I wish to inform that my article "Jaks Resources - The Most Reliable Earnings Guidance for JHDP" has registered overwhelming number of visits in excess of 6000 and the number is still growing fast.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-05-01-story-h1506848575-Jaks_Resources_The_Most_Reliable_Earnings_Guidance_for_JHDP.jsp

Aseng, don't be too hopeful yet. The idea just crossed my mine. I m not sure whether the article will materialise or not. I need to carry out the research first. That is why I said "wish me luck".
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Aseng DK66,

I believe your next article will be more convincing than the previous one.

God bless.

I m now carrying out a research on the potential for JHDP to achieve a materially higher return than Vinh Tan 1 on certain grounds. Wish me luck.

I believe it is not listed.

I quote an example : Facts vs Speculations

Speculation = most companies reported share of profit based on equity interest, hence, should be 50% to Jaks
Facts = OTB confirmed by Jaks auditor that share of profit from JV to be 30%.

Aseng, yes

Appear to be honest = avoid to be dishonest

How to appear to be honest ? = Talk with fact and data

Honesty = evidences, facts and figures, not speculations and fortune readings

Aseng, I agree with you. You want to win the heart of the readers you need to be honest or at least appear to be honest.

Please allow me another attempt to promote my article. TQ

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My latest article "Jaks Resources - The Most Reliable Earnings Guidance for JHDP" provides an indisputable, reliable and convincing profit guidance for JHDP. It is straightforward and easy to understand.

I quote Aseng "Aseng is just a satayman selling satay at the roadside also can understand"
I quote warrantKing "I think your article is most reliable source to project JAKS's coming EPS."

The article has dismissed all accusations against me for providing imaginary forecasts.

Relative valuation by peer comparison is the most reliable method for making profit forecast of another company having high degree of similarity in characteristics including size, location, terms and conditions etc. This method alleviates the need for projection of future cash flow, hypothetical assumptions, management guidance and complicated computations.

I believe this article will rekindle investors' interest in Jaks including those attempting to buy low.

Those interested may visit https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-05-01-story-h1506848575-Jaks_Resources_The_Most_Reliable_Earnings_Guidance_for_JHDP.jsp

Cloudboy, thanks for the advice

VIN3133, as request

Ensuring the progress of the billion dollar project

By March, after nearly 10 years of construction, BOT Hai Duong Thermal Power Plant in Quang Thanh Commune (Kinh Mon Town) has completed over 90% of the construction and installation of equipment. large and small devices, and testing individual equipment, interlocking some systems.

The plant, with a total investment of about US $ 2.2 billion, is in the final stage to connect to the 220 kV power transmission network and prepare to put into operation the first unit in the fourth quarter of this year and the whole. project in the second quarter of 2021. It is expected that the plant will provide 7.5 billion kWh of electricity to the national grid every year.

The Covid-19 pandemic occurred, which caused the investor's calculations to change. Mr. Do Manh Hung, Head of Government Relations and Business Development Department of Jaks Hai Duong Power Co., Ltd said: "The project is in the stage of construction, testing and basically completing the project according to the schedule. During the course of the road, a number of Chinese project managers, equipment experts and engineers could not return to work, and some materials and equipment could not be imported. According to the schedule, the project implementation is in danger of being delayed. "

Facing this difficulty, the company has cooperated with contractors to mobilize Chinese experts and workers with experience working on other domestic thermal projects to support. The company has also proposed Chinese experts and engineers who cannot return to Vietnam to work or exchange online.

The company has made a list of Chinese experts and engineers who need to return to Vietnam to ask the two countries' authorities to create a specific mechanism for entry. The company is ready to use private cars or private aircraft to transport experts and workers on the list as well as a commitment to strictly implement the disease prevention measures.

Cloudboy, thanks for telling. I suppose we have different investment strategies. Wish you all the best.

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Cloudboy Dk66

I bought jaks bcs it has a huge drop from RM 1.50++ to RM 0.70++.....I have small exposure of 195000 unit shares of Jaks average at RM 0.79

As we all know, no market moves in a straight line
Given the overall negative undertone from the economic challenges ahead and the positive & negative facts of jaks... i will start trimming my position on JAKS

Trade with care!!

YONG, you are welcome. I hope you found the article helpful.

Those who believe by talking in i3 can move the price up or down are really naive.

