Sslee seems to be a good man to me....

But sorry that from my observations for years good man mostly cannot do well in stock mkt (infact in biz as well)

If SSlee do his own biz I doubt if he can do well

U think OTB earns a lot of money fm stock mkt coz he is a good man ah?

Posted by stockraider > 23 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Raider do not understand whether sifu sslee & probability are greater fool loh!

Maybe they pretend to be greater fool by catching on other Greater greater fools loh!

SSlee i think no lah....

As for Probability, I have seen his monkey tricks in Serbak....So I knew him well lah

As for HY's cases, depends on whether u wanna believe Probability's profit projections 24 hours a day, 7 days a week here or not....

Most investors are funny...

Once they own a share they will only listen to the positive news

5 X RM0.30 (IPO price) = RM1.50

Petron already provided for mark to mkt losses....for the hedging unrealized losses by flowing to the P&L mah!

It's quite straight fwd in Petronm's hedging cases i think...plus 1 minus 1...

As for HY's case, we will see......

rr88 do u know why u are still poor at yr age now?

Posted by rr88 > 15 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Want to chase dont blindly chase. Must look at earnings also.

Earnings coming down 8mil++ to 6mil++ qoq. Next qtr 5mil++ with 0.7 cents earnings. Annualised 2.8 cents per year only.

Fair value PE 40 n below.
40 x 2.8 = 1.12 n below.

At 1.50, there is 0.38 bubble inside.

Now u revise yr TP fm RM0.70 to RM1.12 ah?

I thought u asked everyone to sell (in yr last sell call) not long ago at 1.10+....lol

Waterfish stock can make good money better than waterfish who dont hold this waterfish stock.....lol

1.50....

Breaks new high

Hope u have the chance to recover yr losses in stock mkt eventually

Buy more loh

I3 is very toxic ,full of retaxds n conman

Eventually it will be the same....

Again u guys will say crack spreads will not be the same like glove's ASP, CPO Price or whatever.....

What happens to the CPO price?

It takes 5 to 6 years to see the fruits....

The key word is Sustainability

Unless u can go to Casino and make money every time for a long long time...

Even now it seems Covid 19 may stay for a long while but what happens to the ASP?

Sslee

CharlesT,
No one know what will happen tomorrow but if ukarine war go on for years then crack spread should maintain because once Russia cut off the gad supply the alternative for gas is diesel.

No one expect the war to last forever so are the high crack spreads.....ops except those who r holding HY n Petronm

It reminded me of those glove co investors who expected Covid 19 to stay forever

Sslee
My explanation as below:
Stock: [HENGYUAN]: HENGYUAN REFINING CO BHD
Sep 8, 2022 9:43 AM | Report Abuse

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”
The market has spoken:

Yes, but not applicable on cyclical stocks like HY n Petronm....unless the high crack spread becomes a new normal n will stay there for a long long time


But if you are using fear, misinformation, deceived and unethical means to induce people to vote for you in selling their HRC just because you hate someone or for you/your syndicate to buy low then sell high again. I can only hope your conscious is clear and sleep well.

To me, another version of story sounds like this:

But if you are using greeds, misinformation (lengthy n complicated calculations/profit projections), deceived and unethical means to induce people to vote for you in buying HRC just because you have hefty position in HY (could be using margin as well) and u want someone to buy and push up the prices for you to sell high or escape. I can only hope your conscious is clear and sleep well.

The question here is their profit sustainable (so are the high crack spreads)?



Remember the oil palm plantation party not too long ago??

Whenever rr88 comes here prices surely will fly dunno y

Ok Ok stop for now...... for OTB's sake

Will be back in Nov after Q3 result again.

Posted by probability > 41 seconds ago | Report Abuse

i really want the Fund Managers to explain me on CFH and COHR...i want them to help explain these to layman...

Can ask HY's FC to do so, I think more effective

Ya better blame all the Fund Managers too....

Mark a record first.........hehe we will know soon in Nov

Posted by probability > 37 minutes ago | Report Abuse

you take out dividend, this stock is trading at 4.50 now

It has delivered EPS even better than what was estimated and yet, purely because of wrong perception on the meaning of the two clauses below, market is thinking it will revert back to its earlier earnings.

Cash flow hedge & Cost of hedging reserve

From what i have extracted and studied, these are nothing but the effects of the Refining margin swap contract.

