There might be another final wave after 4:30, hopefully hibiscus can stand strong at rm1

lol, shake shake shake, non-stop shaking

wao, the selling is so aggressive today. like main objective is to bring it back down to rm 1 only

1.48 TP for hibiscus, still got almost 50c to climb more.haha.
Anyway, i never really able to read the DBS report on hibiscus. Is the 1.48 exclude sabah eor or already include into the TP as well?

Still waiting at 1.01 or another top up.come on...

KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 19): Valuation of Malaysian equities is far from being stretched despite its gains, but recovery in domestic consumption, oil prices and external demand could be the key tailwinds, according to AllianceDBS Research.

The benchmark index — which has chalked up a 4.6% gain since window dressing activities in December — has continued its uptrend to gain another 1.6% in the first half of January, amid a global equity rally.

The index last closed at 1,821.60 points.

In a strategy note today, AllianceDBS said although trading at CY18 PE of 16.1 times, which is slightly ahead of the historical mean, Malaysian equities’ valuation is far from being stretched amid a global rally.

AllianceDBS targets the FBM KLCI to end at 1,870 this year, supported by sustained growth in electronic and electric (E&E) exports, loan growth uptick and interest rate hike, global oil and gas capital expenditure (capex), as well as improved private consumption.

Exports of E&E goods — which constituted 38% of Malaysia’s exports — are expected to sustain its growth this year amid synchronised global growth, albeit at a slower pace due to a high-base effect in 2017.

“We prefer the electronic manufacturing services (EMS) sector to the technology sector as a proxy for E&E export growth, due to the former’s lower valuation and higher earnings growth potential,” AllianceDBS said.

Loan growth uptick and interest rate hike post-14th general election is expected to anchor a 10.1% earnings growth for the banking sector.

And as loan growth typically lags the underlying economic growth by two to three quarters, better traction is expected in the second half of 2018 (2H18).

Bank Negara Malaysia’s more hawkish stance will also benefit banks in general, when it hikes its policy rates, which is expected after the general election.

“Brent crude oil prices continue to gain further ground in 2018 and this is a major boost not only to government’s finances, but can also act as re-rating catalyst for the ringgit, and oil and gas stocks,” the research house said.

With improved sentiment within the global oil and gas value chain, the industry's capex spending is poised to recover at a gradual pace going into 2018.

On the domestic front, private consumption has shown steady improvement since bottoming in third quarter of 2015 (3Q15), as the drag from goods and services tax (GST) eases.

“With general elections due this year, the government will likely keep a lid on the rising cost of living,” AllianceDBS said.

This also translates into a recovery in the domestic discretionary spending in the tourism industry, besides being boosted by further influx of Chinese tourists.

Top picks are Malayan Banking Bhd (target price [TP]: RM10.70), CIMB Group Bhd (TP: RM7.60), Hibiscus Petroleum Bhd (TP: RM1.48), Bumi Armada Bhd (TP: 95 sen), Wah Seong Corp Bhd (TP: RM1.90), SKP Resources Bhd (TP: RM2.50), AirAsia Bhd (TP: RM3.80), and Yong Tai Bhd (TP: RM2.10).

Locomania, good thinking. Might make sense as it is more attractive if PP now than later.

The utilization rate for the fund still not 100% yet coz they are keeping it for Sabah EOR initial consideration 12.5mil USD.
Hibiscs should pay sabah end of april after the purchase completed.

The funds collected by recent PP, is something extra which actually need to pay 12 month and 24 month later.


By the way, for the arab and norway field. Hibiscus not even putting them into the recent investor's slides, dont really think they pay a high attention to it yet.
The only big plan they have is to side track existing well of GUA-P2 and water injection into cook field.
Maybe that's where a an early sum of money required.

And i think sabah eor field enough for hibiscus to busy for few years before moving onto next step

Australia to bear fruits going to be few years time. Not that easy to start a new field just like that. So most likely they might sell to some party on the geological data for a quick fund

In arab? They have field over there? Not australia?

Any reason why production will increase in summer?

Anyway, i just repost what i calculate before for sharing:



The souring project and Gas lift installation give extra 19bbl of oil per day.
19 bbl x 92 days = 1748bbl

Q3 2017 total oil sales 246,132 bbl + 1748 bbl = 247,880bbl.
(And Q3 is actually the quarter with llowest production online time of 70%, so hibiscus will actually able perform better than this)

Q4 = 247,880 bbl * 60.58 USD/bbl = 15.02 mil USD
(to conservative hence using lowest brent price for nov)

As compare to Q3, 246,132 bbl * 51.54 USD/bbl = 12.69 mil USD
So there is a QOQ increase of revenue of 18.4% by just oil sales alone.

And some other stuff that i actually havent factor in:

1. Strengthening of MYR
(I actually not sure what conversion rate they are actually trading at, calculation show they are using 4.5 in Q3 which seems not making sense for me hence i remove it out from my calculation).

2.The brent price at November.
(Average price is actually at 62.77 USD/bbl, which brings about 247,880 bbl * 62.77 USD/bbl = 15.56 mil USD, 22.7% QOQ increase)

3. Anasuria online time
(Q3 is actually worst online production time of 70% due to offshore turnaround project from mid Sep to Mid Oct, so if hibiscus able to keep online time more than 70% then all these QOQ increase will increase at even higher rate)

thanks oozie75 for sharing the JP Morgan report, very detail and informative.

If all those lazy to read, just go and read the slides from hibiscus.
Basically a summary on JP morgan report.

Anyway, might be a stupid question.
Hibiscus actually to obtain 91mil MYR / 23.12mil USD, but the payment to obtain Sabah is only 12.5mil USD (upon completion date), 5mil (12 months later), 5mil (24 months later).

