I think GST has its merits too in that GST penetrate into all levels even greater than SST. But the transition is always painful as it resulting in inflated costs everywhere. So, during its introduction, it immediately cut deep into the profit margin, even more so for smaller businesses.

GST income of 44bil vs 30bil for SST says a lots about 6% GST actually been set too high. Should it be set at 4.5% or 5% (and refund the excess?), I think it may be better received.

I think the chance of Duke tolls abolish first is higher because the cost is cheaper and it base in KL where the traffics are higher.

Toll abolishment is a good economic stimulant in that it reduces transport costs, ease inflation, therefore boost consumer spending, & boost company earning. So, it will be great for KLSE! hehe

Government needs to solve 1MDB debt (est. 42 bil) & abolish tolls (prelim 79 bil based on bond debt est.). Together it costs 121 bil, which is about 46% of 2017 budget! Even if it managed to recover 17 bil from 1MDB, it is still stand at ~40%. So, I don't think tolls abolishment can be accomplished within 1 year. Most likely it will takes 2-4 years in stages.

Unless the government aquires the toll assets first, but keep the toll collection to fund the toll compensation. Then it is possible to accomplish this in a much shorter period. But the challenge is how will government forks out the initial 79 bil?

http://www.woodbull.ca/docs/default-source/publications/expropriation-without-compensation-property-rights-vs-government-control

"England - The Acquisition of Land Act, 1919 ... more precise rules were adopted for determining compensation. These rules set the standard of market value plus damages for disturbance."


Comments: Malaysia laws originated from British laws, so I think this is somewhat related! The quote is for Land/Property laws, but I guess similar laws applied to other asset classes.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/expropriation.asp

"There is commonly accepted international agreement that private property owners should receive appropriate compensation for their property in an instance of government expropriation."

Good news. Pan Borneo Highway to continue.
I think Duke 2A should also be safe!

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/pan-borneo-highway-continue

>2

Haha Now WCT is been dragged into 1MDB!
The market is really crazy nowsaday!

The sell off is like tomorrow got no works anymore!! How can that be?

@JY108, 72c is cash per share. Not yet the whole company valuation.
The company still got property division & construction division!

72c per share = 1540 mil enough to eat IWcity at current market price!!! No need JV.

If compensated, the best value estimate is using NTA. With Eko's concession business cover ~80% assets. That would instantly turn into cash!
90c (NTA) x 80% = 72c per share

You are paying 66c for 72c! CASH!!!

With petrol subsidy and toll price reduced, most likely more people will be on the road. So, eventually it will still pay back.

EPF, Tabung Haji, & retirement fund who holds quite a lots of toll concession assets are on our side. I think if there is any bad news wouldn't be that bad after all. So, it is either government gives retrenchment package to Eko, or reduce of toll salary by 10% the most. Either way, the investors have over-reacted!

Still too early to tell. For now, shorter wins.
Will see next week when all dusts are settled. See who are laughing all the way to bank.

An all-stars stock! Usually can't touch bcoz highly inflated!
Now very tempting. Think will add some.

I normally won't touch warrants! For its limited life span.
But at this particular instant, I actually more prefer warrant @31c for its ability to grow value once Eko recover. Better risk/reward ratio!
Even after exercised, 31c+48c=79c! Still below its cost price!

I'm keep wondering the reason why the last sell down from 96c to 80c range during late March to April. At that time, I totally have no clue as there is no material event that could threaten Eko's fundamental.

Now only I realizes, sharks are betting on PH win the GE14 and its consequences on tolls and mega projects.

From 96c to 70c, a 27% drop! Was it necessary!!? With Eko's fundamental likely left unharmed after this exercise!

Anyway, it does post a good opportunity for me to average down my original position, from 97c to 78.5c. Excluded all my realized profits. Really thanks a lots.

Situation like this reminds me of playing chess during my school days.

In Chess, sometimes opponent leave his Rook unprotected in your path, and you are left wonder to catch it, or there is a catch behind! Haha

Right now this seem like such one-in-millions opportunity open for you all.

Well, opportunity only open for those who are smart and dare. Those who sceptic and scare to take action are likely shy away and regret later.

Too bad I only manage to buy a little at 72c. No time to monitor. Will try to collect more tomorrow.

But believe me, the sell off is way over done already. Firstly, Duke projects are just chicken feet compare to all high profile projects. Even if it needs to cut price tag, there isn't much to cut. Secondly, Eko's share price is not highly inflated like Gamuda, GKent, UEM, etc. It already drop below its cost price. If you know what I mean. Lastly, concession assets are protected under laws. It can't be taken away just like that. Government needs to compensate.

My advice: collect as many as you can. At this price, it is god damn cheap!!!

If government want to buy Duke 1 & 2, it will have to pay more now (at least +20%) for a fully completed Duke 1 & 2 plus annual inflation.

When EPF bought 40% share on Dec 2016, it was valued at Rm2.825 bil. Now, it has to pay RM3.39 bil to both EPF & Eko.

My ammunition level is critically low now! All hits today! hehe

Guys, my ammunition level is critically low now! All hits today! hehe

Yesterday's soldl down is due to fear effect of US-China trade war. That's more snow for already very low market sentiment. Mr Market like to play on people's fear. When all the dust settle, the share price should go up.

@kenlee, profit = f(revenue, cost, forex, ..etc). The company cannot control forex, so they had to bring in more orders. Unisem still have lots of capacity to complete more orders. That's its potential to make new high.

