http://needleberlin.com/2018/04/09/flying-the-worlds-worst-airlines-you-thought-ryanair-was-bad/

I hope Tony and AirAsia top management really take the time to read this and do something to improve....

Collect for 2 to 3 years investment....

Bought 0.285 and 0.290....

90sen dividend means payout about RM3.0bil....if half of this is converted back to shares at RM2.0, it is about 750mil shares....

I still view the 12sen dividend the most immediate important if one still intend to hold the shares....the future business growth only comes later.....

Today and Monday are interesting days to watch....

You are welcome....

Suggest those that are interested in GDB study the last 5 years P&L(2014 to 2018)....You can get these numbers in the latest 2018 annual report.

I was at the Inta investor briefing in Penang lately...not that i like Inta...i just want to bench mark it to GDB...

When you have high receivable, meaning company's cash are not with you and worst some of it might end up as bad debt and need to be written off in the future...

Worst when you secure new projects, you may not have enough financing to fund them, resulting in more bank borrowings that will reduce your margins...

How to read balance sheet?

https://youtu.be/dO3zL1Z6iwk

Low cash receivable meaning collection is good...

GDB's latest Q1 report shows about 183mil in current asset....current liability is about RM88mil...so acquiring the piling business will not make much dent to GDB's strong balance sheet....i expect GDB will pay another 1.0sen by coming September...

My main concern with Inta is the receivable number in the balance sheet....about RM199mil....compare this to GDB then you will know...high receivable is dangerous...

Why EPF keep selling?

Just my guess...keep it low for ex....then buy it low after ex...

Note the quantity EPF sells are small relative to what they bought earlier....

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/6231645

Interesting numbers....

It is a stock that the market has not really look at it yet.....

I like GDB because of:

1. Strong balance sheet
2. Strong competitive advantage in project delivery
3. Good dividend yield
4. Plenty of room for growth
5. Near future to main board
6. Reasonable PE
7. Good margin on projects secured

Don't expect oil price to go much higher....

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/IEA-Dont-Expect-Oil-Prices-To-Go-Much-Higher.html

If you look back the last 40sen ex....AirAsia share price has gained back the 40sen after about a month after ex....while we cannot say it will be the same for the coming 90sen, it is difficult to predict the market effect on its share price...it is better to decide if we think AirAsia's business is still with potential going forward, in this case the digital business transformation...in my view there is a chance but nothing is for sure...investing is always come with certain degree of risk that must take...

If we value AirAsia's share price base on dividend yield after ex 90sen: (assuming 12sen going forward)

At dividend yield of:
4% : RM3.00
5% : RM2.40
6% : RM2.00
7% : RM1.70

https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/hleresearch/214865.jsp

Looks like the market trust Nomura more than Citi....

For now, maybe it is better to value AirAsia base on dividend yield until there is more clarity on digital business transformation...As a guide, 5% dividend yield as a reasonable guide for computing its fair s price...you can use 12sen to work this out....divide 12sen by 5%....

Going forward, it is reasonable to expect the market to support AirAsia's share price at about 5% dividend yield. It is also reasonable to expect AirAsia to continue to pay 12sen dividend judging on their cash flow.....

Divide 12sen by 5%, you can a target price of RM2.40 base on dividend support.....

I have invested in AirAsia for about 5 years now! Happy with my investment so far....With all the annual dividends/special dividends that i have received and the big one coming soon, my capital investment risk is getting less each day....

Going forward, the next 5 years will be a challenging one. I see there maybe some risks but it can be also be a rewarding one, only if Tony can do a good job in AirAsia 3.0!

Investment is about risk and reward. It is really hard to find one that you are willing to invest substantially...

I guess my 5 years stint in AirAsia has given me enough time to understand a bit more on the business, although i cannot claim to know all, it is sufficient for me to make a decision...

I have decided to continue my adventure with AirAsia for better or for worst....

I do share privately to friends on my other investments, only if we get to know each other....

You cannot find the word borrowings in GDB balance sheet....now that is impressive....

If you look at the 2018 profit margin for GDB, it is still about 10%. Considering 2018 is a soft market year, GDB margin is still credible. You can compare this to other construction houses to get the feel....

I was at the AGM but not sure whether you guys were there...GDB is a good company and will be my long term investment stock for sure...