So why they get PP to get fund so early? shouldn't hibiscus just collect enough for 12.5mil then wait till share price up and pp again to get more funds?

locomania, haha. everybody who still holding this stock ask the same question.
But if we all know about this then we all are billionaire already.

ah, should have queue at rm1 this morning.
Miss chance to top up eh

rm 1 break.....

Dont ever guess the market.
When everybody expect another drop on friday, it up.
When oil price up, OG stock down.

Pbb estimate another 40c added after sabah eor deal completed. And that one is not considering the recent high oil price

Now is time to hold, bite teeth and dont look at the price till end of apr

Okla, fill up last tranche of fuel (pp). Can all speed ahead go obtain sabah eor nd grow further

lol, this armada really something.
When all up, only move a bit.
When all down, it down more than others.

okla, guess to prevent myself having heart attack is to off the laptop and stop looking at it.

@DamienCYH, agree with u.
I doing long term one, holding hibiscus since 42c.
But still all this roller coaster in KLCI is pretty scary.
Really giving heart attack on all these roller coaster ride.

See now back to neutral and maybe back to green.
Too scary till i also not have enough guts to top up at rm1.

Congratz to those pick the falling blade this morning.
one day 6-7% earning, lol

Malaysia market really a playground for all foreign funds.

KLCI diving and keep diving deeper.

wah, gonna test rm 1 - the psychological barrier?

klci deep dive again, looks like GE not happening soon

steve, msia og stock not all the time tie with crude oil price.
If it is that easy, then everyday just need to see crude oil price to buy/sell hibiscus.

If u follow hibiscus way before, u can see everyday crude up but hibiscus just silent.
Especially during the era of 40c time.

Everyday check oil price, then look at portfolio and sigh

Call it "habiscus", but queuing to buy...

Revise my calculation after tabulate it properly into excel table:

The souring project and Gas lift installation give extra 19bbl of oil per day.
19 bbl x 92 days = 1748bbl

Q3 2017 total oil sales 246,132 bbl + 1748 bbl = 247,880bbl.
(And Q3 is actually the quarter with llowest production online time of 70%, so hibiscus will actually able perform better than this)

Q4 = 247,880 bbl * 60.58 USD/bbl = 15.02 mil USD
(to conservative hence using lowest brent price for nov)

As compare to Q3, 246,132 bbl * 51.54 USD/bbl = 12.69 mil USD
So there is a QOQ increase of revenue of 18.4% by just oil sales alone.

And some other stuff that i actually havent factor in:

1. Strengthening of MYR
(I actually not sure what conversion rate they are actually trading at, calculation show they are using 4.5 in Q3 which seems not making sense for me hence i remove it out from my calculation).

2.The brent price at November.
(Average price is actually at 62.77 USD/bbl, which brings about 247,880 bbl * 62.77 USD/bbl = 15.56 mil USD, 22.7% QOQ increase)

3. Anasuria online time
(Q3 is actually worst online production time of 70% due to offshore turnaround project from mid Sep to Mid Oct, so if hibiscus able to keep online time more than 70% then all these QOQ increase will increase at even higher rate)

So hibiscus is actually keep growing, quarter report just become nicer and nicer

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/16/banks-raise-oil-price-targets-on-strong-demand-and-opec-output-cuts.html

Worth a read.
Just keep and keep on surfing with hibiscus on strengthening MYR and oil price recovery

Isn't t that an old old news?

Opportunity, haha.
So far hibiscus met all the TP set by PBB.
And that one set few months ago.
DBS set 1.40, still waiting for PBB to revise its TP based on the new oil price.

Coming QR will be increasing.
Catalyst is there, free warrant and Sabah EOR.

So just hold and wait only

now is the time again to see who is swimming naked

wao, the operator damn good. Throwing when oil price up to 70 usd/bbl.

surprisingly 70usd/bbl have less effect on msia og stock.
So interesting

u wan to know who? haha
just check the market buzz on top, haha.
They are selling non-stop to press the price eh

wah, hibiscus everyday push now. so scary eh

Lol, another OG all green armada red closing day

Wah, why suddenly jump, still waiting durian runtuh at 1.02 eh....

hmm, market sentiment going down again.
Looks like only uncle aunty buying at beginning because of oil price surge hype.
KLCI like want to do diving again like yesterday

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/hleresearch/144038.jsp

Haha, market is so excited because of brent reach 70usd at one point,even though it close the same like yesterday.

Good for hibiscus,haha

Now i learnt how the info being manipulated in market.
Brent did break 70 usd for short moment but didnt stand firm and back to 69 now, but entire world just capture that peak moment and spread rumours on it.
Really need to do homework well and listen less to rumours

hmm. still holding my bullet.
Tomorrow is friday and market is a bit in bad sentiment. Like more chance to collect.

And most important need to see oil price tonight.

Opex cut is good, but dont forgot the shale player havent come in yet. when they make a move then the sweet balance of supply and demand now might affected.

Flex1234, u are really pushing hard to promote hibiscus, haha.
Your entry price quite high?

Anyway, looks like got some funds crossing blade.

Fun to see one side attack,one side defense. Then swap around and around again.
See which side will win today

OG stock up too much so need some correction.
Plus also time for traders to take profit.
Then now combine with news of PP, haiz...

Private placement will cause share dilution.
More shares created but the shares in our/investor's hand no change.
Same thing like duit pisang, keep on printing more and more but the value (gold) inside the vault is same, thus the duit pisang is worthless.

Of course, it is not all the time like that depends on what their purpose of pp is. In case of hibiscus, it is for good, to expand.

But in msia market, usually people treat it as negative due to share dilution

my god, wonder can withstand at rm1 or not.
Physiological support leh....

wah, today klci like diving. Keep on going down

the only green among the red?

Looks like correction for og stock after booming last week.