 Fair Value (RM) @ 4.10 1.19
Hibiscus Portion (50% interest) RM 0.60
If I valued the company as RM0.60, the current price RM0.47, upside about 27%, to me not really attractive. Right?
Reason for me to after this stock
Yes, this is the reason. In fact this was an old news on 12th Oct 2016.
To me, the company has great potential upside, once the company acquired this piece of asset.
North Sabah
The recent disclosure by the Group that its wholly owned subsidiary, SEA Hibiscus had on 12 October 2016 executed conditional transaction documents to acquire a 50% participating interest in the 2011 North Sabah Enhanced Oil Recovery Production Sharing Contract also bodes well for the future.
This asset has the potential to:
 Increase the oil production output of the Group by a factor of up to three times; (estimate will increase total output to 12k bbls/day, currently around 4k bbls/day)

 Provide the Group with a second revenue stream, independent of the Anasuria Cluster
Source: Public Investment Research estimates North Sabah as RM0.55
DCF Valuation On North Sabah EOR PSC
Cost of Debt 5.0%
Cost of Equity 12.7%
Risk Free Rate 3.8%
Market Risk Premium 9.1%
Beta 1.0
Equity 77.8%
Debt 22.2%
Terminal rate 2.0%

Let's wait for Q1 profit announcement. It's profit soars

Nobody can predict the bottom. Even warren buffet. Buy for long term. Oil should reach 60 per barrel by this year if drop more buy more. When others are careful we must be greedy.

Hibiscus Petroleum has come away from its special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) status to qualify as a O&G production and development company. We believe contributions delivered from its first producing field, the Anasuria Cluster in UK, has anchored its position more prominently amongst its oil peers. We are thus reviewing Hibiscus, premised on the undervaluation of its Anasuria Cluster asset valued at RM0.60 based on our DCF valuation with an 11.0% WACC. There is also further potential upside, with the conditional sale and purchase agreement (SPA) for the Group to acquire the 50% stake of the North Sabah Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) PSC, a partnership with Petronas Carigali which seems within reach, expected latest mid-2017. As a sweetener to the acquisition if successful, the deal structure will recognize contributions to the Group back-dated from 1 January 2017 onwards.

Upside from core operations. We value Hibiscus? 50% stake in Anasuria Cluster at RM0.60 based on our DCF valuation with an 11.0% WACC. The Group currently owns and operates the field together with Ping Petroleum Limited. Our valuation has accounted for the decommissioning capex and various taxes.
Potential upside boost. The conditional SPA with Sabah Shell Petroleum Company Limited and Shell Sabah Selatan Sdn Bhd to acquire a 50% participating interest in the 2011 North Sabah EOR PSC with Petronas Carigali for USD25m, comprising of 4 producing fields and all its associated equipment and assets including the Labuan Crude Oil Terminal is worth an estimated RM0.55. This assumes the production of its 2P remaining reserves of 62MMstb, no additional capex investment, OPEX cost of USD13.30/bbl through the remaining lifespan of the production rights (of 24years) up to 2040.
Higher, stable oil price at about USD50/bbl levels enhances attractiveness. We see this holding up based on i) OPEC?s agreement to cap output at 32.5mbbl/sday, ii) President-elect Donald Trump?s energy independence vision to only take shape at a much later stage, iii) end of the prolonged oil price cycle which should see new operations coming online, otherwise a major depletion of 20% could be seen as soon as 2017 onwards with the supply crunch in 2019.
Our base case fair value of RM0.60 is premised on a DCF valuation of Hibiscus? 50% stake in the Anasuria cluster with a 11.0% WACC. We are also positive on a further upside boost of an additional RM0.55 with the potential acquisition of the North Sabah asset. The total fair value of Hibiscus would therefore be RM1.15 if the acquisition is successful, pending approvals from Petronas. The base case scenario however of RM0.60 still offers a potential 37.1% upside from current share price.

TP RM 1.15

We should be happy to accumulate more if drop to 43 cents however those who had went in at 50 cents and above maybe can buy more now to lower your cost. TO unchanged. 1.15 RM due to Anasuria which is worth 60 cent per share and Australia gas operation and Sabah new venture to be announce soon. The bug taiko has went in at 44 cents d. Let's see how tomorrow

Crude oil rebound after OPEC meeting from 46 to 52. A debt free company like hibiscus. Printing money every day. TP 1.00 may hit 90 cent in this year when crude oil hit usd 60-70 PB

Positive momentum up 2.5 cent today. Soon may see 50 cents

Contingent consideration. We do note that there is a contingent consideration to the vendors, if oil price is above USD75/bbl, but only for between 2018-2021. The contingent consideration is 15cents per USD/bbl. Factoring in this consideration and with the assumption that oil price is at USD75/bbl from 2018 to 2035, Hibiscus? portion of the Anasuria Cluster is worth RM1.03 with the above assumptions remaining unchanged.

