Posted by TimCoke > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Breakthrough very soon!

Posted by shocklim > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Huge block at 64.5 sen

Posted by nikicheong > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

In the AGM back in May 2024, the CFO alluded to the fact that cash was consciously being conserved to undertake an upcoming project. In Sep 2024, they fully repaid the RM1.5bil sukuk by taking out another matching loan, instead of utilizing some of the cash pile to reduce the refinanced loan.

It is either:
1. They really don't know what they're doing and have missed an opportunity to use the cash to reduce the interest expense. As it is, the new loan carries an interest rate of around 9.0%, compared to 6.35% for the previous Sukuk.

2. There is a project around the corner requiring significant outlay. It can't be the Bluestreak FCSIU, as the FID will only happen in the 2026-2027 period at the very earliest. It also can't be the Akia PSC exploration, as that too will only happen in the 2026-2027 period at the very earliest. So that leaves us with some possibilities on an imminent contract win:

a. Sarawak Shell FCSIU
b. Enquest Sullum Voe Terminal FSU/FSRU
c. Madura FLNG
d. Unknown FPSO project (least likely possibility as there are no known prospects at the moment)

3. There was something on the cards at the time of the AGM, but it's since been deferred or scrapped or awarded to another company.

Posted by ocbc > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

M&A price must be >$0.98

Posted by Sovereign > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

nikicheong, the fact that they are conserving cash is obvious. It is everyone's case what it is for but I assume they know what they are doing. It is a competent management team having brought the company from the brink at one time when it was under heavy debt loads. It has been reported that FPSO market was tight and while Yinson are able to win one project after another with debt profile not as good as BAB when BAB was not winning any bids or submitting bids, I am confident that the cash is for something significant either for upcoming projects or with an eye for the merger matrics with MISC.

Posted by nikicheong > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

@Sovereign, there is definitely some question marks on competency. They have stemmed the bleeding, mainly by selling off the OSVs and stabilising the operations at Kraken (which nevertheless still resulted in the blown transformers last year). There is no magic wand being waved beyond that.

Since 2015, the only notable contract win is the Armada Sterling V.

They have spent hundreds of million MYR on conducting all kinds of studies relating to "green" technology since 2020, with nothing to show for it yet.

They have 2 expensive vessels laying idle for over 5 years in the Caspian Sea, with a short campaign for hire in 2022.

The FPSO market has been red hot for the past 3 years, where has Bumi Armada been? One after another, they lost on promising prospects - chief of which was Agogo and Cameia in Angola. They were very certain to land either one, eventually they got nothing.

The debt situation was brought down to acceptable levels by mid to end 2022, so that's not the excuse for missing out on these projects.

To make matters worse, the Bumi Armada management lacks transparency as I have shown in the past, where material information is withheld from the public.

So yes, I would assume there is a good reason to conserve and grow the cash pile. But I am not certain they know what they're going to use it for.

Sometimes, I feel like Bumi Armada should close down its corporate and sales offices, and just focus on operating their existing assets and maximising shareholder returns. The terminal value after factoring in all the cost savings would be around RM0.90 to RM1.00 per share.

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

CGS has projected losses for yinson in fy2026

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Unexpected core net loss of RM16m in 3QFY25 (Aug-Oct 2024) Yinson unexpectedly reported a 3QFY25 core net loss of RM16m (vs. 2QFY25’s core net profit of RM133m), which was below expectations due to EPCIC loss and higher corporate overheads. Yinson booked in an EPCIC operating loss of RM62m in 3QFY25 against an EPCIC operating profit of RM373m in 2QFY25 as 1) Yinson’s three construction projects already reached a high percentage of completion, leading to lower EPCIC revenue and profit recognition; 2) Yinson incurred full operating costs for the FPSO Maria Quiteria in the run-up to first oil on 15 Oct 2024; and 3) first oil for the FPSO Atlanta was delayed from the original target date of Sep 2024 due to the strike at IBAMA (Brazil’s environmental agency) in Jun-Aug 2024, causing Yinson to incur full operating costs without being able to book in any revenues. Meanwhile, Yinson’s corporate overheads rose from RM67m in 1QFY25 to RM89m in 2QFY25 and further to RM102m in 3QFY25 as it continued to invest and spend on capacity building and on various growth projects for the future. The 3QFY25 core net loss would have been much wider if not for Yinson booking in RM314m in “finance lease receivable (FLR) remeasurement gain”. Yinson reported a 3QFY25 net profit of RM200m, mainly because of RM181m in exceptional gains (details on page 3). Heavy interest expense burden may result in FY26F core net loss We expect Yinson to deliver a small core net profit in 4QFY25F of RM7m as the EPCIC loss for the FPSO Atlanta will likely continue into the quarter given that Yinson only expects it to achieve first oil in late-Dec 2024F. With the FPSO Agogo already 80% completed as at 31 Oct 2024 (sail-away from the yard targeted for Feb-Mar 2025F), we also do not expect significant EPCIC contributions from the vessel in 4QFY25F or in FY26F. We have relooked our forecasts for FY26F, which we now cut to a core net loss of RM262m vs. a core net profit of RM217m previously. Although we forecast Yinson to report RM2.3bn in FPSO charter-hire operating profit in FY25F (vs. RM2bn in FY24F including RM314m in FLR remeasurement gains), we also expect Yinson to incur RM0.4bn in corporate overheads and RM1.8bn in interest expense in FY26F (up from RM1.7bn in FY25F), which will consume most of next year’s group operating profit, with another RM0.3bn of taxes and RM0.2bn of minority interest to be deducted in order to arrive at the bottomline. Given the earnings trajectory for FY26F, we expect Yinson’s share price upside to be more limited than our previous expectation; hence we reduce our TP to RM3.09, although we retain our Add call for the potential rerating catalyst of the c.US$1bn fund raising exercise in earlyJan 2025F. Downside risks include delays in first oil target of late-Dec 2024F for the FPSO Atlanta and delays in execution of the FPSO Agogo project.

