Leo, forecast for AJS is Rm250 million PAT, therefore u should understand the meaning......

Soonadol, yes there is a preparation to resume HRC production as its finalizing the cooperation again with Danieli as a out of court settlement.

YKW95, what website u want to see?regarding which part?

Today Southern Steel just announce price increase wef tomorrow for rebar is 2100/2250/mt

Today Southern Steel just announce price increase wef tomorrow for rebr is 2100/2250/mt

MR CHOW CHONG LONG (a company director) was dealing with company shares on 14-Jul-2017.
This Mr.Chow is Group MD of SSteel Berhad, there will be good dividend/profit coming out for the FY2017 as he choose this period of time exercising his right for Executive Scheme Option.

cth91, make a guess then as which forum r u in now? today bar price just went up to RM2080/mt

Leo, true enough on the impairment and collection of scrap in the north. even AJ is doing the same thing where Masteel is sapu scarp in the central and south for their ramming up in production as AJ stop providing the pig irons to them already therefore need to sapu as much as possible.

Bro OOMMGG & Warn3r, pls take EPS around 6(last Qtr) and PE is 7, then u should know the figures. But still this is a good counter to hold on until next 2 years should be around Rm2.80 if investor wanted to be patient.

Leo, not only interesting phenomenon, they are exporting wire rod, billet and rebar in a staggering pace to SEA therefore they will be a shortage in the market as others local mill cannot produce enough to cater recent surge of demands and indirectly price will be uptrend starting last 2 weeks, pricing for rebar now is RM2050 compare to last week of Rm1950 (billet is Rm1900 last week, now is rm2050 this week, billet is getting more expensive than rebar)on the average and the situation will be like this until August then boom again ,pricing will be above Rm2300 per MT.

Just met with top guy, confirm Msia now is the cheapest rebar and wire rod in world ,when export out is Rm120/mt more profit and its still cheap compare by foreign counterpart. So u decide who is making profit at the moment....

OOMMGG, this information is classified at the moment and its not for me to divulge it, during 1st Qtr there is already oversell of stock there ,as only delivered during April and May, only Jun will show the sales is soft and the pricing drop until 1950/mt from the previous of 2250/mt during April.
This coming August will see much activities in rebar and wirerod as market is influx with projects ,as election is quite near to be announced.

Leo, u r right on this, with AJS average then LionInd will be poor in NP.....

Good to buy as low as possible ............

Warn3r, SSteel mgmt. already have the last Qtr covered from the 3rd Qtr spill over profit, therefore should be around ur estimation, PE will be readjusted to 7 or 8 by bankers. No worries as there is upsurge for rebar soon as the export to Asean country looks promising to local mills especially Vietnam market. To make the matter worst, they may create shortage as exports can earn more money than domestic demands, in short SSteel will make more money this year as prices on the uptrend already.
I m more worried with the other 2 mills bad blood that will create negative impacts by prices war. Recently AJS fixed the rebar prices for 6 mths lock in certain amount of orders at cost price of other steel mills.

Hi Warn3r, Last Qtr is good ,mainly due to high pricing and good margin but last Qtr is low margin low volume therefore unable to be too optimistic but overall should be good by hitting the target set by Tan Sri...

EPS should be around max 30cents as last Qtr slow due to projects delay and long holidays.......

Solaris, which part of China were you in? I was in China for almost 10 years before coming back to Msia.

Leo, you are right, Solaris should be from Amsteel then to Eastern Steel as he is profound in BF, slab & HRC.

Btw, Solaris if you are in China now, I can roughly know which steel mill you are from already.....

You said IF already but the fundamental is that the company must have good business sense, in this HTVB there is none at the moment ,as there is no indication from the top management for the last 3 years by keeping quiet???? Plse look at the Dividend given for the last 3 years, it shows the sincerity of the MANAGEMENT already

ykw95,do u know that the mgmt. of SSteel is already on holidays since last week as they have hit profit target already, so why you need to worry so much, as long you keep it for 2 years you will see the growth of it.

Hi Solaris, then u should know better as u are involve in this steel mill operation, therefore no point on harping HTVB as u should know better that in short term there wont be too much beneficiary to HTVB within 2 years. Furthermore IRB case is still ongoing, its very hard to forecast their next course of expansion plan.......

solaris80,even though HRC is just a portion of production line but actual usage is rebar and HDW for the ECRL therefore it will not beneficiary to HTVB in short term ,only after 3years once Alliance Steel completed its Billet BF, only then will benefit HTVB.
Leo & I was from the Big 3 steel mills and we know how they works in term of operation, you cannot assume that they are the same thing while production cannot be change as you like, changing production line is tedious and time consuming.......

