I have a request to i3 admin. Please add "Total Debt", "Receivables" data in the quarterly financial info. These are quality info for fundamental analysis to decide if a company is worthy of investing.

Management should extend the exercise date of warrant plus one year. That would give fund manager an extra leverage and boost share price. This would benefit all shareholders. From forum discussion can conclude that most are confident Eko can perform better once SPE complete.

Eko still have around 250mil unbilled property sales, and about 1.5bil SPE construction revenue to be booked by end of 2019. Just do you maths!

Fully agreed with longranger. Now, there are too many low cost shares around. Need some effort to purge out all these shares before it is able to march higher. TP 60c by Christmas should be not problem!

Good. Sign of bullish reversal. It's time to buy!
If this kind of volume continue, we will reach 60c soon!

If trade war worsen, world economic activities would slow down. That would bring material costs down. So, may be good news for Eko with solid construction order book for next 3 years. Construction revenue covers 60%. A 10% drop in material costs would mean a lot in margin!

I'm looking forward for a gap up on Monday!
Let's pray hard for a favorable deal on Xi-Trump meeting.

Kudos to management team for such a good result! I hopes management can maintain this good result for the rest of 2019. That should at least warrant a 80c price tag for Eko share.
If management can use some of the earning for SBB (Share Buy Back) or pare down high interest debt, that would be best.

These are the reasons why the trade war would end, sooner than you thought it would be!
Because the American manufacturers are really really hurts!

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/28/manufacturers-say-trump-tariffs-to-bring-higher-prices-not-jobs-survey.html

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/10/29/tariffs-trump-trade-war-politics-donald-trump.html

A rebound is long overdue! If trade war stop, then likely it will recover. But if trade war worsen, then Eko's financial become critical for it to rebound, and gods bless those warrant holders!

I want to see it gap up for 3 consecutive days, then those "pancing -memancing" at lowest prices will miss the boat permanently! haha!

Get ready your bullets! I think winter may soon be over. If regional stocks recovered, I think Eko will too although it's financial results may not be attractive in the short run.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/wce-benchmark-toll-rate-against-pluss-northsouth-expressway

Duke 1 & 2 = 19km + 16km = 35km only charges 250c!
Is Duke 1 & 2 toll cheaper vs benchmark 35x13.96 = 488c? Anyone care to throw some light on this?

mkmk, I don't know about you too. But I rather see a bottom, then I can add more! After all Eko have been dropping for 2 years since it's high.

Unless you are not buying, else we are all in the same boat la!

All the bad mouth just want to buy at 45c, so that can earn 5c different? I rather price goes up to 55c. Also earn 5c right? The difference is if up to 55c, at least we're seeing a bottom already!

What drive prices now is sentiment, not fundamental. People are selling at 50c now thinking that other people are willing to sell backand to them at 45c! But if they are in shoe business, for example, if making a pair of shoes cost $60 would they sell at $55?

If you can recall Mr. Haris, who once owned about 25% Eko's stake in 2013. Now, at current price of 50c is about the normalized price (after split) Mr. Haris bought back in 2013.

If can get Mr. Haris to up his stake, that would be great!

For your information,
Eko's costs for stake acquisition of Duke, plus Duke 2 building costs, plus finance costs (5% p.a.) over the years till now is about 69c/share.

If base on EPF buying price, the effective cost would be about 87c till now.

So, there is no way Duke should sell below 69c/share (or 1.5bil for its 60% stake) !!!

Oh, almost forgot, I want to take this opportunity to correct my earlier statement about "Lim family now controls >74% stake in Eko" in Jun 29, 2018.

In fact, base on 2018 Annual Report, Lim family controls about 40% only. I had actually mistakenly double counted the indirect holdings. So, please take note.

My thousands apologies to all.

Yeah, contrasting to common believe that foreign fund are the main sellers, but for Eko, it's only 20%. In fact, 80% of the selling coming from local funds. Why?

No doubt, the main factor is PH's uncertainty in toll concessionaire policy!

But, the management must make it's efforts to lure them back by better earning visibility and cost cutting measures!

For the past one year, institutional investors had sold about 9% Eko's holding (or reduced by 36% from 2017 holding), where foreign institutional investors consisting of only 20%.

But some institutions are actually increasing their bet on Eko, namely AIA, EPF, Tabung Haji, & National Trust Fund.

Now, institutional investors collectively only hold about 16%, vs 32% in 2016.

@RainT, I still believe Eko worth >RM1 per share, exclude SPE completion and the future land bank's GDV. Current price @50c is a really BIG discount! Nevertheless, management must try its best to maintain the good financial results in coming quarters for institutional investors only looking at good financial results for its decision to invest.

I hopes big guys can push up the price to above 60c. It should stay strong above 60c.

Current price at 50c make people nervous. A lot of people rather stay sideline than bet on this price.

Eko should be priced at 80c to be in line with all other concessionaires.

Eko is safe to buy. It's valuation is much higher than the current price!

NSE is the main target that politicians are targeting.

haha, chocolate /concessionaire. My typo error.

Not all true. Eko belong to younger chocolate. The data is mostly biased by North South Expressway as it is one of the earliest and most profitable one.

Toll abolish or not, someone has to pay for the annual expressways maintenance. If you use taxpayers money to pay for the maintenance, then what's the point for toll abolishment?

