@GENER....normal to feel like this!

GENER....traders cannot see the value. I have many trader friends. To wait 3 months is too long for them....

The investors will wait patiently for price to go lower, then they will come in! It is going to be difficult to go below 80 and 85 sen, as a few months ago, investors has already bought at off market deals at these price level.

I don't expect anything exciting on Q4,2020 result tomorrow.
Q1 to Q4, 2021 should be the thing to watch!

Just take the 8 Conlay contract value and divide by 34 months, you will see the numbers in 2021. It is more than 100mil per quarter just by 8 Conlay contribution alone.

* 8 Conlay project commencement date: 23 November 2020

* Completion date: 22 Sep 2023 (34 months from commencement date)

* Contract value 1..249 billion (with additional Stage Performance Incentive of about RM16 million roughly)

So, just about to released Q4,2020 result you cannot see much of the 8 Conlay contribution. The 4 qtrs of 2021 will see step up numbers on the revenue and PAT.....

If 8 Conlay project smoothly in 2021, you can definitely expect a good year for GDB!

I would project the PE to come back to 10 to 15 range if no surprises. GDB is reputable for project delivery, so hope that it can be good as well at this difficult Covid time....

So, coming 4 quarters number are the one to watch....

The important 8 Conlay project contribution to revenue and bottom line is expected in Q1,2021.....if the current project site activities is active and busy, then I would suggest that you might want to add more GDB shares to your holdings.....

M3T01213 is a savvy investor...me and him talk privately sometimes.

He is focus and also discipline! Up and coming good investor.

Agree GENER! Most like to trade including myself but we must not loose sight of the long term investment gains especially potential good growth company like GDB.....

@Akifuyu....frankly I don't know but my guess is next one to three years, GDB will be still good!

I say one to three years basically due to order book secured.

If GDB continues to build up their order book every year, you can rest assured it is going to worth more than now.....

*RHB Morning Cuppa*

*GDB Holdings (GDB MK, NOT RATED, FV: MYR1.50)*
_Quality Contractor For Quality Developers_
Trading Idea
MYR1.50 FV based on 10x P/E. We like GDB Holdings for its strong track record in the high-rise construction segment and solid balance sheet. The company’s current construction projects are mostly mid- to high-end property projects by many reputable developers in the market, and the timely payments by these clients have ensured its healthy cash flow. With the latest contract win of MYR1.25bn, we expect earnings to triple in FY21F, as construction works are allowed to continue under MCO 2.0. FY21F dividend yield is attractive at c.6%.

Disclaimer: This message is for information purposes only. Reproduction or dissemination to third party is prohibited. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor shall it be construed as an offer/solicitation or recommendation to buy/sell any stocks. Investors should make their own informed decisions by consulting your own independent adviser(s) before investing. We accept no responsibility or liability for loss or damage that may arise from the reliance of this message. For the full information regarding the stocks mentioned herein please refer to the relevant websites

When to Sell Stocks

Unlike traders who follow charts to make buy and sell decisions, value investors, after buying shares, seldom sell in the short-term. This is especially true for those following quality investing; they invest in great and sustainable businesses for the long run to let compounding does it magic, and hardly sell their shares as it is not easy to find another quality stock to replace it for the long haul.

One of the biggest mistakes or wrong reason to sell a stock is boredom. Don’t be a bumble bee buzzing around from one position to the next. However, what is bought must eventually be sold.

Those people relying on charts use technical signals to make market timing on selling. Some of these signals include a loss of momentum, reaching an overbought state basing on relative strength indicator, or suffering a breakdown on the stock chart. Price targets are set based on price ceilings that the market has defined in the past. However, few chartists have been successful in consistently selling at the right timing following those technical sell signals.

For value investors, buying a stock at the right price is vital, as your return depends on the price you pay. However, without selling, your gain is only a number and you won’t realize the “real” profits. In fact, for most stocks, if you don't sell at the appropriate time, the benefits of proper buying disappear.
There are a few good reasons to sell a stock.

A stock should be sold to realize profit if the share price has risen rapidly above its perceived intrinsic value. This is especially true for cyclical stocks which have risen too much in price during their up cycles. If we don’t sell at their high prices, we may not see the profit later when the down cycle comes as the good time may not be sustainable. The question is, by how much above? For this, I will present my opinion in a coming article.

A stock should also be sold if we discover that we have made a serious mistake in our investment thesis for the stock. We have discovered some cockroaches hiding in the closet. We sell even though we have made a loss in the stock.

We should also sell the stock if later, there is a fundamental change for the worse of the business, something we did not see or anticipated in our previous analysis. In other words, the story has changed. This doesn’t mean we should sell the stock due to the drop of its stock price or reduced company’s earnings in a quarter or two, whereas the long-term fundamentals have not changed.

I often sell a stock when I sense signs of management incompetence or unethical and untrustworthy behaviour. Honesty and credibility of the management is very important, for if they are not, not matter how good is the business and how much the company will earn, as a minority shareholder, they won’t share the fruits of success of the company with us.

As a retail investor, our investment capitals are limited. If we have found a better stock which may provide better return, we may have to sell the existing stock for some proceeds to invest in the better stock with better future. It is the opportunity cost we are weighing on.

