Don under estimate india if US want to India to grow fast they will get enough support

Bcos the data the collect based on historical data...if u shortern the data collection period then armada beta is low

ITreeinvestor

#ONGC is eyeing commencement of #Oil production from its flagship deepwater project KG-98/2 Development Project in December 2023.

Gas production from Project has already commenced in March 2020 with plan of further ramping up by May 2024.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/oilandnaturalgascorporation_ongc-oil-ongcjeetegatohjeetegaindia-activity-7137463703498596352-aHSb

Nik the minister may refer to the gas production in 2nd stages in May 2024

Here state oil production will state this month posted 2 days ago only why so many noise here

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/oilandnaturalgascorporation_ongc-oil-ongcjeetegatohjeetegaindia-activity-7137463703498596352-aHSb?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/oilandnaturalgascorporation_ongc-oil-ongcjeetegatohjeetegaindia-activity-7137463703498596352-aHSb?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/07/31/energy/sunak-north-sea-oil-gas-licenses/index.html

FPSOs market:
Tight capacity due to financial constraint.
Participation can be from JV, new project
Alternatively, can acquire deliver project
Opportunity is there
Don have to worry about the BAB competency
Design or technical related vs yinson.
Yinson so far so good but projects have just been delievered or underconstruction.
Majorities are delivered less than 3 years. So its still early to judge the FPSOs delivered. If BAB has the FCF and low gearing I don see why BAB cant grow their top line in near term.
I also noted that some of the investors very sensitive to the day to day operation or hitcup or development for instance the HSP issues when I shared my view as an investor and I do not have in depth technical knowledge but my view purely from top down approach and BAB has navigated tru that incident. So we as an investors must know what is crucial to assess, what will weight on the share price and what type of investors are you, else every day is a doom day.

Just my view.

Be selective always a key for the new CEO onboard few years ago. Things started to turn better. So beae with them. Don risk for unprofitable project.

Pls refer annual report

Thanks robert. Im not good at this

The key learning pts here is the hsp can be refurbished and the lead time is not as scary as the analysts shared. So now just lool forqard for the green agenda plan

Nick. Thanks for update. Based on the info gather from here. With 2nd hsp they prodiction can reach 100% anytime without 3rd hsp in near term
Also noted that the lead time to look for refurbish hsp ald shortern than expected. All things looking good.

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/interviews/navigator-nearly-good-to-go-on-carbon-carrier-orders-as-it-targets-uk-with-bumi-armada/2-1-1475823

Navigator has been prpfitable over the last 3 years. The equity fund stand at 1.1B.

Biz model for ccs. BA will be an owner for injection vessel and operatijg for the vessel

BAB EPCC project not bad mah. Don have to carry so many oil & gas portfolio. Diverting to green energy attract investors

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EXCLUSIVE See all articles

EnQuest chief executive: Amjad BseisuPhoto: ENQUEST
Kraken FPSO update: UK safety regulator checking events that led to shutdown
All quiet from field operator EnQuest on the plans for restoring production

16 June 2023 3:01 GMT UPDATED 16 June 2023 6:55 GMT
By Russell Searancke in Oslo
The UK’s Health & Safety Executive (HSE) is examining the events that led to the shutdown several weeks ago of the Kraken offshore oilfield in the UK North Sea, which field operator EnQuest has still not acknowledged.

An HSE spokesperson told Upstream the agency is aware of the Kraken incident and is “currently looking into the circumstances leading to the shutdown”.


Critical topsides equipment failure forces shut-in of UK FPSO
Read more
The Kraken field had, according to EnQuest, performed well during the fourth quarter of 2022, during which time it passed the milestone of 60 million barrels of oil (gross) produced since start-up in mid-2017, and delivered “top-quartile production efficiency of 93% and production at the top end of its guidance range”.

However, a sudden failure of hydraulic submersible pump (HSP) transformers on the Armada Kraken floating production, storage and offloading vessel forced the field to be shut down, according to the FPSO's owner Bumi Armada, which leases the vessel to EnQuest under a bareboat charter contract.

The Malaysian FPSO operator warned on 2 June that the financial impact of the incident was “expected to be material for Bumi Armada” due to the uncertainties around future operations.

Upstream asked EnQuest to acknowledge the incident and to provide a forward plan, but the UK company said it had no comment to offer.

Likewise, Bumi Armada was not ready to provide an update regarding the Kraken situation.

The forward plan
According to well-placed industry sources, the FPSO has four HSP transformers, which are essential in the production process of the thick viscous oil from Kraken.

Only one of those HSPs is available for use, and the other three need to be replaced.

