COMING !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Chun Chun Call Calvin Tan goes to promote HLT (loss making company) nowadays !! :(

After finished frying glove big 4 , small 4, cheat 4 etc ....
All hot money is coming to baby glove play Ice cream ... FOR SURE !!!

Reproduced the HL Research for your reading !!
Fund manager is coming to fry liao !! !!

HL Research

Author: HL Research | Latest post: Mon, 20 Jul 2020, 8:44 AM

Investment research on growth stocks.

Disclaimer:

Please note that the views, thoughts, and opinions expressed belong solely to the author, and not necessarily to the author's employer, organization, committee or other group or individual. None of the posts written on this blog constitute a buy or sell call.

Blog Headlines (by Date) Blog Index
ESCERAM: Beneficiary of the glove boom
Author: HL Research | Publish date: Mon, 20 Jul 2020, 8:44 AM

After a few years of poor returns for the KLCI, Malaysian investors are now seeing an unprecedented once-in-a-lifetime opportunity with the glove boom. Our investors at a glance:

Experienced retail investors would have already taken advantage to make back their 2018-2019 losses and shift their funds away from growth-stagnant "value" stocks.
Day trader uncles enjoying the volatility - 10%-20% swings almost on a weekly basis.
Fund managers and investment banks finally buying in into glove companies despite lofty valuations, entering late and influenced by FOMO.
Fish sellers, chicken rice sellers, college students, etc. are opening brokerage accounts as we speak to buy in.
There is a wise saying by a guy named David Tong / WealthArchitectToU, "Don't chase high ah." I am inclined to agree.

Nevertheless there looks to be a major opportunity in ES Ceramics Technology (KLSE: ESCERAM (0100) ), based on the fact that it's current price level is undemanding relative to the glove boom beneficiaries.

It follows an almost similar price trend to the big glove players although not a glove manufacturer itself.

And most importantly, SHOWS CONSECUTIVE PROFIT GROWTH and FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

(These are two key factors in an upward price trend, especially in the KLCI).


Some background:
You can read up all about their business on their corporate website and on i3investor. To summarize, their main business is in manufacturing glove formers for the glove industry.

https://www.esceramics.com.my/

When do glove companies need glove formers? Well, when they embark on an expansion of course.

Valuation
I would not get too caught up in the numbers, although it is pertinent to verify its fundamentals.

They have no debt
Relatively cash rich at ~RM20mil
PE of 30 (very good for a company primed for growth)
Profit margin between 7%-11%
Right, let's move on to the growth story.

A brief history of H1N1:
During the H1N1 Swine flu pandemic, ESCERAM experienced 4 consecutive quarters of stable profit growth from Apr 2009 - Apr 2010. This period of revenue and profit growth for the company correlated with that of TOP GLOVE and SUPERMAX.

ESCERAM:

TOPGLOVE:

SUPERMAX:

The correlation above is very promising. We are talking about a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity not only for glove makers, but also for those who have a stake in the game like ESCERAM.

Where is the growth?
We know that all the major glove companies in Malaysia, Top Glove, Supermax and Comfort Gloves, are embarking on production lines expansion in order to meet the worldwide demand. ESCERAM is perfectly positioned to take advantage of this opportunity.

Nevertheless what really interests me is its business in Thailand, where it comprises 60% of the groups revenue, and had achieved 48% growth in FY2019. While Malaysians are gloating "Malaysia Boleh" because of their supposed moat in the glove industry, in reality Thailand also is a major producer and is the world's largest rubber producer, hence they enjoy the low manufacturing costs as well.

Below is an extract from ESCERAM's 2019 annual report:

The Thai business has essentially fueled 4 quarters of consecutive revenue and profit growth. Malaysia biz is good, but the Thai biz has been a game changer.

I struggled to find out who are ESCERAM's major customers / paymasters in Thailand. There are some rumours that one of them might be Sri Trang.

If you don't know who Sri Trang is, they are Thailand's largest glove manufacturer:
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/sri-trang-gloves-surges-first-thai-listing-outbreak

Despite the unknowns, what we do know is that ESCERAM’s Thai factory is located in Sadao City in the southern Songkhla province, which coincidentally is where the big three of Thailand Gloves are located (Sri Trang, Mercator Medical Thailand and Hycare International). All of these companies factories are within a 20km radius.

Verdict:
At 54 sen, it still has plenty of legs to run considering the exponential growth it is about to undergo. The industry is going through an unprecedented phase; how well ESCERAM does entirely depends on whether their management can make the right moves in an almost perfect setting.

