FY14-16F CPO ASP of RM2,366/ RM2,486/ RM2,609
HDBS uses the above assumption in arriving at the TP 5.40 .. simpan bullet for re-rating?

hi bsngpg .. just saw your 'gatekeeper' message. if you know mandarin ..
在股市, 先知先覺賺大錢, 後知後覺賺小錢, 不知不覺賺不到錢!

winwin, I am not from the management.

Rising CPO yield! with more trees approaching maturity and prime age.
Rising CPO price! price recovery
HDBS ... Y14-16F FFB production of 272k MT/ 341k MT/ 382k MT

With this age profile, the CPO yield of 3.5 mt/ha achieved in FY13 was amazing!

planting schedule
Year/ HA/ Age/ Status
2008/ 3,80/0 5/ mature
2009/ 5,200/ 4/ mature
2010/ 4,300/ 3/ mature
2011/ 1,100/ 2/ immature
Total 14,400 ha
Weighted average age : 3.81

hor say liao! lcng123

chinesetea..you ask a relevant question.
But you hardly get wrong with land. More so with MKH where this company has been profitable for the past 25 years.
My investments actually are skewed towards land based businesses.

10 Stocks to watch in 2014--The Star Biz
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/sharethenews/44333.jsp

Just to share ..
He is a brilliant investor. Has shares portfolio worth 30 mil and annual dividend income of 1 to 2 mil. In property you have RPGT but in stock market it is no tax.

创国内“裸捐”做慈善第一人
陈凯希也是海鸥集团董事经理，他昨晚出席雪州老友联谊会晚宴致词时宣布此事。
他今日受《南洋商报》询问时再补充，本身个人名义下拥有的股票目前价值超过3000万令吉，当他逝世后这些股票的价值是否会更高或较低，目前是未知数。此外，他的公积金数额也超过100万令吉。
他说，日后全数捐出的总额将有多少目前难以准确计算，只能够确定股票将是最大笔数目。
陈凯希说，在有生之年仍会如目前一样，每年把名下股票分红约100万至200万令吉全部捐献予需要的团体。
“我是从2010年开始这么做，把所得悉数捐献岀来，因为我觉得这是非常有意义的事。”
他周三晚在致词宣布此事时说，希望这项宣布将可起着抛砖引玉作用，鼓励更多人响应善举，让更多有需要帮助的机构和团体受惠。

And the land value will only rise and rise .. population growth, better infrastructure (road and MRT) and inflation factors.

Another perspective: Market value of the land (for property business ONLY) already exceeds 800 mil. This easily made up 80% of the maket value of MKH.

Project Location/Land acre/RMpsf/Market value RMm
Kajang 2 Kajang/ 220 FH/ 25/ 234.1
Hill Park Shah Alam Puncak Alam/ 558 LH/ 6.7/ 159.1
MKH Avenue I Kajang city/ 3 LH/ 120/ 15.3
MKH Avenue II Kajang city/ 15 LH/ 80/ 51.1
Pelangi Heights Pajam/ 45 FH/ 10/ 19.2
Hill Park Homes 3 Semenyih/ 28 FH/ 20/ 23.8
Kajang East Semenyih/ 138 FH/ 20/ 117.5
Hill Park Homes 4 Semenyih/ 75 FH/ 20/ 63.8
Saville@Kajang Kajang city/ 6 FH/ 60/ 15.3
MKH World Serdang/ 12 FH/ 150/ 76.6
MKH City Kajang city/ 6 LH/ 120/ 30.6

Pick up interest in the warrants .. good way to leverage the potential of MKH.

AK the 2.90 per share only for plantation assets. If the property business is included, TP 5.4 for MKH according to DBS.

DBS says plantation asset is worth 2.90 per share or 1 bil .. look at the share price now.

If this stands, MKH's property assets and others have no value.

HwandDBS says plantation is worth 1 bil or 2.9 RM/share based on DCF. This matches what IOI paid for its stake in Unico.

Still not missing the boat. With more future plantation profit, its share price will mirror Fima Corp's trend. Happy investing!

Hi, anyone can share HwangDBS research report.

I'm refering to kajang 2 progress. It is a project with highest GDV of 2.6 bil. Ada apa update?

Ya. Macam mana kajang 2 progress?

I think can leverage .. I am buying the warrants. :)

At RM5.40 the market cap of MKH will be around RM1.7 bil. The plantation 15,000 ha is already worth more than RM1 bil (RM70k per mature ha).