The focus is therefore on bringing on restricted production via the one available HSP, and trying to convert a water injection pump to function as an HSP, said sources.

Some sources suggested that limited production had in fact been generated, but this could not be confirmed.

The reasons for the sudden failure of the HSPs could not be confirmed either, but several industry experts said EnQuest and Bumi Armada had pushed the processing equipment to its limits.

They have not reported any news prior to this in fb. Btwn. I think drop due to oil price sentiment

Niki i feel like the content of this facebook is old story. Is not the latest news. Looking at the storyline

2260lots here. Damn cool

CIMB released report with assumption of worst senario

Robert. U see the points. Thing broken (now) and can be replaced or resolved vs previous issue did not meet the requirement due to geo issue. Low revenue or renevue lost from kraken is for sure but will recover eventually.

If cant restart then go by phased like the mentioned in the announcement. split the operation rather than waiting for one

There are 15 units of Subsea – Hydraulic Submersible Pumps (HSPs) installed in fpso for wells.

Previous management team vs current management team

This is bursa requiremenr for listed company. Good to understand from listing requirement rather than guessing

Nic. Planned or unplanned shutdown if due to periodic operation issue on wear and tear may not need to announce. Material announcement may or may not necessary due to huge losses. Sometime they are unable to quantify the lossess or timelime to resolve the matter be ir 1 week or 1 month then they have to accouncement 1st fort the interest of investors. So dont be tend to over positive or extremely negative towards the announcement. Risk to be taken for investment. To me this is one off and not recurring. If drag for 1 month revenue might drop 1 to 2 % of annual revenue.

10% of topline. But issue can be resolved. Relax

This is the first ccs project from petronas awarded last year base in malaysia

https://mhb.com.my/mhb-awarded-the-epcic-alliance-for-kasawari-ccs-project-from-petronas-carigali/

Pls don follow IB TP. They have their favor stock. They will write what they want. Just extract the info from analyst btiefing will do. MIB always revised TP when thing materialized for BAB. Previously all IB also treat BAB like this bcos BAB always disappointing the analysts. But now left MIB i guess bcos their top stock under fpso or o&g is yinson. They have no choice.

STOCK IMPACT  1Q23 EBITDA improved 4% yoy to RM341m (flattish qoq). This contained earnings from its sole remaining and its flagship OSV, the Armada Tuah 3000 (AT300). AT300 was still generating earnings for Bumi Armada (BAB) until 2Q23, under its 10-year charter with Shell, and the contract expiry as well as the handover of the OSV to Shell was done in 2 May 23. The AT300 and the FPSO Armada Claire (disposed of in Apr 23 for US$20m) are classified under asset held for sale in 1Q23 amounting to RM88m. The FPSO Claire’s sale will see a US$12m disposal gain in BAB’s 2Q23 results. Despite lower qoq revenue, we believe BAB was able to gain cost savings as commodity prices normalised during the quarter.  Net debt/EBITDA continued to decline to 3x. Its net gearing is the lowest since 2015, after repaying US$110m of loans in 1Q23 and bringing down loan base to RM5b. BAB said it has submitted bids for projects, but made no mention on the size nor the number of projects it is pursuing. Previously, it guided that it can take on 1-2 FPSO projects on its own, and another 1-2 more projects shared with its partner SP Energy on the JV level. We believe that in line with its newly focused sustainability goals, it is likely that BAB is more focused on pursuing floating gas type of projects, vs FPSOs.  On 2 May 23, TotalEnergies announced a head of agreement for Cameia. The head of agreement was signed with its partner and the Angola regulator, Agencia Nacional de Petroleo Gas (ANPG), the party that is responsible to study and approve the field development plan for the oil project, or the final investment decision (FID). ANPG said this agreement “acts as an important milestone for the sanctioning, and allows the first production of Cameia-Golfinho fields”, located on Blocks 20 and 21 of Kwanza Basin. And, it detailed the need for an FPSO, the 7th for TotalEnergies in Angola. ANPG’s final statement is “will await the next phases for the concretisation of results”.  In our view, it is difficult to determine if this development is as good as a FID. But, it is possible that it a) signals that TotalEnergies want to keep to its original project timeline and hence is trying to hasten the process to secure FID, b) a new agreement is needed to help incorporate green capex into the oil project and the FPSO plans, or c) a simpler process towards FID before ANPG becomes busy in 2H23 working on other matters (managing new Angola onshore concessions). Having said, it is unclear if BAB remains as the preferred FPSO contractor.  JV FPSO Armada Sterling V now expected for first oil by Jun 23, by the client national oil major of India Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC). The FPSO is a 70:30 JV project of Sharpooji: BAB, under a US$2b nine-year firm charter (seven years of extension). The bond ratings agency CareEdge stated that the daily bareboat charter rate is US$609,200, and capex is US$1.17b (above original US$1b estimate). The FPSO has met its latest mobilisation date of Dec 22, but is not yet known to us if the FPSO will earn some layup rate in 2Q23. Conservatively, we assume no earnings until first oil. EARNINGS REVISION/RISK  Retain earnings forecasts. We may fine-tune our JV forecasts once FPSO Armada Sterling V achieves first oil. Our 2025 yoy earnings decline conservatively assumes that we do not factor another major FPSO win, and that FPSO TGT1 and FPSO Kraken may not be renewed after their firm expiries in end-2024/2H25 respectively. VALUATION/RECOMMENDATION  Retain BUY with target price of RM0.75 (implied 5x 2023F PE), which also inputs JV FPSO DCF at RM0.07/share. BAB still remains as a discount to Yinson’s 15x PE valuation, but the target prices are consistently within 5-7x EV/EBITDA. While Yinson holds many growth projects to justify a higher 7x EV/EBITDA, BAB’s re-rating will depend on its ability to materialize future contract replenishment catalyst.