FYI: 4Q2020 report is projected to be released in the last week of July.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/HLresearchblog/2020-07-20-story-h1510631202-ESCERAM_Beneficiary_of_the_glove_boom.jsp

Hong Leong Research just made a write up on Ice Cream !!
YES !! Time to Top Up and Vroom Vroom Vroom >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

my previous research :-

"My future PE calculation :-
If a year annualized profit = 4 ct (realistic as per their best 4Q total in 2016), and net cash of 10ct per share (excluding from PER computation) ,
PE = 20 (conservative) , fair value = 80ct + 10ct = 0.90
PE = 30 , fair value = 1.20 + 10ct = 1.30
PE = 40, fair value = 1.60 + 10ct = 1.70

remember, this is a company with proven track records for accurate estimate, unlike those loss-making company you just can only fantasize their profit & PE !!

f they can deliver 5ct EPS, (also likely as higher demand than last time round) :-
PE = 20, fair value = 1.00 + 10ct = 1.10
PE = 30, value = 1.50 +10ct = 1.60
PE = 40, value = 2.00 + 10ct = 2.10

From the lowest of 0.90 to highest of 2.10 as valuation, divided by 2 => 1.50 as median fair value "

LKL :- suppliers of mainly medical beds and health care accessories, their products can be produced all over the world, losses reporting for past 2 years, last 4 Q total loss = -0.37 (horrible, almost wipe out their NTA !) "

And many other over-hyped companies like HLT ! They didn't perform with good results previous years ! Not with minor losses but huge lossess that almost wipe out their NTA into PN17 !!

LKL & HLT keep showing huge loss or tiny profit .... CEO like to talk cock to cheat newbies to buy into their company and major shareholders start dumping shares !!
Ice cream, although have a "mouth-holding-gold" CEO, but keep showing profit Q after Q with net cash 20 mil !
which one would you choose ??

Many times like that already ! Jia Lat !!

YESSSSSSSS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The CEO's mouth is holding tight with gold, so it left to minority shareholders to do the promoting & publicity !!
Haiz .....

"ES Ceramics Technology Bhd manufactures and distributes ceramic hand formers. Its products offerings include examination formers, surgical formers, household formers, and breatings bag and balloon. Its formers are for continuous industrial use under heavy-duty conditions, to withstand the complex processes involving heat and chemicals to produce gloves.



ES Ceramics currently running full capacity at both manufacturing plants in Ipoh Malaysia and Thailand to meet the high demand from Glove Companies. This can be shown in Q3 2020 (Dec 2019 – Feb 2020) results which improvement in Sales and Profit compared to Q3 2019. Sales and Profit for Q4 2020 is slightly better than Q4 2019 due to closure of plant during the MCO.



For Q1 2021 (Jun – Aug 2020), the results will definitely improve as the Company running at full capacity. Both manufacturing plants have an outstanding order book of more than 1 million pieces of glove formers. The Company has increase the ASP as a results of high demand from glove companies.



Both Luxchem and Texchem linked to glove companies have moved recently. WATCH OUT ES Ceramic. "

All glove makers , big 4 or small 4, even some unscrupulous outsiders planning to capitalize to take over glove factory ... can’t wait to talk to media or release announcements everyday to spur up their share price !
Ice cream silent and indifferent attitude that really annoying me !
At this glove market boom time, the CEO just need to open his golden mouth and say some positive thing about this co prospect , the price will easily shoot up to RM1 already !!
Haiz !

the problem is the lazy attitude of the management !
They just want to collect fixed and ordinary salary & dividend and slow to expand !
Imagine, they have 20 mil in cash, their Hatyai factory have big space of land and can easily double their capacity to increase their sales by double !
Every glove makers in this region, malaysia & thailand, are busy working OT 24 hrs a day to spoil off their glove formers & ... hungry for more glove formers for their aggressively expanding output capacity ! Ice cream still too slow to act ? WTF !
Remember there are only 2 big size glove-former maker in malaysia, they should be smart enough to capitalize on that !!
Tonnes of money waiting for them to make also lazy to make ? Apalah ini ??

The CEO is real idiot !
During this glove boom time, he still refused to make money out of it ??
At least to expand production capacity to produce more sales !!
Disappointed with their "tidak apa" attitude, we shall attend the AGM and ask the CEO to resign and appoint somebody young and aggressive to lead the ship !!
Wong FooK LIn, please resign !!

Hopefully this Wong Fook Lin doesn't sell any share before end July (reposting of QR) !
Otherwise the share price might collapse !!
If he buys some more to support, then it will be like feeding vaigra to the share price !!!

The only hope is during their AGM, normally fixed end of September, hope the big bosses can say sth positive to boost the share price !!
They have been very facking quiet !!

many sharks hiding in this counter one loh !!!!

kariwong9394 ......

Always remember Buy Low, Sell High....

Always remember Buy Low, Sell High....

Always remember Buy Low, Sell High....


买卖自负 ...买卖自负 ...买卖自负 ...
06/07/2020 3:52 PM

It is easy to say that do !
How high is HIGH ?
How low is LOW ??
LOL

The increase of the selling does not cost the company anything. It is pure profit.

