I would agree.

Sapura can be summarized as,

"We perform all the loss making portions of the OnG industry".

======
Posted by Philip ( 2.3% fatality rate, 80% recovery rate age 10-40) > Mar 10, 2020 12:35 AM | Report Abuse

Saprnrg deals are structured very differently to say a yinson. Their payments are based on the selling price per barrel of oil shares with owner. So it's a huge risk, every barrel they produce now loses money. If price is good they make tons, but at these prices they might as well stop operations and make more money that way.

Yinson on the other hand is relatively stable due to 25 year delivery contracts where they are paid a firm fix day rate to deliver, and not based on oil price.

This should be reflected in ROA?

Would be great if i could get the data though. Next time maybe.

===
Posted by Philip ( 2.3% fatality rate, 80% recovery rate age 10-40) > Mar 8, 2020 5:56 PM | Report Abuse

You forgot gross loans impairment.

Pbb 0.49%
Dbs 1.5%

I wonder if its possible for RM3 anot. Wahhh i tell you, really delicious then.

For Phillip, sell all to go in might make sense.

For me, honestly, for some reason SAPRNG looks very interesting now. Market cap less than 20% of the enterprise value. Banks are funding your bet (because this is nothing but a speculative punt). Would PNB allow SAPNRG to go down right after putting 8bil into the company?

====
Outliar I honestly think it would be a +ev move to sell all your stocks and go all in on PCHEM, not going to do it though obviously but still.
09/03/2020 12:32 PM

Well, use the remaining 5 today.

If you're long term, the risk reward is very much in your favor right now.

What a day.

Me and Phillip in same boat now, just different companies.

KYY really needs to remember that everytime he does not follow OTB, he loses alot of money

Haha things will be fun tmr. I'm balls deep into petrochemicals.

Phillip, unlike you, i actually quote the original links.

I even linked them at the very top, bolded it and used different colours.

I never said I wrote it, or translated it. Instead, I actively said it was not me. I have no idea why it is still not obvious to some.

Having said that, if you were to still choose to think so highly of me, well, i can't stop you.

Still reading the book and mulling things over.

I've learnt my lesson when it comes to being very sure about certain things, that are so opaque and complex that you need to be very wise and knowledgeable about just to be unsure.

To say me and li lu is like heaven and Earth, would be to underestimate the gap between us.

I had linked his original link at the top, so that people can go to site to view it.

If that was not clear enough for some reason, I can put his name as well, and make the font bigger.

Cheoky,

For me conclusion very simple.

Go long China, focus on China companies.

When Phillip is being civil. I find myself agreeing with him.

One of the hardest things I've ever learnt is buy earnings, not nta. I'm not a liquidator.

All my nta co's are the one's I find most irritated by right now. When petronm drops, I smile abit while being a little angry that my position is so big, that I don't feel comfortable buying more.

When plenitude falls. I just feel irritated. Because I don't feel like buying more.

Haha I wish I wrote this.

But I'm nowhere near li lu level to be able to think and write this out haha.

Bought a bit today.

wow, my additions to my position went right in at the bottom haha.

Aiyoh, i really cannot keep up with these retirees in arguing online.

Really no energy, read the comments also sien d.

Can we stick to talking about the stock ah?

Well, phillip, you have to be honest with yourself about something! Plagiarizing the work of others and attributing it as your own is pretty low, but then again, i don't have high expectations of you.

Nope. Icon and i actually differ extremely widely. I don't touch most if not all of his shares. We just have different philosophies. And what looks good in his philosophy, may not necessarily look good under my investment philosophy and usually it dosen't.

In fact, not too long ago, i called him a pump and dumper. Still, given your age, size of your ego and your integrity (or lack thereof), this inability to get even your facts right is probably the least of your flaws.

LCTITAN, ah. Thanks for raising that, we do need our noses rubbed into our mistakes often. There really isn't a more effective way than this in ensuring your minimize your mistakes.

I made 2 key errors. None of them related to icon, or his research.


One,
I failed to properly study historical earnings. If i did, i would have found out that they listed off record high earnings, and in the throes of record of demand and prices for polypropolene. At RM4, i felt it was cheap even if earnings was half of then, not realizing that is no way a deep enough discount. Still i knew that i knew very little of the company, and so bought something like a 0.7% position at RM4.

Two,
I did not properly consider the industry dynamics (Esp for the US new refineries and the type of refineries used), especially in terms of the supply coming online vs projected demand. If i did, i would have discounted it significantly more.

Still at today's price of less than cash (even though the cash is going to a refinery), its far too cheap.

I subsequently topped up a little at RM2.2, and RM1.7. For a total position of about 2.3%.