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Reducing our target price ■ 9MFY1/25 core net profit made up only 46% of our full-year forecast due to EPCIC losses, higher overheads, and higher interest expense in 3QFY25. ■ We retain Add but with a modest 15% upside to our SOP-based end-CY25F TP of RM3.09, reduced from RM3.61 on faster-than-expected cash burn rate. ■ The key rerating catalyst is our expectation that Yinson will announce a c.US$1bn cash-raising exercise in early-Jan 2025F to fund its growth plans.

Posted by Sovereign > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

nikicheong, points taken. As we muse about what could have been for BAB, the share is stirring.

Posted by Sovereign > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

What it takes is a project or two getting into trouble for Yinson to be on a tailspin like during the dark days of BAB when Armada Claire contract was terminated and initial poor performance of Armada Kraken.

Posted by nikicheong > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

By the way, the Nigerian market is heating up once again. For many years there was a pause due to policy uncertainty. Way back in 2017-2018 era, Bumi Armada was the frontrunner for the Eni ZabaZaba FPSO. However the project was never sanctioned. If revisited, Bumi Armada might be interested. As they would in other Nigerian FPSO opportunities.

Posted by ITreeinvestor > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

We favour: i) defensive midstream companies – with Dialog as our pick; and
ii) FPSO players which are poised to ride on the global deep and ultradeepwater capex investments – with Bumi Armada as our pick.

Posted by nikicheong > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Which investment bank is this from?

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/oeec-ccs-will-employ-as-many-people-as-oil-gas-at-its-peak/

Posted by ITreeinvestor > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Niki, it's from Maybank

Posted by TimCoke > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

aiks~

Posted by Robert Waters > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Like in the card game, I call BS on that carbon capture employment reaching Oil and Gas. And the need for regulation and government support reveals the truth ...

I say wind is the best carbon capture. It moves carbon east -west. Makes as much sense as move it up and down, from surface to underground.

Posted by abcb > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Something is brewing up for ARMADA

Posted by abcb > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Try to challenge 0.70 to 0.80 within a few days

Posted by TimCoke > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Collect more!

Posted by ocbc > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

M&A price must be >$0.98

Posted by Robert Waters > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

That I agree. Many times too many I sold counters that were going up senselessly and against all logic. Soon after, there was an anouncement. New contract, winning law suit or similar. In Armada case most likely positive is that the statue of limitation has run out. Or judge decided that they will not be tried as an adult and go to minor court. Or their officer in Malaysia Anti Corruption Committee resigned.
:-)

Posted by vespa > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

@Robert Waters lol

Posted by TimCoke > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

M&A $ < 0.6

Posted by vespa > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

TimCoke … any basis to your comment ?

Posted by 696988 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

M&A below 0.6?
For current situation ( NTA 0.96, CEO holding ticket, company earning money ) why have to discount 30%?
Another point of view, Tycoon's investment team and CEO of the company will the ticket to be so cheap? If not mistaken their job is trying maximize company profit.

https://www.sinchew.com.my/news/20241209/%E6%98%9F%E6%B4%B2%E4%BA%BA/6131133
If the news valuation is correct which is 4.6billion, then can apply for a simple calculation
( 4,600.00/share 5,927.88) = 0.775

No buy sell call

If you have any latest M&A news please update, because i also want to know M&A price tqvm.

Posted by vespa > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

This is about a month old and am not sure if posted earlier by others but here goes.
Gain For MISC With Bumi Armada Synergy
By Editor -November 16, 2024

News broke in Jul 2024 that MISC may take a substantial stake in Bumi Armada Berhad, obliquely implying that Objektif Bersatu Sdn Bhd (OBSB, ultimately owned by tycoon Ananda Krishan) that holds a 34.6% stake in BAB could be looking to exit the company.

