Power plants produce electricity.

Yes, Tanjung bin power plant is an example of a 1000MW coal power plant in malaysia

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Heavenly PUNTER what's a powerplant for actually ah unkers? Electricity for households ah? Malaysia got Coal Power plant mah? Sorry lah i beginner
12/04/2019 10:42 PM

My estimate is as follow;

Cost of project = US$1.87b
25% equity capital = US$467.5m
Therefore 10% of capital = US$46.75m
Plus Interest cost 6% for 5 years = US$46.75 x 1.06 x 1.06 x 1.06 x 1.06 x1.06 = US$62.56m

May have to add another year or 2 of interest costs depending on the exercise date.

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Icon8888 DK66 how much does it cost for them to buy the additional 10% ?
12/04/2019 10:02 PM

Even unit 1 commissioned by end of 2019, no profit from power sales until 2020.

But there will be a big jump in construction profit from vietnam EPC this year.

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Nikmon Wow, target to complete by end of this year ........
If complete by end if year, what is the average profit for 4 quarter?? DK66, any idea?
12/04/2019 8:57 PM

Yup, this is good enough for now

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Icon8888 I suggest we take RM150 mil as the base case, and hope for higher case

If it is indeed RM150 mil, the stock goes to RM2.00, that is not bad already

Anything more than that is bonus loh

Anyway, Kenanga got a figure, RM150m based don 30% sharing. It is more than sufficient now as the price is only RM0.85.

What we are doing now is nothing more than back of envelop calculation.

But we would be well off the track because the tariff is a 2 tier tariffs - a fixed portion (capacity charge) and a variable portion (energy charge) with fuel cost pass through.

Therefore, the tariff payment cannot possibly be based on a fixed Per Kwh basis.

Note that the PPA was signed in 2011, the tariff then was much lower than 8 us cents.

30% with option to add 10%

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probability what is the stakes of Jaks on the Power plant - they only get 30% is it? or is it 50%?
12/04/2019 8:49 PM

Potential of overstatement of coal consumption by 44% by kenanga !

Hence, potential understatement of profit by US$279m ??

Kenanga is a research company not a news reporter, it should provide an explanation.

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probability Price of coal= 115 USD/ton

Price of electricity = 0.08 USD/KwH

Electricity generated per ton of coal (max) = 2,460 kWh/ton

2460 kWh = 196 USD

Meaning you create about 196 USD dollar (max consumer value) per 115 USD coal you consume

Max gross margin (excluding all other costs) = 80 USD / ton of coal


https://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/energy/question481.htm

A typical 500 megawatt coal power plant produces 3.5 billion kWh per year. That is enough energy for 4 million of our light bulbs to operate year round. To produce this amount of electrical energy, the plant burns 1.43 million tons of coal.

Thanks
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probability ok thanks DK66 will revert to you on the coal to kwh conversion soon..
12/04/2019 8:23 PM

You mean consumer tariff ?

HÀ NỘI — The average retail price for power was raised by 8.36 per cent on Wednesday, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT).

The hike means that electricity bills have risen from VNĐ1,720 (7.49 US cents) per kWh to VNĐ1,864 (8.03 cents), excluding VAT.

Different pricing schemes have also been set for households and businesses. Specifically, retail prices for households now range from VNĐ1,678 per kWh to VNĐ2,927 per kWh depending on usage.


Read more at http://vietnamnews.vn/economy/507496/electricity-prices-rise-836-to-cover-production-cost.html#yORl0VZGfwdg61uQ.99
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probability DK66 do you have the tariff rates per KWH power in Vietnam?
12/04/2019 8:15 PM

77% utilisation is about similar to Mong Duong 2 power plant

I m a little surprised that unit 1 of the plant is expected to be commissioned by end of this year. Anyway, a positive surprise.

if coal consumption is off track, how about the profit figures ?

You are right ..... unfortunately

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Heavenly PUNTER DK66, analyst mah.... they are just doing their job they don't care
12/04/2019 8:07 PM

Remember, Hai Duong plant is designed to use anthracite coal. The best coal in the world in term of heat rate.

It seems that kenanga just take whatever information given without further analysis.