Maybe I shouldn't defend Jaks too much. I m only responding to questions posted to me but some are already thinking otherwise......

Cloudboy, your have a valid point which I can't deny. That is the risk I have to take if I wish to take on this rare opportunity. Nothing is risk free.

Would you like to share your thought on why you bought Jaks despite knowing the risk ?

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Cloudboy I have position in Jaks....but all this profit estimation by sifu here whether will come truth ..nobody know

And one more thing I wanted to highlight is... even Jaks hit whatever potential earning mentioned by the sifu here....whether andy ang will share the profit with the shareholder as a form of consistent dividend distribution or share buyback ...is a BIG question....???

History of Jaks management already shows execution risk.
03/05/2020 10:10 PM

Hng33, maybe this is true for you as you are very short term players. JHDP offers 25 years of prosperity and you are concerned with just 1 or 2 quarters of poor results before the power plant starts operation.
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hng33 It is check and balance in turn of analyze Jaks to not only cover good prospect of its IPP in 2021 onward, but also take into account setback face by Jaks in 2020.
03/05/2020 10:20 PM

Hng33, I have many times provided mathematical calculation proving that the construction profit from the EPC2 contract in Vietnam is sufficient for the outstanding future capital commitment.

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hng33 Dear DK66

Up to last quarter result, Jaks still have outstanding commitment RM 220m balance for its 30% stake entitlement in IPP. Do you think the balance construction profit is enough to cover all these commitment?
03/05/2020 10:18 PM

hng33, you are speculating too much. I have done an article proving that the property segment is insignificant in comparison to JHDP.

Do you have evidence that the balance 49% belongs to Andy ?

Pacific star project will be completed this year after which there will be no LAD.

Could you provide an estimate as the potential losses in property Jaks maybe facing ? So that readers can better comprehend the magnitude of the problem you are suggesting.

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hng33 Dear DK66

You have share important profit generating prospect on Jaks IPP, but Jaks also own many other loss making asset still yet to take into full account. Jaks assets in Malaysia is worth RM 600m including evolve mall and upcoming pacific mall and pacific office tower. The new mall and new office tower need high occupancy rate in order to achieve operation breakeven or risk of impairment goodwill if continuous operation loss.

Although Jaks control 51% stake, the other 49% is control by Jaks CEO Andy. Jaks as listed company and have power profit can still offset loss making mall and office tower, but CEO Andy at his capacity may not be able to stand such continue loss. Earlier in last Dec, Andy already opt to gradual transfer some office tower unit and car park lot to Jaks to offset his debt. There is risk for Andy to transfer more loss making investment properties to Jaks in order to absorb continuous loss.
03/05/2020 10:02 PM

Aseng, the tone of hng33's remark solely depends on his position in Jaks. He is currently waiting to buy, so don't expect anything nice from him.

Hbg33, The profit from the EPC contract will sum up to US$454.5 x 25% = US$113.6m which is enough for the future capital commitment of US$110m for its 30% stake

hng33, would you like to share your view on the article?

VIN3133, Thanks for sharing your view
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VIN3133 My thoughts on DK's peer comparison method of earnings forecast for Jaks .
Sensible, fair & reliable as both entities exhibit closest similarities in all aspects .
Simple, straight-forward , reliable & convincing .
Data on Vinh Tan 1 PP can't lie .
Laypersons , non-experts can easily comprehend .
Probably, the investors concern is on declaration of dividend and its repatriation.
On this issue , my personal view is that both JV partners will certainly not wish to see the excess cash remain idle in Vietnam . This is evident in the case of Mong Duong II.
Verdict : I am confident & I dumb dumb hold .
Current depressed price of around 1.00 is cheap & presents an opportunity .
03/05/2020 7:09 PM

Dear All,

On second thought, I feel ashamed to claim credit for this article.

The fact is I didn't perform any analysis in the article. I merely put Vinh Tan 1's results before you which could be easily done by anyone. Apart from the elaborative wordings, I didn't do much. The results of Vinh Tan 1 could speak for itself. I suppose that is why the article is very convincing.

Anyway, thanks for all the compliments which I feel I don't quite deserve.

In any case, I hope everyone can read this article and have a thought on this incredible opportunity.