RESULTS  1Q23 core profit of RM209m is in line, at 26% of expectation. Note that our forecasts have yet to fully input the contribution from FPSO Armada Sterling V, which is on standby for first oil. On its existing projects, the FPSO income declined qoq as FPSO Kraken was undergoing various extensive remedial work on all four engines, while also improving its safety systems to meet the regulator’s standard (31 May 23 deadline).  Asset-light segment appears to be back to normalised run-rate, with 1Q23 profits of RM3m/RM1.5m respectively on the operating level and the JV project level (likely due to various modification works for Karapan Armada Sterling III). While there is no disclosure on the mix of works done for existing assets vs pre-engineering works for potential projects, we note that 1Q23 profit level is fairly consistent with 2021’s base of RM5m/RM13m on the operating and JV level respectively.

Affin

Incoming FPSO to drive stronger 2H23 profit ➢ Bumi Armada’s 1Q23 core net profit of RM206m (+16% yoy) in line with our and consensus expectations, accounting for 24–25% of respective forecasts ➢ The new ONGC’s Sterling V is expected to lift 2H23 profit. Caspian Sea job prospects continue to look promising for both its subsea construction vessels ➢ Reaffirm BUY with a higher DCF-based 12-month target price of RM0.85 Solid quarter BAB continued to sustain its average RM210m quarterly profit run rate without any surprise. 1Q23 core net profit grew 16% yoy to RM206m driven by stronger JV profit and higher FPSO vessel uptime, which also resulted in a 1ppt EBITDA margin improvement. All FPSOs are running close to the optimum 100% uptime, with FPSO Kraken operating at c.94% efficiency, a slight improvement from last year. Net gearing was reduced from 0.9x to 0.8x qoq in 1Q23, a demonstration of its strong cash flow generation. We expect earnings to step up in 2H23 once the new FPSO Sterling V commences its 10-year firm charter with ONGC. We gather that job prospects in the Caspian Sea remain rosy whereby both its subsea construction vessels are in the midst of tendering for work, and if materializes will further lift our existing forecasts. Further strengthening its balance sheet for new opportunities ahead Two asset disposals are expected to take place in 2Q23: the last OSV in its fleet and FPSO Claire. BAB is expected to book a US$12m gain on disposal for FPSO Claire in the upcoming quarter. The expected US$20m proceeds have been earmarked to repay debt which stands at RM5bn at end 1Q23. By reducing the current net gearing level, this will allow BAB more balance sheet flexibility to explore new growth projects. The robust FPSO market presents good opportunities to secure more FPSO projects. Elsewhere, BAB is also exploring more gas infrastructure asset opportunities and carbon capture injection and storage projects as part of its sustainability strategies. Raise TP to RM0.85; maintain BUY We roll forward our valuation and raise our DCF-based target price to RM0.85 (from RM0.80), which implies an attractive 6x forward PE. The maiden Sterling V contribution, potential new FPSO and subsea construction vessels contract wins are amongst the catalysts remaining in 2023E. Maintain BUY. Downside risks include unforeseen FPSO termination or operation disruptions.

From RHB:
BAB is in talks with the client over the potential standby rate payment. Could be link to 98/2

ONGC will be BAB close partner going forward. Do not think they want to frustrate them. Im fine with this is as long as the issue will be resolved

Kakinada 98/2 •FPSO Sterling V successfully hooked up with the STP buoy mooring system since endDec 2022, and is now ready to commence commissioning upon provision of first oil by ONGC.