Cash flow hedge (CFH) are basically hedge portions of the RMSC which has been liquidated as of 30th June and awaiting respective physical market transaction to take place to offset these hedging losses.

Whereas, Cost of hedging reserve (COHR) is simply the following:

Forward looking Mark-to-market estimate of the difference between the fixed price and the future spot price multiplied by the notional quantity and discounted back to a present value based on a reasonable discount rate determined by the producer.

Even if we assume the RMSC covers complete Gasoline production capacity of 35% yield x 10.6 million, 3.7 million barrels, you are securing the below gross profit after hedging losses or gain.

= 3.7 million x 12.7 USD/brl x 4.45 ex
= 209 million MYR.....(1)

No matter what the figures are reported on CFH & COHR, they are purely trying to show the ineffectiveness / effectiveness of the hedging but the profit contribution remains the same. (SERIOUSLY, THINK ABOUT THIS)

The CFH shows how much 'opportunity for greater profit than 209 million / per qtr' is confirmed loss while COHR shows potential loss if the scenario prolongs indefinitely for the balance notional value.

For every negative value on CFH & COHR that will take place, there will be equally higher gross profit in future physical market transaction where after deducting the hedging loss anticipated, you will report the same 209 million for gasoline per qtr.


For the balance refined products diesel, jet fuel and others (10.7 - 3.7 = 7 million barrels per qtr) , you have the following:

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 50.36/bbl
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 38.40/bb
3. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 7.77/bbl

Gross refining margin/brl:

= (0.46 x 50.4 ) + (0.07 x 38.40) + (0.12 x 7.77)
= (23.18 + 2.70 + 0.93)/ (0.65)
= US $ 41.2 / brl

Gross Profit :

= (7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $41.2/brl) x (MYR 4.45/USD)
= 1.283 Billion MYR........(2)


Total gross profit after hedging gain / loss: (1) + (2)
= 1.483 Billion MYR

EPS will be exceeding RM 3 per QTR

The above is what we will obtain going forward if the Diesel & Jet Fuel margins are stable around there. The hedging losses reported on page 8 (438 million) are the effects of monthly hedging of Diesel & Jet fuel as all refinery does and this expected to become zero as crack spread stabilizes from month to month.

Dunno why i only see Probability's desperation

EPS RM3 for Q3......walau A

Probability sialang in HY holding too much cannot eat cannot sleep cannot bangsai everyday doing his profit projection seeing higher n higher EPS....

https://www.enanyang.my/行家论股/热门股多元重工-上挑rm169

Another victim of SN Loke/ Nanyang

Yes MM u need to post in SFP thread to rescue the people there

U only love to rescue people here meh?

Posted by OTB > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

Posted by tehka > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse
Dear otb, you should forgive ty y. He is just stress because he loose money after follow random sifu on i3.
--------------
I do not think so.

Or at least forgive KYY........

Without him the legendary Koon Bee would not exist...so are yr few properties n millions of Cash

Make sense also..Insas didnt own Inari then I think

Moneymaker u better spell yr curse in SFP thread....no point repeating here

U r welcomed there

But Sifu if u give stock buy recommendation like BSL I will whack u also

Earlier quoted by Sifu OTB:

My profit in 2020, ty Y will need to work all his life also cannot achieve this result.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAyKJAtDNCw

TQ Sifu OTB for yr buy call on Supermax in Apr or May 2020....

If not yr return from holding Insas for 25 years will likely worse than FD

Anyway, Kok Kee will still goreng the WA on n off, once in every few years...If panlai maybe can make good money also

If u buy Insas now and is willing to hold for 25 years to see it's finally being privatised at NTA value I think still ok

Just cut some oversea travels n abalones meal after yr retirement.

NTA investment is long overdue

One for one rights issues at RM1.00 with 4 free wa i think

If i m not mistaken Insas was also ard rm0.70+ 25 years ago in 1998 or 1999 when i first bought it for its rights issues with 4 free Wa

Life is meaningless if without a dream

So called long term investment

Buy n hold n pray for the Co to be privatised at NTA in future....

If u cant see it happens, leave it to yr children

Can see cannot eat....no point

Insas is not a div stock for sure..

Bplant not bad....HY goreng stock...Petronm OK lah i guess

Sslee my senior, are u happy with yr result so far in yr journey?

It seems to me only Engineer can do well in stock mkt

Crude oil up good crude oil drop good Mogas 92 up good Mogas 92 down also good hedging gain good hedging loss also good everything is good....just like in Heaven