If i can see the the oversupply and low spreads, so can other refiners who will (and are) naturally slowing down producing and delaying project schedules.

I think this low cracks is a cyclical issue. In any event, your PCHEM is not immune either with PP's being about 60% of its business.

No idea if kitchen sinking.

but hmm, im buying it mainly for the airport, need to study abit more

Phillip,

Keep talking while i buy some PCHEM at RM5.2.

What was your average cost again ah? Can't remember leh? I remember your spoke loudest when it was Rm9

Got money to shoot fish in barrel anot?

I'm just waiting for you to comment again about your 10m margin line, when they are people like buffet with enough cash on hand to buy half KLSE staying quiet.

A little frustrated, because i told myself my position is at max size and i won't buy more.

But at this price, getting very hard to tahan.

I really don't want my position any bigger.

Wah mahathir counter. This is fun.

I like SAM.

But i'm wondering if banking on Malaysia Market similarly overvalues SAM the same way it does to the other semicon related stocks is a good idea.

Still at this price, pretty ok lah for a Temasek run biz.

Have not studied the numbers in depth.

To be fair, if you look at the prospective value of PCHEM for the next 10 years, this price is quite leng.


===
Posted by Icon8888 > Mar 1, 2020 3:58 AM | Report Abuse

Titan one thing I learn in 2018 is that your decision to buy downtreding stock should be based on prospective PE

Not how much it has come down

Otherwise you will catch falling knife

I can tell you guys now, rating agents and creditors are hounding WCE on their traffic projections lah. Especially after the discounts by NSE.

Haha yeah, text me whenever.

Pretty good, busy as hell with the restructuring, last few months went back 3-4am everyday. T_T. Severely reduced my stocks studying time.

Sometimes i don't understand why icon want to layan phillip so much.

Recently, Phillip also can even start arguing with kcchongnz and insulting him. Walau, the guy temperament like saint like that, also can fight with him, terror lah.

The only person i see not arguing with phillip, are people who like to jilat his "pacific rims".

Esp those people who are willing to ask the questions that will enable him to you,

"Young man, you shouldnt do it like that, follow me, i am the best and i am right" (elaborated over at minimum 400 more words)

Aiyah guys, relax lah.

You can build the bulk of your position at RM4-RM5.

Unlike Phillip who bought the bulk of his at RM8, then RM9. Then RM7, before sailang in RM6.

I doubt he is able pour much in at RM5 d.

I hope you learnt something today! I know i did!

Considering ICON's sailang into Jaks in 2019, and that most of his portfolio is in ABMB having exited Jaks at the end of 2018.

I have no doubt he is ahead of your -1% returns for the last 14 months.

As for stoneco, i bought too, at around USD20.

Before you arrogantly say its your call (given the size of your ego), based off research you copy and pasted from Seekingalpha, and attributed as your own.

Its Todd Combs, not yours.

You're not the only one in the world following, buffet and his team you know.

And everybody also know how to type "https://seekingalpha.com/" into google and read other people's research.

Its just that unlike you, most people are not so thick skinned as to take the research of others and post it as their own, and champion it as their own buy call.

Anyway i'm done, replying to you is a complete waste of time and effort. I would call you an internet troll, but that would be an insult to them.

Phillip,

You should try calming down a little, you incoherence is incredible when you're mad. Which is always, given the size of your ego.

PPHB was not a pick from you, it was from Yeong Sheng Tey.

http://www.sharetisfy.com/2017/12/pphb-8273-annual-letter-2017.html

Having said that, i give credit where some are due.

I initiated my study of PCHEM, liked what i saw in terms of the business economics (not the management, which is mediocre), considered it a abit overvalued.

However, i guess, deep down i was influenced by the fact you bought it, and figure it should be ok and bought a 1% position. Thankfully, i did not buy much more than that.

Which will allow me to buy much more at RM4-RM5.


====

No need to twist left and right.

Just open your shared portfolio. Lifetime is gain or loss?

Looks like a loss to me.

It started since 1 Jan 2019. I'll give you benefit of doubt as to whether that's you're actual buy or sell. But it does not change the fact that is your performance for the last 14 months.

Now, whether or not it will perform well for the next 10-20 years, well, i have no comments. i like 2 of the companies, but the others are too rich for me.

At the end of the day price matters.

However, its always better to overpay somewhat for a great company, that to buy a mediocre company cheaply.

Whether or not you overpaid QL and YINSON by too much, is another question, which i do not have the answer, but based on the balance of probabilities, i would think so.

Not my RM50M though.

Just make sure you keep your ego and arrogance to your comments and public conduct, and out of your investment analysis, and you should do fine.

