Saw the Slick Touristy Video by Sona....

Nothing New that will convince shareholders of anything except that it must have been a costly production...AUD$$

If price keep dropping......Oil price no longer have an effect on Sona shares....
Decision based on confidence in management capability.

Read the Summary by Gaffney & Cline ;

" However, the economics of the planned infill development drilling at a Proved confidence level requires future prices substantially above current levels, and provides only a limited value contribution. Further the largely fixed-cost nature of the Stag Field's operation means that the cost per barrel to produce the field is above currently prevailing oil prices. Should this level of oil price prevail for any protracted period, there is a risk field operations would have to be prematurely curtailed."

What was Sona Management thinking?
Ever wondered why Santos disposed of Stag at give away price?

Investors Now have to choose between the devil and the deep blue sea!

Investors are Advised to Read the Report by Gaffney Cline and Assoc on NPV workings based on different prognosed Oil Price Scenarios ranging from US30 to US$102 for different years. Note the negative NPV for Scenarios 1 and 2 (i.e prognosed USD30-50 barrel oil price for 2016 and 2017. And so on...).

Note also the Statement by SC:

"the SC’s approval is subject to Sona Petroleum using up to 80% of the amount in its trust account for the purchase of the Stag Oilfield and to finance part of the proposed drilling of additional infill production wells, which the regulator deems as necessary.

According to the SC, the proposed deal would only be commercially viable if the proved plus probable (2P) reserves are produced and immediately result in increased oil production. “Therefore, the infill development (to enhance production) is part and parcel of the proposed acquisition.”

Danger! There's No Support....Price Dropping.

kinfatt999.....You flying in the wrong direction laa

.20 sen Resistance level unbreachable...
Downside on Litigation will reign.

Cut and Run....
Management running out of Options!

Whole thing on LIME has now turned into a Bollywood Story!
Hibiscus should turn into Bollywood Production House!!

Cabut cepat before Armageddon Hits....

Tanjung Rambutan looking for martin555.....He wanna be a pilot that's why APFT

fook87...This counter only busy with litigation sahaja.

Funny Money at Play...
Nothing to do with Sona's Business!!

This Martin555 guy sure gila one....

Kesian Martin555......Gone Case Man!

Investors are supposed to vote based on the technical and economic condition of the Acquisition. The intention of SC is just simply that and nothing more. Remember to call a Spade a Spade.

Proven Reserves are defined based on;

"existing technical and economic conditions"

which, in the case of Sona, is 16 million barrels (2P - Proven + Probable). For some, that may be a Tad too small for an Offshore Field.

In Malaysia, anything below 30 million barrels is considered marginal. PETRONAS have stopped all future service contracts to develop these marginal fields, as they are no longer considered to be commercial.

Sona may not follow the same path as Cliq or Hibiscus...So vote on the facts and not on fancy.

That's Ziyad for you....Stubborn as ever!

If you read the Original release statement by Sona, the 2P (remaining reserves) is only 16 million bbls of oil. If you minus the royalty of 10-12% and subsequent Taxes on Profit (beware Aussie taxes are high!)there will be a likely deficit insufficient to cover for costs.

Management is touting increase of production through spending more drilling new wells. Operational Risk at Stag is moderate to high due to Reservoir depletion, unconsolidated rock, water breakthrough and sand production creating conditions where infill drilling campaigns have become increasingly problematic in the field in recent years.

They have had to use new technology just to set casing to avoid hole instability problems (casing while drilling tech). Perhaps that is why Santos decided to give it away just to get rid of a problem.

coolinvestor..
Analyst have done their evaluation on the QA. see: http://www.nama.com.my/PRINT_NEWS/2016/04/04/20160404_N60_EDG_CR_26_FC_THE~LURE~OF~SONAS~CAPITAL~REPAYMENT.JPG

As far as Stag Field Performance Goes, Expenditure exceed income (see last 4 paragraphs of the above).

Only 2P (Proven + Probable) reserves are used in any Field Economic Evaluation. Those Conservatives may even prefer to only use 1P(Proven).

Your simplistic assesment does not include royalties and taxes due to the Australian Government.

Debate intensifying as everyone trying to minimise their losses...
For those not in control, might as well throw a dice to decide. It will at least give them a fighting chance!

That is the irony of an amateur share trader....He keeps buying and buying as it gets lower and lower when everyone else are gone...ending up being the only person holding the dead horse!

Read the Last 4 Paragraphs in this Edge Report especially 4th before last...

http://www.nama.com.my/PRINT_NEWS/2016/04/04/20160404_N60_EDG_CR_26_FC_THE~LURE~OF~SONAS~CAPITAL~REPAYMENT.JPG

Shareholders caught between the devil and the deep blue sea......