Target price 90 cents. Big banker bought into this counter d last two days. Also Benelac and airasia. By April many good news coming

Must buy another 20 lots at 41 cents to balance my cost

Our base case fair value of RM0.60 is premised on a DCF valuation of Hibiscus? 50% stake in the Anasuria cluster with a 11.0% WACC. We are also positive on a further upside boost of an additional RM0.55 with the potential acquisition of the North Sabah asset. The total fair value of Hibiscus would therefore be RM1.15 if the acquisition is successful, pending approvals from Petronas. The base case scenario however of RM0.60 still offers a potential 37.1% upside from current share price.

Be greedy when others are fearful

Oil company made money even at 39 usd per barrel. Cost of production is 20 usd anything above 20 is a bonus to oil companies. Don't worry. If maintain at 50 oil companies are happy d

Actually hibiscus is making money at 40 used per barrel d. The OPEC decision to cut the output in 2006, caused the crude oil price surge from 60 to 145 used per barrel height. Don't forget that the oil supply may finish one day and the usage has been increased due to higher consumption and increased if world populations

If we hold until 2019 from this price at 40.5 cent we may make 100-200% easily. Just my crazy thought

Upside from core operations. We value Hibiscus? 50% stake in Anasuria Cluster at RM0.60 based on our DCF valuation with an 11.0% WACC. The Group currently owns and operates the field together with Ping Petroleum Limited. Our valuation has accounted for the decommissioning capex and various taxes.
Potential upside boost. The conditional SPA with Sabah Shell Petroleum Company Limited and Shell Sabah Selatan Sdn Bhd to acquire a 50% participating interest in the 2011 North Sabah EOR PSC with Petronas Carigali for USD25m, comprising of 4 producing fields and all its associated equipment and assets including the Labuan Crude Oil Terminal is worth an estimated RM0.55. This assumes the production of its 2P remaining reserves of 62MMstb, no additional capex investment, OPEX cost of USD13.30/bbl through the remaining lifespan of the production rights (of 24years) up to 2040.
Higher, stable oil price at about USD50/bbl levels enhances attractiveness. We see this holding up based on i) OPEC?s agreement to cap output at 32.5mbbl/sday, ii) President-elect Donald Trump?s energy independence vision to only take shape at a much later stage, iii) end of the prolonged oil price cycle which should see new operations coming online, otherwise a major depletion of 20% could be seen as soon as 2017 onwards with the supply crunch in 2019.

Furthermore hibiscus bought into 50% of Anasuria last year that produce 400,000 barrels per day for the next 20 years. Everyday print money for you. If opec decided to cut production on 26th March meeting. It's very scary if we don't have oil share a bit and keep paying najis next month onwards on weekly ceiling petrol price.

the oil company actually also make money even at use 30 per barrel because the cost to produce only used 20 per barrel. Most oil companies can't survive because of their heavy borrowing. This counter can invest provided you don't borrow money from your credit cards personal loan and refinance your housing loan to play. Scary because you want to make quick money. You want fast money go Genting lo. It may drop to 20 cent again and it may shoot up to 1.50 if crude oil price is back to 70-100 usd. Oil may finish one day in our lifetime. Hibiscus is debt free. Cash cow and buy more oil fields

FINANCIALS

The Group is currently in a net cash position, and is therefore able to gear up where needed for the future. As at 1QFY17 results, the Group has shown a boost in earnings from its deferred taxation. Stripping off the reversal of deferred taxation, the Group?s earnings would register a better net loss position of RM6.7m, which we are positive would continue in an upward trend as performance will be driven by the higher, current stable oil price levels, and with all expected one-offs to have been accounted for.

How is income derived? Revenue is accounted when oil or gas is lifted by the buyer (off take) at most commonly a spot price. Then energy royalty (if any) is deducted, followed by the lifting cost. At the EBITDA level, CAPEX, OPEX and all taxes are deducted before earnings are recognized.

Valuation – fair value of RM0.60. We value Hibiscus? 50% stake in Anasuria Cluster at RM0.60 based on our DCF valuation with an 11.0% WACC. The Group currently owns and operates the field together with Ping Petroleum Limited. Our valuation has accounted for the decommissioning capex and various taxes.

Decommissioning capex. As part of the Decommissioning Security Agreement (DSA), it is the Group?s obligation to dismantle and remove the facility, and to restore the site on which it is located. The estimated decommissioning cost and restoration of RM257m is discounted to its net present value. We understand that this amount is the discounted initial provision for decommissioning costs capitalised and amortised over the life of the Anasuria cluster fields on a unit of production basis over the proven and probably developed reserves.

Contingent consideration. We do note that there is a contingent consideration to the vendors, if oil price is above USD75/bbl, but only for between 2018-2021. The contingent consideration is 15cents per USD/bbl. Factoring in this consideration and with the assumption that oil price is at USD75/bbl from 2018 to 2035, Hibiscus? portion of the Anasuria Cluster is worth RM1.03 with the above assumptions remaining unchanged.

http://www.enanyang.my/news/20170322/%e6%9c%89%e5%9f%ba%e9%87%91%e6%8a%bc%e6%b3%a8%e6%b2%b9%e4%bb%b7-%e4%b8%80%e5%b9%b4%e5%86%85%e8%a7%81100%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83/

Crude oil shoot up to 145 per barrel in 2008 after OPEC meeting to reduce the output in 2006