To be safe I cannot assume Comfort to double its selling price in the next quarter but it can gradually increase to double its selling price in the 4th quarter. In addition, I must consider the additional tax involved.

Assuming 100% minus 30% tax = 70% for 3 quarters. That is 23% per quarter.

1st quarter sale Rm 152 million, profit Rm 16.34 million

2nd quarter sale increases 23% of Rm 152 = Rm 35 million; profit Rm 16.34 million + Rm 35 million = Rm 51.3 million

3rd quarter profit Rm 51.3 + Rm 35 million = Rm 86.3 million.

4th quarter profit Rm 86.3 million + Rm 35 million = Rm 121.3 million.

Total for the year profit Rm 275.3 million

Total issued shares 580 million

EPS 47 sen

Based on P/E 20 target price Rm 9.40

Based on P/E 15 target price Rm 7.05

Based on P/E 10 target price Rm 4.70

This "glove hari cut" crazy already lah !
Everyday promote top glove desperately like a person obsessed ! LOL

For long & medium term investors, Just sit tight tight and enjoy the fruit lah !!
I will hold until i read their next Q report and see what the CEO says regarding the prospect !

Do not let your emotions drive your investing
To avoid the downside in investing, investors must stop dwelling on the daily fluctuations of their stocks. Stocks will rise and fall daily and hourly, but in the long term, they have always risen in value.

Fear is the enemy of investing because it makes you dump your stocks meant for long-term investment when the market is down. It also keeps you from taking advantage of rare “fire sale” opportunities. The best time to invest in stocks is when the herd panics and prices plummet.

On the other hand, some investors sit on the side-lines in the early stages of market upturns out of fear then start to feel the fear of missing out when the market shoots up and they jump in when the stock price has risen a lot. Greed then comes in. By then, much of the bull market may have passed entirely, and they have bought the stocks at high price, ready to be corrected in price.

Anger and frustration can make you dump fundamentally sound investments just because you get tired of waiting for them to show progress in stock price. Yet overreacting in frustration and impatience often robs you of your best investments and ideas.

Some investors are emotionally attached to specific stocks and fall in love with them, ignoring their changing fundamentals. They remain often biased on their investing decision and are reluctant to sell when fundamentals clearly deteriorate, and as a result, lost big in their investment.

Conclusions

Most people think about how to make big money in the stock market, ignoring risks and the probability of losing big in the stock market. They tend to follow stock tips and rumours and the herd mentality, and highly affected by emotions in investing. As a result, most of them lost money, many of them lost a lot of money.

Recognising the above short coming, and acquiring some investment knowledge and experience, and do some homework themselves will help to mitigate the problems and improve the outcome of the long-term return of their stock investment.

K C Chong

Share this

Do not let your emotions drive your investing
To avoid the downside in investing, investors must stop dwelling on the daily fluctuations of their stocks. Stocks will rise and fall daily and hourly, but in the long term, they have always risen in value.

Fear is the enemy of investing because it makes you dump your stocks meant for long-term investment when the market is down. It also keeps you from taking advantage of rare “fire sale” opportunities. The best time to invest in stocks is when the herd panics and prices plummet.

On the other hand, some investors sit on the side-lines in the early stages of market upturns out of fear then start to feel the fear of missing out when the market shoots up and they jump in when the stock price has risen a lot. Greed then comes in. By then, much of the bull market may have passed entirely, and they have bought the stocks at high price, ready to be corrected in price.

Anger and frustration can make you dump fundamentally sound investments just because you get tired of waiting for them to show progress in stock price. Yet overreacting in frustration and impatience often robs you of your best investments and ideas.

Some investors are emotionally attached to specific stocks and fall in love with them, ignoring their changing fundamentals. They remain often biased on their investing decision and are reluctant to sell when fundamentals clearly deteriorate, and as a result, lost big in their investment.

Conclusions

Most people think about how to make big money in the stock market, ignoring risks and the probability of losing big in the stock market. They tend to follow stock tips and rumours and the herd mentality, and highly affected by emotions in investing. As a result, most of them lost money, many of them lost a lot of money.

Recognising the above short coming, and acquiring some investment knowledge and experience, and do some homework themselves will help to mitigate the problems and improve the outcome of the long-term return of their stock investment.

K C Chong

Share this

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/what-charts-say-about-glove-rally

I think the lowest the price can go is RM10.00 in these 1-2 months time !
profit taking by those who bought cheap earlier or those "kena" margin call etc ...
Long term perspective :- 1 -2 years, RM25 sure no problem !
The only problem is :- how many of you have the PATIENCE to wait that long ??

If price drop to RM4.00, i will mortgage all my asset to SAI LANG all in already loh !!