Also, I'm fairly certain more people have lost money following your calls, vs icons this year.

But if course, like Mahathir, you are eternally blind to your own flaws.

Phillip,

I said owners earnings. Just a cursory look, because you're just not worth the effort of me to pull out a calculator, its at RM300+m

Well,i never said i was good at predicting, nor do i rely on my ability to predict short term results.

Still, i predicted a loss, and got a gain. While you predicted Rm1.2bil profit a quarter, and it showed you Rm300m.

With predictions like these, i hope i am wrong alot more consistently!

I sold RCECAP given the situation then and rebuy it subsequently at 8% more, not a big deal. Unlike you, who are so talented at buying PCHEM at a 20-30% premium, and with millions too!

Profits for HY? Never wrote about that.

Research for QL? Never wrote that either.
===
Unlike your model, Warren buffet, who is old, intelligent and humble. You are old, intellectual yet idiot, and egoistic.

Well, at least you have a RM50m margin of safety.

Unless you're really stupid and start doing drugs and start buying private jets and yatchs, you should live your remaining days in reasonable comfort.

You might be the first person i met who actually really needs a RM50m margin of safety. Anything less, and you might actually leave this world a pauper, a situation you are no stranger to.

All the best.

Ah, KIRZ impairments of about RM22.1m knocked down the profits this Q.

One thing i find interesting, is that their (failed?) venture into thailand cost only RM22.1+RM11.7 (Investment of THB87.4m), for a grand total RM33.8m.

Not bad, costs alot less than what i would have expected.

wow

And surprise surprise.

RM4.5

Don't jinx it! I always buy significantly above the bottom.

===
Outliar Choivo's recent timing has been impeccable
14/02/2020 3:24 PM

I really like family mart, but the price of QL, make me want to vomit blood.

This one not my money to make.

Yes, PCHEM is more diversified, but still 70% PP, vs 100% for lctitan.

Below 5 can buy again i think.

Interesting, results is a little better than expected.

Still i think (or hope, its hard to distinguish), that this will be the last round of massive maintenance capex for EURO5 and 4M etc.

That profit number sounds about right, have not studied deeper yet, so busyyyyy

Hahahaha.

How i wish i am an retiree, so that i can layan Phillip comments day and night. It sounds so fun.

====
Icon8888 He used to be Philips I Hope You Learn Something From Me Today
23/02/2020 1:32 PM

Phillip ah,

If you think QL can grow earnings per share by around 22% per year for the next 15 years. And lets say you value a company (with similar capital structures) that can grow 10% per year for the next 15 years at say 10 PE.

QL would be worth 50 PE.

Now, extraordinary claims require extraordinary proofs.

Thrill us with your acumen and educate us blind men, by sharing your research on this company, that you feel should be valued higher than Berkshire Hathaway, and even Google, Facebook, Apple etc.

Calvin,

To brush Netx, Opcom and Redtone with the same stroke is a bit of stretch, at this price Gkent is actually no bad, whether or not its one of the best opportunities on the market, depends on the person's options i guess.

so if tun m resign, net x will crater?

Please lah Calvin, your post lately are very unbecoming and only serve to fry markets and fool waterfish.

I don't think so, where do you see it? thanks.

===
Gidstock Choivo, the allowance for impairment loss on receivables actually increases 21% as compared to revenue increase of 8%. This allowance is acceptable as their lending is mainly to civil workers and repayment is done through salary deduction. Mbsb and Aeoncr might be their closest peer but there is still difference in the business nature between those companies.
19/02/2020 10:34 AM

This company is doing so well, im almost scared tbh. I rebought a small position the other day.

Its interesting that despite doing more business, their allowance actually fell a little. That is honestly a little odd.

Given the current accounting standards, you have more leeway to determine your allowance amounts as management. I won't place too much weight on their profit figures until the auditors finish their audit in Q4.

It appears from this result, rcecap and aeoncr are projecting completely different things when it comes to economic outlook.

The auditors may ask them to be more pessimistic in projecting their economic outlook and ask them to take up additional allowances.

Just so it is clear here, in case they are some who bought off my research.

I am actually expecting a small loss for Q4, from inventories being revalued at NRV. Would be happy to be proven wrong though.

My mom stopped using cheques, haha this should setoff the future earnings from the CRM abit, still a pretty decent company, but i think these days i can find better.

Lol i sold the bulk of my position and only kept 35%.

For investing purposes, i digress, but lets leave it for another time.


===
Posted by Panorama1 > Feb 17, 2020 9:20 PM | Report Abuse

Agreed. Petron is definitely a better company but HY at < 3.5 was definitely too difficult to resist.

This mainly because most retailers also know the word PE.