IWCity has good land bank in JB and Ekovest has good engineering team and a good pile of cash, and LKH is the boss of both companies.

Even without a merger, a JV deal for the 2 companies is still possible for both companies to enjoy the fruit together.

Something to expect from new iphone this year. There could be some positive element of surprise for Unisem.

https://www.macrumors.com/2017/12/29/what-to-expect-from-apple-in-2018/

Good news for Danco?
1. Petronas to increase capex in 2018.
2. Malaysia's Palm Oil inventory reduce and increase output for 2018.

Wow! Insiders keep on adding positions. The future must be very bright for Unisem!

But again, who can guarantee such cases won't happen under Pakatan's ruling?

Laws and agencies already exist in Malaysia. It just a question of execution only!

In fact, highway concession business is a lucrative asset.

Just look at Duke. Ekovest brought it many years ago for just a few millions. Now it is already grown multiple in values!

It's funny that politician save cases like this as bullets until GE then voice out.

It should send the case to Auditor General to be thoroughly investigated of any wrong doing. Clearly the government agency should be questioned for given out grant covering 74% of the building cost (and why not 50% or 40%), and why it is given to Maju Holdings and not big name like Gamuda, or GKent, or Ekovest (hehehe).

But I guess the logic behind the high grant is that, for the sake of greater KL, highway infrastructure provide ease of accessibility and hence boost business activities in the region and its assets prices. In turn, government get more taxes from the business activities and properties transactions.

Good! Strong support at 28c.

Never! They will never abolish toll!

Think again, if abolish toll, who take MRT? Who's going to build highway and maintain it? Who's going to pay for government's annual multi-billions spending?

Apple Q2 revenue $61.1b (where iPhone covers 62%), Q3 estimate $51.5b - $53.5b. About 14% reduction.

Communication segment covers 26% of Unisem's revenue and half the business from Apple.
So, the effect is 14% x 50% x 26% = about -1.8% impact on Unisem's revenue.

Even if you assume worst scenario of 31% iPhone production cut.
The effect is 31% x 50% x 26% = about -4% impact on Unisem's revenue.

The loss business from Apple still can be covered by growth in other Consumer (IoT), Auto, & Industrial segment.

For those pessimists, new waves of smart phones are going to storm the market again in very near future. PC may be dead, but smart phones still very young!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tsmc-talks-5-nanometer-chip-224600000.html

Good. This beast is finally calm down.

Now all eyes on Apple quarter report tomorrow. I guess the key thing is not how bad Apple performed, but its next quarter guidance.

CIMB [Buy] target 2.50

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/04/25/cimb-research-retains-add-for-unisem-but-lowers-target-price/

MorningStar [] fair value 2.56

http://quotes.morningstar.com/stockq/analysis-report?t=XKLS:5005&region=mys&culture=en-US&productcode=MLE&cur=

Revenue in USD. Data can be obtained from the company's website.
2018Q1 81900
2017Q4 85933
2017Q3 89667
2017Q2 84366
2017Q1 81026
2016Q4 83741
2016Q3 79395
2016Q2 79968
2016Q1 75890
2015Q4 81809
2015Q3 81362
2015Q2 82103
2015Q1 78106
2014Q4 86060

That's not apple to apple comparison. It's rather complicated. I believe forex has a part in the costs as well, which is not reflected in forex loss, e.g. material costs are higher (i.e. copper/gold increased by +20%/+9%).

If you use revenue in USD (assuming you applies the right ex-rates), I think that will give a better picture of the overall business performance. Management did hint that, in USD terms, YoY +1%, QoQ -5%.

USD/MRY: 1Q18 3.92, 4Q17 4.16, 1Q17 4.45

And once Battam's plant breaks even in 2H18, the valuation will be even better!

If you take out the forex loss (9.9m) and normalized the capex (~30m per qtr),
the net profit = 6m + 9.9m + 15m = 30.9m (9.6% NP margin) = ~4c eps
which is still quite good.

In general, more capex means more business ahead.

Timing the bottom is very difficult! Even professionals get it wrong most of the time.

If discards the forex loss (likely carry on for 2 more qtrs which is only short term), the company is still performing quite well. And it's already dropping 55% from the peak. Market is over-reacting now! So, I think current price is a good buy.

If it go further down, sure good opportunity to average down.

Mr John Chia, is the most steady one, keep on buying, all year long, every years! Keep on averaging down. Although he did sold once @4.00, nearly at the peak, for 6mil cash. But he already add more within these 2 years.

Share price can go up, or down, or go further down. It follows people emotion, or the so call market sentiment.

But insider is buying. That means one thing, he has confident in the company to do well going forward. I think that's is a good message for long term investment!

Mr Yen Woon@SC Low is trading using 3 separate trading accounts? Selling from SG a/c, and buying from MY a/c! Seem likes millionaires are putting money in SG, now want to bring back money.

Russia order coming?

Insider SC Low had been very good at timing this stock. Follows him should be quite safe. Today he is buying. But just a little 100k shares. hehe.

Its fundamental still sound, not sign of big weakening. Very good opportunity to rebuild position below 2.00.

Merge with IWC, or even IWH, is a good deal to increase land bank, but wrong timing. At least, not a time when people are wary of property. There are excess of properties everywhere in Msia, especially JB. Wait for 5-8 years, properties can sell like hot cake again!