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2016-02-17 11:14 | Report Abuse
Aemulus did really badly this quarter because their 1Q2016 is the Sept to Dec period which has coincided with the smartphone market posting the worst results in the past few years (Apple and Samsung posting very weak sales growth).
Nevertheless, the fundamentals still remain intact. Very good R&D team that has come up with globally competitive products (major customers are Avago and Skyworks, 2 out of 3 of the world's biggest RF chip producers accounting for 90% of global market share http://247wallst.com/technology-3/2015/03/24/merrill-lynch-says-buy-these-3-top-radio-frequency-chip-stocks/) and their spending on the R&D is ramping up (CIMB reports that they plan to add another 15 to their staff of 100) in order to beef up their R&D team for the projects to come.
Also, they have worked closely with Avago to develop testers for cloud computing chips (CIMB Report). This type of relationship with such a major global player is invaluable and a high barrier to entry for other players. It is a vote of confidence of Aemulus capability to compete and it secures Avago as a customer as it expands its cloud computing business.
The semiconductor testing industry is an ideas and R&D game with the winner being the highest efficiency product (lowest cost of test). This continued focus on R&D will allow them to produce consistently quality products (http://www.aemulus.com/products) that will put them in very good position to capture the upside when the semiconductor cycle turns.
Can they weather a weak market? I think they can because they have a very healthy balance sheet. They just did an IPO and they have cash on hand - 28 mil in 1Q2016 down from 33 mil with hardly any debt at all (RM0.1 mil). And this coming quarter will probably be much better because smartphone production ramps up again in anticipation for the new releases in 3Q2016 (Apple will release iphone 7 this year).
In addition to this short analysis, Aemulus has just begin moving into Taiwan and Japan (CIMB Initiation Report), putting them in good position to gain more sales in the short term and establishing themselves here early in the downcycle will allow them to capture the upcycle given that they will alrdy have been in these countries awhile when the cycle turns.
There has been some rumours that the owners are selling and getting out but if you read their story, these guys are entrepreneurs who came out of secure jobs to build this business from scratch to what it is now for the past 10 years. It is unlikely that given the potential of their company, they will get out and leave this business behind. Also, do note that Teak Capital and Khazanah were former and current investors (Teak's shareholding has fallen below 5% probably because their fund's timeframe is hitting maturity http://www.dealstreetasia.com/stories/exclusive-teak-capital-to-stay-invested-in-aemulus-post-ipo-shares-subscribed-by-blue-chip-funds-11054/). These guys are big boys and professionals who have done their due dilligence.
This is a long term growth company (3-5 years) that still has a long ways to go. Aemulus themselves have said they want long term investors (http://www.bfm.my/breakfast-grille-ng-sang-beng-aemulus.html)
It would be nice though if some of us have access to management to ask questions or at least have some corporate disclosure in quarterly and annual reports for us retail investors. But in the meantime, we'll have to reply on research house reports.
Anyone has access to AffinHwang research on Aemulus? Please let me know, I can exchange CIMB reports. I'm also trying to get a better understanding into other companies that sell ATE in Msia (Virtrox, Elsoft, MMSV, KESM) so any help and discussion of ideas and info is welcome.
Blog: Bidding goodbye to Teo Seng
2016-02-24 22:30 | Report Abuse
Hi Shinado, do check out Aemulus, high growth company for the next 2-3 years.
Also, any thoughts on the property sector? Time to buy to gain most of the upswing?