In a bull market when stock price goes up a lot and we find that we now have too many stocks in our asset class, we may need to sell some stocks to re-balance our asset allocation as a good practice.

Of course, sometimes we may need money such as starting a business or buying a home, hopefully not for an expensive holiday overseas, we may have to sell the stocks we have.

By KC Chong

If GDB do a good job on 8 Conlay, it will enhance GDB'S reputation in the market further....it is a challenging project.....

Charlie Munger on investment thinking:

https://youtu.be/MI4JhahurS4

The big money is the the waiting....quote by Charlie Munger...

The actions should be on next year on the quarterly profits.....

@Yinyin88:

If there is legal case, it is between KSK and the China contractor, nothing to do with GDB....

GDB 2021 receivable will show if payments is not on time....

In fact, you can monitor on it starting Q1, 2021....

We are all speculating here. Just give it a bit of time, everything will be clear.

8 Conlay may end up as one of GDB's best project....never know...

Malaysia going to sign RCEP, will it be negative to steel and cement businesses in Malaysia?

Malaysia going to sign RCEP, will it be negative to steel and cement businesses in Malaysia?

Totally agree....

Just hold or buy more and keep until next year...explosive growth of revenue growth by next year....no more guessing game!

GDB is likely to double revenue in 2021....LOA on
8 Conlay awarded today....congrats to all....

Value vs Growth: There is an interesting article in the latest Edge weekly this morning....highly recommended to read.

On my own interpretation, GDB basically has changed from value to growth stock since 2018...

https://simplywall.st/stocks/my/capital-goods/klse-gdb/gdb-holdings-berhad-shares/news/gdb-holdings-berhads-klsegdb-recent-stock-performance-looks-decent-can-strong-fundamentals-be-the-reason/

Investment theme for GDB: "Zero debt....pays reasonable dividends and explosive business growth for at least for the next two years"

Developing trust take time...i haven't learn to trust Ekovest..
Please take no offence....i have followed GDB for more than 2 years.
I believe i can trust them!

GDB valuation with 8Conlay:

As of end June 2020, order book was at 1.02 billion. With the 8 Conlay, order book now swell to (1.02+1.25= 2.27 bil)

Q3 revenue recognition is completed, assuming is 100 mil....so remaining book order at the end of Q3 is 2.27bil minus 100mil....left with 2.17bil order book at the end of Q3.

Divide 2.17 by 3 you get about 723 mil revenue per year for the next 3 years.

Assuming margin of 7%, PAT is about 50.6 mil a year....EPS is equal to 50.6 divided by 625 = 8.1 sen per share

At 15 times PE, share price is 15x8.1sen, about RM1.20

Fundamental on the business is more powerful than speculative happenings....

@goh188....totally agree....

https://www.nst.com.my/property/2020/09/622925/desa-parkcity-continues-thrive

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/733165

https://www.gdbhb.com.my/

https://www.nst.com.my/property/2020/09/622925/desa-parkcity-continues-thrive

https://jawplace.com/a-laggard-theme-construction/

A construction laggard theme....

https://youtu.be/-ao3S5y1XrU

https://www.edgeprop.my/content/1717622/hap-sengs-flagship-industrial-project-be-completed-1q2021?mc_cid=1ababb04cb&mc_eid=14a725927b

GDB important milestone:

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/gdb-targets-rm1b-turnover-five-years

https://youtu.be/dtqYYVZWw3s

https://www.facebook.com/nanyang.nysp/videos/268102111120822/?d=null&vh=e

While the Covid is a concern, it is better to look at the look term potential of GDB. Short term businesses are affected by all sort of problems

Received your email....thanks...glad to touch base....

My email: ssshock@yahoo.com

ok,good...I like fundamental...We can be in touch to share...

I invested in GDB since 2018.....So far, GDB is still my long term investment stock....

Let's keep in touch....

I agree not a direct comparison.....just curious, are you a shareholder of GDB?

Yes...I noted Yoong Kah Yin was on top 30 list in the GDB 2018 annual report....he must have sold out as i cannot see his name anymore in the 2019 annual report.

He said he is a proponent of buy and hold guy in the video interviewed by BFM....wonder why he has not done so for?

Looking at KAB valuation now, it makes you wonder why market has priced GDB so much lower than KAB....

Ian Yoong must be a great promoter!

GDB should consider selling him some shares...ha-ha!

Ian Yoong bought into KAB last year before its stock price rocketed!

KAB Bhd: Ian Yoong interviewed

https://youtu.be/d0rx434zOYs

https://simplywall.st/stocks/my/capital-goods/klse-gdb/gdb-holdings-berhad-shares/news/gdb-holdings-berhads-klsegdb-fundamentals-look-pretty-strong-could-the-market-be-wrong-about-the-stock/

I like to bring you guys attention on the comparison of GDB with KAB...

KAB is under ACE counter but have a market cap of 713mil as of today. GDB is only 384mil....

In term of profits GDB is nearly 3 times more than KAB but market cap is nearly half of KAB....kind of crazy, right?

KAB is mainly on Electrical Engineering Services.

Page 18 is important to read....

GDB 2019 annual report released today....you can read it now!