From analyst presentation slide

Cimb and mib always lagging. They favor yinson. So...

https://acrobat.adobe.com/link/review?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:49070160-7e7a-355c-be2e-7371bd1a3e59

2nd part of cimb report

We raise our target price from 69 sen to 87 sen for two reasons. 1. We reduce our cost of equity assumption from 16% (using beta of 2) to 13% (using beta of 1.5), as we believe the risks surrounding BAB now are much lower than in previous years due to several years of stability in the operations of FPSO Kraken and FPSO Olombendo. 2. We also incorporate an 11 sen uplift to our SOP by assuming that BAB will win one EPCIC contract at an assumed capex of US$1.5bn FPSO project at a 10% margin. BAB has been identified by industry newspaper Upstream as the most likely candidate to win TotalEnergies’ Cameia FPSO project to develop the Cameia and Golfinho discoveries offshore Angola. As this is a purely EPCIC project, the risk of a rights issue is low, in our view. Potential re-rating catalysts include continued strong results from the FPSO segment, improving activities in the oil and gas industry as a result of high oil prices, and the improved prospects for BAB to secure longer-term and more substantial work for its two Caspian Sea pipelay vessels. Also, we expect TotalEnergies to award the commercial deal for the FPSO Cameia sometime this year. Meanwhile, BAB may be bidding for additional FPSO projects. We believe that BAB will avoid a rights issue for any future FPSO project wins, as BAB may opt for JV partnerships for new FPSO projects that may make a rights issue unnecessary or rely on upfront supplier funding that can be material. Also, BAB had said it is not interested in taking on project work for more than two large FPSOs at the same time, in order to better manage resource availability.

I feel very comfortable with the current management.

Cimb

Good set of 1Q23 results when excluding taxes 1Q23 core net profit of RM198m was 13% lower qoq mainly due to the absence of a tax writeback that was seen in 4Q22; without this item, 1Q23 core net profit would have declined only 5% qoq. This residual decline was caused by lower FPSO Kraken uptime vs. 4Q22, and lower variation order revenues for the FPSO Olombendo. Furthermore, BAB had completed its Caspian Sea subsea construction jobs in 4Q22. These factors were partly mitigated by higher engineering services revenues, as BAB performed more of such services for its associate company in India. Against 1Q22, 1Q23 core net profit was 9% higher yoy because of higher Kraken uptime. BAB ready to take on new contracts; an award may be near Looking forward into 2Q23F, BAB will complete the sale of the laid-up FPSO Armada Claire for US$20m, and also complete the sale of its final remaining OSV; we forecast exceptional disposal gains of c.RM50m. More importantly, BAB is looking forward to the project award by TotalEnergies of an FPSO earmarked for the development of the Cameia and Golfinho discoveries offshore Angola. According to a Mar 2023 report by industry newspaper Upstream, BAB had already reserved a slot with an offshore yard in Singapore, due to the tight availability of yard space, to prepare for the potential award of the Cameia FPSO job. BAB also confirmed at its analyst briefing this afternoon that it had tendered for various other FPSO jobs, although it is careful not to take more than two large jobs simultaneously in order to not overstretch its resources. After three years of stable operations by BAB’s Kraken and Olombendo FPSO assets, BAB has successfully degeared itself, with the 1Q23 net gearing at only 0.82x vs. 1Q20’s 2.95x. BAB believes, and we concur, that it is ready for growth, and ready for new project intake. Target price uplift from assumed EPCIC award, plus lower Ke We incorporate an 11 sen uplift to our SOP valuation by assuming that BAB will win the TotalEnergies’ FPSO Cameia EPCIC project at an assumed capex of US$1.5bn and 10% margin. As this is a purely EPCIC project, the risk of a rights issue is low, in our view. We also reduce our cost of equity assumption from 16% (using beta of 2) to 13% (using beta of 1.5), as the risks surrounding BAB are much lower than in previous years. If BAB wins this award, we expect its share price to re-rate. BAB is also bidding for more Caspian Sea subsea construction work this year. Downside risks include an unexpected and material decline in oil prices that may cause a pause in the pace of upstream FPSO capex spending by the oil majors and national oil companies, impacting BAB’s future growth potential.

Thanks Nic.

The project finance loan for Armada Kraken was fully repaid in March 2023, over three months ahead of schedule

Yinson. Too big to fail. One project hitcup will stretch their balance sheet. Thats why you cant give high valuation for yinson. To be fair. They run all projects concurrently not progressively.