Sorry to inform ,that HTVB has integrity problem unless the Chinese Conglomerate take over for the ECRL projects or else its just smokes in the air.........puff and puff without actual happening......
Therefore reality is AJ is doing export now to Asean country rather than HTVB still need 2 years to do so.

1MDB chain reaction sparks market disorientation, overall market is bearish.............., if u r an mid long term investor just let it be, if short term u better RUN.......:)

Some one is trying very hard to push down the price but too bad, it wont work as they forgot who is the largest shareholder

YKW 95,
More to come

Hi Leo, to be in fact AJR already export to Vietnam for the last 2 months already

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sKIUlr6Vxcg/WS6N6WE6WsI/AAAAAAAAAqU/KCV8FceZ5zwLuCtRTGcb16avo12nm6VRwCLcB/s320/PBT.png

Price of the rebar have fallen(Y16-Y40) from Rm2250 to Rm2000 (within a month of end April to end May), estimated around 10%, therefore efficient one will sustain the profit as iron ore dropped by 15% during this period of time therefore no impact but for the inefficient one cannot sustain this level of pricing as its considered cash loss after deducting all finance and operation cost.

Yes Wan, the strongest and efficiency one shear some margin to kill off the weakest and seriously inefficiency one. But still the profit is still for efficiency one, as overall raw material drop about 15% for them therefore have margin to play around this time. This is a bad blood between them ,10 years ago when the efficiency one just started out and inefficiency one start throwing price that almost kill them but due to economic downtown only stop this blood bath....... Hopefully this time wont be so obvious.

Hi Wan, as I have said that some millers wanted to finish off less wanted competitor to recovered from previous losses, therefore there will be a margin war between millers for the 2nd & 3rd Qtr, Indirectly EPS for AJR will drop on the 2nd & 3rd and only will recover on the 4th Qtr onwards. Total EPS for AnnJoo should be around Rm0.45 is what I mean for FY2017.

Leo, ur estimation of EPS is definitely on the right track but only the market is stabilise due to some millers want to finish off the less wanted competitor to recover from losses(落井下石），therefore the 2nd and 3rd Qtr will be on the down trend for the EPS. Most probably will be around 0.45cents EPS will be for AnnJoo. By year end the TP should be around RM4.75 instead of above RM5 on the conservatives side.

YKW, Be patient as normally Tan Sri will be in only after last Qtr 2017 by this end June then u see the uptrend............

At least 3.50 for this round, only by year end will reached RM4 and above becoz of the soft environment in the steel market.

Reiterate OP with higher TP of RM4.30 (from RM3.75). Post adjustment to earnings, we reiterate OUTPERFORM call with a higher TP of RM4.30 (from RM3.75) on unchanged 10.0x FY18E PER. Given ANNJOO’s position as the most cost efficient upstream steel player, we believe our 10.0x valuation is justifiable as it is at the higher end of MASTEEL’s FY10-12 PER of 7-10x when steel prices were relatively stable. Furthermore, we note that ANNJOO’s dividend policy of up to 60% indicates an attractive FY17E dividend yield of 6.3% coupled with their optimum capacity size (650k MT of rebar capacity/annum vs annual local rebar demand of c.4.0m MT) in the existing market allows them to constantly operate at an 80-90% utilization rate.

Dear All, pls want to comment pls do it in a prudence way and its best to use ur real name as to prove urself to be genuine and not cyber warrior who spread false information to gain more profit by stabbing others.（损人利己）We are here to make more money instead of arguing and should be more positive to benefit more people by giving fair judgement eg: LeoTing.
AJR is suitable for mid to long term players not contra kaki therefore those who can hold , plse do and those who cant pls do not influences other by giving negative information.

As Leo have already mentioned that AJ have both Blast Furnace & Electric Arc Furnace, either one breaks down or maintenance will not affect production, only cost of productions will be impacted as using iron ore or scrap is the 2 major different set of cost factors where AJ deems whichever is lower

Thanks Leo for the advice, should hold on AnnJoo as new prospect will come out soon as new FSP(Foreign Strategic Partners) announcement by 3rd Qtr.....Hehehehe