EPS should be more than 40 sen this year and with historical PE of more than 8 .. TP 3.60
Happy investing and happy new year!

To contact the reporter on this story: Jeanette Rodrigues in Mumbai at jrodrigues26@bloomberg.net
By Jeanette Rodrigues Dec 26, 2013 1:50 PM GMT+0800

Deutsche Bank Sees Asian Comeback as Pimco Positive

Taiwan’s dollar and the Indonesian rupiah are forecast to lead a recovery in Asian currencies next year as attention shifts to the region’s growth potential and away from the reduction in U.S. monetary stimulus.

The Taiwanese currency will climb 2.4 percent by end-2014, while the rupiah will start reversing this year’s 20 percent loss by rising 1.7 percent, Bloomberg surveys of at least 18 analysts show. South Korea’s won is seen up 1.8 percent, China’s yuan 1.4 percent and the Thai baht 1.1 percent. The forecasts point to a rebound from the Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index (ADXY)’s 2.2 percent drop this year, its biggest since 2008.

Taiwan’s potential export gains from a global economic pickup and Indonesia’s yield advantage over most of Asia are adding to the appeal of their currencies as Deutsche Bank AG, the world’s biggest foreign-exchange trader, says the region offers the best growth prospects in 2014. The Federal Reserve’s decision last week to start cutting its monthly bond buying has mostly been priced into Asian exchange rates, setting the stage for advances, Societe Generale SA said.

“We haven’t seen any toxic reaction to the Fed statement, there’s been no bloodbath,” Benoit Anne, the London-based head of emerging-market strategy at SocGen, said in a Dec. 20 phone interview. “When investors come back to work in January, they’re going to realize there’s a huge window of opportunity to go long emerging-market assets.”

Pimco’s Optimism

Pacific Investment Management Co., the world’s largest manager of bond funds, and Deutsche Bank say Asia will receive a boost from a recovery in developed markets next year. The region’s emerging economies will grow 6.5 percent in 2014, outpacing the 5.1 percent expansion of developing nations around the world and 2 percent for advanced countries, the Washington-based International Monetary Fund forecast in October.

Asian currencies will hand investors a 2 percent return in 2014, while counterparts in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region will gain 4.5 percent and Latin America’s will lose 1 percent, Deutsche Bank predicts.

“Emerging markets are maturing,” Deutsche Bank analysts including New York-based Drausio Giacomelli, wrote in a Dec. 19 report. For growth, “Asia remains best placed.”

The Taiwanese dollar will strengthen to NT$29.3 by the end of next year, according to the median of 18 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg, after reaching a four-month low of NT$30.06 yesterday. The currency has lost 3.2 percent this year, its biggest decline since it fell 5.7 percent in 2001.

Indonesian Rupiah

The rupiah, this year’s worst performer among 12 Asian peers tracked by Bloomberg, will climb to 12,000 per dollar by the end of 2014, from 12,200, a separate survey predicts. The currency tumbled to a five-year low of 12,260 on Dec. 23.

China’s yuan and the South Korean won will probably perform better than peers in coming months, while the outlook for Malaysia’s ringgit is improving, according to Manik Narain, an emerging-market strategist at UBS AG.

Concerns remain about India’s rupee, which fell to a record low of 68.845 per dollar in August, and the rupiah, he said. The rupee will end next year at 62 per dollar, from 61.98 today, according to another poll.

With the exception of China and South Korea, “we are not forecasting foreign-exchange appreciation in Asia,” London-based Narain said in a Dec. 20 phone interview. “We are particularly worried about India and Indonesia still.”

India and Indonesia will be the only nations among Asia’s 10 biggest economies to run current-account deficits in 2014, Deutsche Bank estimated in report dated Dec. 19.

lcng .. Similar to CPO prices in Malaysia, when you have weaker local currency the CPO will adjust higher to mitigate the impact. IDR/MYR weakened by 4% but CPO price is higher by 8% in Q4 2013.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
A house issued TP 3.05
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kenangaresearch/43925.jsp

MKH pays to pay lesser on borrwoings. I'm thinking to convert the warrant .. Happy investing!

Internet download speed slower than Brunei, Vietnam and Thailand. What has MCMC been doing?
We deserve better services from Celcom, Maxis and DIGI.