Thank you

Dear All,

On second thought, I feel ashamed to claim credit for my article "Jaks Resources - The Most Reliable Earnings Guidance for JHDP"

The fact is I didn't perform any analysis in the article. I merely put Vinh Tan 1's results before you which could be easily done by anyone. Apart from the elaborative wordings, I didn't do much. The results of Vinh Tan 1 could speak for itself. I suppose that is why the article is very convincing.

Anyway, thanks for all the compliments which I feel I don't quite deserve.

In any case, I hope everyone can read the article and have a thought on this incredible opportunity.

Thank you

Dear all,

I would like to hear your view on this article. How do you rate the reliability of profit guidance with reference to Vinh Tan 1 ?

Please share your thoughts

Thank you

Dear OTB, thank you for the prompt reply.

The answer is as expected and we shall have no more doubt in this regard though some may feel disappointed.

Thank you so much for your help.

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OTB Posted by DK66 > May 2, 2020 11:55 PM | Report Abuse

What's remain within JHDP regardless of being 50% owned by Jaks currently will become 70% owned by CPECC in 3 years time. In view of this, personally, I do not think the auditor will agree to 50% sharing of profit to be recorded in Jaks' books unless the management has reasons beyond my knowledge to convince the auditor otherwise.

Anyway, lets wait for management response to OTB's query.
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Dear DK66,

The auditor confirmed the profit taken into consideration should be 30% only.
Thank you.
03/05/2020 2:07 PM

My latest article "Jaks Resources - The Most Reliable Earnings Guidance for JHDP" provides an indisputable, reliable and convincing profit guidance for JHDP. It is straightforward and easy to understand.

I quote Aseng "Aseng is just a satayman selling satay at the roadside also can understand"
I quote warrantKing "I think your article is most reliable source to project JAKS's coming EPS."

The article has dismissed all accusations against me for providing imaginary forecasts.

Relative valuation by peer comparison is the most reliable method for making profit forecast of another company having high degree of similarity in characteristics including size, location, terms and conditions etc. This method alleviates the need for projection of future cash flow, hypothetical assumptions, management guidance and complicated computations.

I believe this article will rekindle investors' interest in Jaks including those attempting to buy low.

Those interested in the artilce may visit https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-05-01-story-h1506848575-Jaks_Resources_The_Most_Reliable_Earnings_Guidance_for_JHDP.jsp

Casino123, is it not wise to trust the advice of anyone in i3. The promoters will say YES. The Naysayers will say NO. You have to listen to yourself.

My first target price of RM2.50 is based on 30% interest in JHDP

edkfc, the extra 10% is a 33% increase which is very significant. I do not want to be overly optimistic and speculative, 30% is good enough for me for now given the price is only around RM1.

Some expressed concern on the lack of dividend distribution from Vinh Tan 1 in my article. I have include an explanation in the article as well as an anticipation of future distribution pattern.

Please revisit the article https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-05-01-story-h1506848575-Jaks_Resources_The_Most_Reliable_Earnings_Guidance_for_JHDP.jsp

Dear OTB, thank you

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Ans :
Your request had been sent today.
Please wait for reply.
Thank you.
03/05/2020 10:51 A

firehawk, I wish to express my appreciation for your participation and comments in this article.

In any case, the profit sharing of 30% is already significant enough to cause a boom in Jaks' share price given that the price is only around RM1 currently.

firehawk, you do have a point there. Though I m tempted to think that share of profit will be based on the equity interest, my past experience as a professional auditor with KPMG Peat Marwick, Singapore would not allow me such believe.

It is always the substance of any arrangement that determines the accounting treatment of a transaction. Since the RCPS ranks pari passu with equity shares in all dividend payments, CPECC always get 70% of whatever that is distributed out of JHDP.

What's remain within JHDP regardless of being 50% owned by Jaks currently will become 70% owned by CPECC in 3 years time. In view of this, personally, I do not think the auditor will agree to 50% sharing of profit to be recorded in Jaks' books unless the management has reasons beyond my knowledge to convince the auditor otherwise.

Anyway, lets wait for management response to OTB's query.

Steve Ooi, you are welcome
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Steve Ooi Thank you DK66, appreciate your effort. Great job, thumb up.
dumb dumb hold
02/05/2020 10:42 PM

Thanks for the information

kmwong8711, is this you were trying to post ?