Coal = 15,000 X 365 days = 5,475,000 mt
Electricity = 1,112,000 x 24 x 365 x 77% = 7,500,662,400 KwH

7,500,662,400 / 5,475,000 = 1,370 Kwh/mt coal

"Assuming the full commissioning of the plant, an expected 15,000 mt/day of coal is to be consumed to support a minimum utilisation required of 77% for both turbines. The supply of coal has been committed to be backed by the local coal authority, which is well facilitated with the construction of an inland port/jetty close to the site. Additionally, coal storage areas are being built to store up to 10 days’ worth of fuel, in the event of any hiccups in delivery. Charging on units of power produced, assuming the plant is able to keep up with the minimum utilisation requirement; the project is expected to yield up to USD120.0m/year of net-of-tax profits. " - Kenanga Research

I m puzzled by the large usage of coal..... I ton of coal can only produce 1,370 KWH of electricity ?

I have an interesting question. How did Kenanga get the profit figure ? From Steven the CFO ?

"With the completion and full commissioning of the power plant, the group is slated to receive associate profit of c.RM150m/year for the next 25 years. Further, the plant is expected to enjoy tax incentives for the first 6 years of operations. This would skew the group’s business portfolio to be mostly energy-based, after recognising the last mile of the power plant's outstanding bill (only 46% billed in 4Q18 results, RM1.02b unbilled as of now, estimated to account for 70% of its total order-book), which should also be a significant boon to the near-term earnings profile. Key risks would be from any hiccups, which may delay the completion of the project until after its Nov 2020 deadline. We are less optimistic on the group’s property segment as footfall and tenants appear to be only picking up slowly despite its strategic location. " - Kenanga Research

"To provide some colour, the plant is designed to generate an output of 2 x 600 MW under a build-operate-transfer model after 25 years with the Vietnamese government, with total construction project revenue to JAKS of RM1.89b to be recognised over phases of completion. Currently estimated to be 55% completed, management anticipates that it is able to commission the first of its two turbines possibly by the end of 2019. The second turbine should then be set to be completed 6 months after this. This is ahead of the initial handover deadline to the Vietnamese Government of November 2020. Addressing any contingencies in place to prevent delays, management mentioned that the integral equipments (i.e. turbines, boilers) for the plant are already onsite, with non-foreseeable issues to source smaller components. Building materials for the plant are also easily sourced from local suppliers. Furthermore, CPECC management and supervisors are consistently on the grounds to monitor the progress closely." - Kenanga Research

Icon8888, thanks for the link

Newbie8080,

If you have any doubts on the vietnam ipp or any statements made by me. Please do not jump into conclusion that I have ulterior motives.

I will try to answer your doubts as best as I can.

We can do this nicely.

How would you like to be called foolish when someone trying to get an answer from you ?

I won't like it.

JHDP will be responsible for the loan replayment.

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which is beyond Jaks's ability to exercise as Jaks would need to service USD36mil p.a for the loan taken for Hai Duong.
12/04/2019 3:07 PM

Good to hear that you are not against me. Hope you understand my rationale for adjusting my TP.

Your statement below is incorrect. It was agreed that the 10% option shall be done at costs + holding costs.

I have clearly written that in my article.

If you are taking me seriously, please read me articles carefully.

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CPECC would be foolish to let go of the 10% stake at just USD60 mil(DK66 estimation).
It should be worth more than USD150mil(my estimation), which is beyond Jaks's ability to exercise as Jaks would need to service USD36mil p.a for the loan taken for Hai Duong.

optimus getting more hostile..... Why is he happy if the price cannot reach Rm1 ? What has he got to gain from being right ?

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optimusprime88 i cut my ball if reach rm1
let wait n see who laugh to the end

Ricky Kiat, thanks

probability, thanks for telling

His financial distress can be seen from his behaviour on i3, worrying and scary.

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probability though he had hanged from suicide...he was diagnosed with cancer a few years back..its likely this factor coupled with financial distress caused what had happened

I m a poor market timer, I didn't expect the stock to crash to RM0.40. Predicting TP for different timelines is even harder.

Value of Jaks lies in its power plant. It won't be completed in 6 to 12 months time and it is difficult to predict what will happen during this period.

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SarifahSelinder x payah remove jz bagi timeline to achieve the various FV mcm in 6 mths in 12 mths or whn turbine is installed

I should have known the optimus incident much earlier .......

I m now pondering whether to remove my TP totally. But it is already all over the place..... How?

Newbie8080,

I know you don't like me, so i won't expect anything nice from you.
If you can't accept the rationale behind the changing for my TP and insist on calling it a downgrade. So be it.

If you don't care about people's money or life. Nobody will care about you either.

I made my choice. I wish for no harm caused by me.

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newbie8080 @ DK66

Bro, I thought I'm having a dream when I read this statement.
I actually slap my face twice.