Those that are waiting to buy in will always say a lower price hoping to influence some selling so that they can buy cheap....the fact that they remain here but have negative views say it all...

It is anybody guess how much AirAsia will worth going forward after ex...if Tony can do a good job on AirAsia 3.0 plan then AirAsia can be valuable after ex....the jury is still out there!

The buying force is likely to be stronger as it approaches the ex date.....

Look out for the foreign shareholdings % number by early next month(early July). It should be able to tell some story. If the % reverses more than 33.59%, it is a good sign that indicates foreign shareholdings selling has ended. If it is still going lower than 33.59%. Then look at the delta whether is big or small. While i believe the local institutions have been absorbing the selling by foreigners since 2018, it is important that the selling must ease off before it can create a condition for an uptrend reversal.

33.59% is at a historical low, the historical high was about 60%. While i don't know how low it can gets to, all i can say the selling pressure should not be so great now!

Agjl....serious! I am looking for a cheap buy after ex....

@Value Investor Coo1eo: After ex i am willing to buy from you at 20sen higher than the 80sen you talk about! Please let me know how many shares you have that you are willing to sell out....

After ex there are RM3 billion cash out there waiting....even just RM1 billion convert back to shares, it will be still too many:

At RM2.0, RM1 billion will mop up 500 mil shares! More than double what EPF is holding now.....

What about those new money looking to enter? It anybody guess on what will happen after ex....likely Raymond may not be right although he hope the bash down will happen...ha..ha...

@maoyap....you are probably right!

If you look back the last 5 years, there are only a few major pull backs...and if you are good at buying at these points, you are likely to make enough money by now...

If Raymond Yap has many followers, it might happened!

With 90sen dividend given out and share price bashed down, you can imagine what will happen....

Agjl, I have read part of Nomura's comment.....Cimb and Nomura are at different ends of the scale. I took the 6 analysts earlier to average out is to have a better margin of safety...even that the TP is still way off from CIMB's target price....

AirAsia's foreign shareholdings as at end 2018 was at historical low, 30 over percent, if i am not mistaken. AirAsia announced foreign shareholdings every 6 months. It is a important fund flow information. By early next month, my guess is foreign shareholdings might even be lower judging from the price movement in the 1st half 2019.

After ex i will have plenty of cash to wait for them to bash down....my only worry is that they don't bash down after ex....Assuming if it can be another 2015 re-run, with 90sen cash, i am ready for it....

https://youtu.be/8olfKKdRD3I

Whatever TF gets, all shareholders received as well. The 1.78 is going back to the banks where he borrowed the money to purchase the additional shares. What happened is he ended up owning more shares!

I viewed this as a good thing as his increased stake will motivate him to work harder for the future value of AirAsia!

When i bought AirAsia, the gearing was so high that i have read people like Calvin Tan and some other guys wrote so much negatives on the high gearing. There is good and bad side on owning the hard assets. As for me i don't mind to try out the light asset mode and let Tony to transform the digital business model. There is always risk in investing, even doing your own business has risk!

For many including myself, the massive dividends we received in the last two years has reduced the risk on our capital outlay. All we need to do now is to decide whether we want to go along with Tony on his digital business journey. I have been with AirAsia for 5 years and i will monitor his digital business for awhile to see its potential before i decide the next course of actions!

Analysts set targets for next 12 months, real investors look at business potential for the next few years!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-06/iran-opposes-higher-oil-prices-signaling-divide-with-saudis

https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/46

If you look at GDB's profit after tax(PAT) growth, it has rocketed 9 times since 2014 to 2018.....it is really impressive.....considering the construction sector was weak during this period.....

That will be great....

Have to wait now....

Jarklp, where are you working now?

I was told that customers are impressed with GDB.....really a good sign....

The CEO Cheah was Mitsui trained in the early years.....the 5S culture is still there....

Worthwhile to take a bit of time to study GDB Bhd.....I am still long on AirAsia...

Let CIMB do the press down.....then buy at price you willing to pay....oil price up and down will be always there....take a long term average view to see the picture.....example for investing, if you think on the average AirAsia can still make a billion a year, and if you are paying 5 to 6 billion(net off cash) for a billion profit, is it reasonable return for you?....of course for trading then it is a different story...