Just need to be patient lah !
Glove counters have been running too drastically for the past 2 months, time to take a rest !
June - July will be correction time for those super-runners !
It is normal for a share market.
Just switch off your trading screen and come back in 2 months time !!

Just need to be patient lah !
Glove counters have been running too drastically for the past 2 months, time to take a rest !
June - July will be correction time for those super-runners !
Just switch off your trading screen and come back in 2 months time !!

GLOVE shareholders should monitor their own EMOTION fact & data ! LOL !

Share market MUST go UP Down Up down one lah !!
If the price keeps going up , how can the sharks make money ??

I queue BUY at RM10.00 ... for the next 2 weeks !

"So, please stop being greedy and learn how not to lose money instead. Case in point: avoid horrible management."
I think this is Philip's gist of advice to you ! His words sometimes can be harsh but with good intention to shake you up !
No point fighting with the corrupt / biased / flaw systems (especially in Malaysia, those systems are meant to make those tycoons rich !), just need to be extra cautious with the management ! If the good businesses are run by dishonest conmen, you will never be fairly rewarded, so avoid at all costs !
I think even KYY was conned by Xinquan after visiting their factories in China and checking with his relative who worked as their auditors !!

p/s :- You should change your nickname from "Bursa master" to "Bursa pupil" !

Market did not overlook ! Market simply can't trust their account reports with huge cash !
You must be a newest newbie in Bursa ,let me teach you one good lesson :- whenever you see a red chip china based company in bursa, RUN FOR YOUR LIFE and don't be cheated by their accounting !
Google "Xinquan", "Msports" (the first 2 tai koh china conman's company in Bursa) and research then you know what I mean !
Even our i3 stock god KYY was conned by Xinquan !! and many many more victims ....

Today raise TP, next week margin call reduce to 50% of market price !
Be careful loh !

according to many stock guru, WTK is a "value trap" like BJCorp , FACB etc ....

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/KLSETA/2020-06-10-story-h1508727365-Stock_Watch_10th_16th_Jun_20_Esceram_Undiscovered_GEM_Glove_theme_play_.jsp

Stock Watch 10th- 16th Jun’20 Esceram –Undiscovered GEM(Glove theme play)

0.91 Sen = RM0.0091
Thank you math genius !

To reach target price RM1 , the PE is 110 !
No wonder so many idiots giving out money in Bursa nowadays !

amongst all O&G shares, this counter is the most neglected one !
The only hope is, crude oil price stable to USD60, then the share price can only UP !!

this stock up bit by bit one .... by end June, sure will touch 30 cent !
If crude oil stable back to USD60 +, then share price might be back to 50cent plus before bearish mood in March !

I can guarantee you this :-
Once all Oil & Gas share prices go up in the future, all f* king stupid analysts will queueing up to UP their TP more or less close to share price with "twist and turn" funny stupid stories like , how many percent of sum of parts lah, PE lah, percent of NTA lah .... up to them to manipulate and write as they like !!
Like that a monkey also know how to write lah !!
08/06/2020 12:26 PM

I can guarantee you this :-
Once all Oil & Gas share prices go up in the future, all f* king stupid analysts will queueing up to UP their TP more or less close to share price with "twist and turn" funny stupid stories like , how many percent of sum of parts lah, PE lah, percent of NTA lah .... up to them to manipulate and write as they like !!
Like that a monkey also know how to write lah !!

Philip is a new guru in i3 forum nowadays !

I really learned a lot and have been inspired by the approach & philosophy of uncle Philip !
Philip meant "phil-osophy " ? LOL

I like this saying :-
(imagine you are researching the company under the order of saudi arabia's king, any error in research will get you beheaded ! hahaha !)

Please write more ! Thank you

Only dig out your share from your freezer when these things happen :-
1. the stock is over value (eg. shoot up to crazy price of 1.50 !)
2. the glove industry shows sign of down trend (vaccine has been approved for mass usage)
3. big changes in the fundamental of the company (the management want to change business or diversify to losing business or do sth stupid !)
4. QR report showing weak result and prospect is bleak ! (eg. too many players in the same industry fighting for business and become unhealthy competition !)

Yes ! When Ice cream 's price trading so volatile UP & Down, up & down every monute, the only thing I did was to switch off my trading screen and go to do sth else !
As i said, dump the Ice Cream into your freezer, ignore the market noices , presevere with patient for value investing !!
That's how you made huge money !!

Through out the years, that is what I learned from F* king stupid analysts :-
When stock price go up, they will shift their TP up to be close to the actual price,
when stock price go down, they will shirt their TP down to be near the actual price !
That's how they make a living !
If they are so good, they wouldn't have been employed by banks as analysts lah !! They should have invested the market by themselves ! They are the big fraud in investment industry !!

I3 stock God KYY just published in his blog that glove has yet to reach their peak , supported by stock guru OTB !
Meaning glove theme still got some time to play around ! Why worry ?