Hedge Funds will come in with heli and rescue them!

Look like no interest even to reach resistance level of 20 sen.

Every risk analyst will tell you that majority of investors will play it safe and opt for "money in the hand" option. It means that they don't mind receiving less rather than risk losing in the longer term.

Hibiscus can no longer expect income from Oil....Now hoping to make money from litigations!
Nothing like waiting for someone else to decide whether they will get free money or not!

This Sona Deal with Stag will go the Same way as Hibiscus deal with 3D Oil on West Seahorse ....KIVd...

These fields are so small they will end up KIV for a long time. Sona just made the deal to buy more time for themselves until they get their act together!

In the meantime, Sona Shareholders will end up in the Twilight Zone like Hibiscus shareholders

So You think Those Foreign Hedge Funds are so stupid they cannot see that?!!

Speculator's Bugaboo Aside....

Senior Management of Sona all former Petronas Staff...

When oil price was about $90/bbl Petronas considered any field able to recover 30 Mill BBls or less to be marginal. Stag has about half of that leftover by Santos (i.e. 16 Mill Bbl). How come these ex Petronas fellers consider the stag field to be viable especially when current oil price is $38/bbl (cf $90)?

Sona should make available to brokers and shareholders the reports by "experts" on this Stag Deal so they can make an educated decision and not guess based on what management says!

All these SPACS buying Oil Fields that are nearly past their Economic Limit.

Looks Like Resistnce level seems to remain consistently at 0.20 sen. will this resistance level be broken?

It will become next Oil Company beat the SPACs Laaa.

Martin555 you wrong APFT gown Oil Service company doing well what?

How much shares Faruk Family have left? Anyone knows?

Advisers such as RPS will basically confirm the amount of oil remaining in a Field and production capabilities.

No Adviser will guarantee that purchaser will make money from the purchase (if it does so it will be subject to legal action by purchaser if he fails to make money!). The same goes for pwC.

Hibiscus should allow the public and brokers access to these adviser reports so that they can make a proper evaluation of the purchase.

And don't forget to pay Income Taxes to British Govt for Anasuria Lor...

bunga_raya...You tadak baca Hibiscus Presentation ke?

Run Production at 3,200 bbls per day. This is not profit just production.

Lees payment of Royalty to British Govt and Payment to Petrofac for running operations left only small amount...can cover payment hutang or not?

Shell & Co disposed of Anasuria as the field is approaching its economic limit....

For those SPAC Companies who thinks that buying an oilfield is akin to buying shoes.. always keep in mind that a "retiring" oilfield has its economic limit..What is an economic limit?

"The economic limit is the level of production rate (in barrel oil per day) where the net cash flow of the field equals zero. The continued production beyond this point will cause economic loss."

kinfatt999....GOTCHA!

Hebat nya "Oil Company" yang saham harga 20 sen. At least better than associate company 3D Oil 3sen

This Counter Playing Hide and Seek with Oil Price!

When excitement overwhelms the hopefuls....everybody forgets about the Wildcard...SHALE OILERS

Like They say...If you hutang duit make sure it is huge humungous hutang.. then those whom you hutang as well as the banks will bend over backwards to stop you from going bust! Shareholders will get nothing.
So? What is our SC Doing?

Fam Jenny...bunga raya is right. They may not ask money from shareholders.. but with only US2 miilion in hand and no bank will lend them money...They will have to borrow from Along!

Icon8
is it Nett 50% share?

Have you built in the State (UK Govt) take of 33+% from the production? Or have you? since the nett share in your calculations is 2000 and not 4000?

How much is the production costs (i.e. Petrofac Monthly production costs and fee paid in the Service Contract)?

If Nett share means total field production 8,000 barrels per day?

Ivan9511...You Mean Plan B? Ohhh That's buying another Oil Field! Another desperate sucker waiting for Hibiscus to come in and "help" them!

5 or 8 million ringgit (about 1.5 - 2 million US$)is kacang putih in Oil Business.

Heh heh , Just enough money to pay for 10 days drilling time.....(each well takes at least 30 days ma! Enough to pay salaries only for 1 year but cannot pay hutang?

Haaa Macam Tu Laaa. Bila Nak sampai 25 sen? Tunggu Tunggu..Buah nak jatuh?
Jangan dengar cakap speakup. Musashi69 kamu tunggu sampai 23 sen ke?

Eh? What Kind of Oil Co Counter is this?!
Oil Price Go Up...Share Price Go Down!
Minyak Angin Counter Ke?

Can Hibiscus Last the Distance? $30-40 oil will last for at least another 3 years.....