HANOI: Vietnam reported no new Covid-19 (coronavirus) cases on Saturday morning (May 2), the seventh day in a row, with its total confirmed cases remaining at 270, according to its Ministry of Health.

A total of 219 Covid-19 patients have recovered in the country, with no deaths reported, while there are 443 suspected cases and nearly 35,000 people being monitored and quarantined as of Friday evening, according to the ministry.

Students in Vietnamese capital city of Hanoi will return to school from May after an over three-month break due to the Covid-19 epidemic, vietnam News Agency reported.

The decision was made by Chairman of Hanoi's People Committee Nguyen Duc Chung on Friday.

Specifically, secondary school and high school classes will welcome students back from May 4 while those of kindergarten and elementary schools will return on May 11.

Earlier, Ho Chi Minh City announced that its ninth and 12th graders will return to school on May 4 to finish their second semester before the high school entrance and high school graduation exams respectively in late July and early August, daily newspaper vietnam News reported.

Students in other grades between four and 11 in Ho Chi Minh City will start on May 8, those in grades one to three on May 11, and those in kindergartens and nurseries on May 18 at the latest, according to the Vietnam News Agency. - Xinhua/Asian News Network

Page not found ??
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kmwong8711 https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2020/05/02/vietnam-clear-of-c...-4
02/05/2020 7:14 PM

I wish I m able to do that so that I can prevent people from making nasty remarks in my thread
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firehawk you ban me? :D
02/05/2020 7:11 PM

Firehawk, try changing some of your wordings.
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firehawk DK66, strangely, i can't post under yr article
02/05/2020 7:08 PM

Aseng, you are welcome.

Yes, I finally did it as promised

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Aseng DK66,
Thank you for your great effort to make complicated thing simple

It is indeed a very good relative valuation.
No reason not to certified it is true and correct at i3 forum standard.
02/05/2020 6:08 PM

Aseng, in fact, I m also happy to have been able to come up with a simple and easy to understand article to prove my points. I m aware that my past articles are difficult to comprehend for certain group of readers, and I blamed myself for not be able to make them much easier to understand.

Hence, I waited for Vinh Tan 1 results and I knew the results will speak for itself.

I won't worry about the Naysayers because I know my latest article on profit forecast is very convincing. There are all kinds of people in this world.....

Dividend distribution is generally subject to the availability of general reserve. However, the company can make capital distribution. In this case, as the power plant will be handed over to the Vietnam government after 25 years, the equity capital will be returned to the shareholders in the form of capital distribution.

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SALAM Mr DK66, maximum What % of profit in the JV can be declared as dividend? 50%,100%?
02/05/2020 4:56 PM

What I meant was I don't need to assume the discount rates and the future cash flow patterns, the projected IRR, the payback period, the interest rate, the amortisation rate, the O&M costs. the electricity demand etc which in most case are necessary with other evaluation methodologies.

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DK66 Perfectinvestor, maybe I assumed Vinh Tan 1 is a good match for JHDP if that is the assumption you are referring to. Sorry, I m not so theoretical.

Perfectinvestor DKK66 Sifu, sorry that I don't agree with you. There is no forecast without assumptions in this world of reality! So, your forecast can be right only if your assumptions are true and valid. Just stating the facts and truth
02/05/2020 4:50 PM

I think should start from 2021

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Snipper Hi DK66, so the 25years of BOT will last till YR2045 (2020+25years)? Thanks for you advise in advance.
02/05/2020 4:52 PM

Perfectinvestor, maybe I assumed Vinh Tan 1 is a good match for JHDP if that is the assumption you are referring to. Sorry, I m not so theoretical.

Perfectinvestor DKK66 Sifu, sorry that I don't agree with you. There is no forecast without assumptions in this world of reality! So, your forecast can be right only if your assumptions are true and valid. Just stating the facts and truth

Aseng, I can't prove you wrong

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Aseng so, from we had gathered
the deal is safe for all parties
whether Jaks has 50% now or 30% later
dividend is just the matter of time
because both parties wish to bring money home


DK66,
am I right ?
02/05/2020 2:27 PM

Dear OTB, you are welcome. No worries

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I always have a sleepless night when I cannot answer any question raised by my subscribers on Jaks. Hence you can notice that I even email you at wee hours to disturb you which I feel not so nice. Thank you for your understanding and help.