MISC’s share price subsequently corrected 16% from RM8.90 on 3 Jul 2024 to a recent low of RM7.46 on 25 Oct 2024, as shareholders feared the implications of MISC possibly having to expend a lot of its cash on a mandatory general offer (MGO). We think that this worst-case scenario is now unlikely to be true, as MISC and BAB announced to Bursa on 14 Nov 2024 that both parties have signed an MOU and will over the next nine months explore a merger of MISC’s Offshore Business Unit (OBU) with BAB in an all-share transaction. CGS Investment Bank theorises that MISC may inject its OBU into BAB in exchange for new BAB shares. The house’s target price for BAB implies a RM4.7bn valuation (in contrast to its market cap of RM3bn), while it also values MISC’s offshore business at RM15bn.

Combining the two entities at these valuations, MISC will end up with a 76% stake in the merged entity (‘ME’), while OBSB’s stake in ME may be diluted to 8.3%. MISC may be obliged to execute an MGO for BAB, according to the Malaysian Code on Take-Overs and Mergers 2016, but if OBSB publicly announces that it does not intend to accept the MGO, there is a chance that MISC may not cross the compulsory acquisition threshold of 90%, which fits in well with the stated intention of both MISC and BAB to keep ME listed.

As such, assuming the merger is completed, CGS expects MISC to place out shares in ME to ensure adequate free float. A 10% placement by MISC may raise RM1.97bn for MISC (assuming a valuation of RM19.7bn for ME), equivalent to 22% of the RM9.1bn that MISC had spent on building the FPSO Mero-3. In this way, CGS believes that MISC can indirectly achieve its goal of paring down its stake in Mero-3, since its efforts to find trade buyers for the Mero-3 have so far not been successful, according to the company.

Operating synergies and prospects for MISC’s growth
MISC may experience a relief rally, since an all-shares transaction will help preserve MISC’s cash balances. The house thinks that a merger of two mid-sized FPSO companies can also help pool engineering resources, with cost synergies, while MISC can gain exposure to BAB’s growth initiatives, including the Bluestreak carbon capture and storage (CCS) project in the UK, and the potential to monetise gas via a floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) solution in Indonesia. The house reiterates Add on these potential rerating catalysts.

EGMs will need to be convened at both companies, giving minority shareholders a chance to analyse closely and vote accordingly. The key downside risks are if the valuation for MISC’s OBU is lower than expected, or if BAB’s valuation is higher than expected.

Posted by vespa > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

https://www.businesstoday.com.my/2024/11/16/gain-for-misc-with-bumi-armada-synergy/

Posted by sheldon > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

TQ vespa.
The last sentence was from MISC's perspective hence opposite for BAB.

Posted by nikicheong > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

https://www.pharos.energy/investors/press-releases/vietnam-production-licence-extensions-granted/

The TGT block has been granted a 5-year license extension to 2031! This is good news, as the Armada TGT FPSO's lease was recently extended to 2026. There is a potential 5 additional years of extension to come in the future.

Posted by sg999 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Game over???

Posted by Robert Waters > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

About a month ago, CEO of Sapura Energy resigned. Stock went up 50%. From 3 to 4.5 sen. (back to usual now). Imagine the reward for shareholders if Greedy Gary resign. One can only dream.

Posted by shocklim > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

@ Robery Waters

Has Gary done a good job as CEO?

I guess so as he has brought the company from the red into the black

And from billions of debt to what it is today

Can he do any better by getting new and additional contracts?

Yes

But are we sure a new CEO can do any better.

Sometimes it is better to deal with the devil we know than the angel we do not.

Anyways, just my 2 sen worth of opinion as i am not as knowlegable as you and NikiCheong

Posted by vespa > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

Armada’s future would lift off with Petronas being the benefactor.. Hopefully the merger takes place with MISC’s outfit.

Posted by sg999 > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

TIME TO ALL IN！！！ 0.78 a t least!!!

Posted by Just88 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Nikicheong, any estimate on the potential impairments amount in Q4 ? Thanks

Posted by Just88 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

what is the current book value for armada kraken ?

Posted by nikicheong > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Just88 no estimate. It’s a management overlay, they can pluck any figure. If I had to guess, something in the region of rm200mil.

Posted by Just88 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Nikicheong, thank you for your opinion. Any idea what is the current book value of karken ?

Posted by Robert Waters > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

Happy New Year 2025 Everyone.

Posted by vespa > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

I echo your greetings Mr Waters

Posted by nikicheong > 1 day ago | Report Abuse

Blessed new year to everyone! May the new year beckon positive developments at Bumi Armada.

Posted by TimCoke > 1 day ago | Report Abuse

signaling

Posted by alivetoinvest > 10 hours ago | Report Abuse

Astro Next

Posted by Robert Waters > 8 hours ago | Report Abuse

That was one BIG Dump. I was just selling some at 0.67 looking at transactions when I saw dozens of selling notifications bring it down to 0.655 with see of red flowing in. Somebody crystallized his profit.

Posted by TimCoke > 7 hours ago | Report Abuse

buy low

Posted by MarketNavigator > 7 hours ago | Report Abuse

Can't consider current price is low liao

Posted by TimCoke > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

sold some, lets see how later

Posted by Robert Waters > 9 minutes ago | Report Abuse

l have been selling over past few days. There is still possibility of this company shares to go up. But I had it for too long. Greedy Gary, green initiatives that never materialize, impairments every few years ... all of that wears me out.