我們不如汶萊和 泰国 .. 新加坡沒話講. (以下南洋商报主要版)

吉隆坡30日讯）互联网监测机构Speedtest.net昨日发布的全球宽频下载速率报告称，香港以71.91Mbps高居榜首，新加坡则以53.11Mbps，排第二位。

马来西亚排名第117，宽频下载速率是4.95Mbps，相较于一些亚洲国家，台湾排名第11位（37.71Mbps），中国第43位（16Mbps），泰国第56位（13.24Mbps），越南第57位（12.86Mbps），汶莱第108位（5.71Mbps），印尼第151位（3.34Mbps）及菲律宾第163位（2.90Mbps）。

古巴垫后Speedtest报告显示，排名榜末的是古巴（第186位，0.84Mbps）。

出人意料的是，美国仅以20.77Mbps的宽频下载速率在全球排名第31位。

Speedtest.net称，该公司使用基于Web的网络诊断应用来进行宽频测试，统计日期是2011年5月30日至2013年11月28日，并统计了100多万份测试结果。

This news should be positive to Instacom and OCK.
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/11/29/MCMC-moving-in-right-direction.aspx

Total assets increased to RM1.8 billion from RM1.4 billion, but interest expense dropped 21% to RM17 million from RM21 million. That shows operating cash flow capability of the company.

Alex Chen is bullish so do I..

lcng .. from your analysis eps should climb more than 40 sen next year. This company has been historically accorded with PE 8. Will anyinvestment bank tag TP of RM3.60 (45 x 8)?

bsngpg .. I think it is more of an accounting issue here. Alex Chen does not care about accounting. If you ask me, Q3 should have accounted for some of the forex loss. How can the loss only appeared in Q4, not logical.

MKh shows typical plantation company symptom .. when USD up, profits are hit as they borrow in USD. I guess it is just one of the business risks.
Look at MKH's earnings potential and capacity. MKH generated operating cash flow which was 5.7 times more than last year or RM109 million. This enabled them to substantially finance the investing activities amounted to close to RM200 million. In fact its gearing has dropped from 63% to 55%. I guess MKH is down to earth for not proposing any dividend.
Now MKH's shares are being traded below its NTA of RM2.72 per share.

4Q results out! Plantation made losses. Operating cash flow was strong. No dividend proposed.

Shareholders need fund to convert the warrants .. higher dividend may help and in fact could reduce MKH's borrowing cost if shareholders buy into prospects of the company.

MKH's investment property stood at RM250 million. If 10% increase in market value, EPS will be enhanced by 7 sen.

With plantation, earnings is now more transparent and sustainable. I believe they also have intention to build its property investment portfolio which will be held for recurring income. Small IOI is in the making ..

Manage to read the Edge's article here .. http://mkhberhad.com/
Best has yet to come .. not only the plantation also the property segment as well.
Happy investing!

thanks lcng123 I can understand the articles.

shrobin thanks .. with CPO price now getting higher, it is going to be bountiful years ahead for MKH. Can't wait to get a copy of the Edge.

Below was extracted from the The Star Saturday. Can someone tell what is the FFB and CPO yield? Thanks

~~ Today, MKH’s oil palm plantations estate is 98% planted or about 15,655ha of total planted area inclusive of road drains and cannals.

MKH says the yield achieved was 29.9% higher than the budgeted yield and it recorded its highest ever yield of 25,996.64 tonnes per ha in September 2013 since the commissioning of the oil mill in October 2011.

Plantation companies usually get their crop in 30 to 36 months after planting but we manage to harvest it in 22 to 24 months. It grows much faster and produces fresh fruit bunches earlier because we are located along the equator where there is a lot of water and sunlight. ~~

But how come .. if like that IOI and KLK only report Malaysia output but not the indonesia estate to Bursa?

They should disclose to Bursa the plantation information voluntarily if not compulsory. Any accountant/consultant can advise?

hmm .. 1.75 was ex the bonus and right issues. its market cap has indeed increased my wealth has also increased. The outcome would be otherwise if hop-on-hop-off scenario.

EPS 2010/12.7sen 2011/14.8 2012/26.0 2013/23.9(3Q)
MKH has historically rewarded its shareholders via Bonus Issue in order to preserve cash.
In view of EPS is likely to be higher next year, will MKH do it again?
But given Public Bank a substantial shareholder which prefers cash, will MKH paying higher dividend?

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kenangaresearch/40756.jsp
Plantation - New USFDA Proposal May Boost CPO Prices

Come on ... IOI paid 1 bil for Unico's 12,700 ha. MKH has 15,000 ha but its market cap. has not reached 1 bil. In term of tree age profile and CPO yield, MKH's yield is to show far better growth rate than Unico.

What is the RI price?