If the Highway Trusts model can reduce toll fare, yet covers the annual expressways maintenance, it will be the best solution for all.

But inflation will put pressure on toll fare, over time, toll fare will need to raise to cover inflation on equipment costs, labor costs and material costs. Unless there are other measures to cushion the inflation costs for expressways maintenance.

It's time to buy! Following proposal "Highway Trusts" could be the catalyst for a big run in 2019. I like this proposal. It is a win-win for everyone, both toll users and toll concessionaires.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/highway-trusts-halve-toll-charges

SPE (Duke 3) 29.8km costing 3.738bil (125.4mil/km)
Duke 2A 75.2km costing 6.32bil (84mil/km)

Duke 2A most probably still in the queue for MOF/MOT reviewing. But looking at its pricing (84mil/km) <SPE, I think it will pass smoothly.

BTW.... according to this source, Eko only has 70% of 2A.
https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Blog/BlogArticle.aspx?tid=2138

If 70% funding by Sukuk, it still needs to forge out 30%x70%x6.32bil = ~1.3bil plus the cost for land.

Exactly when no idea. But I'm sure by 2019 it will be above 1.00 again. By the time, management will be looking to sell stake in SPE, or listing of Duke/SPE. Remember it needs money to start 2A (Costs RM6.32 billion).

It's time to go up!

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/savemalaysia/176277.jsp

The sweetest words from MOF so far, "his ministry is willing to proceed with the 17 projects."


http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ekovest-active-rises-427-land-swap-deal-govt#

Does it means this chapter is now over?

The sweetest words from MOF so far, "his ministry is willing to proceed with the 17 projects."

Lastly, I should say, thank you for you money! LOL

Very good! Finally, someone echoed! And this guy sure have a very strong financial muscle! But it's time for me to take some money of the table. Being stuck for almost a year! But not a bad trade though in view that there are plenty more counters suffer worst!

A misstep by management not to maintain the Q4 earning. Now all big kaki had run! Technical doesn't look good. Heading toward 50c soon!

Quote from Note B1 "Despite an increase in the revenue, the gross profit for this quarter is lower than the preceding year corresponding quarter because of the additional costs incurred to expedite the completion of the project."


FY2018('000) FY2017('000)
Revenue 274,538 103,403
Profit 92,117 43,761
margin 33.6% 42.3% => -8.8%


Property development costs: 384mil (FY2018) vs 261mil (FY2017)

Although management did not disclose the exact additional costs.
Just an extra 6% increase in cost = 23mil or 1.08c EPS

Eko is not an EPS growth stock! This is especially true when it used huge loan to fund its construction project. Loan interests will reduce its actual EPS.

Instead Eko is more of an asset growth stock! When SPE is under construction, you don't see any value but only burden (i.e. loan interest). But once it is completed, immediately it jumps in its asset value (GDV + >30%). Just like the case with Duke 2.

What's more? The toll fee raises every 3-4 years due to inflation. So, toll revenue also up and this grows its asset value as well.

Along Duke expressway, there are a few R&R. These facilities are under investment segment where rent are collected. I think it is a good idea starting their own F&B in these R&R.

This can be a warm up exercise for setting up F&B along RoL sites & EkoCheras as well. Restaurants along river bank sites are quite popular among tourists.

Probably the next step is to acquire a good F&B brand!

Wow! Merdeka Sales!
Hopefully tomorrow can grabs more!

Tony Pua is only one of the adviser. I hopes when valuating the toll abolishment, the elected panel would be more professional and objective in determining the compensation rate. After all, concessionaire companies (and its shareholders) have the final say in agreeing the compensation, or decide to sue the government in high court for a more fair compensation that acceptable by all stakeholders.

Tony Pua is only one of the adviser. I hopes when valuating the toll abolishment, the elected panel would be more professional and objective in determining the compensation rate. After all, concessionaire companies (and its shareholders) have the final say in agreeing the compensation, or decide to sue the government in high court for a more fair compensation that acceptable by all stakeholders.

Based on my understanding on Islamic Financial Principal, contract compensation rate usually include some excess, or margin of profitability as guarantee.

Namely, Compensation (i.e. Contract Rate) = Construction Cost + some margin of profit (>5%)


I hopes management can come forth to clarify this confusion as management has accessed to the concession contract documents.

Which is correct?

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/savemalaysia/169960.jsp
malaymail version: "The number that we accounted for, if we take over of which there are no such plans yet, we will have to compensate according to the rates in the contract agreement, cost of construction, excluding the forecasted revenues"

Compensation = Contract rate + Construction cost ?

versus

thestar version: "The figure that we will use, and at the moment we have no intention to do so, should we decide to buy out toll concessionaires will only be based on the contract compensation rate, which is the value of the construction cost," Pua told reporters at the Parliament lobby on Thursday (Aug 16).

Compensation = Contract rate (namely, Construction cost) ?

Just the concession asset alone, any price <1.35/share is consider a good buy. There is still much room to grow.

Without concession, highway construction is not a profitable business. Profit margin only a mere 6%-8%, and have to take huge Sukuk loan with interest 5% p.a. I hereby proposes to the board to cancel Duke3 unless PH promise to give >20% profit margin.

Let government build their own highway if concession only value at cost!