From TP of RM7 to RM10, all the way down to RM2.50.

It's a massive downgrade.

You either know the true intrinsic value of Jaks Hai Duong Power Plant or you don't.
If you do, you should standby your principle.

It's sad to see your moving goal post.

It reminds me of the analyst from IB.
These individuals are spineless, provide a FV and when there is some changes to external factor they would revise FV every 3-6 months.
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Posted by DK66 > Apr 12, 2019 9:05 AM | Report Abuse

After reading the optimus incident, I realised that there may well be people who just take whatever coming his way. Desperate to Huat and choose the biggest airplane to embark without knowing the destination of the flight.

Because of this, I m revising my TP to a more sensible RM2.5 and slowly upgrade the TP alone the way. I do not want a repeat of optimus tragedy.

So, YES, my TP is RM2.50 for now. Please take note.
12/04/2019 10:56 AM

Aseng, you are a good man.

You don't have Jaks but still advise people here to take the right approach.

I agree with Aseng. I should tone down a bit. Sometimes mathematical illustrations to show sensitivity analysis maybe misconstrued.

Maybe it is never a good idea to give TP on i3.

This will force the readers to read and digest information presented to them.

That was why initially I was reluctant in stating my TP but eventually i was persuaded.

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Aseng When you teaches people to make money, you should also teach people to promote their gain.
You can't escape the responsibility if there is tragedy.
Share with us your home work, not keep promoting sky and heaven which you yourself can't guarantee
12/04/2019 9:48 AM

After reading the optimus incident, I realised that there may well be people who just take whatever coming his way. Desperate to Huat and choose the biggest airplane to embark without knowing the destination of the flight.

Because of this, I m revising my TP to a more sensible RM2.5 and slowly upgrade the TP alone the way. I do not want a repeat of optimus tragedy.

So, YES, my TP is RM2.50 for now. Please take note.

Thanks, I think I kind of got an idea already.
That keeps me wonder whether i3 is a right setup.
i3 can help but it can kill too
Is there anyway to make information on i3 more trustworthy ?

I always advise those around me not to join i3 if you do not have basic investing knowledge. There are more evils than angles in i3. You will only get to know what they want you to know. The dark side is always hidden from you. It is always too late to find out the truth, in this case, it costs a life....... Who is to blame ?

Making money from stock market is a daunting task. In short term, it is a zero sum game. Your winnings is someone's losses. You are fighting against the insiders, the manipulators, the fund managers, and the smart investors. To win the game, you need to outsmart these people. Are you smart enough ?

If you hate to read books, there are some sifu here willing to teach for a fees. Investing in your knowledge is a lot cheaper than leaning from the market itself.

Whatever information sourced from i3 should not be fully trusted until you have verified the information independently with trusted sources.

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i3Value DK66, that was a dark episode in i3. Google and find out. Story related to former major shareholder of Jaks

It would be nice to take a photo there to show how you made your millions

I m still thinking of a way to best present my case without attracting too much criticism.

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Ricky Kiat bro dk66, vietnam too far also (^-^)

anyway, can u elaborate how jaks can reach Rm7 ?
after start give big dividend every years?
11/04/2019 10:19 PM

my TP is RM7, only meaningful to meet at Hai Duong power plant.

We will meet at RM7

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Icon8888 I am actually quite keen to meet up with DK66

Oh, I havent joined i3 then

deMusangking, Remember to buy me Starbucks.

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me too veri thkful to DK, bekos i bot this counter mainly due to him!!! at current price, me can have free Starbucks!!!!! but i aim for more as i believe DK!!!!

haha

Seriously ?? WOW ! Why ? for losing an argument in i3?

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(What an auspicious name he chose. The previous one hanged himself. I am not joking)

If you buy at RM1.50, you need RM7 to make 400%. But if you buy at RM0.75, at RM3.50 you already made 400%.

Only for now, when Jaks is RM2.50, the natural gearing ratio will be 1.34 with zero premium.

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But warrant mcm carries more risks

I suggested switching only for reason of safety not more profitable.

Agree, I have hinted this in my article, controlling shareholders should have more than 95% of warrants by now.

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They are cornered stock. Limited downside , if promoters wants to sustain they can easily do it

That is why I didn't want to reveal my target price now. If I do it when Jaks is RM4, then everyone will think it is sensible.

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deMusangking RM7???? hypothetical fig or a reality?
11/04/2019 8:27 PM

You think I m joking ?